College Football Thread 2019/2020

[Synopsis]

Florida -6 second half. If they clean up the turnovers, should be a good play.

 

[Synopsis]

Week 2 college total 15-1-7 +7.5 units (slightly rounded down) below only shows 14-1-4 because I didn't write out the 1 extra loss north Carolina cost me yesterday, or the 2 extra that Maryland cost me today. I also didnt add the buy out on maryland below. Just grouped all of Maryland crap together in one line. The sht with penn state below also payed reduced odds because penn states leg of it pushed.

Win - Georgia -23.5, cal -4, Clemson -16.
Loss - North Carolina +3.5
Push - Iowa - 1
Loss - Maryland grouping this together, lost 1.4 units
Win - Sht penn state -7, Oklahoma -13.5, sdsu -6.5
Win - Ucf -9
Win - Florida - 7 hook, wow, miracle win here.
Loss - Duke, usc, Iowa spread parlay +596
Loss - Usc -4
Win - Army -17
Win - Tcu - 2.5
Win - Oklahoma -23.5
Win - Duke -6.5
Win - Penn -6.5 live line.
Win - Bama/south Carolina over 58.5
Win - ND - 10 second half
Win - Army -7 second half
Win - Akron/Central Michigan over 23 second half
Win - Florida -6 second half

I got lucky to be honest, it wasn't a great day. The Florida miracle, and both army lines only because of a missed pta, or they both would have pushed. Between them i was about to be 1-2-1, but ended up 4-0 on them. Pretty disappointed in maryland. Could have been a huge day without their mishap. Disappointed in Iowa and usc. Glad I got Iowa early, so it pushed, but still was a disappointment. I've had bad luck in games that were delayed so far, like that game was, so I should keep that in mind in the future.

 

[Synopsis]

Whoops, I can't edit the above, so I'll put it here. The units is actually closer to +7 instead of +7.5. I didn't account for 2 of the plays lost cost a extra .2 juice each when I wrote the above, but I just did the exact math for the day. So it's 7, not 7.5.

 

[ribbybruno]

Nothing like going 8-8 after another wild Saturday. I learned a lot about a bunch of teams and how good they actually are.

 

[Synopsis]

That's the risk of betting the first few weeks of the season, it'a a mixed bag of teams either solidifying that they are legit or not. That Maryland game makes me sick though. They got 2 turnovers in the last few minutes to set them up in the redzone. The first was on the 4! And they got stuffed 4 straight plays. Then they got another one right after after like the 10 or 15, and stuffed 4 plays in after row again. Ridiculous.

Nothing like going 8-8 after another wild Saturday. I learned a lot about a bunch of teams and how good they actually are.

 

[Synopsis]

Early teaser before lines move
Ucf -1, tcu +1, Baylor -16.5

Really like this one and I suspect every other email of these lines are at least a whole point under what they will be at kickoff.

Also adding Houston +3.5 early, I expect it to be bet down below 3 by this time tomorrow. I like getting points in what should be a high scoring game. I think it's about time Houston started to click a little better, and they did play better this last week.

I don't see many lines I'm interested in at the moment. Will have to research deep into some of them during the week.

 

[ribbybruno]

First Impressions - Take a look at these games

Thursday -

Tulane (-5) @ Home vs Houston - Cougars haven't shown me much. Green Wave improved. Home game

Friday -

USC (+4) @ Home vs Utah - I will take Trojans every time a dog at home

Saturday -

Texas (-6) Vs Okla. St - Longhorns may not cover but they owe the Cowboys one

Stanford (+10) @ Home Vs Oregon - Cardinals pretty decent at home as dog

Wisconsin (-3.5) vs Michigan - Harbaugh better stop Taylor

Coastal Carolina (-17) @UMass - going to bet against Minutemen all year

Auburn (+3.5) @ Texas A & M - Aggies good at home Tigers run defense pretty good

Pitt (+12.5) vs UCF - like this dog here - Maybe Narduzzi coaches the best game of his life

BYU (+6.5) @ Home vs Washington - Will we see another miracle in Utah?

TCU (-9.5) vs SMU - Horned Frogs convinced me with a beat down of the Boilermakers
Florida St (-6.5) vs Louisville - Athletes?

Appalachian St (+3) @ North CArolina - Mack Brown better prepare

Miami (-30.5) vs Central Michigan - Hurricanes run all day 52-7

Mississippi St (-6.5) vs Kentucky - payback in Starksville

Mizzou (-9.5) vs South Carolina - another payback game

Kansas (+5) vs West Virginia - I believe in Les Miles

New mexico (-4) vs New Mexico St. -Lobos much better team

Arkansas (-20.5) vs San Jose St - like the Hogs here

Georgia (-14) vs Notre Dame - Bulldogs too much for Irish

Colorado St (+9) @ Home vs Toledo - Rockets got whipped already by Kentucky?

Washington St (-18.5) vs UCLA - Night game blowout

San Diego St (+4) @ Home vs Utah St-Aztecs 3-0 ?

some games i just wrote what i thought

 

[Synopsis]

Tulane (-5) @ Home vs Houston - your reasoning is exactly why I like the otherside. Houston seems "due" for an outburst, and it's a semi big game for tulane. Seems like a let down game for the home side. I also feel that this would be a very easy game to buy out of because let's say tulane goes up early, the line would not really change at all, while if Houston gets the ball first, which is more likely since they are away, and scored first, you would be ahead of the line and could buy out on any tulane score there after if you felt the need to bail.

USC (+4) @ Home vs Utah - tough call. I would be heavy on usc if it was before the last game. Very disappointing game. The key here is if usc can pass on utah, which I believe they can. If they indeed can they could have a huge, huge game.

Texas (-6) Vs Okla. St - I kind of like it.

Stanford (+10) @ Home Vs Oregon - ehh.... Stanford has looked terrible so far, and been blasted so far. Not sure if 10 will get it here.

Wisconsin (-3.5) vs Michigan - scary game, I'm avoiding this one. Michigan has to win this game for any chance this year, does that mean they will actually perform though?

Coastal Carolina (-17) @UMass - UMass is a mess, but they have to get a few wins... don't they?

Auburn (+3.5) @ Texas A & M - another tough game here. I'm not sold on the auburn qb, but they have the defence for sure. If I bet it, I'd be on auburn if over +3. As for the qb, sometimes you don't have to have amazing stats to win. He has a lot of promise if he stays healthy and keeps learning.

Pitt (+12.5) vs UCF - I bet this line goes over 13. I think it opened low because of the game with Penn state. I think ucf is better than Penn though. I think ucf could put up 40 points plus.

BYU (+6.5) @ Home vs Washington - Washington was amazing last week. The final line doesn't show it so much because Washington shut it down early. Washington has to win the game, byu doesnt.

TCU (-9.5) vs SMU - best db unit in college perhaps. They have good run defence too though. I expect smu to perform under their average in both, and expect tcu to be on par for theirs. I like the play, but I love it if it goes to 9 flat.

Florida St (-6.5) vs Louisville - I think I'm done on Florida state for the rest of the year, haha. On paper, talent wise, fsu should win by double digits easily, 20 plus matter of fact.... but.... they don't perform up to their talent level.

Appalachian St (+3) @ North CArolina - I never bet against App state. I will likely pass on this game, but honestly I think nc cover this.

Miami (-30.5) vs Central Michigan - miami needs all the style points they can get.

Mississippi St (-6.5) vs Kentucky - tough to call because we can't know if Kentucky will be down from last week, or if it will boost them to follow through more, could be a close game, or a blow out by miss state depending on that.

Mizzou (-9.5) vs South Carolina - mizzou has looked good after week 1. South Carolina is a bit bruised up from last week.

Kansas (+5) vs West Virginia - I like les, and would have bet this but wvu looked good this last week out of nowhere. That leads you to think maybe they aren't bad, and mizzou just had a fluke game week 1, before they blew wvu out of the water.

New Mexico (-4) vs New Mexico St. - agree with that

Arkansas (-20.5) vs San Jose St - I like it under 21

Georgia (-14) vs Notre Dame - hard to know how good the Irish are, Georgia hasn't really performed as great on offense as I figured they would so far, but their defence will be tough for ND to handle

Colorado St (+9) @ Home vs Toledo - I'd have to look more into this one to have a valid opinion.

Washington St (-18.5) vs UCLA - UCLA are pretty bad this year, and Washington state has no problem with keeping the pedal to the floor.

San Diego St (+4) @ Home vs Utah St - sdsu is usually under rated, at least to me. Tough game to cap. Utah state has the advantage on both offensive and defensive lines in my eyes and that may be enough for them to cover. I'm never surprised when sdsu upsets someone, but they will let you down out of the blue also.

 

[ribbybruno]

Tulane (-5) @ Home vs Houston - your reasoning is exactly why I like the otherside. Houston seems "due" for an outburst, and it's a semi big game for tulane. Seems like a let down game for the home side. I also feel that this would be a very easy game to buy out of because let's say tulane goes up early, the line would not really change at all, while if Houston gets the ball first, which is more likely since they are away, and scored first, you would be ahead of the line and could buy out on any tulane score there after if you felt the need to bail.

USC (+4) @ Home vs Utah - tough call. I would be heavy on usc if it was before the last game. Very disappointing game. The key here is if usc can pass on utah, which I believe they can. If they indeed can they could have a huge, huge game.

Texas (-6) Vs Okla. St - I kind of like it.

Stanford (+10) @ Home Vs Oregon - ehh.... Stanford has looked terrible so far, and been blasted so far. Not sure if 10 will get it here.

Wisconsin (-3.5) vs Michigan - scary game, I'm avoiding this one. Michigan has to win this game for any chance this year, does that mean they will actually perform though?

Coastal Carolina (-17) @UMass - UMass is a mess, but they have to get a few wins... don't they?

Auburn (+3.5) @ Texas A & M - another tough game here. I'm not sold on the auburn qb, but they have the defence for sure. If I bet it, I'd be on auburn if over +3. As for the qb, sometimes you don't have to have amazing stats to win. He has a lot of promise if he stays healthy and keeps learning.

Pitt (+12.5) vs UCF - I bet this line goes over 13. I think it opened low because of the game with Penn state. I think ucf is better than Penn though. I think ucf could put up 40 points plus.

BYU (+6.5) @ Home vs Washington - Washington was amazing last week. The final line doesn't show it so much because Washington shut it down early. Washington has to win the game, byu doesnt.

TCU (-9.5) vs SMU - best db unit in college perhaps. They have good run defence too though. I expect smu to perform under their average in both, and expect tcu to be on par for theirs. I like the play, but I love it if it goes to 9 flat.

Florida St (-6.5) vs Louisville - I think I'm done on Florida state for the rest of the year, haha. On paper, talent wise, fsu should win by double digits easily, 20 plus matter of fact.... but.... they don't perform up to their talent level.

Appalachian St (+3) @ North CArolina - I never bet against app state. I will likely pass on this game, but honestly I think nc cover this.

Miami (-30.5) vs Central Michigan - miami needs all the style points they can get.

Mississippi St (-6.5) vs Kentucky - tough to call because we can't know if Kentucky will be down from last week, or if it will boost them to follow through more, could be a close game, or a blow out by miss state depending on that.

Mizzou (-9.5) vs South Carolina - mizzou has looked good after week 1. South Carolina is a bit bruised up from last week.

Kansas (+5) vs West Virginia - I like les, and would have bet this but wvu looked good this last week out of nowhere. That leads you to think maybe they aren't bad, and mizzou just had a fluke game week 1, before they blew wvu out of the water.

New Mexico (-4) vs New Mexico St. - agree with that

Arkansas (-20.5) vs San Jose St - I like it under 21

Georgia (-14) vs Notre Dame - hard to know how good the Irish are, Georgia hasn't really performed as great on offense as I figured they would so far, but their defence will be tough for ND to handle

Colorado St (+9) @ Home vs Toledo - I'd have to look more into this one to have a valid opinion.

Washington St (-18.5) vs UCLA - UCLA are pretty bad this year, and Washington state has no problem with keeping the pedal to the floor.

San Diego St (+4) @ Home vs Utah St - sdsu is usually under rated, at least to me. Tough game to cap. Utah state has the advantage on both offensive and defensive lines in my eyes and that may be enough for them to cover. I'm never surprised when sdsu upsets someone, but they will let you down out of the blue also.

Appreciate all the info! I will be off tomorrow and make picks on all my stuff!

 

[Synopsis]

I'm kind of intrigued by the Syracuse game... they are home against western Michigan and only -5. I think Syracuse is a decent team. They got blew out by Maryland while Maryland were riding high, and blown out by clemson. That clemson game is deceiving though, much like the texas a&m game where on paper a&m lost badly. The fact is is that they played clemson tough, and had stupid mistakes. A lot of dropped balls and such, then clemson pulled away. Seems like big game jitters to me. Why would Syracuse have those jitters this week though? A nice time for a bounce back game where the coaching staff should be using this week for a momentum starter, and confidence boost.

 

[Synopsis]

That sdsu line is growing on me. They have lost to Utah state once, and that was in 1967... they have only played 3 times since 2010, and the closest game was a 27 point win for sdsu. Utah state scored 14 or under in all 3 of those games and sdsu scored 40 or more in each of them. Sdsu have produced more NFL talent also.

I'm not big on comparing things from teams that don't even have a player still on the team from the prior game, but these stats do say that sdsu consistently has had better talent than Utah state has for the last 50 plus years because the stats are so lopsided. 12 to 1 for sdsu, and 27 point wins or higher in the last decade for sdsu. I'd bet that most of the players on these teams parents weren't 3rd born yet last time, and the only time, Utah state beat sdsu.

Utah state is scoring this year, and sdsu have been a little disappointing offensively, but they have been really solid on defence. Utah states weakness is passing defence, and sdsu just happen to be an air raid school, though it has toned down a but. Could be a lot of points in this game but plus points at home with such a definitive history... I'll keep an eye on this one.

 

[ribbybruno]

That sdsu line is growing on me. They have lost to Utah state once, and that was in 1967... they have only played 3 times since 2010, and the closest game was a 27 point win for sdsu. Utah state scored 14 or under in all 3 of those games and sdsu scored 40 or more in each of them. Sdsu have produced more NFL talent also.

I'm not big on comparing things from teams that don't even have a player still on the team from the prior game, but these stats do say that sdsu consistently has had better talent than Utah state has for the last 50 plus years because the stats are so lopsided. 12 to 1 for sdsu, and 27 point wins or higher in the last decade for sdsu. I'd bet that most of the players on these teams parents weren't 3rd born yet last time, and the only time, Utah state beat sdsu.

Utah state is scoring this year, and sdsu have been a little disappointing offensively, but they have been really solid on defence. Utah states weakness is passing defence, and sdsu just happen to be an air raid school, though it has toned down a but. Could be a lot of points in this game but plus points at home with such a definitive history... I'll keep an eye on this one.

Pin your statement on Utah State locker room wall for motivation.

 

[Synopsis]

Could work both ways. I haven't bet it yet, but I'm considering it. Like I said, just the stats shows that they have more talent, historically over a very long time. Given that, and getting points, and at home? Win or lose, that's a very very solid foundation to make a bet on.

Pin your statement on Utah State locker room wall for motivation.

 

[ribbybruno]

Saturday (8-8) E Overall (19-20) -$100(-1.0)


Thursday -


Houston (+5) @ Tulane - I have flipped my reasoning after reading your post and a little research.


Friday -


USC (+4) @ Home vs Utah - Trojans a good dog in Los Angeles


Saturday -
Texas (-6) @ Home vs Oklahoma State - Longhorns owe Cowboys a good payback
Wisconsin (-3.5) @ Home vs Michigan - Taylor runs for the victory!

Coastal Carolina (-17) @ UMASS - Betting against Minutemen all year

Auburn (+3.5) @ Texas A&M - Tigers have a good defense. I like the extra 1/2 point

TCU (-9.5) @ Home vs SMU - Horned Frogs have a good defense to stop Mustangs offense

Miami (-29.5) @ Home vs Central Michigan - run run and run some more

Missouri (-9.5) @ Home vs South Carolina - Roughed up Game****s will have a hard time in Mizzou

Mississippi St (-6.5) @ Home vs Kentucky - Another payback game

Kansas (+4.5) @ Home vs West Virginia - Fun to bet with Les Miles lol

Arkansas (-20.5) @ Home vs San Jose St - Hogs trample Spartans

New Mexico (-4) @ Home vs New Mexico St. - Lobos a better team

Georgia (-14.5) @ Home vs Notre Dame - Bulldogs have more all around athletes

Colorado State (+9) @ Home vs Toledo - Rams a good dog at home

Washington State (-18.5) @ Home vs UCLA - Night game night romp

San Diego State (+4.5) @ Home vs Utah State - good dog

Syracuse (-5.5) @ Home vs Western Michigan - added (like it Synopsis)

Good luck! Bet - 1 unit Each - $100 a game - Let's Gooo!

 

[Synopsis]

I like the majority of these and most likely will be on quite a few of them myself. There are just so many that have good value, that will be easy to buy out of if they get off to a rough start this week. Those are my favorite type of games where you have like a 75 percent chance or so of basically having a free bet, as long as you are watching the live lines.

Saturday (8-8) E Overall (19-20) -$100(-1.0)


Thursday -


Houston (+5) @ Tulane - I have flipped my reasoning after reading your post and a little research.


Friday -


USC (+4) @ Home vs Utah - Trojans a good dog in Los Angeles


Saturday -
Texas (-6) @ Home vs Oklahoma State - Longhorns owe Cowboys a good payback
Wisconsin (-3.5) @ Home vs Michigan - Taylor runs for the victory!

Coastal Carolina (-17) @ UMASS - Betting against Minutemen all year

Auburn (+3.5) @ Texas A&M - Tigers have a good defense. I like the extra 1/2 point

TCU (-9.5) @ Home vs SMU - Horned Frogs have a good defense to stop Mustangs offense

Miami (-29.5) @ Home vs Central Michigan - run run and run some more

Missouri (-9.5) @ Home vs South Carolina - Roughed up Game****s will have a hard time in Mizzou

Mississippi St (-6.5) @ Home vs Kentucky - Another payback game

Kansas (+4.5) @ Home vs West Virginia - Fun to bet with Les Miles lol

Arkansas (-20.5) @ Home vs San Jose St - Hogs trample Spartans

New Mexico (-4) @ Home vs New Mexico St. - Lobos a better team

Georgia (-14.5) @ Home vs Notre Dame - Bulldogs have more all around athletes

Colorado State (+9) @ Home vs Toledo - Rams a good dog at home

Washington State (-18.5) @ Home vs UCLA - Night game night romp

San Diego State (+4.5) @ Home vs Utah State - good dog

Syracuse (-5.5) @ Home vs Western Michigan - added (like it Synopsis)

Good luck! Bet - 1 unit Each - $100 a game - Let's Gooo!

 

[Synopsis]

Miami -19.5, Washington state -8.5, Ohio state -29.

Getting some teasers in before I do straight spreads, because a lot of the sides I like have juice on the opposite side, like usc, Wisconsin and a handful of others. Hoping I can squeeze a free half point out of some of these by waiting. As for this teaser, pretty straight forward. Miami should be able to cover that whole line, maybe not quite as large as Wisconsin did, but over 30 none the less. Washington state playing a terrible team while at home for less than 3 fgs, and Ohio state who I believe will be going for style points in every game should run this score up, 49 to 17 is the extreme I could see in that game but more likely will be closer to 60 for osu, and closer to 7, 9, 10 for Miami ohio.

 

[Synopsis]

...I didn't want to to bet against app state... but the line went under 3 at 2.5 so I had to. Unc at home, after a loss where their rally was too late for less than a fg against a sun belt team (albeit a very good one for quite some time) is hard to pass on. A lot of the reasoning other than that is exactly why I'm on houston, because the line being what it is makes it really easy to buy out of if needed, so it's not a free bet, but close to it.

 

[Synopsis]

I'm considering a parlay of Wisconsin -2.5, Houston +6, usc +4. Bought to key points, pays 4.67 to 1.

The reasoning is as I've said already about the ease of buying out on any of these, and more importantly, they all play on different days. Today for houston, tomorrow for usc, and the day after for wisconsin. That means you have massive time to hedge if lines move, or simply buy out for even on day 2 pregame if you get cold feet, or buy out for profit on day 3 pregame. Being able to buy the points to these key numbers cheaply and having over a 4.5 to 1 return just leaves so many spots to break even or cash out. Essentially for free. Also, while not so likely, if there are line movements on day 2 or 3, your buy out could overlap and you win it all. Obviously you would hope to not have to buy out, but given the set up of these 3 games, and the low lines, it is an enticing parlay.

 

[RutgersOneTime]

How is everyone feeling about Houston and the over tonight? I feel like Houston should put up points but I feel like that O/U is a little bit scary for my thoughts

 

[Synopsis]

Sharp money has been coming in on houston, and the under the last hour or so. Both of tbose hwve gone down a solid point. My initial thought on the game was over, but not enough there for me to take a shot at it.

How is everyone feeling about Houston and the over tonight? I feel like Houston should put up points but I feel like that O/U is a little bit scary for my thoughts

 

[Synopsis]

Houston first play was a 75 yard touchdown.

 

[Synopsis]

Wow, that second half over under line opened at 30.5, and immediately got bet down to 28.5 in 30 seconds or less. Houston being given 4 points second half looks nice.

 

[Synopsis]

I bit on the over when it hit 28 flat, these teams are scoring tonight and I don't see that stopping. There were 42 points in the first half, and Houston left a td out there, and missed a fg. 28 seems like it could hit a few minutes into the 4th.

 

[Synopsis]

Houston doing their best second half impersonation of Florida state now. Ive never understood why teams that are in full control of games flip what they are doing the second half and go stagnant. Tied game now.

 

[ribbybruno]

Houston doing their best second half impersonation of Florida state now. Ive never understood why teams that are in full control of games flip what they are doing the second half and go stagnant. Tied game now.

i see it is 28-28 in the 4th - let's go