College Football Thread 2019/2020

[Synopsis]

ND looks absolutely terrible on defence. Like possibly the worst in the country. Louisville isnot playing out of their minds but ND is literally sitting there, running away from the ball, and just looking confused. If Louisville were playing alabama, or georgia, anyone with a OK dline, they would have -20 yards right now. Also that 4th and a hair... why wouldn't you qualify sneak there? Your oline was completely dominating. Bad coaching.

 

[Synopsis]

As bad as ND looks, they seemed to get the defence in order after the first few drives. I don't know why they changed what they were doing on offence, they were going down the field easy the first quarter, then abruptly started just running up the middle twice, then short pass, then punt up until that last series. 3 plays in a row were fumbles in the last minute, Louisville, nd, Louisville. If the second half line drops to 7, I'll get on it. It's 7.5 right now, juiced on Louisville. I like the second half over, I'll pull on that

 

[Synopsis]

Well I went 1-2 in that game, but actually made .64 units in total thanks to the parlay. NDs part of the parlay pushed, so it went down to +264 instead of +596.

My take on these teams is... Louisville is Louisville. Enough said.

ND are grossly overrated. They don't utilize their qbs skill set. They played to his skill on 3 drives.. and they scored tds on each of those drives. Picture that... on defence, I think their players are average to below average, and they are so so slow. Multiple times I saw a easy interception while the ball was in the air, yet the defender didn't get there, not even close most of the time. They are terrible tacklers and take bad angles on top of it. They don't seem to have a defensive leader like most teams do. They looked very confused and stationary for much of the game.

Overall Louisville fumbled 5 times, yet ND only managed to win by 18. Their coaching is really really conservative. I'm anxious to see the line vs georgia, if it's 17 or under, I'll be all over it heavy even though I'm pretty disciplined about keeping my bets equal units. I think they will have a tough time at georgia, Michigan, usc, bc, and stanford. They may win 2 of those games, and possibly lose to one of the underdogs in week 9 to 11.

 

[Synopsis]

My early plays I've made already, which is 2 teasers. I tend to do teasers before line movements, where I then bet single spreads.

Wisconsin -23.5, Ohio state -7, Utah -12
Michigan state -6, ucf -0.5, Utah -12 (yeah Utah in both, I know, I know...)

Lines I'm waiting on movement for...
Ohio state will probably drop below -17.
Utah down to 21 I hope.
Clemson down to 17 or under.
Purdue to 6.5
Alabama to 52.
Florida state to 20.
Wyoming to 6.5.
UCF -9.
Auburn to 17 or below.
Washington to 13.

Hoping 4 or so of those lines get there. I'm interested in their first half lines also, and will look at totals around thursday. I did OK thursday, murdered friday, threw a dud yesterday, and barely broke even today. I like the plays I made the last 2 days, but they just didn't work out. Dropped 1.36 units between Sunday and monday, and I'll take that, given the bad luck in those games.

I have a live parlay still from last week. Houston Astros from the 27th, Utah -5.5 vs byu, Georgia -21 vs vandy, and Kansas City Chiefs -3 (bought the hook). All have won except Kansas City which is on the 8th. It's +962. Not sure if I should put that here or not.

Also have Oklahoma -15.5, LA rams +4, and Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 in a +140 teaser. Oklahoma covered that, waiting for the 8th for the other 2.

 

[ribbybruno]

Looking ahead at next week lines. A few look off. Vandy vs purdue line seems strange given their performances. I figured it would be close to a pickem, or -3.5 on the extreme end for purdue, but it's -8.

After Maryland 79 to 0 outburst, they are only -2.5 dogs to Syracuse. I may keep an eye on it for a underdog ml parlay.

Missouri line seems generious given their loss to Wyoming.

Texas a&m line has gone up 3 points since their week 1 game ended. Guess people weren't impressed with them the same way I wasnt.

Speaking of wyoming, they are only laying 6.5 to Texas state.

Nevada laying 23.5 to Oregon seems a bit high. I'll get on it if it goes past 24.

Tulsa only laying 6 to San Jose state.

Yikes, Alabama is -54. That's a lot to cover for a team that doesn't run up the score and won't have any starters in after 1 series in the 3rd quarter. Looks good in a sweetheart teaser though, and 1st half line will probably be a play if it's under 35.

Michigan state line seems off, would be good in a teaser also.

Just some lines that stick out at first glance.

Maryland/Syracuse is definitely a game to keep track on this week.

A&M/Clemson seems high to me - hope it goes to 20 or more

Nevada got lucky to win that game. Totally dominated for 3 quarters. watch out

Washington State ripped M Mex St 58 - 7 - Bama could win with 3rd team 69-10

 

[ribbybruno]

I'm going to add notre damn team total over 36.5. Louisville gave up over 50 points in 7 games last year, 5 in a row to end the season. Book was second only to Tua in percentage last year, and has all but one of his targets back. ND should be able to put up 40 plus here.

Very nice call here! Well done!

 

[ribbybruno]

ND looks absolutely terrible on defence. Like possibly the worst in the country. Louisville isnot playing out of their minds but ND is literally sitting there, running away from the ball, and just looking confused. If Louisville were playing alabama, or georgia, anyone with a OK dline, they would have -20 yards right now. Also that 4th and a hair... why wouldn't you qualify sneak there? Your oline was completely dominating. Bad coaching.

Irish have all new linebackers with not much experience and it showed.

 

[ribbybruno]

Games coming up I am researching -

Friday games -

Wake Forest @ Rice - spread a little high on Demon Deacons (-18.5)
Marshall @ Boise St - Blue vs Green (blue -11)

Going to keep an eye on these lines

Saturday -

Already talked about Syracuse/Marland and A&M/Clem being watched.

Texas @ home vs LSU is a very tempting dog (+6)

Nebraska @ Colorado should be good (Buffaloes +3.5)

Illinois -20 @ UCONN - not sure about this - maybe a good dog

Miami @ North Carolina favored by 5.5 - Tar Heels could dog again

Just a few I am looking at

 

[Synopsis]

That line movement on the Maryland game is pretty wild. It opened at +2.5, and is at -2.5 already. 5 points of movement and it's only Wednesday afternoon...

I watched the Colorado game, and they didn't play well. It was a rivalry game though so take that with a grain of salt. I watched large chunks of the Nebraska game and wasn't impressed with them either.

I wouldn't bet against lsu, at least not until they show some weakness. They were really impressive. They gave up less than 100 yards, total, where Texas gave up almost 350 passing yards alone, to arguably a worst team than Lsu played.

 

[Synopsis]

Colorado and uconn have moved in your favor, but the others have moved the oppoiste. Unc dropped 2 points in just the last hour. If you're going to play those moving, better do it quick before it goes up more.

 

[ribbybruno]

Colorado and uconn have moved in your favor, but the others have moved the oppoiste. Unc dropped 2 points in just the last hour. If you're going to play those moving, better do it quick before it goes up more.

Thanks for info! Appreciate it!

 

[Synopsis]

I'm adding Iowa -19.5. I just don't believe in Rutgers at all, and Iowa should pound the ship out of them.

Tulsa -6. They had terrible rushing stats week 1, but they were going against the best rush defence in the country from last year. San Jose needless to say, don't have a defence like that. Less than a td looks like good value to me.

Pittsburg -4. At home, and just a consistent team over the years in games like this.

Washington -13. Been waiting for this to hit 13, I expect it to go to 14.5 or higher prior to kickoff. I don't thin cal defence can hang with Washington's offense, while on the other side I see Washington being a bit better on defence than cal is on offence.

Leans.... I'm looking at texas a&m, but I'm thinking maybe I'm biased because I don't like clemson. Looking at Utah but hoping it drops to 21. Same with fsu, need it to hit 21. Alabama... I'm just worried that the 4th quarter will be a 7 to 3 type of quarter and Bama win by like 49 to 52 considering how slow Sabin goes mid 3rd quarter to the 3rd of the game, I'd be more confident about a -34.5 first half honestly. Considering a ml parlay of Lsu and wyoming. Also considering a 7 point teaser of alabama, wisconsin, and any of the above leans that fall to key numbers. I'm going to make some 2 team parlays with Chicago Bears tonight with some ncaa picks. My theory on that is if the bears win, which I expect them to, I can buy out if I change my mind on the ncaa picks, or I can live bet the ncaa picks and still make profit regardless if those games aren't looking so great mid game.

Edit... I forgot to mention nebraska. Haven't made the play, but I'm leaning on them hard. Just have a feeling they are going to thump Colorado.

 

[Synopsis]

Scratch the bears parlay idea. I already have them at -3, and it's week 1, so I'm not going to put them in multiples, even though I do think they win tonight. Better spots.

 

[ribbybruno]

Scratch the bears parlay idea. I already have them at -3, and it's week 1, so I'm not going to put them in multiples, even though I do think they win tonight. Better spots.

Rough outing for Bears Offense but a good showing for Packers Defense. I bet Rodgers wasn't expecting that kind of help.

 

[ribbybruno]

Monday (0-1) -100 Overall (6-5) +100 (+1.0)



Friday Night Football -


Going to stay away from Rice after they got shellacked last year at Wake.


I am going to to take Boise St -12 New QB sensation on the way in Hank Bachmeier!


Something about that blue field on a Friday night.


1 Unit - $100

 

[Synopsis]

I have wake and Boise on a money line parlay with the dodgers, just to push the odds to even money. I'm looking at the Boise spread now, as I feel I'm missing something. Blue field, and that 2nd half they had last week, you'd think they would win by 3 tds.

 

[Synopsis]

I'm really liking the boise state team total over 34.5. The over 56.5, and the spread at -12. Those are my plays for tonight. I'm not playing the wake game other than the money line parlay I mentioned above.

 

[Synopsis]

Actually, I'm going to do a sweetheart teaser of wake -9, Boise -2, and Virginia -22. Wake at -19 is too iffy for me, but I like it in single digits, like Boise under a fg, and Virginia should cover the spread even without the tease vs. William and mary.

 

[godblessiraq]

My bets this week: all to win 1 Unit

Boise St.-12.5
Boise St. OVER 57.5
UCLA -7
Maryland/Syracuse OVER 58
UTSA/Baylor OVER 56
Nebraska MONEYLINE -190

 

[Synopsis]

Boise is killing me here... get to red zone or close, and they either turn it over or get a string of penalties. Have like 400 yards still in the 3rd, but only have 14 points.

 

[Synopsis]

450 yards, and they manage 14 points... geez. 2-3 for that game with the parlay and teaser having won. If the Dodgers can win, I'll actually finish 3-3 and make a profit.... a profit so low it doesn't even need to be counted as profit, but the Dodgers are losing as of right now anyway :/

 

[Synopsis]

My final plays for saturday (probably) other than whatever live bets I do.

Iowa -19.5(wish I had waited, it's down to 18 now.
Tulsa -6
Pitt -4
Washington -13
Alabama -35 first half (will double dip this at bol and acr if it drops to 35 there, it's 36 at those 2 atm. It's 35 at Intertops)
Nebraska -4
utah -21 hook
California Washington first half over 20.5 hook

Random +1000 8 team +7 teaser.. Alabama -48, fsu -14, Tulsa +1, Wyoming 0, iowa -11, rams +5.5, cowboys 0, eagles -3

Random +885 14 team money line parlay for giggles.. eagles, ravens,seahawks, cowboys, iowa, osu, utah, miss state, baylor, fsu, ucf, mich state, auburn, washington.

Teasers.
Wisconsin -23.5, Ohio state -7, Utah -12
Michigan state -6, ucf -0.5, Utah -12
Iowa -9.5, fsu -12.5, Alabama -45.
Wake forest -9.5, Boise state, Alabama -45.5 (don't recall making this one, and why I did it at 45.5, but it's in my slip...)

Parlays.
Alabama first half -35, fsu first half -13 @+238
Open +2 parlays at acr on straights.

Last week parlays/teasers still pending.
Houston astros, Utah -5.5, Georgia -21, chiefs -3 @+962 waiting on chiefs
Oklahoma -15.5, rams +4, chiefs +3.5 @+140 waiting on rams and chiefs

 

[ribbybruno]

450 yards, and they manage 14 points... geez. 2-3 for that game with the parlay and teaser having won. If the Dodgers can win, I'll actually finish 3-3 and make a profit.... a profit so low it doesn't even need to be counted as profit, but the Dodgers are losing as of right now anyway :/

Pretty ugly but give Herd credit for playing tough and staying in the game. I am really surprised Boise St. couldn't get it in in the end.

 

[ribbybruno]

My final plays for saturday (probably) other than whatever live bets I do.

Iowa -19.5(wish I had waited, it's down to 18 now.
Tulsa -6
Pitt -4
Washington -13
Alabama -35 first half (will double dip this at bol and acr if it drops to 35 there, it's 36 at those 2 atm. It's 35 at Intertops)
Nebraska -4
utah -21 hook
California Washington first half over 20.5 hook

Random +1000 8 team +7 teaser.. Alabama -48, fsu -14, Tulsa +1, Wyoming 0, iowa -11, rams +5.5, cowboys 0, eagles -3

Random +885 14 team money line parlay for giggles.. eagles, ravens,seahawks, cowboys, iowa, osu, utah, miss state, baylor, fsu, ucf, mich state, auburn, washington.

Teasers.
Wisconsin -23.5, Ohio state -7, Utah -12
Michigan state -6, ucf -0.5, Utah -12
Iowa -9.5, fsu -12.5, Alabama -45.
Wake forest -9.5, Boise state, Alabama -45.5 (don't recall making this one, and why I did it at 45.5, but it's in my slip...)

Parlays.
Alabama first half -35, fsu first half -13 @+238
Open +2 parlays at acr on straights.

Last week parlays/teasers still pending.
Houston astros, Utah -5.5, Georgia -21, chiefs -3 @+962 waiting on chiefs
Oklahoma -15.5, rams +4, chiefs +3.5 @+140 waiting on rams and chiefs

Good luck! Iowa and Tulsa are on my radar.

 

[ribbybruno]

Friday (0-1) -100 Overall (6-6) Even(+0.0)


Results Friday -Boise St. comes up short and doesn't cover in a pretty tough game

Saturday -

Purdue (-7.5) Boilermakers will get bad taste of Nevada loss out of their mouth
North Carolina (+5.5) Tar Heels/Hurricanes decided by 6 points or less last 5 games
Tulane (+17) Green Wave much improved. Double digit underdog after winning by double digits. Maybe a closer game then the numbers predict.
Texas A&M (+16.5) Aggies and Jimbo Fisher come to town. Aggies defense pretty tough. Clemson must play better than last week to win this game.
Kansas (-7) Les Miles and Jayhawks should trounce Coastal Carolina after a wild week on the coast
Texas (+6.5) I have to take Longhorns as a dog in Austin. Great game!
Iowa (-18) Rutgers is not good and this is a laughable spread
Tulsa (-6) I don't think San Jose can win 2 in a row. Can they?
Arkansas(+6) Both teams work out kinks and make it close
Stanford (+3) Trojans lose star QB - let's see what happens
Hawaii (-6.5) Rainbows are rough and tough. Beavers in trouble here.

Good luck all! Let's Gooooo!