I'm -2 units on the season, so maybe my advice is terrible. But here it is:
Carolina +6 - The common narrative is that the Eagles management thought Sanchez is better than Nick Foles anyways, and that Philly won't miss a beat with Foles out. That seems like insanity to me. Sanchez has 5.68 net yards per attempt and a 71.9 career passer rating. In a smaller sample, Foles has 6.71 and 94.2. The move to Sanchez is a downgrade, and this line should be 4.5. Of course, now Cam spends his night running for his life behind Carolina's collection of street free agents and undrafted rookies on the offensive line and my Panthers lose by 30.
Atlanta -1.5 - Uh... the Bucs are the worst team in the NFL by DVOA, and the Falcons are average. There is a bigger difference than 4.5 points here. Plus, I said earlier in the season that going from McCown to Glennon was an upgrade, and that turned out to be true. In Glennon's starts, he threw for 6.05 NYA and a 83.3 passer rating. In McCown's starts? 5.30 & 65.8. So for some reason, the Bucs are turning back to McCown, and this week, I'll be betting against them.
Miami +2.5 - Yep, still ridin' this train. Plus Nick Fairley is out, and interior pass rushers are probably the 2nd most valuable position in the NFL. Calvin Johnson coming back to hobble around as a decoy doesn't scare me.
Dallas -7.5 - Common sentiment among bettors is that this line would be -10.5 if Romo was healthy. A 3 point reduction seems like an over-reaction. Romo will take a cortisone shot, and be good for the game. Bryce Petty (Baylor QB) had the same injury earlier this year, missed 1 week, and then came back fine throwing a great game against the University of Buffalo. Dallas rolls in London. Plus, not even Londoners will cheer for the Jags right?
New York Jets +4.5 - Buy low/sell high pick here. The Jets have a new QB, and that improvement isn't priced in yet. The Steelers look like God's gift to football, but it's a week to week league, and it's harder to pull off that kind of beatdown on the road. Plus, the rout was aided by the refs against the Ravens. Anyone who doesn't believe you get more calls in your home stadium needs to watch last weeks Ravens @ Steelers game. (Note: in my betting pool, I have to take 5 teams. But there might only be 4 plays this week).
And I waffled between picking the Jets and the Saints over and over again. Here's the write up. I've written & rewritten which team I'm taking like 3 times each.
New Orleans -4.5 - Standard spread math here. Home field is worth 3 points (the Saints, maybe 3.5). The mini-bye is worth 0.5 points. Traveling east from the west for a 1PM game is worth about a half a point. 3+0.5+0.5 = 4. So Vegas people think the Saints are only a half a point better than the 49'ers? Are you kidding? The 49'ers rank 20th in DVOA, the Saints 11th. Half a point seems nuts.
I ended up not picking the Saints because I have to pay more vig (1.87 vs. 1.98), I'd be buying high on the Saints and selling low on the 49'ers, and most of the money is coming in on Pittsburgh, so the house will need the Jets (side with the house whenever possible).
