2014 NFL Football Betting Thread

[c9h13no3]

Also The Patriots were all sorts of fired up, I personally hate the Patriots but I know that Tom Brady is extremely competitive and he is looking to redeem himself. I also dislike Belecheick (I can't even spell his name) but he is great at fixing what is broken (The O-line and everything else) and he fixed it.

That's a 20/20 hindsight argument. Brady is actually worse when he's coming off a big loss. It's convenient to say Belichick "fixed" the offensive line, but that's narrative driven talking head BS.

What's more likely is that the Bengals run defense just sucks. They had allowed 4.4 yards per carry before the game against the Pats, and they were missing Vontaze Burfict. Furthermore, they had been ahead in every game, only trailing against the Ravens for less than a minute. There was never much of an opportunity for other teams to run against them. Anyways, Bill Barnwell makes this argument better than I do here.

It drives me nuts when people make "narrative based" arguments. "The Pats were fired up, they played harder." "Belichick is smart, and fixed the offensive line." These are crutch arguments which aren't indicative of future performance.

What's most likely is that Belichick made a game plan to attack Cincinatti's weaknesses, and mask their deficiencies. And when he got a little luck to go his way, his plan worked. The Pats also played a great game in almost all phases, and matched up well against Cincinatti. It doesn't mean the Pats won't give up six sacks to Buffalo's tenacious pass rush this week.

 

[S3mper]

That's a 20/20 hindsight argument. Brady is actually worse when he's coming off a big loss. It's convenient to say Belichick "fixed" the offensive line, but that's narrative driven talking head BS.

What's more likely is that the Bengals run defense just sucks. They had allowed 4.4 yards per carry before the game against the Pats, and they were missing Vontaze Burfict. Furthermore, they had been ahead in every game, only trailing against the Ravens for less than a minute. There was never much of an opportunity for other teams to run against them. Anyways, Bill Barnwell makes this argument better than I do here.

It drives me nuts when people make "narrative based" arguments. "The Pats were fired up, they played harder." "Belichick is smart, and fixed the offensive line." These are crutch arguments which aren't indicative of future performance.

What's most likely is that Belichick made a game plan to attack Cincinatti's weaknesses, and mask their deficiencies. And when he got a little luck to go his way, his plan worked. The Pats also played a great game in almost all phases, and matched up well against Cincinatti. It doesn't mean the Pats won't give up six sacks to Buffalo's tenacious pass rush this week.

I agree and retract my statement. One other reason I had Cinci losing and from a betting stand point this is bad but can be unavoidable at times is that I am a Steelers fan and needing Cinci to lose so they don't run away with the division may have been in the back of my head.

 

[c9h13no3]

Damn! 15 games this week, and 8 are home dogs. Rev up the betting machine!

 

[we will rock you]

nhl season betting

taking the bruins and the leafs tonight

 

[Kaze1886]

Im taking Kings

 

[we will rock you]

so picks went 1-1 today picks are the rangers on the road,tampa at home,and the blackhawks

 

[we will rock you]

wow colts -2.5 against the texans easy bet

 

[supermoto]

The one who believes that it should gain this anus? To my particularly I like it boston

 

[c9h13no3]

wow colts -2.5 against the texans easy bet

Why? The Colts beat up on the Jaguars, Titans, and win a 1 score game against the Ravens, and you think they should be a field goal favorite on the road against a Texans team that passes and defends the pass better than the Colts? (Don't believe me, look up the numbers)

I like the Texans, Dolphins, Giants, Bills, Jets, and Lions this week.

 

[c9h13no3]

So far this Texans game is great...

 

[S3mper]

So far this Texans game is great...

lol.I have da Colts... ofc it's only the first quarter so I shouldn't go Wohooo! yet especially with how crazy this season has been... but Wohoo!!!

 

[OzExorcist]

Yeah, Luck doesn't seem to be showing much respect for the Texans pass defence.

A serious question about the betting on this game BTW, still trying to wrap my head around some of the concepts: according to the SBR consensus numbers, the money was about 80-20 for Houston in the leadup to this game. What are we supposed to read into that and, more to the point, how did the line stay at 2.5 given the disparity?

 

[S3mper]

Colts better get a TD off this drive or the momentum will forever be lost lol

 

[okeedokalee]

Oh no my money is on the Colts but the Texan's are fighting back.Collected on first to ten points but my main bet is head-head

 

[S3mper]

Uh... oh... I knew I shouldn't of Woohoo'd....

 

[S3mper]

How that guy who is a specialist on these type of views thinks that it is an incomplete pass is idiotic...

"He never got it put away" He caught it took two steps went for a stiff arm and then fumbled when the ball hit is body...

I don't care if he didn't put it away he had control of the ball moving forward I can control the ball with my hands without putting it away...

Edit: Apparently you have to get married and make babies with the Football for it to complete the pass to have it be a fumble?

 

[c9h13no3]

What are we supposed to read into that and, more to the point, how did the line stay at 2.5 given the disparity?

Book is willing to back the Colts? Makes sense, since the Colts probably aren't in as many parlays/teasers like the Sunday games. If they think -2.5 is already generous to the Colts (and the true line should be like Colts -4), they'll stick with it and just be exposed a bit to a Texans win. The house takes sides quite often, rather than move a line. A good example was in week 2 when the Texans went on the road to play the Raiders.

Also, those consensus numbers are from just Pinnacle bettors IIRC. Those players are probably a lot of contrarian bettors (like myself). So you end up with a big amount of people backing the home dog. Which is odd, since Pinny is the least square book. If you're a contrarian, you should be betting on bodog.

 

[OzExorcist]

Thanks - I swear, I feel like I'm going back to the very start of playing poker and learning not play ace-rag with some of this stuff

I was wondering where their data was coming from. So when the book takes a position like this, is it generally smart to side with them? Or it depends?

Don't have a Bodog account unfortunately - have Pinnacle, and a couple of Australian based ones.

 

[S3mper]

Thanks - I swear, I feel like I'm going back to the very start of playing poker and learning not play ace-rag with some of this stuff

I was wondering where their data was coming from. So when the book takes a position like this, is it generally smart to side with them? Or it depends?

Don't have a Bodog account unfortunately - have Pinnacle, and a couple of Australian based ones.

With sports betting I go with Warren Buffets investment strategy, which is he looks at a companies everything and decides what that company Is worth or what he thinks that company will be worth before ever looking at what the company is currently actually worth. IF the company is worth less then what he thinks it should be he buys stock in that company and bets that the company will become worth what he thinks it should be.

So before looking at a games line, I look at the games match up and everything about the game (that I can) then guesstimate what the score will be then look at the line.

If you look at the line or in Warren Buffets case the current worth of the company beforehand it influences your decision.

 

[c9h13no3]

So when the book takes a position like this, is it generally smart to side with them? Or it depends?

The old rule, with a brick & mortar book, was you definitely want to side with the book. With Pinny, and how dubious their consensus data is, I don't think it's a hard & fast rule.

So before looking at a games line, I look at the games match up and everything about the game (that I can) then guesstimate what the score will be then look at the line.

This is a great exercise. It'll teach you to think about the game right. You should be able to guess the lines before they come out.

 

[c9h13no3]

Look at the Lion's field goal percentage during the first 5 games. They just signed Matt Prater. Tell me how they won't have at least a 3 point per game improvement over their week 1-5 performance.

 

[we will rock you]

love pitt moneyline,packers -2.5,lions ml, bills ml,chargers-7

 

[we will rock you]

im taking the rangers and the kings on sunday

 

[c9h13no3]

The GB @ Mia game is classic public vs. smart money. The public loves flashy offenses, the house loves home field, pass rush, and getting a field goal.

 

[c9h13no3]

Wow, that NYG @ Phi game was ridiculous. Philly came into week 6 having won all their games by fluky special teams play & defensive touchdowns. The Eagles were below average in yards per pass, yards per rush, yards per pass allowed, and yards per rush allowed. They weren't a good team in the first 5 weeks. The theory is that their string of good luck will run out, and the Giants should be a pick'em against them, but they're getting 2.5 points. Massey-Peabody liked the G-men this week.

So much for that. The Eagles dominated every phase of the game, and routed without any lucky fluky shit. Sigh. Predicting the NFL.