So Massey Peabody is huge on Baltimore to win this weekend... I won't pretend for a second to be smarter than those guys but I've just gotta wonder, is that a huge overreaction to Cinci's performance last week? They dropped a huge amount in the power rankings on the back of one game.
It's a crazy big drop because it wasn't an event that was precipitated by luck. There weren't weird turnovers, huge backbreaking penalties. The Bengals ran 54 plays, and didn't move the ball at all. Without AJ Green, their offense has been terrible.
I agree with you, it has the potential to be an over-reaction. But it's probably the best case scenario to over-react to. Also, Baltimore has been blowing out teams, and lost a one score game to the Colts. I get where M-P is coming from, and I wouldn't bet the Bengals this week.
Here's my picks that I wrote for the betting pool I'm in.
Chi +6 - It's probably bad to bet against Belichick coming off his mini-bye, but they just lost Chandler Jones, their best pass rusher. Pass rushers are the 2nd most important position to QB, and the Pats still don't convert third downs well. I think the Bears WR's match up well with the Pat's secondary (can't cover height), and the Patriots have benefitted from a lot of fumble luck.
Mia -5.5 - People got all warm & fuzzy because the Jags beat the Browns. But Bortles has been a turnover machine, and they got 3 turnovers from the Browns. This is still the worst team in the NFL. Miami has been pretty good with things the betting public doesn't take into account enough: Defense, and running the football.
Bal +1.5 - This pick has the potential to be a bit of an over-reaction to the past couple of games. But Baltimore has looked dominant, and has the largest point differential in the NFL. AJ Green is still out, and the Bengals have been terrible on offense ever since. When you go 1-13 on third down, and get only 135 yards of offense on a 54 plays, that isn't a small sample size ruining you, you just suck. And I'm putting more of the blame on Cincy's offense than the Colt's D.
Buf +3 - The Jets just came off a mini-bye, but why else should they be considered equal to the Bills? The Bills lost their two RB's, but that's one of the most replaceable positions in the NFL. Bryce Brown is also a legit talent when he's not fumbling. People are over-valuing the Jets close loss to the Patriots as well.
GB +2 - At some point people will have to jump off the New Orleans bandwagon. Their defense is just truly terrible, and is the worst in the league according to DVOA. Drew Brees is playing fine, all his numbers are within his career averages, he's not the issue. But at some point people will have to realize that these aren't the old Saints that had a passable D.
Ten +3 - MMmmm home dog in a divisional game. Mettenberger was
great in the preseason (albeit against the 3rd stringers). He's probably not that much worse than Whitehurst. And Houston & Tennessee are roughly the same team in terms of
DVOA. JJ Watt gets all the press, but this is still a game of quarterbacks, and if you just call it Fitzpatrick vs. Mettenberger, do you really think the Fitzpatricks should be spotting 3 on the road?
I also kinda like Denver, but the whole public team thing keeps me away. No one's talking about their defense, which is top 3 in the league. Von Miller is looking more like his old self. Somehow the superbowl and losing the rematch to Seattle has knocked the luster off the Broncos, but they're better than last year.