Why you betting the over?
Here's what I like this week. But I'm currently -1.4 units on the season so maybe you don't want my advice.
Car +3 - Stupid talking head narrative is that the Saints were able to fix the defense over the bye week. I'm betting the other 6 games was a better sample of how they played. Sure they beat up on the Packers coming off their bye at home, but a divisional opponent on the road on a short week is another matter.
Bal PK - Steeler's over reaction hedge here. The Steelers have been Jekyll and Hyde all year, and I love that Flacco is now chucking the ball deep. The Ravens are banged up, but not at the key positions. MP big play as well.
StL +10 - KC ranks 4th in DVOA, SF is 20th, but last week the line was 7. Over-reaction city! And the bye prolly helps less against a divisional opponent, who needs prep time when you've played each other before this year?
Mia -1.5 - I love Miami. They have the #4 defense, the #3 running game, and a mediocre QB with a super hot wife. No one will think they're great because they don't have a magical QB, but that's fine, I'll take the value. Plus SD has benefitted from fumble luck and winning close games, which is usually not sustainable. MP loves this play.
NYJ +10 - The Jets match up well with KC. KC's offense is all running the ball with Charles and throwing to TE's and RB's. Well the Jets can't cover WRs, but they stop the running game quite well. Plus this line could be an over reaction to the Geno meltdown. Vick turns the ball over as much as Geno, but at least he adds value with his running.
I'm also tempted by the Browns and Oakland.