Reasonably big move against Miami in late betting, into -4 now. Putting one unit on that on principle, given Massey Peabody are keen on them even at -5 (they actually have the line at -8.15, if my math is correct...)
Yeah, something like that. They've blown out some bad teams though, which MP gives too much credit for.
I'm staying away.
I think I have four plays this week. Here's the five I do for the betting pool.
Cleveland -3 - I'm not a Ryan Mallet believer. His preseason stats have not been good. He averaged 5.9 YPA in the 2013 preseason, 4.5 YPA the 2012 preseason, and 5.7 YPA in his rookie preseason. A 5.9 YPA is the same as Geno Smith this year. Derek Carr clocks in at 5.6 this year, and Blaine Gabbert has averaged 5.6 YPA for his career. And that is Mallet's preseason numbers against scrubs, they likely won't get a ton better. I bet the market is under-rating Mallet's shittyness.
Detroit +2 - I'm not a Drew Stanton believer. His season
stats have not been good... wait this is the same thing I wrote up there. Plus the statistical guys don't like the Cards (15th in DVOA). They've relied on fluky plays (pick sixes, 70+ yard touchdowns) that just don't happen every week to get wins.
Washington -7.5 - Josh McCown still sucks, so I'm still betting that Tampa will under-perform compared to what they've done up to this point. Plus the 'Skins have RG3 back, and the market might assume he's about the same as Cousins/McCoy.
Green Bay -5 - Yep, I'm betting against Sanchez again. Maybe this time the opposing QB won't be hiding an injury (
no one believes you Ron). Short week doesn't help Iggles either.
NY Giants +4 - This game could very well be a trap. Coughlin is the kind of coach a team can quit on. He's a disciplinarian who has authority when he's winning, but when he's about to be fired, no one's scared of his wrath. But I'm out of angles, and I think the 49'ers might've been let back into the circle of trust a little too soon. They're still only 16th in DVOA. And I don't think Aldon Smith plays a full set of snaps.
Chi -3.5 (buy low play), Ten +5/+6 is also interesting (MP breakeven play, Pitt might still be a little over-valued, Mettenberger looked okay). I also like the over in the Miami/Buffalo game. Miami & Buffalo are both good pass defenses, but their offenses are run based. Prolly see a little more running carrying the offense than the public thinks.