This week I like:
Den -3 - Den matches up well against Cin. Teams that beat Cin run the ball well, and get to Dalton. The Pats provided that blue print. Plus I get to buy low on Den.
StL -5 - Easily the most improved team as the season has gone on. They got back a great pass rusher (Long), better QB play from Hill, and I like Fisher's attitude making all the players that were drafted from the RG3 deal be captains against the Skins. And the Giants are waiting to fire Coughlin.
KC +3 - KC's DVOA is higher than Pit's. The line says they're even. Sometimes it's that easy. KC wins through a crazy good pass rush, and a killer run game. Not as flashy as Big Ben chucking the rock around the yard, but more effective.
SF -1 - They've played a tough schedule recently, and the public is blowing the "quit on Harbaugh" thing out of proportion. Their home field sucks, but their DVOA is essentially the same as SD's, so there's a little room here for value.
Cle +3.5 - Four teams have had recent change at QB, and we have data on three of the new QB's. But Manziel has only played one game. He's an unknown. Cincy defends the pass quite well, so I'll give JFF a do over at Car. This line would be 2.5 if Hoyer was playing, and I don't think Manziel is that much worse than Hoyer.
I think Ari & Chi that MP likes are traps. Clausen and Lindley's career numbers are TERRIBLE. Those teams will likely be way worse than their performances to date. I could maybe get on board with Chi, but they've quit so hard on the season.