NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[Synopsis]

Didn't expect the saints to play so slow. They weren't snapping until under 10 seconds. Milked for 0 points. Bad start for me 0-1 on the first quarter.

NFL is less fun to watch because that 40 second play clock. I couldn't even watch Peyton Manning when he played.

 

[ChickenArise]

Didn't expect the saints to play so slow. They weren't snapping until under 10 seconds. Milked for 0 points. Bad start for me 0-1 on the first quarter.

Yeah I didnt want to say anything that would influence your bet because past performance is no guarantee of future result but if you remember correctly they started off slow last season in the first couple games they hardly scored.

 

[ChickenArise]

Raiders line finally moved. You know what... I'm going to play them +3. They have had success against denver, beat them in Denver by 1, and beat them at home by multiple scores. The Antonio brown thing shouldn't be a distraction really, he barely even practiced with them, and gruden is a good coach. He should have them improved at least a little. Meanwhile denver has a lot of new parts on the sideline, and new scheme and system. Those don't tend to just fall into place from practice, so I'm banking on them making mistakes. I also think flacco is a downgrade from keenum, and Oakland did really well in the draft and off season to get some talent on the offense to replace coop. And on flacco, he was never great exactly, but since that superb owl he has thrown something like 110 tds.... but 80 interceptions. If Oakland keeps it between the tackles, and their tight ends perform as they should, I like the Raiders to win straight up.

The pounding the line on Denver has been happening all week long which indicates sharp money is on Denver. Any late swing is likely public money. The line opened at Oak-2. Most of the movement happened prior to the Antonio Brown incident.

I cant say I disagree with you on Flacco but I cant imagine the Oakland defense making a dramatic improvement from last year this early in the season. Best of luck though.

 

[Synopsis]

Wasn't just last year. I was aware of that, but brees talked about how they were going to be uptempo and play kind of balls out. I failed to see any of that...

Maybe that score just now will get them to actually play more than 1 play a minute.

Yeah I didnt want to say anything that would influence your bet because past performance is no guarantee of future result but if you remember correctly they started off slow last season in the first couple games they hardly scored.

 

[Synopsis]

See. They came out uptempo and went right down the field, then slowed the tempo back to how it was in the first quarter, and immediately stalled out. Everyone is a armchair coach, but jesus, how many years does it take you to realize how your team is successful. So frustrating to watch. Playing uptempo is a absolutely huge advantage on offense if you have the pieces, and they have the pieces. Looks like I'll be buying out at halftime, hopefully.

 

[Synopsis]

Unless these lines get bet up while I'm taking my dogs out, I'm not making a halftime play. Saints get it first next half, and I'd rather see if they get a quick score. If they do, my lines may be able to overlap.

 

[Synopsis]

Complete pass +200 next play

 

[Synopsis]

Whooo... that was a close one. I got it in right before the hike, on the very next play they dropped a pass.

Edit, and saints just scored as I hit enter. There is the early score I was looking for.

2nd edit... considering complete pass on the first play of the saints next possession if it's at least +200.

 

[Synopsis]

I'm being stupid, but it paid off. Both times to kamara. It wasn't +200, but was +190.

Edit... for people wondering. If you have some football knowledge (I played in high school, and summer leauges) you can identify the formation as they break huddle. On the first play of a possession they come out slower from the huddle. You have about a 5 to 7 second window from that moment to look at the formation, and add that to the team tendencies. Saints have a great dump off back, so even on busted plays they get a lot of complete passes for 4 to 5 yards. What I do is keep 2 tabs open, left is run, right is pass. When they are in the huddle, I put in the bet values on both. When they come out and I see the formation I go to the play type I believe it will be, and hit the bet. Try it out if you know formations.

 

[Synopsis]

This would be a good spot to do it. Probably come out in the gun. 2 posts, Kamara blocks and goes to flats, or on a wheel. If post isn't open, dump to kamara.

Edit.. Haha... see. I didn't bet it, and won't be betting live props again tonight, not in this game anyway. But I was completely right except kamara didn't block. Post was open, and they scored. odds on that was also +190, but I didn't play it. Was just an example of using team tendencies and what happened on 1st down to your advantage. And for anyone looking at this, I made this post (not the edit) during the commercial break, a solid 2 minutes before the game was back on.

 

[Synopsis]

Whooooooo! Hell yeah! Saints over 29.5 on a 58 yard game winning field goal.

 

[Synopsis]

Today - 5-1 +6 units. Teaser is still live.
Total for week 1 NFL - 13-6 +21.5 units. Added loss and the lost unit from last nights pitt/pats game

Win - Oakland +3
Win - Saints team total over 29.5
Loss - Texans/Saints 1st quarter over 9.5
Win - Josh Jacobs over 58.5 rushing yards. he had 85 yards rushing, 2 touchdowns.
Win - Saints complete pass next play +200
Win - saints complete pass next play +190

Teaser
First 2 legs won, panthers game on thursday - Sht of saints +3.5, saints/Texans over 41.5, panthers +3.5

 

[ribbybruno]

Suggestion to make scoresandodds.com closing line the official line for entries made on game day. Best of luck to all.

Yes - I will use this site if their is any debate over numbers

 

[ribbybruno]

NFL Betting Thread Results Week 1

ribbybruno (2-4) -2.40 Units/-$240

Recap - Titans smash Browns, Panthers come up short, KC looks really good and Foles injured, Cardinals make come back with Murray showing heart, Bucs need QB and Raiders run all over Broncos (2-4)

ribby (2-4)
Risto (1-1)
ChickenArise (8-2)
imhighhommie (1-2)
synopsis (17-7)
TDTODDY (2-3)
CRStals (2-1)
an9312 (1-0)
Aremaz95 (0-2)

If we need to make adjustments to these numbers. Let me know in the thread!

Great picking folks!

 

[Synopsis]

Early parlay.
Chargers -2.5, Dallas -3 (bought to -3 @-160) bears -2.5, browns -2.5. @+962

A lot of value here in my opinion. I could see this winning 4 or 5 times out of 10, so getting almost 10 to 1 payout is a nice shot. I also bet each of them individually except dallas (I already bet dallas). A solid 4 plays here that should have a really high chance of at least breaking even, yet a ceiling of 13 units, on only 4 units invested.

 

[TDTODDY]

Bad day at the betting booth.

 

[ChickenArise]

NFL 2019 week one PENALTY stats

Ok this is important. If you have not already looked here in preparation for next weeks betting, you should. Teams that are at the top of this list do not have their Sh*t together and should not be bet on but rather faded, especially if they are favorites.

On the contrary teams that rank at the bottom of this list with fewest penalties committed indicate that they do have their act together and have come prepped and ready to play.

 

[Synopsis]

It's perceptive really, at least this early. I love the Browns at -2.5 because of stuff on that list. They gave up 180 yards in penalties. They had a load of turnovers. They went in that game with inflated heads and got brought back down to earth. You have a team loaded with talent, who couldn't get out of their own way, in week 1, who would you want them to play week 2 if you were a fan of theirs? Jets have to be one of the first few choices on that list right? This game has all the signs of a slaughter to me.

Ok this is important. If you have not already looked here in preparation for next weeks betting, you should. Teams that are at the top of this list do not have their Sh*t together and should not be bet on but rather faded, especially if they are favorites.

On the contrary teams that rank at the bottom of this list with fewest penalties committed indicate that they do have their act together and have come prepped and ready to play.

 

[ChickenArise]

It's perceptive really, at least this early. I love the Browns at -2.5 because of stuff on that list. They gave up 180 yards in penalties. They had a load of turnovers. They went in that game with inflated heads and got brought back down to earth. You have a team loaded with talent, who couldn't get out of their own way, in week 1, who would you want them to play week 2 if you were a fan of theirs? Jets have to be one of the first few choices on that list right? This game has all the signs of a slaughter to me.

Well I should add that although Minnesota was high on the list, if you subtract the penalties of their week one opponent Atlanta, you only have a net of +2 penalties for 22 yards, so its all relative.

These stats bode well for Tennessee but I dont think Cleveland can just correct their sloppiness in just one week. That is a lot of penalties for a lot of penalty yards. Best of luck versus the Jets who had about the same penalties as their opponents the Bills.

 

[Synopsis]

They don't need to correct the sloppiness... they are playing the Jets, haha. Kidding of course. Sure they could dud out again, and ultimately still be the Cleveland people are used to prior to last year, but I think nothing better could have happened for this line than what happened sunday. The motivation aspects are all there with the weak line making them feel disrespected. The ego of needing to prove themselves as individuals. The whole us against the world concept. As for the lack of discipline with all the penalties, I expect them to over compensaten at first then be fine. Can't be much worse than they were. Baker reminds me of farve, in the sense he is a gunslinger and makes a lot of needless mistakes when behind big, but that can also go the opposite way and he be a hero of a game. His stats took the big hit in the 4th, behind by a lot, trying to do too much too late. I really like this play. Best opponent possibly to at least have a one game turn around.

As for minnesota, they were more deceptive. They beat a team with a ton of talent and that's all most people see. Every td they had came from a turnover except 1, and that 1 was from a muffed punt. I don't see them high on the list and expect better things like I do with Cleveland. So the list can be helpful for sure to add into other data you're looking through. Thanks for that.

Well I should add that although Minnesota was high on the list, if you subtract the penalties of their week one opponent Atlanta, you only have a net of +2 penalties for 22 yards, so its all relative.

These stats bode well for Tennessee but I dont think Cleveland can just correct their sloppiness in just one week. That is a lot of penalties for a lot of penalty yards. Best of luck versus the Jets who had about the same penalties as their opponents the Bills.

 

[ChickenArise]

I expect the Jets could possibly open 0-6 so flip a coin.

Looks like they are jumping on my Cincinatti play early. Sharps must see what I see even though they werent so sharp week 1.

It opened SF-1 and I thought we could wait and watch SF get bet up to -3. I no longer think that is going to happen as Cinci is now the fav at most books.

The best line is currently pick (-115) at party poker

I am making Cincinatti -115 money line an official play now.
I am also adding LA Chargers -2.5 as an official play. Yes this may be square but its the Lions. They find a way to lose.


Edit: I was just making a parlay and the Cinci line moved to -125 at Party. Get it while its good. I think you could sell up to 1.5 here to lower the price.

My parlay (not an official play for thread purposes) is:
Tenn -175 (ML)
DAL -225 (ML)
CIN -125 (ML)
BAL -13.5
LAC -2.5
odds +13.94

 

[Synopsis]

Take that last play of the game away, and I'd be all over that cinci line. I just can't trust him if it's a close game in the 4th. They also under utilize one of their best players. Like I said though, Ross was impressive, and until that last play, Dalton was lights out.

I expect the Jets could possibly open 0-6 so flip a coin.

Looks like they are jumping on my Cincinatti play early. Sharps must see what I see even though they werent so sharp week 1.

It opened SF-1 and I thought we could wait and watch SF get bet up to -3. I no longer think that is going to happen as Cinci is now the favs at most books.

The best line is currently pick (-115) at Party Poker

I am making Cincinatti -115 money line an official play now.

Edit: I was just making a parlay and the Cinci line moved to -125 at Party. Get it while its good. I think you could sell up to 1.5 here to lower the price.

 

[ChickenArise]

Adding the Chicago Bears -2.5
Adding Baltimore Ravens -13

Four official plays versus the spread.

On a side note I like Dallas Money line in Parlays, they may cover the -5 but its division game so safer to just take em to win.

 

[Synopsis]

Dallas line has gone between 4 and 5 since it came out, multiple times back and forth. It's one of my favorites of this week. I got them straight, and have a parlay with 2 open spots. If I see it back to 4 again, I may do a sht or 2 on it at +6. Wouldn't be a bad one with the Ravens and someone else, or even just a 6 or 7 on those 2. I wish I had done one when the pats were -17. Dallas +6, ravens -3, pats -7 would have been a nice sht.

Adding the Chicago Bears -2.5
Adding Baltimore Ravens -13

Four official plays versus the spread.

On a side note I like Dallas Money line in Parlays, they may cover the -5 but its division game so safer to just take em to win.

 

[Risto234]

This sunday in NFL

Denver Broncos - Chicago Bears

Over 40.5 @1.98