NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[Synopsis]

5-1 so far. For +14 units (rounded down) I included the plays I had in college football that needed NFL wins today because I already did my weekly wrap up in the college thread.
Loss - Atlanta +3.5
Win - Atlanta live bet +18.5
Win - Atlanta -2.5 second half
Win - Rams -1 2 units
Win - oklahoma, rams, chiefs 7pt tease @+140
Win - 4 team parlay on the chiefs win @ +962

Need Dallas and Seahawks wins to finish off my day.

Congrats to those on the bills, that was a hell of a comeback, I know you all had to be nervous. Nice hit guys.

 

[CRStals]

I'm late to the party for week 1 but here to defend my title!!! Thanks again Ron for hosting this!!

Going for the night games this week:

New England -5.5
Houston +6.5
Denver -2.5

Good luck everyone!

 

[Risto234]

I guess i'll continue using same method in NFL as i use in handball - pick games where over line is (way too) low

So first 2 picks from me:
Miami Dolphins - Baltimore Ravens; over 37.5 @1.91
NY Jets - Buffalo Bills; over 40.0 @1.91

Not sure what the exact scores were but it looks like one of them lost and one actually won

 

[Synopsis]

Seahawks -6 second half. They have played poorly yet are only down 4, and that was due to a horrible db play at the end of the half. This is pretty much just saying the Seahawks will win or push, but with better odds than the money line. I wanted the second half over but the odds changed to a bad number. The lines are flipping like crazy on this game, like every 10 seconds it goes half a point either way.

 

[Synopsis]

Today's total 7-2 +17.5 units (rounded down, was almost 18)


These were the last 3 plays, had to sweat the Seahawks in the sht, but they scraped by.
Win - Rams, eagles, Seahawks sht for 2 units.
Win - Dallas, eagles, Chiefs 7pt @+140 for 2 units
Loss - Seahawks -6 2nd half


Don't think I'll be on the late game. Pats are notoriously average in September, then amazing in October. They are playing a quality team. I may look at the over though, but for now I'm done for today.

 

[an9312]

baltimore was so easy. actually got it at -5.5!!

 

[ChickenArise]

Buffalo won ugly. Hit some parlays for about $150. 2 wins and no losses. A good start on official picks in this thread this year.

Had 3 more parlays paying $220 that only needed under 47.5 in AZ/DET.

DET screwed that all when the dumb ass defensive coordinator called time out before Detroit snaps the ball on would would have been an easy first down leaving Arizona with no time outs remaining.

Next play incomplete. Arizona gets the ball back by partially blocking a punt. This is coming unglued in the worst of ways. As long as they dont score a touchdown AND get a 2pt conversion to tie the game in just under 2 minutes, Im good.

They are in overtime now so you know Detroit screwed me. The improbable happened. I hope the Lions lose. They totally deserve to F*in lose. F Detroit!

I am psyched to watch Pitt/NE but I dont think Pitt was prepared to have AB give NE the skinny on their whole offensive playbook so I have to favor NE, but no official play. I have to lean over in this game as well.

I like Denver on Monday night laying up to 2.5 for one unit. I dont like it if you are forced to lay 3.

We can make DEN-2.5 an official play if not to late to add on.

 

[Synopsis]

Haha, you sound like I did about fsu yesterday. I feel your pain man. Good hit on buffalo though, you called that one early.

Buffalo won ugly. Hit some parlays for about $150. 2 wins and no losses. A good start on official picks in this thread this year.

Had 3 more parlays paying $220 that only needed under 47.5 in AZ/DET.

DET screwed that all when the dumb ass defensive coordinator called time out before Detroit snaps the ball on would would have been an easy first down leaving Arizona with no time outs remaining.

Next play incomplete. Arizona gets the ball back by partially blocking a punt. This is coming unglued in the worst of ways. As long as they dont score a touchdown AND get a 2pt conversion to tie the game in just under 2 minutes, Im good.

They are in overtime now so you know Detroit screwed me. I hope the Lions lose. They totally deserve to lose. F Detroit!

I am psyched to watch Pitt/NE but I dont think Pitt was prepared to have AB give NE the skinny on their whole offensive playbook so I have to favor NE, but no official play. I have to lean over in this game as well.

I like Denver on Monday night laying up to 2.5 for one unit.

We can make DEN-2.5 an official play if not to late to add on.

 

[Synopsis]

Im going to add pats +1, and over 43.5 teaser, just for 1 unit, just a bet to make the game more entertaining for me.

 

[Synopsis]

I'm also adding a really early open spot acr parlay of Dallas -4.5, the other 2 spots are open. I can't imagine this line doesn't shoot to 7 or up maybe even tonight. Just putting g it out there now so people know why it's 4.5

 

[ChickenArise]

Keeping an eye on Cincinnati for next week vs. SF who is on the road again.

Cinci played well vs. Seattle and San Fran did not play Tampa particularly well but was gifted the game by Jameson Winston's multiple interception throws for 2 easy touchdowns.

No need to make it official nor take it early as the public will bet up SF-1 to -3 by the end of the week, just based on the scores from this week.

We will likely make it an official play later this week.

 

[Synopsis]

Might be worth a look but I watched that whole cinci game since I was invested in it, and you know what I kept thinking? I was like "come on, Dalton is bound to f up" regardless how well he was playing, that kept going through my mind. What happened at the most important time? He made his 1 mistake of the game and fumbled, game over. It's almost clockwork with him. I have to say though I was super impressed by ross. Even when he wasn't targeted he was open almost every play. 7 think one of their problems is they don't give Benson the ball enough, I might have seen him with the ball 5 times at most that whole game. He is a truly underrated back, he is top tier.

Keeping an eye on Cincinnati for next week vs. SF who is on the road again.

Cinci played well vs. Seattle and San Fran did not play Tampa particularly well but was gifted the game by Jameson Winston's multiple interception throws for 2 easy touchdowns.

No need to make it official nor take it early as the public will bet up SF-1 to -3 by the end of the week, just based on the scores from this week.

We will likely make it an official play later this week.

 

[ChickenArise]

Wow Pats have the whole Steelers offensive Playbook

I should have know the Steelers would be shut out the first half. They will be lucky to score 10 points second half. Checking 2nd half line to play this.

 

[ChickenArise]

Ended up laying -210 Pats first to 30 points
the only real risk is the other side Pitt first to 30 points also includes no one to score 30 points

Now that I think about it the NE 2nd half team total over would have been about the same thing and incurred less risk. Doh!

 

[Synopsis]

No worries there man. You hit it. I'm kicking myself for not taking pats -0.5 first quarter, it was even money but I said I already did the tease and had a good day, so I'll just chill. Feels like they will score 10 points in the 4th... making me lose by half a point. Congrats on the he first to 30.

 

[Synopsis]

Oh, forgot to mention, I don't think pitt is the problem. I actually think they are a very good team. Pats are just this good, it's almost scary watching how good they are doing this to another good team. Just imagine if brown stays in check, AND Thomas being healthy in a few weeks. Pats will be unreal.

 

[imhighhommie]

0-1

Oh boy not a good start

Bills +3
Chargers -6.5

For now those are the only two games I'm confident enough on to throw some ched at. GL meeeeee

1-2 on the year.

I'll accept that considering how some of the games went that I stayed away from today lol
Staying away from the monday games, vegas is too spot on.

 

[ribbybruno]

Going to fire at the Oakland Raiders +2.5

Carr 2-0 vs Flacco

 

[ribbybruno]

can you guys read this at all? Like if you can make it out. It difficult to get the whole thing.

I can get on Las Vegas Odds tomorrow and get numbers. I will post results on Tuesday sometime.

 

[Synopsis]

This line is fishy exactly how the bears line was last monday. It's been heavy heavy juice at -2.5 for a long time now, yet no movement. It's juiced at -125 at most places right now, that's a hell of a lot of juice for a spread.

Going to fire at the Oakland Raiders +2.5

Carr 2-0 vs Flacco

 

[Synopsis]

I'm going to make a play on saints team total over 29.5. Brees at home scoring at least 30, I'd take that bet against anyone I think and would be confident it would win a fair share more than just the majority. They scored 30 or higher in 6 of their 8 home games during the regular season last year.

I'm also going to take a stab at the first quarter over 9.5. 7 to 3, 7 to 7, 10 to 3, 10 to 7, 14 to 7, 14 to 3 all seem pretty reasonable with these 2 teams given their weapons, even though both are good defensive teams. I'm banking the saints will want to get off early, and I expect both teams to come out more uptempo than the average game.

 

[Synopsis]

Josh jacobs over 58.5 rushing yards @+108

Disclaimer... this is 100 percent a fan support bet. I was born in alabama (moved to Florida when I was 2) so I was born and raised to be a alabama fan. This bet is just a fan bet, but I also like it, with brown gone, and denver having a average rush defence, this could go well over. I would expect the Raiders to take advantage of Denver soft middle, and pound the ball. People think of defence when they think of denver, but their stud ends play... well on the ends. The middle is weak and jacobs is a strong back. Unless Oakland don't actually start him, or give him limited carries, I like this play.


Sht of saints +3.5, saints/Texans over 41.5, panthers +3.5 all good numbers, I think the saints win at home, and I don't see how between the 2 where they can't muster up 42 points. Panthers given over a fg at home vs a team I wasn't impressed with looks good to me. Panthers played terrible vs the rams, and still only lost by 3. Needless to say, the buccs aren't the rams.

 

[Synopsis]

Raiders line finally moved. You know what... I'm going to play them +3. They have had success against denver, beat them in Denver by 1, and beat them at home by multiple scores. The Antonio brown thing shouldn't be a distraction really, he barely even practiced with them, and gruden is a good coach. He should have them improved at least a little. Meanwhile denver has a lot of new parts on the sideline, and new scheme and system. Those don't tend to just fall into place from practice, so I'm banking on them making mistakes. I also think flacco is a downgrade from keenum, and Oakland did really well in the draft and off season to get some talent on the offense to replace coop. And on flacco, he was never great exactly, but since that superb owl he has thrown something like 110 tds.... but 80 interceptions. If Oakland keeps it between the tackles, and their tight ends perform as they should, I like the Raiders to win straight up.

 

[Aremaz95]

I signed up yesterday I played a parley in which I only lost by the high Patriots-Steelers. For today I like Saints -6.5 and the high o43 Broncos

 

[Synopsis]

Just a heads up, these teams haven't scored over 41 combined together since 2016, and only once in their last 8 games. Not saying they won't tonight, but it's definitely something to consider. I like that total teased down but I'm avoiding it because its just too questionable. The average total in those 8 games was a hair over 34. The one that was over was 50, 3 years back.

I signed up yesterday I played a parley in which I only lost by the high Patriots-Steelers. For today I like Saints -6.5 and the high o43 Broncos