NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[Synopsis]

Vikings -1 second half
This is under the full game line, so just doubling the bet up without affecting any buy out possibility. Packers are playing well besides the turnovers, vikings can't do anything but play better here, and they get the ball first this half. Hopefully they get coached up at halftime. Crazy how similar this is to the Texans game.

 

[wyoming4paul]

Sorry, gotta like the Pack in the 2nd half.

 

[Synopsis]

Yeah, seems so. I can't believe the Vikings punted right there, they just have no fight in them tonight, players and coaches alike.

 

[Synopsis]

Packers -12.5 seems like a solid bet. Green bay will let them have small plays just to eat up clock, then they will sit on it when they get it back and game is over. They probably won't even get a first down here.

 

[Synopsis]

They finally score and it gets brought back on holding. Not their night at all.

Edit... then they punted it? In a 2 score game with 3 minutes left? And the prior play was a 1 yard pass, explain this logic to me.

 

[Synopsis]

Meh.. 2-2, 15-6 for the week.

Still like the play, everything lined up, just didn't work out. At least I got that packers bet in to recoup some of it. Should have ignored this game like I said yesterday, but so much data conflicted and I talked myself into it.

 

[ribbybruno]

Meh.. 2-2, 15-6 for the week.

Still like the play, everything lined up, just didn't work out. At least I got that packers bet in to recoup some of it. Should have ignored this game like I said yesterday, but so much data conflicted and I talked myself into it.

Lol - I talked myself into it too! Luckily, after waffling took the Packers.

 

[Synopsis]

What made you go with them? I couldn't find a single reason to bet them, which is ultimately why I talked myself into the vikings... who would have won easily if they just performed at like 80 percent of their usual. Them, and the Texans really looked like the opposite versions of themselves this week. The Texans have shown that off and on, but the Vikings have been pretty consistent.

Lol - I talked myself into it too! Luckily, after waffling took the Packers.

 

[ribbybruno]

What made you go with them? I couldn't find a single reason to bet them, which is ultimately why I talked myself into the vikings... who would have won easily if they just performed at like 80 percent of their usual. Them, and the Texans really looked like the opposite versions of themselves this week. The Texans have shown that off and on, but the Vikings have been pretty consistent.

I saw a trend where Vikings would win 2 games and lose next (which happened)

The Vikings last 6 opponents have not been the toughest. Green Bay defense only gives up around 20 points a game. I thought at worst lose by a FG +3 and cover.

 

[Synopsis]

Kind of what I thought, score wise anyway. That's why I wanted it at 3. There was just too many things pointing toward them though. I'd outweigh undefeated at home against win 2 drop 1. That seems more random. Worked out for you though, congrats. I should just stick to non Mnf games. If I recall right, my record on them is well, well under my average.

I saw a trend where Vikings would win 2 games and lose next (which happened)

The Vikings last 6 opponents have not been the toughest. Green Bay defense only gives up around 20 points a game. I thought at worst lose by a FG +3 and cover.

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 16 and overall

ribby (3-2)(52-58-1)
Risto (3-1)(23-25-1)
ChickenArise (3-2)(25-29-3)
imhighhommie (0-0)(14-15-1)
synopsis (15-6) (132-60)
TDTODDY (0-0)(16-15)
CRStals (2-4)(49-55-1)
Pokerski (9-8) (67-54)
wewillrockyou (4-1) (14-4)
mrrigel (0-0) (10-9-1)
Aremaz95 (0-0)(21-14)
odn(0-0)(2-0)
an9312 (0-1)(1-1)
LeeCallaghan (0-0) (1-0)
terryk (0-0) (2-0)
rmcmullen2003 (0-0) (1-1)
Jam V92 (0-0) (2-5)
an9312 (0-0)(3-1)
PelyaMX (0-0)(2-2)
Yanko57 (1-2)(4-4-1)
PokerToker (1-0) (1-0)

 

[ChickenArise]

Going to lock in Oakland Raiders +3

 

[ChickenArise]

Kind of what I thought, score wise anyway. That's why I wanted it at 3. There was just too many things pointing toward them though. I'd outweigh undefeated at home against win 2 drop 1. That seems more random. Worked out for you though, congrats. I should just stick to non Mnf games. If I recall right, my record on them is well, well under my average.

Was that you my friend that I was heads up vs at the final table in the ACR freeroll on Xmas night? Good game if it was! What a dramatic final hand!

 

[Risto234]

My last 4 bets of the calendar year (i'm also using these selections to try win some cash in OLBG NFL competion) ...

Broncos vs Raiders; over 41.0 @1.95
Ravens vs Steelers; over 37.5 @1.91
Bills vs Jets; over 36.0 @1.91
Vikings vs Bears; over 36.5 @1.91

 

[ChickenArise]

My last 4 bets of the calendar year (i'm also using these selections to try win some cash in OLBG NFL competion) ...

Broncos vs Raiders; over 41.0 @1.95
Ravens vs Steelers; over 37.5 @1.91
Bills vs Jets; over 36.0 @1.91
Vikings vs Bears; over 36.5 @1.91

I like all but the Ravens Steelers. Best of luck.

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 17 First Look -

Philly @ NY Giants - Philly in tough game last week vs Dallas. Giants offense playing better and this game will be closer than people think. Eagles win NFC East with win.

NY Jets @ Bills - Bills are in the Playoffs. I don't think a win either way this week will help their position. Will the starters play all game for Buffalo? Maybe a good game to stay away from.

Browns @ Bengals - Kind of like Bengals a dog here. Browns have nothing to play. Bengals getting their 2nd win of the season will not hurt draft selection.

Packers @ Lions - Packers heading for 2nd seed with a win or Saints loss! Rodgers can smell the bye week. Coach Patricia will get Lions to play hard and may back door cover.

Chargers @ Chiefs - Chiefs heads to a first round bye with a win and New England loss.

Bears @ Vikings - This game has no meaning for Vikings playoff seed. Which teams will show up? A good game to abstain from.

Dolphins @ Patriots - Patriots will get 1st round bye with a win or Chiefs loss. Spread pretty big for such a small total 44.5 - Fitzpatrick not too bad - hmm

Falcons @ Bucs - I see this game and the first thing I think of is points - 47.5 - maybe a good over in this spot

Saints @ Panthers -

New Orleans clinches a first-round bye with:
1. NO win + GB loss or tie OR
2. NO win + SF loss or tie OR
3. NO tie + GB loss OR
4. NO tie + SF loss OR
5. SF loss + GB win or tie
New Orleans clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:
1. NO win + GB loss or tie + SF loss or tie OR
2. NO tie + GB loss + SF loss
Redskins @ Cowboys - Cowboys clinch NFC East with a win and Eagles loss. Keenum starts for Redskins.
Raiders @ Broncos -
Oakland clinches a playoff berth with:
1. OAK win + PIT loss + TEN loss + IND win + OAK clinches strength-of-victory tiebreaker over PIT*
*OAK clinches strength-of-victory tiebreaker over PIT if ONE of the following teams win or tie: CHI, DET, LAC OR NE
Raiders 2-5 on the road this year. Can Gruden rally the troops?
Cardinals @ Rams - No line as of yet. Pride game!
Colts @ Jaguars - Colts can help some teams with a win but this game doesn't matter. Abstain!
Steelers @ Ravens - Ravens have cemented 1st round bye. Jackson will probably sit out?
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth with:
1. PIT win + TEN loss or tie OR
2. PIT tie + TEN loss OR
3. TEN loss + IND win + OAK loss or tie OR
4. TEN loss + IND win + PIT ties OAK in strength-of-victory tiebreaker*
*PIT ties OAK in strength-of-victory tiebreaker if ALL of the following teams win: MIN, GB, KC AND MIA
Titans @ Texans - Houston has won AFC South and heading for the 4th seed. Tennessee needs help -
Tennessee clinches a playoff berth with:
1. TEN win OR
2. TEN tie + PIT loss or tie OR
3. PIT loss + IND loss or tie
49ers @ Seahawks -
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (12-3) (at Seattle (11-4); 8:20 PM ET, NBC)
San Francisco clinches NFC West division title with:
1. SF win or tie
San Francisco clinches a first-round bye with:
1. SF win OR
2. SF tie + GB loss or tie OR
3. SF tie + NO loss or tie
San Francisco clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:
1. SF win OR
2. SF tie + GB loss or tie + NO loss or tie
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (11-4) (vs. San Francisco (12-3); 8:20 ET, NBC)
Seattle clinches NFC West division with:
1. SEA win
Seattle clinches a first-round bye with:
1. SEA win + GB loss
Seattle clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:
1. SEA win + GB loss + NO loss

 

[Synopsis]

It was indeed. Yeah that last hand was a good one. First I figured we would chop even though I had a little better kicker. I figured the next 2 cards would be over and we chop, but then you sucked out on the turn, then I reclaimed on the river. Was a good game, we were heads up for quite a while. I'm going to put all of that first place money on a silly parlay. That's why I play the club freerolls. I strongly believe everyone who bets games have that degenerative gambler gene somewhere in them, so I make a stupid far odds bet every week to get it out of my system so I can be level minded on the rest. The free rolls let me do that without touching my bankroll. I actually win a fair share of them, considering the odds. I've hit a 107 to 1, a 52 to 1, and a 42 to 1 this year, and 2 of those were in soccer, which I know little to nothing about. It's a good practice that I would suggest to any gambler, even if it's a dollar bet for a 100k return that will never happen, get the degenerative bet out of the way and then focus on winning serious bets.

Was that you my friend that I was heads up vs at the final table in the ACR freeroll on Xmas night? Good game if it was! What a dramatic final hand!

 

[ChickenArise]

That is so cool. I didnt even realize it was you until I looked at the finishing placement list at the end of the tournament and I was like wait a minute, I think I know this guy.


LOL. I bet all my freeroll winnings on parlays as well, and we get 20% back on losers so its the gift that keeps giving.

It was indeed. Yeah that last hand was a good one. First I figured we would chop even though I had a little better kicker. I figured the next 2 cards would be over and we chop, but then you sucked out on the turn, then I reclaimed on the river. Was a good game, we were heads up for quite a while. I'm going to put all of that first place money on a silly parlay. That's why I play the club freerolls. I strongly believe everyone who bets games have that degenerative gambler gene somewhere in them, so I make a stupid far odds bet every week to get it out of my system so I can be level minded on the rest. The free rolls let me do that without touching my bankroll. I actually win a fair share of them, considering the odds. I've hit a 107 to 1, a 52 to 1, and a 42 to 1 this year, and 2 of those were in soccer, which I know little to nothing about. It's a good practice that I would suggest to any gambler, even if it's a dollar bet for a 100k return that will never happen, get the degenerative bet out of the way and then focus on winning serious bets.

 

[Synopsis]

Was that the hand that you bet 40k into a 70k pot on the river? Was a big pot, and really changed the game. You had a massive chip lead when we started heads up but I got it to about even in 10 minutes or so, but after that we went back and forth for what seemed like forever. That hand gave me more room to take some pots here and there. If I recall correctly I had k6 of clubs there. There was another hand a little earlier that I possibly made a bad fold on. You remember when I took the lead the first time and there was a pot for like 40k and you bet 18k or so which left you with 68k? My only move there was to believe I was ahead and put you in or to fold. I had a7, and I think the board was something like 7kq24. That might not be the exact board but it was something like that. You checked the flop but you raised pre. I wanted to call but I laid down. And we went back to even for a while.

That is so cool. I didnt even realize it was you until I looked at the finishing placement list at the end of the tournament and I was like wait a minute, I think I know this guy.

Did you have the King on the KK7 board or did you pull the epic bluff? I lost a lot of chips there.

LOL. I bet all my freeroll winnings on parlays as well, and we get 20% back on losers so its the gift that keeps giving.

 

[Synopsis]

On another note, I think between us, we took out that whole final table except 1 guy. I was the short stack coming in, I think I had right at 10k, a few others had 13 or so, but then everyone else was 20k+. You had 58k to start, crushing it. We did good man, you had over 200k when we got heads up. You really played the stack well when it got down to 5 people.

 

[Synopsis]

Also, playing vikings -1.5
Bad game last week with a team coming to Minnesota who have offensive issues. This line is borderline fishy... but I like seafood.

 

[ChickenArise]

Also, playing vikings -1.5
Bad game last week with a team coming to Minnesota who have offensive issues. This line is borderline fishy... but I like seafood.

I feel like there's something up in this game. It appears Minn opened as a 7 point favorite which got quickly bet down to 1.5

Im probably gonna pull the trigger on the Giants but the line is only going to grow so I will likely do this late.

I feel a half ass Baltimore team might be able to beat Pittsburgh as well but no reason to bet it early.

I enjoyed that free roll a lot, maybe we can get em again tonight.

 

[Synopsis]

Line moved because it's a meaningless game to the vikings, to both teams really. Spots are locked. Should be a sloppy ugly boring game. I'll take the home team in these situations, and let's say the Vikings play the starters just a little and gain a lead, I could see them sitting on it. Either way, just taking the home team in a meaningless game tends to be profitable over time. I like their back ups better anyway, they have more to play for on a contending team, fighting for play time.

Philly has something to play for here. If they get they get in. They could get in anyway depending on other stuff, but this game is in their control.

I'm staying away from the Ravens game. They could be sitting dam near everyone, and have nothing to gain.

I'm adding San fran. Seahawks have been terrible (and is overrated, which I argued so much earlier in the season) San Fran gets a bye week with a win here on a tiny line. San Fran is consistent even in losses, Seahawks are never consistent.

I feel like there's something up in this game. It appears Minn opened as a 7 point favorite which got quickly bet down to 1.5

Im probably gonna pull the trigger on the Giants but the line is only going to grow so I will likely do this late.

I feel a half ass Baltimore team might be able to beat Pittsburgh as well but no reason to bet it early.

I enjoyed that free roll a lot, maybe we can get em again tonight.

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 16 and overall

ribby (3-2)(52-58-1)
Risto (3-1)(23-25-1)
ChickenArise (3-2)(25-29-3)
imhighhommie (0-0)(14-15-1)
synopsis (15-6) (132-60)
TDTODDY (0-0)(16-15)
CRStals (2-4)(49-55-1)
Pokerski (9-8) (67-54)
wewillrockyou (4-1) (14-4)
mrrigel (0-0) (10-9-1)
Aremaz95 (0-0)(21-14)
odn(0-0)(2-0)
an9312 (0-1)(1-1)
LeeCallaghan (0-0) (1-0)
terryk (0-0) (2-0)
rmcmullen2003 (0-0) (1-1)
Jam V92 (0-0) (2-5)
an9312 (0-0)(3-1)
PelyaMX (0-0)(2-2)
Yanko57 (1-2)(4-4-1)
PokerToker (1-0) (1-0)

Wyoming4paul(1-0) (1-0)

 

[Synopsis]

Man... people are pounding the hell out of chicago. It's all the way to -3 and juiced. 10 points of line movement is pretty insane. I should have waited.