NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[ribbybruno]

NFL Betting Thread Results Week 8 Sunday and Monday

Sunday and Monday (0-6) -6.60 Units/ -$660 Overall (21-36) -18.6 Units/-$1860

Recap - Seattle won by 7 misses by 1(0-1), Bucs implode(4 turnovers)(0-1), Saints bury the Cardinals(0-1), Raiders/Texans Over misses by 1(0-1), Packers win by 7 and cover(0-1) and Steelers miss number by 1(0-1) = (0-5) 3 games by combined 3 points

Week 9 Sunday -

Buffalo (-10.5) @ Home vs Washington - like Bills Defense vs Haskins

Kansas City (+4.5) @ Home vs Minnesota - Rodgers and Green Bay I can see losing to but Cousins and Vikings I do not

Carolina (-3.5) @ Home vs Tennessee - A response will be made after getting stomped by 49ers

Oakland (-2.5) @ Home vs Detroit - Gruden grinds his team to victory. Every expert likes the Over but I do not.

Denver (+4) @ Home vs Cleveland - Allen may spark Broncos

LA Chargers (+4) @ Home vs Packers - Will I ever learn? Chargers really need this game to be in the hunt.

(Monday) NY Giants/Dallas Over 48 - with injuries and holes - 37-20 score

Let's win a game this week!

1 Unit each - $100

Good luck all! :beerglass

 

[ChickenArise]

Yo lines .... scoresandodds.com

scoresandodds.com

 

[imhighhommie]

Colts +1 - Seems like a trap but I don't even care, I love it lol
Cleveland -4.5 - Should make a statement here vs first time starter

Taking it easy this Sunday, don't like a lot of these lines
Best of luck everyone!

 

[odn]

Oakland -5.5 vs Detroit.

 

[ChickenArise]

This league is something. All of a sudden 7-1 Green Bay is playing like the Chargers should be.

I imagine we should expect to see the Chicago Bears light it up and have a 40 point game one of these weeks as well.

Cuz you know, any given Sunday...

My ass!

 

[Synopsis]

Has been a strange few weeks in general. A lot of questionable play calling, multiple teams tanking also. I don't think it's anything fishy for the browns, but how does baker not throw it to obj on that 4th? He looked right at him before going to landry, who was double covered. Jets were clocking with 10 minutes left in a 9 point game. I've noticed that in quite a few games lately in general. Teams still in games just milking and running.

On a brighter note, minkah is playing lights out since going to the steelers. Josh Jacobs looks like he is going to be a top tier rb. I'm a Bama fan, so I'm admittedly a little partial.

This league is something. All of a sudden 7-1 Green Bay is playing like the Chargers should be.

I imagine we should expect to see the Chicago Bears light it up and have a 40 point game one of these weeks as well.

Cuz you know, any given Sunday...

My ass!

 

[ChickenArise]

Adding Baltimore +3 as official play for no other reason than New England is attracting all of the public money but the line moves favor Baltimore winning.

Gotta be a contrarian to win in this league.

 

[imhighhommie]

Adding Baltimore +3 as official play for no other reason than New England is attracting all of the public money but the line moves favor Baltimore winning.

Gotta be a contrarian to win in this league.

Nice hit! Was fun seeing LJ run all over NE!

 

[Risto234]

Let's start november with 3 bets

Broncos vs Browns; over 39.0 @1.91
Bills vs Redskins; over 36.5 @1.91
Dolphins vs Jets; over 41.0 @1.91

Obviously match with smallest over line lost while other 2 won ...

 

[we will rock you]

cowboys win tonight

 

[ChickenArise]

All the home teams won. I would imagine Monday Night needs to be the exception to truly screw the public over. Or just maybe....

 

[Max Diver]

To me the best ones so far, 49ers. They are playing well on all parts. Offense, Defense, even Special teams. Very constantly well.
New England they are good but they can be defeated on the playoffs. A bad day and its over.
My team, Cowboys if they get to the playoffs would be a good step forward. But they are not going very far this season. If they win tonight will be important to rebuild the team.

 

[ChickenArise]

Well the public is betting Dallas as expected. The only hint from the line we would get is if it went down to DAL -6. If that happens it is safe to say the Giants will likely cover.

I have a 2 way parlay that has Dallas Money Line as its last leg. If they hang a 6 at any time, I will full hedge and go for the middle set up.

 

[Synopsis]

You are aware that this line opened at -9 right? It's been bet down consistently since it came out and has gone between 6 and 7 for days, which is usual. Quantity of a betting side isn't money on a side. I think most of your troubles this year have been because you seek too much outside influence. I don't know many bettors who are successful who care where the public is, or where the money is for that matter. Research games and find angles that give you an advantage over the line. Public influences what a line opens at, and that's all their influence. Everything else is strictly money based. You seem to know enough about the sport, trust yourself rather than looking for so much outside influence. Just some advice. Good luck with your parlays, they should be just fine.

Well the public is betting Dallas as expected. The only hint from the line we would get is if it went down to DAL -6. If that happens it is safe to say the Giants will likely cover.

I have a 2 way parlay that has Dallas Money Line as its last leg. If they hang a 6 at any time, I will full hedge and go for the middle set up.

 

[ChickenArise]

You are aware that this line opened at -9 right? It's been bet down consistently since it came out and has gone between 6 and 7 for days, which is usual. Quantity of a betting side isn't money on a side. I think most of your troubles this year have been because you seek too much outside influence. I don't know many bettors who are successful who care where the public is, or where the money is for that matter. Research games and find angles that give you an advantage over the line. Public influences what a line opens at, and that's all their influence. Everything else is strictly money based. You seem to know enough about the sport, trust yourself rather than looking for so much outside influence. Just some advice. Good luck with your parlays, they should be just fine.

Thanks. I realize your trying to help rather than criticizing and I appreciate that.

I think I havent been putting enough weight on the line movements.

Early part of the year I think you can ignore the steam but mid to later part of year I dont think one can do this effectively.

I thought the Green Bay Line was too low and not getting bet enough but I had already taken it, but I felt it was going to be in trouble.

What other clue could we have possibly gotten that said San Diego would come to play and Green Bay would not? I dont think there was any but a lack of the steam one should expect.

Then again the Cleveland move was garbage but they have just been one of those teams that has been getting steam since the beginning of the year. Last year as well. I should remove Cleveland and Tampa Bay from my betting vocabulary.

I think without analyzing any line movements that Dallas money line should be an easy win. Laying 6.5 on the road in a division game is generally a no no in the NFL. What I am looking for is the possibility for a risk free middle since I can get 6 points and potentially win both bets. I only like it at 6, even though I know that doesnt seem to make sense.

Anyhow, I am glad you are tearing it up this year, bud!

PS look at this lucky bettor who took all the home teams and parlayed them. He only bet $1 but still nice:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/fo...team-nfl-parlay-all-home-teams-moneyline.html

 

[Synopsis]

The green bay game was just a fluke. That's not to say that the line was wrong, because the chargers are better than people give credit. They were high on the list before the season. For whatever reason, they underperformed pretty much all year. They have arguably the best back in the league and he had been on hold out, then limited touches the prior few weeks. They have a hof qb, decent defence, a solid line on both sides. Given all that, I think the line was fair. It being fair doesn't mean I didn't see there being an advantage on one side. Fair is a public view, so lines can be fair but be off. Just so happens that green bay had one of those days where nothing clicks, anywhere. It happens, and can't be accounted for (it can if it happens more often, like Tampa Bay for example) for a team that had looked as good as green bay. Just one of those bad timed games where one team is on, and one is beyond off.

Cleveland is as mess, but that line was right also. They were one play (which was wide open) from winning by possibly 3, because they would have went for 2 because the score would have only been +2 with a pat. So that game should have been between 1-3 points. Cleveland are dangerous to bet on, all hit or miss, much like Tampa bay.

The line that stood out to me after looking into it was the pats line. It screamed to bet the pats. Because the line was actually right. I'm surprised they didn't open that higher though. If edelman didn't fumble there, the pats run away with that game most likely. They had all the momentum, and that was a almost for sure 14 point swing just on that play. Changed the momentum in an instance.

For tonight, I think the opening line at first glance was high, and that's why it dropped like a brick. But let's think on it. You have a rookie qb, who had a big game last game. Confidence booster right? .. Or is it more of a on average, can he string 2 stellar games, against a good team, together? odds say no, but your average person doesn't think like that. They think hey he is riding high and poised for a good game. Then you have barkley back for a few weeks now, and people factor that in with Vander esch being out and think he will have a break out game, helped by Jones being able to pass it. How often do you suppose those things line up out of 100 times? 30 maybe? Meanwhile Dallas have talent everywhere, and can't afford a loss. I think day is over rated, but he isn't playing against a good defensive back squad. Zeke has a all pro offensive line, going against against meeeeeh... defensive line. How often do you think they would have quality games? 75 out of 100? Given the talent difference on these teams outside of the questions and rb, and not even starting on cooper, it's lopsided for dallas. So play those scenarios out. If the Giants do get that play from Jones and barkley, they could win, but not by more than a td on average. Odds of a blowout by them may be 5 out of 100. On the other side, let's say day and zeke have games, they will win, flat out, no question, at least Athe least by 7 to 9, which is around the original line. But the probability of them blowing to them out is way higher, more like 25 out of 100. That probably reads like gibberish, but if you followed it, you'd probably agree that line is fair, and more likely for dallas. So the line is roughly right, but yet still gives an advantage. Dallas wins this game 80+ percent of the time, and cover it about 60-65 percent of the time. To the average better that cover doesn't look that great, but that's an amazing advantage, even if it falls on a day where they do what green bay did yesterday.

 

[Synopsis]

Also, make sure you're ready to hedge. Don't get greedy and let it ride if it's close late.

 

[Synopsis]

Dallas -2.5 first quarter is what is suspect in this game. It's +110... to a team that has given up more first quarter scores than anyone (don't quote me on that, but they give up a ton in the first quarter) and they most likely will be kicking off to Dallas to start...

 

[ChickenArise]

I got a lil bit of a hedge in with some free bets I got awarded. If Dallas goes up first I will roll out a lil bit more of a hedge. Its not big money we are talking as far as my bet goes.

The greed aspect would actually be in the attempt to middle.

Luckily it doesnt make sense to sacrifice all of the profit on an attempt to middle so we will trickle that out in the live betting each time Dallas achieves a new high lead and cap it locking up at least a 50% profit on the original wager.

Enjoy the game all and good luck.

PS, LOL. NYG INT 1st play. I was going to add if the game is rigged the Giants will score first and Dallas will have trouble all night. But I decided against suggesting this and then boom, Prescott serves up a gift. LMFAO!

 

[Synopsis]

Yet the live line went to -7.5 after that pick. Makes you think huh.

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 9 and overall

ribby (7-0)(28-36)
Risto (2-1)(11-11-1)
ChickenArise (4-2)(15-15-1)
imhighhommie (0-2)(12-12)
synopsis (0-0) (91-42)
TDTODDY (0-0)(15-11)
CRStals (4-2)(23-30)
an9312 (0-0)(1-0)
Aremaz95 (0-0)(21-14)
Pokerski (7-3) (25-13)
LeeCallaghan (0-0) (1-0)
terryk (0-0) (2-0)
riverokker(0-0) (1-1)
wewillrockyou (1-0) (9-3)
rmcmullen2003 (0-0) (1-1)
Jam V92 (0-0) (2-5)
mrrigel (2-2) (6-5-1)
odn(1-0)(1-0)


Nice picking folks! Nobody worse than .500 - well done! :star:

 

[PokerSki]

For Week 10

I think the following teams will win


Chargers
Baltimore
Buffalo
Saints
Gaints
Kanas City
Bears
Colts
Green Bay
Rams
Cowboys
49ers

 

[ribbybruno]

This week at a glance -

Thursday - Oakland (+1) @ Home vs Chargers - What a battle this could be! Gordon may be difference here being well rested.

Sunday - 6 Teams on bye? What is that? 2 teams then 4 teams then 6 ? don't get it

Giants vs Jets - Pre-Thanksgiving tailgate party for sure! Will anyone watch the game?

Lions @ Bears - Can Trubisky silence his critics? Time for Bears to circle the wagons and get back to nitty gritty.

Ravens @ Bengals - Let down game for Ravens after beating Patriots?

Buffalo @ Cleveland - Interesting match up! Another tough defense for Mayfield to play against

Chiefs @ Titans - Will Mahomes play and with what impact?

Atlanta @ Saints - Saints Defense will give fits! Thomas may have big day!

Cardinals @ Bucs - Over may be 70 in this game! wow only 51.5 right now - sounds good

Dolphins @ Colts - I get mixed emotions on this game. The way the Colts lost and Miami winning. Hmm - trap - game

Carolina @ Packers - After last week, Panthers winning and Green Bay losing makes for quite a battle - may be a good Over - check on Packer Defense for Home stats on points given up

LA Rams @ Pittsburgh - I like the well rested Rams in this spot. Steelers will have to deal with too many weapons

Minnesota @ Dallas - Start thinking points right away but also could be a grind it out kind of game with 2 good defenses. Nice Sunday night match up 2 weeks in a row.

(Mon) Seattle @ 49ers - Super showdown! This should be fun to watch! I would expect this game to go down to the wire. Russell Wilson and his legs may win this game.

 

[mrrigel]

Week 10:

NYJ/NYG over 43.5
Saints -13
Chargers -1

 

[imhighhommie]

Thursday action!

Oakland +1.5

Seems like Oakland wins this game outright. Not a believer in the Chargers at all. Lets gooo