NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[ChickenArise]

Official play:

This should be a 5 star play of the week. I might add more but definitely keying

Over 51.5 in Oakland at Houston

Leans:

This is a tough week. Seattle should be able to handle Atlanta but skeptical of laying the now -7.5 congrats if you got it at anywhere near -3.5

Can the bears cover a 3.5 point spread versus anyone? Lean San Diego +3.5

I had the same feeling about the Jags covering a 6.5 point spread, when do they ever do this? Alas the jets have too many injuries to overcome. Neutral. The defenses have been playing well enough to
lean under 40


Philadelphia just needs to keep it close to win this game. I think this is a good live bet on whomever falls behind by 2 scores first.

Cinci is just awful but asking the Rams to cover a double digit line this year is asking a lot. Lean to the Rams but wouldnt be surprised at a backdoor Cinci cover.

I like Arizona plus the double digits even though New Orleans is solid. Lean Arizona +12.5

Raiders on their 5th road game in a row should keep pace on offense but not on defense. Lean Houston -6.5

Carolina and San Francisco will have an added intangible of 24mph winds to contend with. There is some buzz about sharps on Carolina Money Line. I am neutral.

There is also some buzz about sharp money on the Denver money line. I dont see how they pull this off but will remain aware of this as I am placing my wagers.

Liking Cleveland to hang tough first half vs. New England before getting rolled on. Lean CLE 1st Half +7

Green Bay/Kansas City should go over even with Moore at the helm. Lean Over 47.5

 

[imhighhommie]

Titans -2.5
Indy -5
Jets +6.5
Giants+6.5

I feel like the Titans and Indy dominate at home, and riding both NY teams on the road. LETS GOOOOOO!!!
GL on all of yall's Sunday funday!

 

[ribbybruno]

NFL Betting Thread Results Week 7 Sunday

Sunday (1-5) -4.50Units/ -450 Overall (21-30) -12 Units/-$1200

Recap - 3 games didn't make Over the total by combined 9.5 points - ugh - (0-3) Cincy stinks (0-1) Vikings are solid (0-1) and Indy played well and won (1-0) (1-5)

Week 8 Sunday -

Seattle (-8) @ Atlanta - Ryan out - Falcons ugly defense should ignite Seahawk offense

Tampa Bay (+2.5) @ Tennessee - Bucs #1 run defense should make things interesting

Arizona (+12) @ New Orleans - No Kamara - Brees returns( rust ?) lol

Oakland/Houston Over 52 - another track meet

KC (+5.5) @ Home vs Green Bay - more running than throwing in this game - close to the end

1 Unit each - $100

Good luck all!

 

[ChickenArise]

What resources do you use pre game?

Hey guys. I am wondering if there is any other bulletin board or forum you use to get last minute sports information and why the heck the Broncos would be attracting wagers.

I use footballguys.com who email you player updates and have a free email subscription that keeps you up to date throughout the week on who is out and who is returning.

I also have a newsletter subscription to Clear Data Sports. They also email you some betting models and algos that they have run each week for free.

What do you guys like to use to help you handicap?


Adding official play:

In Cleveland CB Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams appear ready. Trying to get the first half CLE+7 and are willing to buy to 7 if it doesnt move by game time. Wont take CLE full game as Pats have been amazing in the second half but seem to pace to their opponents this year in the first half. Best of luck.

 

[ChickenArise]

Week 8 NFL lines scoresandodds.com

Week 8 NFL lines scoresandodds.com

 

[ChickenArise]

We got some rough weather games

We got some rough weather and high wind games. Check your weather before making your play.

http://www.nflweather.com/

 

[CRStals]

Let's go week 8! Good luck guys!!!

Buffalo -1 v Philadelphia
Chicago -3.5 v LA Chargers
NY Giants +6.5 v Detroit
NY Jets +7 v Jacksonville
Tennessee -2 v Tamp Bay
Houston -6 v Oakland

1 Unit Each

 

[LeeCallaghan]

KC CHIEFS BABY. Patrick mahomens are on fire!

 

[Synopsis]

I almost threw my phone at the end of the rams game. I bet rams -6 second half, but I parlayed it also with philly and saints second half @+610 and both of those individually. Dalton is a curse man, he took me from breaking even to a huge day. Something always happens if anything is on the line and he is involved.

 

[Synopsis]

I would be concerned with baker Mayfield playing in ne, in terrible weather. He's not exactly accurate even in good conditions.

The Browns gave it to ne first too just now... one less possession they will have in the half.

Adding official play:

In Cleveland CB Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams appear ready. Trying to get the first half CLE+7 and are willing to buy to 7 if it doesnt move by game time. Wont take CLE full game as Pats have been amazing in the second half but seem to pace to their opponents this year in the first half. Best of luck.

 

[FernA9ndo]

KC CHIEFS BABY. Patrick mahomens are on fire!

This is very true. Only concern is the Defense that are bad.

 

[Synopsis]

Chiefs have won 1 game this whole month, and Mahomes only had like 70 yards in that game. He isn't even playing tonight anyway. I'd be amazed if they won tonight.

This is very true. Only concern is the Defense that are bad.

 

[Risto234]

My bets for this weekend

Colts vs Broncos; over 42.0 @1.91
Bears vs Chargers; over 41.0 @1.95
Jaguars vs Jets; over 40.5 @1.91

Obviously you can't win all the time right ...
1 win and 2 losses so let's hope that start of november will be bit more succesful

 

[ribbybruno]

I took all my picks from the Daily Wager on ESPN this week just to see how they would fare. My answer (0-5) thanks experts lmao

My pick today - Pittsburgh (-14) @ Home vs Miami - Steelers pretty tough on Monday Night Football - maybe 200 yards on the ground

1 Unit - $100

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 8 and overall

ribby (0-6)(21-36)
Risto (1-2)(9-10-1)
ChickenArise (0-2)(11-13-1)
imhighhommie (2-2)(12-10)
synopsis (0-0) (91-42)
TDTODDY (0-0)(15-11)
CRStals (2-4)(19-28)
an9312 (0-0)(1-0)
Aremaz95 (0-0)(21-14)
Pokerski (4-1) (18-10)
LeeCallaghan (0-0) (1-0)
terryk (0-0) (2-0)
riverokker(0-0) (1-1)
wewillrockyou (0-0) (8-3)
rmcmullen2003 (0-0) (1-1)
Jam V92 (0-0) (2-5)
mrrigel (3-1) (4-3-1)

 

[ribbybruno]

Aremaz95 - checked out covers do we all have to register on that sight to be on it

 

[ribbybruno]

Checking out this weeks games -

I kind of like Miami (+3) @ home vs Jets - beat them twice last year - need a win

Patriots Defense vs Baltimore offense and vice versa - fun Sunday night match up

Denver (+3.5) @ Home vs Cleveland - Mile High Weather should make this interesting

Carolina (-3.5) @ Home vs Titans - Panthers need to rebound from 49er loss

Packers (-3) @ LA Chargers - I don't see Chargers keeping pace with Packers

Oakland (-2) @ Home vs Detroit - Raiders played tough last week and lost - be good to be home - maybe a good under in this spot

Seattle/ Tampa Over 51 -Bucs have been over past 5 games in a row

Dallas/NYG Over 48 on Monday night - maybe I won't lose by 1 point this time lol

 

[Synopsis]

You don't think Miami is purposely losing? They destroy Washington at the end of that game and have all the momentum going for them, but go for 2, with a terrible, terrible play call... almost like they didn't want it at all, and lose by 1... to a team that like them was winless... now they are playing are 1 win team. Why would they want to risk a win against a team that possibly won't win again this season? Did you watch the game against pitt? You see that abrupt play calling change after they went up 14-0 in like 3 minutes? They never scored again. The dolphins would have to beat the jets, and the Miami coaching staff to win. Besides that, if you don't believe teams tank (they are obviously in a fire sale) you have a running back that doesn't want to leave ny, and was almost traded away. He has underperformed, and is now facing the worst rush defence in the league. A rush defence that's in a short week too. Look what conner did to them. You also have a stud safety who is Pissed off that he was in trade talk, and you'd have to think he is going to play top level now on a ego thing, and a get paid thing. Pair that with a team that loves to turn the ball over and and qb that seems to target the opposite team more than his own. If I played this game, I'd play the jets, and probably buy the hook. The Jets should blow them out, but even if they are the Jets of the last 2 weeks, the coaches are going to help them out. That's a lot to overcome for miami.

Take away the turnovers and Cleveland kind of outplayed the pats last week. Fast rb (fastest player in the nfl) who should be able to hit the line before Denvers fast olbs can crash down. Last week was a little flukey for him with those fumbles, the weather was crazy. Baker is baker, a poor man's farve so far in his career but if they can get a early lead I bet he has a big game. He can't play from behind at all. The talent discrepancy between these teams is really huge, but then again the Browns don't tend to play up to their potential. At 3, I'd have to side with the browns.

Carolina are just a better team than the titans, but they have kind of hit a funk. I'd side with them too but I'd rather buy the hook and have it at 3.

That Oakland game really seems fishy. They could win if they play well, but doesn't it feel like the lines should be reversed? After week 2, the Lions have been really consistent, even in the games they lost. My way of seeing this game is to ask a question. Do you think the Lions score 26 or more points? If you dont, then Oakland is the play.

Packers line seems off to me, I bet it right when the lines came out. They are better than people give credit to, meanwhile the chargers are pretty bad, even though they won last week. Gordon hasn't done anything since he came back. Could be a ugly game.

Seattle dials it back with a lead, they dialed it so far back last week that they almost gave up a 20+ point lead in the second half. Tampa Bay is so inconsistent. They have the offensive talent to put up points, and I mean a ton of points. The problem is that currently Winston looks like a poor man's Mayfield if he has one of those 4 turnover days, Seattle will just milk with a double digit lead in the second half. That over under play is all about what you think Tampa Bay will do.

I like that Dallas over. I see it at like 33 to 17 on average. If jones makes some rookie mistakes, i could see dallas putting up 40+. Perhaps higher if the Giants keep it either 10 for the majority of the game where Dallas needs to get a 2 to cushion, like 38 to 24. Barkley hasn't been the same caliber since he came back, but Jones has put up numbers. 31 to 24 seems reasonable if it stays competitive. Either way, I see it going over 48 unless there it's an upset if the Giants hope to win, they have to keep this to a 20-17, 21/20, 24/20 type of game. They won't win a shootout, and that's the only thing I'd be concerned about in this game, if the Giants purposely control the clock all game.

Good luck ribby, hope you cash at least most of these.

Checking out this weeks games -

I kind of like Miami (+3) @ home vs Jets - beat them twice last year - need a win

Patriots Defense vs Baltimore offense and vice versa - fun Sunday night match up

Denver (+3.5) @ Home vs Cleveland - Mile High Weather should make this interesting

Carolina (-3.5) @ Home vs Titans - Panthers need to rebound from 49er loss

Packers (-3) @ LA Chargers - I don't see Chargers keeping pace with Packers

Oakland (-2) @ Home vs Detroit - Raiders played tough last week and lost - be good to be home - maybe a good under in this spot

Seattle/ Tampa Over 51 -Bucs have been over past 5 games in a row

Dallas/NYG Over 48 on Monday night - maybe I won't lose by 1 point this time lol

 

[ribbybruno]

You don't think Miami is purposely losing? They destroy Washington at the end of that game and have all the momentum going for them, but go for 2, with a terrible, terrible play call... almost like they didn't want it at all, and lose by 1... to a team that like them was winless... now they are playing are 1 win team. Why would they want to risk a win against a team that possibly won't win again this season? Did you watch the game against pitt? You see that abrupt play calling change after they went up 14-0 in like 3 minutes? They never scored again. The dolphins would have to beat the jets, and the Miami coaching staff to win. Besides that, if you don't believe teams tank (they are obviously in a fire sale) you have a running back that doesn't want to leave ny, and was almost traded away. He has underperformed, and is now facing the worst rush defence in the league. A rush defence that's in a short week too. Look what conner did to them. You also have a stud safety who is Pissed off that he was in trade talk, and you'd have to think he is going to play top level now on a ego thing, and a get paid thing. Pair that with a team that loves to turn the ball over and and qb that seems to target the opposite team more than his own. If I played this game, I'd play the jets, and probably buy the hook. The Jets should blow them out, but even if they are the Jets of the last 2 weeks, the coaches are going to help them out. That's a lot to overcome for miami.

Take away the turnovers and Cleveland kind of outplayed the pats last week. Fast rb (fastest player in the nfl) who should be able to hit the line before Denvers fast olbs can crash down. Last week was a little flukey for him with those fumbles, the weather was crazy. Baker is baker, a poor man's farve so far in his career but if they can get a early lead I bet he has a big game. He can't play from behind at all. The talent discrepancy between these teams is really huge, but then again the Browns don't tend to play up to their potential. At 3, I'd have to side with the browns.

Carolina are just a better team than the titans, but they have kind of hit a funk. I'd side with them too but I'd rather buy the hook and have it at 3.

That Oakland game really seems fishy. They could win if they play well, but doesn't it feel like the lines should be reversed? After week 2, the Lions have been really consistent, even in the games they lost. My way of seeing this game is to ask a question. Do you think the Lions score 26 or more points? If you dont, then Oakland is the play.

Packers line seems off to me, I bet it right when the lines came out. They are better than people give credit to, meanwhile the chargers are pretty bad, even though they won last week. Gordon hasn't done anything since he came back. Could be a ugly game.

Seattle dials it back with a lead, they dialed it so far back last week that they almost gave up a 20+ point lead in the second half. Tampa Bay is so inconsistent. They have the offensive talent to put up points, and I mean a ton of points. The problem is that currently Winston looks like a poor man's Mayfield if he has one of those 4 turnover days, Seattle will just milk with a double digit lead in the second half. That over under play is all about what you think Tampa Bay will do.

I like that Dallas over. I see it at like 33 to 17 on average. If jones makes some rookie mistakes, i could see dallas putting up 40+. Perhaps higher if the Giants keep it either 10 for the majority of the game where Dallas needs to get a 2 to cushion, like 38 to 24. Barkley hasn't been the same caliber since he came back, but Jones has put up numbers. 31 to 24 seems reasonable if it stays competitive. Either way, I see it going over 48 unless there it's an upset if the Giants hope to win, they have to keep this to a 20-17, 21/20, 24/20 type of game. They won't win a shootout, and that's the only thing I'd be concerned about in this game, if the Giants purposely control the clock all game.

Good luck ribby, hope you cash at least most of these.

I appreciate the info! Eye opening to say the least! My performance of late has been sub par and I need to get back on track. I haven't bet anything yet. Just some thoughts when I saw the lines at first glance. I will be off tomorrow and I am going to dig in deep!

 

[Risto234]

Let's start november with 3 bets

Broncos vs Browns; over 39.0 @1.91
Bills vs Redskins; over 36.5 @1.91
Dolphins vs Jets; over 41.0 @1.91

 

[mrrigel]

Week 9

IND -1
PHI -5
NYJ/MIA over 41
PATS -3.5

 

[PokerSki]

For Week 9, I think the following teams will win.


49ers
Texans
Kansas City
Colts
Dolphins
Carolina
Seattle
Broncos
Green Bay
Patriots

 

[ChickenArise]

Official Plays:

Teaser (backed by Clear Data Sports algo) :
Dolphins* +10 vs New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers* +7 vs Indianapolis Colts


Philly -4
Cleveland Browns -4
Tampa +5
Green Bay -3.5

Leans:
Steelers u 40.5
Raiders o 51.5

 

[Synopsis]

Some stats aren't on paper. I've never been a fan of algorithms, or touts for that matter.

Official Plays:

Teaser (backed by Clear Data Sports algo) :
Dolphins* +10 vs New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers* +7 vs Indianapolis Colts

 

[CRStals]

Week 9...lets go!!

Washington +10.5 v Buffalo
Miami +3 v NY Jets
Carolina - 3.5 v Tennessee
Indianapolis +1 v Pittsburgh
Oakland -2.5 v Detroit
Denver +4 v Cleveland