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Cincy -3 second half
Ugly game. They have 100 yards, but have only given up 80. They have the only turnover of the game but are still up 6-0. All of that, and being home, I'll take are shot that they are least get a free more.
Ugly game. They have 100 yards, but have only given up 80. They have the only turnover of the game but are still up 6-0. All of that, and being home, I'll take are shot that they are least get a free more.
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Silver Level
I'll take those 7.5 points on Oregon state Second half. They are playing good, and I think they are going to win straight up so why would I not take over a td here?
Side note, even though I've lost money on it, this Oregon game is stupid good this last quarter. I got out of the full, but lost that first half. I want them to lose to take one more option away from the cfp committee.
Side note, even though I've lost money on it, this Oregon game is stupid good this last quarter. I got out of the full, but lost that first half. I want them to lose to take one more option away from the cfp committee.
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Legend
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Utah -10 Second half
I've been wrong today mostly with thinking teams won't just shut down the second half, but it's hard for me to not think Utah can't manage this line. They started good, but slowed down a little to have a 14 to 0 lead at half. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong, but I like the value here.
Edit... I'm going to bet this again actually. It's too much to ignore. They have 300 yards and have given up 50. They just haven been great on converting that to points. To me, that's a good thing, as it gives value to this line
Going to bet Washington -6.5 also. They are getting embarrassed and I'm banking they come out and play for pride.
I've been wrong today mostly with thinking teams won't just shut down the second half, but it's hard for me to not think Utah can't manage this line. They started good, but slowed down a little to have a 14 to 0 lead at half. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong, but I like the value here.
Edit... I'm going to bet this again actually. It's too much to ignore. They have 300 yards and have given up 50. They just haven been great on converting that to points. To me, that's a good thing, as it gives value to this line
Going to bet Washington -6.5 also. They are getting embarrassed and I'm banking they come out and play for pride.
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Synopsis
Legend
Silver Level
16-5 this week
Was a good week, only a few buy outs, but a few disappointing bets. Rice and Cincy stick out the most to me, they both got leads and just sat on them. I hate coaching like that, but whatever, it's done. I still like the osu over, but that game slowed to a crawl. Reminds me of the lsu Alabama game where one team got the big lead, and the other team came back to barely lose. Should Penn state be punished for it? Not in my opinion, they will though. Georgia just looks ok, Oregon should take be in the picture anymore.
Here is my top 5 in order. Lsu, osu, clemson, alabama, utah. You could argue I'm biased with alabama, but they have 1 loss, against the top ranked team, in a game where literally everything that's weird that could happen, happened in the first first half, then Bama won the 2nd half easy, and would have won the game if they had a few more minutes. Utah lost to usc, that's a bigger loss to me, by a ton. Georgia doesn't look as good as either of them. If Bama beats auburn considerably and utah win their divisions championship game, it's a 50/50, because Oregon just isn't what they are hyped to be. I assume lsu, and osu will win out, as will clemson because they are in a 1 team conference. Maybe some weird stuff happens this coming week. If I had to say who I see being in the playoffs, it's lsu, osu, clemson, and utah. I think alabama messed up by only letting go Jones pass 12 times (he still had 250+ yards). I think they should have tried to showcase him so the cfp committee could see alabama may be better than expected without tua. Unless Jones has a mammoth game against auburn, like a 32 for 40, 400 yard, 5 to game, I don't think alabama will get a lot of consideration. I'm still not sure why Georgia is above them.
Win - Emu ml @+190
Win - Emu +3 second half
Loss - Colorado state second half +3
Win - Minnesota -13
Win - Minnesota -7 first half
Loss - Oregon -7 first half
Win - Ucf -2.5
Win - Michigan state -20
Win - Michigan state -13 first half.
Win - Arkansas +45
Loss - Penn state/Osu over 56.5
Win - App state -10 second half
Win - Michigan -2.5
Win - ND -7 second half
Loss -Rice +3.5 Second half
Win - Oregon State +10.5
Loss - Cincy -3 second half
Win - Oregon State +7.5 second half
Win - Utah -10 second half
Win - Utah -10 second half (made a second bet)
Win - Washington -6.5 second half
Regret of the week, not betting more on utah, and talking myself out of the Nebraska/Maryland game.
Was a good week, only a few buy outs, but a few disappointing bets. Rice and Cincy stick out the most to me, they both got leads and just sat on them. I hate coaching like that, but whatever, it's done. I still like the osu over, but that game slowed to a crawl. Reminds me of the lsu Alabama game where one team got the big lead, and the other team came back to barely lose. Should Penn state be punished for it? Not in my opinion, they will though. Georgia just looks ok, Oregon should take be in the picture anymore.
Here is my top 5 in order. Lsu, osu, clemson, alabama, utah. You could argue I'm biased with alabama, but they have 1 loss, against the top ranked team, in a game where literally everything that's weird that could happen, happened in the first first half, then Bama won the 2nd half easy, and would have won the game if they had a few more minutes. Utah lost to usc, that's a bigger loss to me, by a ton. Georgia doesn't look as good as either of them. If Bama beats auburn considerably and utah win their divisions championship game, it's a 50/50, because Oregon just isn't what they are hyped to be. I assume lsu, and osu will win out, as will clemson because they are in a 1 team conference. Maybe some weird stuff happens this coming week. If I had to say who I see being in the playoffs, it's lsu, osu, clemson, and utah. I think alabama messed up by only letting go Jones pass 12 times (he still had 250+ yards). I think they should have tried to showcase him so the cfp committee could see alabama may be better than expected without tua. Unless Jones has a mammoth game against auburn, like a 32 for 40, 400 yard, 5 to game, I don't think alabama will get a lot of consideration. I'm still not sure why Georgia is above them.
Win - Emu ml @+190
Win - Emu +3 second half
Loss - Colorado state second half +3
Win - Minnesota -13
Win - Minnesota -7 first half
Loss - Oregon -7 first half
Win - Ucf -2.5
Win - Michigan state -20
Win - Michigan state -13 first half.
Win - Arkansas +45
Loss - Penn state/Osu over 56.5
Win - App state -10 second half
Win - Michigan -2.5
Win - ND -7 second half
Loss -Rice +3.5 Second half
Win - Oregon State +10.5
Loss - Cincy -3 second half
Win - Oregon State +7.5 second half
Win - Utah -10 second half
Win - Utah -10 second half (made a second bet)
Win - Washington -6.5 second half
Regret of the week, not betting more on utah, and talking myself out of the Nebraska/Maryland game.
ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
I posted yesterday at 11:45 am -so probably after 11:30 am or so - no not sure on the movement
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Legend
Silver Level
So it either got bet up around the original line, or it was put back to the original line... hmm... maybe it was an error and they took down and changed the wrong line? It stuck out when I saw it, that's why I bet it. Kind of strange it ended up within half a point. I'm kind of leaning more toward error now, it was up at least 5 minutes though because I looked all around for if anyone was out, which would have been weird to be done then anyway because it was like 3 or 4am when I saw it. They paid the ticket so I guess I'm fine with not knowing for sure.
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Early plays...
Miss State -2.5
They have played a way way harder schedule, top 10 in the country, and they are home at less than a fg. I'm not going to look further into it than that.
Georgia -27
Bad match up for tech. I don't see tech getting double digits here, and I think Georgia needs a offensive confidence boost before lsu. Perfect spot for it.
Ohio state -8.5
Simple thinking here. I think Penn state are better than Michigan, and Osu beat them last week by double digits while not playing their best.
Alabama -3
I'm a Bama fan and this is the iron bowl. I think Jones, while no tua, is better than Bo. Alabama has the better recievers. They have the better backs. I do think auburn has a more complete defence, but I picture Bo making some mistakes here that are costly. I think Bama impress here. Keep in mind, this is there last game of the season if they don't get into the cfp, so they will be balls out to impress. I'm betting this one large,
Michigan State -20
Too much defence here for maryland. I could see a similar game as msu's last game but I expect a few more points.
Some leans I'm looking at...
Smu -3
To end there big comeback season, line seems really low.
lsu -17
I'm concerned how lsu will play this game in prep for the sec championship. Hard to not think they can get a&m by 20 here though.
ND -14
I'm likely going to play this one. ND would have to have an absolute miracle happen to get into the cfp. That said, you can only do what you're in control of, and running up the score here is absolutely needed, and is the only thing they can control.
Edit... I'm going to play the ND and smu line. They see starting to move and I want it at key numbers.
Miss State -2.5
They have played a way way harder schedule, top 10 in the country, and they are home at less than a fg. I'm not going to look further into it than that.
Georgia -27
Bad match up for tech. I don't see tech getting double digits here, and I think Georgia needs a offensive confidence boost before lsu. Perfect spot for it.
Ohio state -8.5
Simple thinking here. I think Penn state are better than Michigan, and Osu beat them last week by double digits while not playing their best.
Alabama -3
I'm a Bama fan and this is the iron bowl. I think Jones, while no tua, is better than Bo. Alabama has the better recievers. They have the better backs. I do think auburn has a more complete defence, but I picture Bo making some mistakes here that are costly. I think Bama impress here. Keep in mind, this is there last game of the season if they don't get into the cfp, so they will be balls out to impress. I'm betting this one large,
Michigan State -20
Too much defence here for maryland. I could see a similar game as msu's last game but I expect a few more points.
Some leans I'm looking at...
Smu -3
To end there big comeback season, line seems really low.
lsu -17
I'm concerned how lsu will play this game in prep for the sec championship. Hard to not think they can get a&m by 20 here though.
ND -14
I'm likely going to play this one. ND would have to have an absolute miracle happen to get into the cfp. That said, you can only do what you're in control of, and running up the score here is absolutely needed, and is the only thing they can control.
Edit... I'm going to play the ND and smu line. They see starting to move and I want it at key numbers.
ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
Thanks! I am better poker player than a sports gambler.
I got lucky to flush out for the win!
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Legend
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I actually caught it when it was last 3. I was in a poker mood and it was on that menu page due to me really just playing cc games and I saw that one running so I had a peek. I was quietly railing you brother. Nice win.
Thanks! I am better poker player than a sports gambler.
ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
Saturday(10-8) +$200 /+2.0 Units Overall (87-99-6) -$1200/ -12.00 Units
First Impressions Week 14
Friday -
V Tech (-3) @ Virginia - Hokies rolling! Cavaliers played Liberty last week
Cincy (+11) @ Memphis - 2 losses between both teams should make for quite a game
Arkansas St. (-12.5) @ South Alabama - Jaguars have lost 9 straight
Saturday -
Michigan (+8) @ Ohio State - Wolverines have covered last 5 straight
Illinois (-8.5) @ Home vs NW - Illini have covered 6 straight
Wake Forest (-4) @ Syracuse - Orangemen 1-5 last 6
Alabama (-3.5) @ Auburn - 2 young QBs going at it - should be fun - just like Tide in this spot
Wisconsin (-2.5) @ Minnesota - Can you say payback real loud. Taylor has big day!
Oregon St (+19) @ Oregon - Beavers have covered 4 of last 5
Kansas St. (+4.5) @ Home vs Iowa St - Wildcats lost by only 4 @ Cyclones last year
Oklahoma St (+13.5) @ Home vs Oklahoma - Sooner 0-4 ATS last 4
Hawaii (-3) @ Home vs Army - Rainbows have my vote after shutting down Aztecs to 11 points last week
San Jose St (+3) @ Home vs Fresno St. - Battle of the underachiever bowl in the Mountain West
San Diego St (+3) @ Home vs BYU -lets try the Aztecs at home this time plus 3
First Impressions Week 14
Friday -
V Tech (-3) @ Virginia - Hokies rolling! Cavaliers played Liberty last week
Cincy (+11) @ Memphis - 2 losses between both teams should make for quite a game
Arkansas St. (-12.5) @ South Alabama - Jaguars have lost 9 straight
Saturday -
Michigan (+8) @ Ohio State - Wolverines have covered last 5 straight
Illinois (-8.5) @ Home vs NW - Illini have covered 6 straight
Wake Forest (-4) @ Syracuse - Orangemen 1-5 last 6
Alabama (-3.5) @ Auburn - 2 young QBs going at it - should be fun - just like Tide in this spot
Wisconsin (-2.5) @ Minnesota - Can you say payback real loud. Taylor has big day!
Oregon St (+19) @ Oregon - Beavers have covered 4 of last 5
Kansas St. (+4.5) @ Home vs Iowa St - Wildcats lost by only 4 @ Cyclones last year
Oklahoma St (+13.5) @ Home vs Oklahoma - Sooner 0-4 ATS last 4
Hawaii (-3) @ Home vs Army - Rainbows have my vote after shutting down Aztecs to 11 points last week
San Jose St (+3) @ Home vs Fresno St. - Battle of the underachiever bowl in the Mountain West
San Diego St (+3) @ Home vs BYU -lets try the Aztecs at home this time plus 3
ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
Orangemen only covered once in last 7 games. May be a track meet! I don't know if Syracuse can keep pace with Deamon Deacon offense. I think the line is okay seems close.
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Just seems off to me. Just going off stats and tendencies this should be a double digit beat down. I already bet it, so if they got me on the hook, then so be it.
ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
Friday -
Virginia Tech (-2) @ Virginia - Hokies a better team in my opinion - won bigger games and have a pretty good rushing attack - lost by only 1 to Notre Dame
Cincy (+12) @ Memphis - spread seems high for 2 losses between the teams - did not play each other last year
Arkansas St (-11) @ South Alabama - Jaguars lost 9 straight - trend all season - cover 2 games - not cover 2 games - did not cover last week in middle of trend
1 Unit Each -$100
Virginia Tech (-2) @ Virginia - Hokies a better team in my opinion - won bigger games and have a pretty good rushing attack - lost by only 1 to Notre Dame
Cincy (+12) @ Memphis - spread seems high for 2 losses between the teams - did not play each other last year
Arkansas St (-11) @ South Alabama - Jaguars lost 9 straight - trend all season - cover 2 games - not cover 2 games - did not cover last week in middle of trend
1 Unit Each -$100
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Dang... forgot to post my plays... again... I did that last week. That suckered
Colorado state +7.5 second half
Deceiving line, yeah they are losing by 10, but 10 points came from a combined 24 yards due to 2 turnovers by Colorado state right after kickoff. They have scored both of the times they had the ball and didn't turn it over, so they can score, just need to clean up those turnovers, or at least don't commit them deep on their side.
App state -10 hook
This is almost a troy fade for me. Troy has fallen apart over the season. You add that to the fact that this is actually an important game for app and is meaningless to troy, I really like this spot.
Memphis and cincy are playing a nice game. Has kind of been a game of bursts thus far. 6.5 seems right, that over is really suspect though... I'm inclined to bet the under, but I will pass.
Colorado state +7.5 second half
Deceiving line, yeah they are losing by 10, but 10 points came from a combined 24 yards due to 2 turnovers by Colorado state right after kickoff. They have scored both of the times they had the ball and didn't turn it over, so they can score, just need to clean up those turnovers, or at least don't commit them deep on their side.
App state -10 hook
This is almost a troy fade for me. Troy has fallen apart over the season. You add that to the fact that this is actually an important game for app and is meaningless to troy, I really like this spot.
Memphis and cincy are playing a nice game. Has kind of been a game of bursts thus far. 6.5 seems right, that over is really suspect though... I'm inclined to bet the under, but I will pass.
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Legend
Silver Level
Going to bet Iowa live, the line is shifting every possession now. 10 minutes to go and Nebraska has all the momentum at home, and winning the second half 14 to 0 in a tied game. It's +122 for Iowa right now after punting it to nebraska, but nebraska will have to drive the whole field. If Iowa gets a early stop they will have great field position.
Going to gamble on Missouri too live. They are up 3, but Arkansas just got in fg position and have first down. Line dipped to 2.5. I think Missouri will score on them even if they get a td here
Going to gamble on Missouri too live. They are up 3, but Arkansas just got in fg position and have first down. Line dipped to 2.5. I think Missouri will score on them even if they get a td here
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App state -4 second half
They are up 21, but I don't really see a reason for them to let up all that much. Couple that with the live line going to be half a point under the score when troy have the ball, and the opposite when app have it, this would be easy to buy out of, so really the value here is risking only the juice from a buy out to get the full unit return. I take advantage of these situations whenever I can.
They are up 21, but I don't really see a reason for them to let up all that much. Couple that with the live line going to be half a point under the score when troy have the ball, and the opposite when app have it, this would be easy to buy out of, so really the value here is risking only the juice from a buy out to get the full unit return. I take advantage of these situations whenever I can.
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Legend
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I wasn't going to bet usf and ucf but the more I look at this, ucf has a ton of plus factors here. It's at home, it's at rivalry game, it's the last game the seniors, and some of the others who will declare for the draft, will ever play at this stadium. The senior class basically birthed ucf's relevance. This is a big deal in my mind. Not only the last home game for so,excited of these players, but for some with NFL aspirations, it could be their last game as a member of ucf because some will likely sit out a bowl game as so many do to keep from having a injury. Both teams have underperformed but clearly ucf have been better. Usf have terrible run defence, and ucf have a really good back. Not only should he have a big game, but it should have the usf defence on the ropes about to play run or pass all game. I'd be really surprised if this isn't a epic beat down. I've bought the hook to have it at 23 flat.
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I like it. I also like just doing the spread parlay in both but buying max points. It would pay more and would be Bama -1 out -6