My thoughts on some games. I've bet the 3 I already mentioned, but I included them here with information. I'll probably take the ones I like the most and bet them, maybe even at half units, because I won't be around for any of the early or mid games, and if Alabama wins tomorrow, I won't be around for the night games either. So I dont want too much action when it's out of my control since I won't be looking at live lines.
Clemson -32 My thoughts on this is pretty simple. NC state have a freshman qb, making only his second start. Their top 2 running backs were injured last game, and are questionable to play. Their starting mlb was also injured last game and is questionable here. My thoughts on that is why bring them into this game not healthy, when you most likely know you're losing anyway? Rest them up. On the other side clemson is ranked 5 in the cfp rankings. They need to impress every game to get in that 4 spot and stay there. They know Alabama or Lsu will take a loss tomorrow. They know Penn state and Ohio state play later. All of these teams have and better body of work if they finish without another loss besides the ones these 2 games will bring. They need to play lights out and look unstoppable because their best claim to the ctp is style points. Simple as that. Otherwise, NC state have looked terrible anyway, getting blown out left and right.
Fsu +3 This play is solely based on me believing this line should be reversed. The reasons it's like this is because that whooping fsu got against Miami, who looked great in that game. These teams are similar, but fsu has had the 12th hardest schedule in the country and still has pretty much the same record as boston. That's my only reasoning. I'm not going to dig into it more than that. Sometimes simple is best.
Virginia -15. I won't play this at 15. If it drops to 14, I'm in. I don't think it will, but this could be a good game to put in a teaser. If the line falls, I will go more in depth for my reasoning.
Louisville +7 Probably the best upset game for any game that's 7 or higher. I think Louisville can hold them to fgs in the red zone more often than not. They are a offensive team, so should be able to get some points in themselves. They either win, or get blown out. I think they ein this game more often than not and at over +200 might be worth a stab at it.
Osu -42.5 I've bet on osu every game this year, and haven't lost a single bet on them, including second halves. This is a lot to cover though, and they will be missing get their best player, and probably the best defensive player in the country. If osu won 59 to 17 this bet would still win if you take the points. That seems reasonable right? Maryland totally imploded, but with this many points, you'd have to at least give them a look here.
Cincy -35 a lot of points here also, but they are playing the brother of UMass here. Uconn are terrible, flat out. They are one of those teams that a under performing offense, like Cincy has been, can put 60+ on if they push it. 52- 13 seems like a fair prediction here.
Wake forest -2 wake has way outperformed vtech on paper, but the few games they have in common, vtech performed better than wake. Wake has had a harder schedule though so their overall stats look even a little bit better than vtech, and they certainly looked good last week. Would have to give wake a better chance to win by 2, than vtech to win, or keep it under 2.
Penn state -6.5 I'll be short here. Penn state have proven themselves multiple times, Minnesota hasnt. I'll be a full believer if Minnesota get the upset, but until then, less than a td for Penn state looks like a absolute bargin.
Usc +1.5 yeah they haven't looked so great lately, but fact is is that they have a better record, while having played the 9th hardest schedule in the country (az states is 73rd in the country). The few game they have in common are lopsided to usc, a 15 point difference between the 2 on average of those games. Usc should be a fg favorite here, not a underdog.
Baylor -3 this line will fall under that I believe. At first I thought tcu will upset them, and they could, but I saw one Stat that jumped out to me. They have played 3 common opponents. Tcu was 0-3 against those teams losing by an average of 13... Baylor was 3-0 in those games, and won by a average of 13... 26 point game difference. That's hard to ignore.
Alabama -5.5 not going to cap this game. I will say this... I think the line should be -2.5 for lsu. If it was at lsu then i think the line should be -6 for them. I'm on Bama because that's my team, and I'll actually be there to see the game.
Kansas state +7 I think they should be a slight favorite in this game, so the fact they are getting a td is surprising and hard to ignore. I think they are equal to, or better than Texas in just about every aspect.
Purdue +3 I think I spoke about this game already. Another case of where the line looks like it should be reversed. Nw have looked terrible all year, and Purdue seems to be getting steady after all the injuries.
