College Football Thread 2019/2020

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Glad I did bet that over. I didn't end up watching the game, I was in a deep run in a poker tournament and that money outweighed what I had on this game, so I can't say what happened, but what I see by the stats is that they did next to nothing until the end of the first half, then reverted to the same runs the second half until the 4th quarter, which they won 14 to 0. I'd have room assume the coaching made bad calls during key times, because they out gained them by almost 100.

I see Baylor didn't even score as many points as they were supposed to win by. I didn't think they would cover, but I expected more points than that for sure. It's been a hell of a week for underdogs, in every sport. So many underdogs winning straight up and covering easy.
 
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Yesterday was pretty ugly! Let's get uglier!

UCONN +26

1 Unit - $100
 
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Yesterday was pretty ugly! Let's get uglier!

UCONN +26

1 Unit - $100

I need to stop this now! That was sure ugly losing 56-10 with a 14 in every quarter. Perry for Midshipmen had a nice game.

UConn (+27) @ Home vs Navy - could get ugly, I would want 28 points if I were on the dog. Who knows though, maybe last week gave rhem a boost to confidence and they play like Alabama this week... probably not. quote by synopsis :D

Thursday and Friday (0-3 -$300 Overall (62-70-6) -$800


Saturday -

Liberty (-23) @ UMass - Minutemen (1-7 ATS)

Florida (+6.5) vs Georgia in Jax - Just not liking Bulldog vibe right now. Something amiss?

Air Force (-17) @ Home vs Army - Like the Falcons here

Florida St (-3) @ Home vs Miami - Seminoles playing well! One heck of a game here!

Utah (-3) @ Washington - Utes Defense must come to play

Tennessee (-13) @ Home vs UAB - Volunteers should run this up!

Indiana (-10) @ Home vs Northwestern - Hoosiers will roll

SMU (+5) @ Memphis - it will be close or Mustangs get blown out lol

North Carolina (-1.5) @ Home vs Virginia - Feel some Mack Brown magic coming again

USC(+4) @ Home vs Oregon - Got to stick with Trojans as dog

1 Unit Each - $100
 
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I'm looking at smu right now. Trying to find the reasoning they are the dog.
 
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Liberty (-23) @ UMass - Minutemen (1-7 ATS) you know what... maybe they won't win, but I think this can be a competitive game. Liberty isn't exactly a powerhouse. UMass puts up enough points usually to make having to outscore them by 23 seem like a lot here for a team like liberty.

Florida (+6.5) vs Georgia in Jax - Just not liking Bulldog vibe right now. Something amiss? - I don't like the vibe either, but on paper Georgia should win this by double digits as I said days ago. I'm staying away from this game, but Georgia even though not looking so great at first glance, actually lead the whole nation in a lot of key stats.

Air Force (-17) @ Home vs Army - Like the Falcons here. - air force has them outclassed by the stats for sure. Is this considered a rivalry game? Line looks legit to me.

Florida St (-3) @ Home vs Miami - Seminoles playing well! One heck of a game here! - I just saw this on a local late night sports show (I live in florida) and they showe'd the simulation for this game to be florida state winning 52.95 percent of the time. The problem I have with that is that Florida state has been a much better team this last month than they were the first month, so those stats are a big misleading to me. I'd say it's closer to adding 10 percent to that.

Utah (-3) @ Washington - Utes Defense must come to play - you know what surprised me when I looked deeper into this game? Utah has better passing per attempt, and completion percentage. That really shocked me. Something is nagging me on this game, maybe it's Utahs weak schedule(79th strongest) to Washington's(33rd) it just makea their stats look more concrete. Both these teams control the ball at a high clip, maybe the under is a play here.

Tennessee (-13) @ Home vs UAB - Volunteers should run this up! - UAB has the 130th ranked schedule in the country... Tennessee has the 22nd up to this point. Like I said before, UAB will have to show me those stats are legit, or if it's just fluff like I suspect, I bet this way early at 10, but 13 still seems like a winner to me.

Indiana (-10) @ Home vs Northwestern - Hoosiers will roll - this line looks much better without it being in limbo at 11.5. I'm familiar with these two teams play, and honestly the only thing I can give a nod to nw over Indiana is that their red zone defence is pretty decent. And special teams now that I think on it. Indiana doesn't have the greatest of special teams.

SMU (+5) @ Memphis - it will be close or Mustangs get blown out lol. - I just think SMU are more battle tested. They also run almost 20 more offensive plays a game than Memphis does. 2nd in the country I believe.

North Carolina (-1.5) @ Home vs Virginia - Feel some Mack Brown magic coming again - I really think this is a coin flip.

USC(+4) @ Home vs Oregon - Got to stick with Trojans as dog - I just feel Oregon handles business here the more I think on it. They just have better defence, point blank.
 
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The only early games I really like is Michigan with the hook, buffalo as a underdog, and.... I'm going to say this, for the only time this year, and maybe years to come.... ball state. I only like ball state because people have bet it all the way down to 3.5, and juiced on akron, so I like it with the cheap hook since the other side is juiced. I think it opened at 6.5.
 
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Some interesting line movement.

Indiana all the way to -8
Kansas state steady going down, -4.5
Oregon dropped half a point to -3.5
Pitt went up 2 points to -9.5. That sucks, I was hoping it dropped half a point to 7.
Smu picked up another point to +6
Juice is on miami, that may drop to 2.5

I've been fighting that Georgia line since it came out, but the numbers are too strong for me to ignore. I'm going to tease that game with smu, and Kansas state. The reason I'm teasing it is because the numbers tell me one thing on these games, but I'm still iffy on them. This ultimately just makes them 1 play instead of 3.
 
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Going to hop on fsu -2.5 I bought the hook here, but in total it was only -115

Going to hop on Kansas state also at -4. They have the better talent, and I'm hoping this is a game that Kansas plays like kansas, instead of those few games they look like a top 10 team.
 
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On Illinois, colorado state, and north texas. Looking at Smu money line. Going to try ball state second half since it's even money at less than a fg. They get the ball first also.
 
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Going to finally break down and play Utah -3. I'll be watching this one close. I think whoever breaks first could get blown out.

Fsu look terrible.
 
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I just realized I've said ball state instead of bowling Green the whole time. I did mention they are playing akron though, so it's clear what game I was talking about.
 
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Colorado state -3 second half. They are playing a terrible team, up 24 to 0. I like them to be able to maintain the lead and add a fg at the least before the back ups are in.

Also Kansas state and Georgia -2.5 second halfs. Both are controlling their games.
 
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Playing smu moneyline @+202.

Reasoning is I think they win with their defense. I still expect a lot of points, but I think they will get more stops. Given its +202, would also be easy to buy out of, even if Memphis gets up 14 in the first half.
 
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Indiana is down to 7.5. I don't think it will dip lower than that, so I'll get the hook on this for -7.
 
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Oregon is bouncing between 3.5 and 4. I bet it when it was juiced on usc so I could get the hook a little cheaper. Have Oregon -3 here, almost entirely because I like their defensive match up, and as they say, defense wins games.

Man, Memphis crowd are really a factor right now. They seem loud as hell.
 
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Tennessee -4 second half. They aren't looking as great as they could be but they are pitching a shutout.
 
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Indiana -2.5 second half.

Even if you take away the 2 turnovers that northwestern had that gave Indiana some short field touch downs, Indiana would still be up by 7 right now. Indiana tends to finish their games out. This is heavily juiced on northwestern, couldn't pass it up at +106
 
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15-5 Today. Can't complain, but those back door covers on those 3 second half lines stung, could have been 18-2! Better if I had bought out of fsu and smu, but I didn't buy out of anything today, I'm fine with it. 3-0 in NBA too, so was a great 18-5 day in total.

Win - Michigan -21
Win - Buffalo +1
Win - Bowling Green -3
Win - Kansas state -4
Win - Illinois -17
Win - North Texas -20
Win - Colorado state -6.5
Loss - Fsu -2.5
Win - Tennessee -10
Win - Bowling green second half -2.5
Win - Utah -3
Loss - Colorado state second half -3
Loss - Georgia second half -2.5
Win -Kansas state second half -2.5
Loss - Smu money line +202
Win - Indiana -7
Win - Oregon -3
Loss - Tennessee -4 second half
Win - Indiana -2.5 second half
Win - Smu +16, Georgia +3.5, Kansas state +5

Colorado 1st and goal on the 2, and they kneel out the last few minutes... really annoying to lose a 2nd half like that. The Tennessee second half sucked too, gave them a 1st down on 4th, and they ended up getting a td at the end there. Oh well. No buy outs this week, as most losses were second half lines. I considered buying out of smu money line, but the teaser was covering so I just left it alone. Shame they lost, they had about a 10 minute period where nothing went right, and Memphis qb looked like a wizard during that period. Amazing, amazing passes he was making, but smu came back, but fell by 6.
 
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Liberty (-23) @ UMass - Minutemen (1-7 ATS) you know what... maybe they won't win, but I think this can be a competitive game. Liberty isn't exactly a powerhouse. UMass puts up enough points usually to make having to outscore them by 23 seem like a lot here for a team like liberty.

:D Minutemen now (1-8 ATS)

Florida (+6.5) vs Georgia in Jax - Just not liking Bulldog vibe right now. Something amiss? - I don't like the vibe either, but on paper Georgia should win this by double digits as I said days ago. I'm staying away from this game, but Georgia even though not looking so great at first glance, actually lead the whole nation in a lot of key stats.

Tough game - hate missing by 1/2 point

Air Force (-17) @ Home vs Army - Like the Falcons here. - air force has them outclassed by the stats for sure. Is this considered a rivalry game? Line looks legit to me.

Army played tough and stuffed the option

Florida St (-3) @ Home vs Miami - Seminoles playing well! One heck of a game here! - I just saw this on a local late night sports show (I live in florida) and they showe'd the simulation for this game to be florida state winning 52.95 percent of the time. The problem I have with that is that Florida state has been a much better team this last month than they were the first month, so those stats are a big misleading to me. I'd say it's closer to adding 10 percent to that.

Hurricanes out muscled Seminoles and are starting to flex their strength
Utah (-3) @ Washington - Utes Defense must come to play - you know what surprised me when I looked deeper into this game? Utah has better passing per attempt, and completion percentage. That really shocked me. Something is nagging me on this game, maybe it's Utahs weak schedule(79th strongest) to Washington's(33rd) it just makea their stats look more concrete. Both these teams control the ball at a high clip, maybe the under is a play here.

Great game! 2 really good teams!

Tennessee (-13) @ Home vs UAB - Volunteers should run this up! - UAB has the 130th ranked schedule in the country... Tennessee has the 22nd up to this point. Like I said before, UAB will have to show me those stats are legit, or if it's just fluff like I suspect, I bet this way early at 10, but 13 still seems like a winner to me.

Lock of the week!

Indiana (-10) @ Home vs Northwestern - Hoosiers will roll - this line looks much better without it being in limbo at 11.5. I'm familiar with these two teams play, and honestly the only thing I can give a nod to nw over Indiana is that their red zone defence is pretty decent. And special teams now that I think on it. Indiana doesn't have the greatest of special teams.

Glad to see the Hoosiers 7-2!

SMU (+5) @ Memphis - it will be close or Mustangs get blown out lol. - I just think SMU are more battle tested. They also run almost 20 more offensive plays a game than Memphis does. 2nd in the country I believe.

Score not as close as the finish says - Memphis was in full control
North Carolina (-1.5) @ Home vs Virginia - Feel some Mack Brown magic coming again - I really think this is a coin flip.

Mack lost the flip - lol

USC(+4) @ Home vs Oregon - Got to stick with Trojans as dog - I just feel Oregon handles business here the more I think on it. They just have better defence, point blank.

Ducks Defense played exceptional! Trojans have no RB at the moment

Another losing week but still one heck of a ride as usual! I added some comments to your quotes above. Nice work again!
 
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Saturday (4-6) -$200/-2.0 Units Overall (66-76-6) -$1000/ -10.00 Units


First Impressions (9-9)
Dropped (5-3)
Added (0-1)

Alabama and LSU hold strong #1 and #2 ranks on byes. Georgia and Utah help their case. Baylor a surprise to still be undefeated. Penn State a nice and quiet 8-0 as well. Memphis made a strong showing this week as did Oregon.
 
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I'm hoping that Lsu/Bama line drops down toward 3 before kickoff.
 
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First Impressions Week 11 -

Didn't know there was 2 games from the MAC going on tonight on Tuesday :hmmmm:

Thursday -

Coastal Carolina (+14) @ Home vs Louisiana - Chanticleers may win straight up - covered last 2 vs Troy and Georgia Southern

Friday -

Oregon State (+10) @ Home vs Washington - Huskies lost a heartbreaker last week to Utah and now going to hostile Beaver territory (6-1 ATS)

Saturday -

Texas (-7) @ Home vs Kansas St. - Longhorns have edge after extra week to prepare?

Minnesota (+7) @ Home vs Penn St - Can the Golden Gophers cover 6 in a row?

Baylor (-2) @ TCU - Bears try and go 9-0 - must win to make next 2 games vs Oklahoma and Texas huge

Army (-34.5) @ Home vs UMass - All year long - ribby (7-1 vs Minutemen)

Arkansas (-1.5) @ Home vs W. Kentucky - Like the Hogs in this spot with better recruits

Purdue (-2.5) @ Northwestern - Wildcats have not covered at home yet (0-4 ATS)

UTSA (+4.5) @ Old Dominion - Monarchs (0-8) last eight games - only win Norfolk St.

Alabama (-6.5) @ Home vs LSU - Tigers lost 29-0 @ Home last year but (6-1 ATS) this year - both teams coming off bye week - get your popcorn ready - Tide has won last 8 in a row

Virginia Tech (+2.5) @ Home vs Wake Forest - big game here - Hokies (3-0 ATS last 3)

Arizona St (-1.5) @ Home vs USC - Trojans reeling after Duck thrashing now must face a Sun Devil team glad to be home

Wisconsin (-9.5) @ Home vs Iowa - battle for Big Ten West

Iowa St (+14 ) @ Oklahoma - Lincoln Riley 's 1st career loss to Cyclones - how will Sooners react to loss vs Kansas St. loss 2 weeks ago
 
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Congrats on that NFL week ribby. You did a killer job there. Here's some feedback to your first impressions.

Coastal Carolina (+14) @ Home vs Louisiana - Louisiana Lafayette have played a way harder schedule and are 6-2. They literally are better at almost every spot you can imagine. They get a plus in offense, defence, and special teams. Yeah they are away but I think this line should have been 17.

Oregon State (+10) @ Home vs Washington - tough one here. Oregon state have been awesome on 3rd downs all year, if they can continue that in this game, i like them to cover. If they cant, Washington will stomp them. I'd lean toward Washington here. They are more battle tested. Those third downs will be key.

Texas (-7) @ Home vs Kansas St. - on paper, this should be a super competitive game. That said, these teams have gone in opposite directions the last month and change huh. Kansas st. Have been really clicking the last 3 games.

Minnesota (+7) @ Home vs Penn St - man... this one is tough. Its a fair line in my opinion. I'd be scared to bet this one, because Minnesota are clearly good... but how good? Penn state are already heavy battle tested. They have the beat rush defense in the country, giving up under 2 yards per rush. Minnesota have great 3rd down percentage, but I think Penn will have them well index that average. I feel Penn state win this, possibly big. If I recall, I said that both of these teams were the most under rated teams in the country about a month ago. I still think that. I'm glad that Penn state is the 4th ranked team in the cfp rankings that just came out, leaving Clemson at 5. Penn deserves it over them.

Baylor (-2) @ TCU - Bears try and go 9-0 - I don't like baylor, but I can tell you this, that line is super fishy. It should be 4.5 to 6. That said, if you like this line, get on it now, because id have to imagine it will go up.

Army (-34.5) @ Home vs UMass - lot of points for a team not putting any up. I would be all over UMass here if they were as good on offense as they were earlier in the year. I still kind of feel that they score enough to keep it within 35. Then again... umass seems to want to give up over 50 in the first half now, so it could happen. It's just hard for me to imagine army laying that many points to anyone.

Arkansas (-1.5) @ Home vs W. Kentucky - Arkansas has terrible defence, like real bad, but it's kind of like the uab/tennessee game where the stats don't mean anything. On paper, w. Kentucky should win, easily. The issue here is its sec vs usa.

Purdue (-2.5) @ Northwestern - this is +2.5 now due to the purdue losing another qb. On paper, purdue is the way better team, and after I finish these replies to you, I'm going to look into who they are starting and if he is just decent, I'll be on purdue for sure.

UTSA (+4.5) @ Old Dominion - yuck. Possibly the worst game of the year. It's a coin flip to me, so taking the points isn't a bad move.

Alabama (-6.5) @ Home vs LSU - I'm too biased to give thoughts on this. If Tua plays all game, healthy, I think he out guns burrows, and takes the lead in the Heisman again. I could see this game having 80+ points in it. Can't wait to see this game

Virginia Tech (+2.5) @ Home vs Wake Forest - line is fair to me, wake has been better at just about everything except red zone defence. V-tech are riding high though, so stats are a little misleading. Got to give wake a plus for consistency.

Arizona St (-1.5) @ Home vs USC - I like the other side, a lot. USC has had one hell of a schedule, and I think they are underrated considering that. Last week really helped this line being like this.

Wisconsin (-9.5) @ Home vs Iowa - tough one to call. I do feel like this line should be lower though, 6.5 or so. I'd expect it to go lower than 9.5.

Iowa St (+14 ) @ Oklahoma - what would scare me here is that Oklahoma need massive style points (and help) for arena hopes of the playoffs.
 
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Congrats on that NFL week ribby. You did a killer job there. Here's some feedback to your first impressions.

Coastal Carolina (+14) @ Home vs Louisiana - Louisiana Lafayette have played a way harder schedule and are 6-2. They literally are better at almost every spot you can imagine. They get a plus in offense, defence, and special teams. Yeah they are away but I think this line should have been 17.

Oregon State (+10) @ Home vs Washington - tough one here. Oregon state have been awesome on 3rd downs all year, if they can continue that in this game, i like them to cover. If they cant, Washington will stomp them. I'd lean toward Washington here. They are more battle tested. Those third downs will be key.

Texas (-7) @ Home vs Kansas St. - on paper, this should be a super competitive game. That said, these teams have gone in opposite directions the last month and change huh. Kansas st. Have been really clicking the last 3 games.

Minnesota (+7) @ Home vs Penn St - man... this one is tough. Its a fair line in my opinion. I'd be scared to bet this one, because Minnesota are clearly good... but how good? Penn state are already heavy battle tested. They have the beat rush defense in the country, giving up under 2 yards per rush. Minnesota have great 3rd down percentage, but I think Penn will have them well index that average. I feel Penn state win this, possibly big. If I recall, I said that both of these teams were the most under rated teams in the country about a month ago. I still think that. I'm glad that Penn state is the 4th ranked team in the cfp rankings that just came out, leaving Clemson at 5. Penn deserves it over them.

Baylor (-2) @ TCU - Bears try and go 9-0 - I don't like baylor, but I can tell you this, that line is super fishy. It should be 4.5 to 6. That said, if you like this line, get on it now, because id have to imagine it will go up.

Army (-34.5) @ Home vs UMass - lot of points for a team not putting any up. I would be all over UMass here if they were as good on offense as they were earlier in the year. I still kind of feel that they score enough to keep it within 35. Then again... umass seems to want to give up over 50 in the first half now, so it could happen. It's just hard for me to imagine army laying that many points to anyone.

Arkansas (-1.5) @ Home vs W. Kentucky - Arkansas has terrible defence, like real bad, but it's kind of like the uab/tennessee game where the stats don't mean anything. On paper, w. Kentucky should win, easily. The issue here is its sec vs usa.

Purdue (-2.5) @ Northwestern - this is +2.5 now due to the purdue losing another qb. On paper, purdue is the way better team, and after I finish these replies to you, I'm going to look into who they are starting and if he is just decent, I'll be on purdue for sure.

UTSA (+4.5) @ Old Dominion - yuck. Possibly the worst game of the year. It's a coin flip to me, so taking the points isn't a bad move.

Alabama (-6.5) @ Home vs LSU - I'm too biased to give thoughts on this. If Tua plays all game, healthy, I think he out guns burrows, and takes the lead in the Heisman again. I could see this game having 80+ points in it. Can't wait to see this game

Virginia Tech (+2.5) @ Home vs Wake Forest - line is fair to me, wake has been better at just about everything except red zone defence. V-tech are riding high though, so stats are a little misleading. Got to give wake a plus for consistency.

Arizona St (-1.5) @ Home vs USC - I like the other side, a lot. USC has had one hell of a schedule, and I think they are underrated considering that. Last week really helped this line being like this.

Wisconsin (-9.5) @ Home vs Iowa - tough one to call. I do feel like this line should be lower though, 6.5 or so. I'd expect it to go lower than 9.5.

Iowa St (+14 ) @ Oklahoma - what would scare me here is that Oklahoma need massive style points (and help) for arena hopes of the playoffs.

Thank you! Too bad I didn't parlay it! :eek: Would have been a hell of a snap!

Coastal only losing 3 on the road to Georgia Southern gives me hope for a cover.

Excited myself for some of these games especially #1 vs #2!
 
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That purdue game is intriguing. O'Connell will be starting. Not much info on him, but when he had to come in last week, he went 6 for 7, for a game winning drive against nebraska, who to me are about the same team as northwestern, perhaps a little better than northwestern.


I'm going to play them at +3 with the hook.
 
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