Georgia Southern (+16) @ Appalachian St. - what happens if Georgia Southern can't get that run going? They are so 1 dimensional. To put it in perspective, these 2 teams run about the same per game, but app state also gets almost 5 times more passing yards a game. Also southern actually has a little bit more of rushing yards, yet they have 7 less rushing touchdowns. Makes you think huh. And 11 less in the air. Even if they average their 240 or so yards on the ground, they are still going to get way out gained, and app state has proven to be way more efficient at converting yards to points.
UConn (+27) @ Home vs Navy - could get ugly, I would want 28 points if I were on the dog. Who knows though, maybe last week gave rhem a boost to confidence and they play like Alabama this week... probably not.
Maryland (+21) @ Home vs Michigan - I almost never say this.... I like Michigan to win big here. Why? They desperately need wins, huge style point wins. They know that too, so I don't think they will sleep walk in this game. Their defence is top 10 and Maryland has completely lost every ounce of their mojo.
Liberty (-23.5) @ UMass - Minutemen (1-7 ATS) A man is only as good as his word, haha. It's worked out very nicely so far. I'm still upset I didn't play that akron/umass game when I was positive they would win straight up... and they did... probably for the only time for quite a while to come. They were like +300 by kickoff time, would have been nice.
Bowling Green (-6) @ Home vs Akron - this may be worse than the umass/Akron game. That was a entertaining game though, but it was like watching a bunch of infants that just learned to walk going crazy in a mosh pit.
Va. Tech (+17) @ Notre Dame - ND has next to no hope now. Are the coaches keeping them away from all the talk about that? I don't like vtech, and would have been all over this if not for nd last week. ND has definitely played better teams than tech has, and I think this line is probably fair. I think the key here is tech doesn't have the dline Michigan has, and book is really really good when he isn't constantly running for his life.
Florida (+6.5) vs Georgia in Jax - this opened at -3.5 and I immediately put it in my bet slip and bought the hook.... but I didn't bet it, I cleared it off my slip and forgot about it. Why? Something just didn't sit well with me about it. Is Georgia really that good? Their best win was notre dame... and that has so little weight to it now after what Michigan did to them. I think the main thing that turned me off from betting this is that they went into halftime last week 0-0. Yeah they won 21-0, but 0 points at halftime??? To Kentucky??? They give me Cleveland brown vibes. All that talent but not performing up to it. I'd rather stay completely away, but on paper Georgia should win this by double digits.
Kansas (+6) @ Home Kansas St. - Kansas is an enigma. When they show up they look like a top 10 team, but they look like a 120th ranked team here and there too. State looked really good last week, and beat tcu the week before that. They seem to be clicking after those losses.
Air Force (-14.5) @ Home vs Army - army looked really good week 1. What happened to them???
Florida St. (-3.5) @ Home vs Miami - Florida state seems to be finally piecing it together a bit. I think they would win this more often than not. Miami is really inconsistent and fs has been steady improving. That usually makes for a good formula to bet.
Utah (-3.5) @ Washington - if they can pressure the pass, this could get ugly. If their pass rush isn't on though Washington could pop 35 on them before halftime. So far, you'd have to believe that Utahs pass rush will indeed be there causing a lot of pressure. Dangerous opponent for both of them. Whichever breaks first could possibly get blown out.
W. Kentucky (-1.5) @ Home vs Fla. Atlantic - I'd have to look more into it. Fla Atlantic I have seen a bit of these last few weeks, and made some money on. I like how they are playing.
East Carolina (+24) @ Home vs Cincy - I don't know man... I see cincy winning big, but a possible back door.
Tennessee (-11.5) @ Home vs UAB - I already bet this when it was -10, I teased it also, also and I believe I put the plays up there in the thread somewhere. Not much needing to be said, even though Tennessee is considered a lower sec team, they still have sec recruiting and sec talent. I'd be amazed if this isn't a blow out, and it's at home? Really strange line. Yeah uab is ranked in the top 5 for defence.... but look who they have played. Already this year, they have played rice, akron, and old dominion!!! I don't believe that top 5 defence rating at all. It's fluff.
Indiana (-11.5) @ Home vs Northwestern - I hate lines like this, it's in limbo. I really like it at 10, I question it at 13..., but what about 11.5??? I tend to avoid lines like this because they cause trouble in buy outs. Indiana has been good. They always are pretty good but have to play so big time teams every year. Nw has been terrible, and that close game against Wisconsin doesn't seem so nice now.
SMU (+6) @ Memphis - I'm pretty surprised that this line isn't the other way around. Feels like a trap line. I need to look deeper into some stats to see if something sticks out. I'd think it would be high scoring regardless though.
North Carolina (-1.5) @ Home vs Virginia - both of these teams are on my shit list. That said, Virginia has better players, unc has the better coach. Unc has already met last year's win total so they already are on the way up either way. They play people tough. I'm slightly surprised this isn't a pickem, or even Virginia -1. Hard one to cap.
USC (+4.5) @ Home vs Oregon - USC has been slipping, and Oregon has a decent defence. I think this line is fair, but if someone randomly asked me which team would be able to blow out the other one more often, I would say oregon. If they played 100 times I think oregon would blow them out maybe 20 times, USC would blow them out maybe 10 timses, and the majority of the rest would be within 10 points and Oregon would win the majority of those. It's away for them though, and they did have a scare last week against a similar team, so USC might be catching them at the right place, at the right time.
Fresno St (+2) @ Hawaii - Hawaii is a team I just don't like to bet against, they are stupid good when they arent supposed to be, but very average in most games where they are supposed to be great. On paper Fresno wins this a high percentage of the time, but like I said, I just don't like going against Hawaii especially at home. Them and app state are 2 teams I've never done well betting against.
