Dara O'Kearney (Satellite Specialist) - Ask Me Anything about satellites/knockouts

[ChickenArise]

This book is incredible! The attention to detail of the nuances of satellite play is unparalleled to anything I have ever read on the subject.

Only half way through and I know I will be reading this over and over again.

Thank you so much for writing it.

If you play satellites online or live even just a little bit this book is gold and you have to get it.

If you frequently play satellite online vs me, please dont buy this book as you will make my life that much more difficult by reading it.

 

[Amanda A]

Fascinating! I will definitely check out your book and try a few saty's. I've been playing micro tourney's and sit and go's. I have been trying to master the sit and go's by making the right decisions but feel like a lot of people are playing the same way with their push/fold strategies in the sit and go's and that makes it hard to have any edge. It was interesting you moved from sit and go's to saty's, it seems like there might be more room to maneuver, and do some things better than others there, do you agree? Last time I played a saty was to try and get in to the Aussie Millions, I made it through the first tourney (you have to get through 3) then in the second tourney I was doing ok, had doubled my stack but blinds were going up and at least 50 percent of the field still had to drop before moving on to the last tourney. A fairly tight player in early position shoves all in and I call (even though I didn't want to) with QQ, he turns over Ak and hits A on river and I'm out. I guess I'll have to read your book to see if I made the right call Looking forward to it!

 

[ChickenArise]

I have an issue that maybe you could help with. I am not sure what I did wrong. I was playing in poker stars Scoop 21M Mega Satellite. Its Tournament # 26056555553 for $2.20 to win a $55 seat.

I had used all your strategies to rocket into first place with over 70k chips with 15getting a seat and at the moment I sat out the tournament needed to lose 12 people so I thought I was safe to sit out and did. Average stack was 35k at that moment.

The tournament wasnt a turbo so blinds didnt escalate fast and I thought I would coast in.

I later found my self at 17th of 17 remaining with 25k chips. Then maybe I panicked but opened jammed KQ all in on the button and lost. The blinds were 2k/4k when I made the move.

Should I have just sat tight and risked blinding off? I think I likely would have blinded out had I done so. If there were 16 remaining I maybe would feel comfortable sitting it out waiting for one person to make an error.

Any input to help me determine what I did wrong would be appreciated.

 

[Fishmasterbaiter]

Hello!

Such an asset! Thanks for being here. How would you play KA on a 6 person table when you are BB in a MTT thats done with late registration? Thanks you

 

[Dara OKearney]

Great to see you here! I asked a question regarding hyper and turbo tournaments on Twitter, maybe you remember it

I purchased your book and read through the majority of it, being particularly interested in those $0.01 tournaments on 888poker because I use them to get myself into $0.10 SNGs tournaments. The reason I do this was because, in December, I started playing poker with a $10 bankroll and managed to grind it up to $300 by mid-April through a mix of satellites, MTTs, and the occasional cash game. I ended up needing the money for a personal emergency, so had to withdraw it - but after that I realised something: the loyalty points I had accrued on my various poker websites made it completely possible to be making about $0.30 a day from freerolls, satellites, and SNGs. It's nothing amazing, sure, but it allows me to potentially freeroll my entire poker career. I'm about 10 days into that and, after reading the book to help with my call/shove ranges, I've made nearly $5 from absolutely nothing. I'm hoping to do with this money the same thing I did with my first investment, and turn it into a more reasonable bankroll that I can start playing some real poker with.

My next question is: how do you deal with all the beats? These $0.01 tournaments, as you can imagine, attract players that are a lot worse than the average player. I'm still finishing with a ticket about 1/3 times (I used to be getting about 1/8 before reading the book), but it's so frustrating to lose my buy-in after 45 minutes of work because I made a reasonable shove that gets called by an equal-size stack that holds a single over card - such as KQs against A6o. I know it's part of poker, and I know that I'm still a winning player, and that I'm getting 70% off my SNG tickets by doing this, but how can I mentally prepare myself for making good decisions and losing to bad ones several times a day? At the moment, I just take an hour or so to watch a TV show or do a little writing until I feel comfortable enough that I'm not tilted before resuming, but is there anything more I can be doing?

I love your work and everything you do for poker!

Hi Millie. I remember! Great to see you here again.

I love spin up stories like yours. I never deposited a cent online, everything was spun up from a freeroll I cashed on my second night online, so anything is possible.

The beats are tough. They get easier over time as you get more used to them, but the pain never fully disappears (or at least hasn't for me). It would be nice to reach a place of total Zen where you don't care about outcomes, but I haven't got there yet. I would say that over time it gets easier: they barely register any more in my regular online tournaments and even if they do, while they might affect my mood, they generally don't affect my play. If I feel they might, I do what you do and take a break. This happens more live than online for me these days, and luckily live when you bust there's an enforced break. I'm never affected by beats unless they bust me: so long as I'm still in the tournament the competitive part of my brain forces me to focus on the present and future rather than the past.

Online the last time I remember feeling a beat significantly was when I got all outered on the river in a 25k High Roller last year near the bubble. That definitely hurt so I aborted my session and took the night off, figuring there was no way I'd be able to play normally in my regular events where first prize was less than the buyin of the tournament I busted. The one thing I try to focus on in game is to remind myself that my poker career is one long session and no one beat or even tournament makes that much of a difference. Over my career, I can expect to lose 20% of 80/20s, 30% of 70/30s and get two outered 8% of the time. I can't choose when it'll happen but it will so there's no point getting upset every time.

Hope this helps and good luck with the continued spin!

 

[Collin Moshman]

Fancy meeting you here Dara!

Have a question for you. How well do you think you'd do if you played sats "perfectly"?

For example, two mini-stacks fold. You could fold and win the ticket 99.9% of the time. But instead you jam into three players with equal stacks to yours, because they're supposed to have a 0% calling range.

 

[HobokenNJ]

One of the interesting parts of your book talks about how exciting satellites can be. I had that experience today.

I was playing a freeroll satellite where top 4 get paid (a $5 tourney ticket). I was doing okay -- a few nice flops and a few bad plays by others and I had a decent (but not large amount of chips). Then my mobile phone stopped connecting to the site. I was sitting out for a good amount of time until I could get to my laptop.

10th place out of 10. Very short stacked. Ugh. Well, let's play this for the fun of it.

I tried my best to think about ICM. A won a couple of all-ins and stole a blind or too. Final table. Excitement building.

Chip leader was playing way too many hands, and spewed off to many players (including me). He had not read Dara's book. Last place swapped a few times (I occupied it most of the time; but made it to 2nd place for a brief moment). A lot of close calls for those in last place.

But.....

Chip leader at the start of the final table ended up 5th place (not in the money). I ended up 4th (in the money). Wild stuff.

Not much of a question, but more of a thank you. I do need to study the book more but I do think my first read of it gave me enough of a leg up to cash in this tournament.

Two questions:

1. Do you think you'll write a tournament book? (I think that was mentioned in this thread.) I hope so as your book was easy to read and very approachable.

2. In lieu of your own book coming out, is there a MTT book you'd recommend? A lot of the highly recommend material seem to be cash focused.

Thank you!

 

[Dara OKearney]

This book is incredible! The attention to detail of the nuances of satellite play is unparalleled to anything I have ever read on the subject.

Only half way through and I know I will be reading this over and over again.

Thank you so much for writing it.

If you play satellites online or live even just a little bit this book is gold and you have to get it.

If you frequently play satellite online vs me, please dont buy this book as you will make my life that much more difficult by reading it.

Thank you very much for your kind words!

 

[Dara OKearney]

Fascinating! I will definitely check out your book and try a few saty's. I've been playing micro tourney's and sit and go's. I have been trying to master the sit and go's by making the right decisions but feel like a lot of people are playing the same way with their push/fold strategies in the sit and go's and that makes it hard to have any edge. It was interesting you moved from sit and go's to saty's, it seems like there might be more room to maneuver, and do some things better than others there, do you agree? Last time I played a saty was to try and get in to the Aussie Millions, I made it through the first tourney (you have to get through 3) then in the second tourney I was doing ok, had doubled my stack but blinds were going up and at least 50 percent of the field still had to drop before moving on to the last tourney. A fairly tight player in early position shoves all in and I call (even though I didn't want to) with QQ, he turns over Ak and hits A on river and I'm out. I guess I'll have to read your book to see if I made the right call Looking forward to it!

Interesting question about the parallels and differences between sit and go's and satellites.

The main parallel is that ICM is vital in both. You can be a winning (cash game) poker player but a losing sit and go player if you trangress ICM too much, and conversely could probably be a winning sit and go player even if you are a losing (cash game) player if you have a really good grasp of ICM. This is one of the reasons I made the transition (similar skillsets).

The main difference is that the ICM on a satellite bubble is like the ICM of a sit and go on crack cocaine. The mistakes that can be made (and are routinely) can be massive in equity terms: for example, on the bubble of a satellite correctly ranging a villain as "any two" and calling his shove with AK "because I'm ahead" could be costing you 30% of the value of the prize in the long run (so $3k in a wsop ME satellite). Understanding the correct strategy and avoiding those mistakes allows you to profit from the mistakes of others and have a very big edge.

Satellites are also more nuanced than sit and go's in my view.

Thanks again for your question!

 

[Amanda A]

Great info! Thanks so much for your reply! GL at the tables Bought your book and can't wait to read it

 

[lonenlynobita]

Hi Dara!

So currently, in the live poker scene, we're starting to see "Win X chips to qualify" satellite. For example, maybe a 100 people satellite where all starts with 10 000 chips and you need 100 000 chips to qualify. What makes the satellite funny for me is you can't really "accumulate chip early and just sit on it" If you have 70 000 chips, you have to continue playing. You either stop when you bust or have 100 000 chips.

How do we adjust our strategy for this kind of satellite since I believe the ICM gets wonky at times?

 

[Dara OKearney]

I have an issue that maybe you could help with. I am not sure what I did wrong. I was playing in Poker Stars Scoop 21M Mega Satellite. Its Tournament # 26056555553 for $2.20 to win a $55 seat.

I had used all your strategies to rocket into first place with over 70k chips with 15getting a seat and at the moment I sat out the tournament needed to lose 12 people so I thought I was safe to sit out and did. Average stack was 35k at that moment.

The tournament wasnt a turbo so blinds didnt escalate fast and I thought I would coast in.

I later found my self at 17th of 17 remaining with 25k chips. Then maybe I panicked but opened jammed KQ all in on the button and lost. The blinds were 2k/4k when I made the move.

Should I have just sat tight and risked blinding off? I think I likely would have blinded out had I done so. If there were 16 remaining I maybe would feel comfortable sitting it out waiting for one person to make an error.

Any input to help me determine what I did wrong would be appreciated.

One of the things that makes the endgame of satellites so tricky is that in some circumstances you would be safe with double average as you had, and in others you won't be. The latter is a lot more common these days than used to be the case, as people in general play the endgame better and punt less often than used to be the case. It's rarely correct to "lock up" completely just because you have reached the target stack: you should be looking to reduce variance and in particular trying to avoid big pots in marginal spots, but you should still go on trying to maintain your stack by winning your fair share of small pots. One blind steal an orbit (on average) will always get you home in these spots. In situations where players are dropping fast sitting tight will generally be the best strategy, but if the bubble is likely to go on a while you should keep trying to pick up small pots.

These situations are always judgement calls, often very tricky ones, and the best player in the world won't get them right all the time. Sometimes the correct decision doesn't work out too: sitting tight might be the smart play 99 times out of 100 but that means there's always that 1 in 100 time the shorties just keep doubling and you get sucked back in when you should have been safe.

I can't say for sure in this case whether your strategy was correct or incorrect, but it does seem very probable it was a case of correct strategy just not working out for once.

Thanks for your question, and better luck next time!

 

[Micro Maven]

Hey Dara, thanks for doing this.

I was in a satty recently. 4 left, top 2 get the prize. 3 even stacks ~8BB and 1 shorty at ~4BB. Do I need to worry about the short stack in this scenario? The specific situation is it was folded to me in the small blind and I had 22 and jammed into another even stack. I think with everyone in the tourney this short it's the right play but IDK?

 

[Dara OKearney]

Such an asset! Thanks for being here. How would you play KA on a 6 person table when you are BB in a MTT thats done with late registration? Thanks you

This depends on a lot of factors:
(1) Stack depth. At 50 big blinds or less effective, I'd usually three bet and be happy to get it in versus most players
(2) Position (if the button or small blinds opens I'd be willing to get all in for a lot more than 50 bi blinds)
(3) ICM. If ICM is a nig factor because we are near a bubble, I'd generally play the hand more conservatively and call. Plan post flop would be to check fold if I miss the flop completely and usually to check call down if I hit top pair or better

Thanks for your question!

 

[Dara OKearney]

Playing perfectly

Fancy meeting you here Dara!

Have a question for you. How well do you think you'd do if you played sats "perfectly"?

For example, two mini-stacks fold. You could fold and win the ticket 99.9% of the time. But instead you jam into three players with equal stacks to yours, because they're supposed to have a 0% calling range.

Hi Collin!

I take your question to me we are playing "perfectly" (GTO) under the assumption that others will be doing likewise, at least in terms of calling ranges.

Very interesting question. I suspect we'd do ok (be small winners) but not as good as the regs who adjust for likely opponent mistakes/divergences.

I saw a very graphic illustration of this in a satellite I played online tonight. The situation was there were 2 big stacks who should have been locked up, 2 medium stacks (of which I was one), and 3 small stacks . So 7 left, 5 tickets, and it should usually be a case of which of the three short stacks gets the last seat.

The fun started when one of the big stacks (second in chips) decided to open shove KTo utg. I'm pretty sure if I plugged it into a solver it would say the shove is fine, assuming everyone behind knows what they're supposed to call with (the other big stack nothing, the two medium stacks nothing or almost nothing, and the three small stacks relatively tight too). As it happened, the chipleader called with aces to eliminate the other guy. I remember thinking in game that while the shove might be profitable if everyone is playing perfectly, I'd never do it in practise. The upside is almost nothing compared to the downside of getting called and losing.

Hilariously, the guy with Aces who now had a humongous chip lead almost managed to bubble from this position because he seemed to have lost access to the Fold button (he didn't bubble, but had to get lucky KJ v AJ not to).

If all that was needed to beat satellites comfortably was access to a solver Barry and I wouldn't have needed to write the book, but the sections where we talk about what we call "adjusting for imperfection" are probably the most important in terms of impact to the bottom line.

Thanks for the very interesting question!

 

[Dara OKearney]

One of the interesting parts of your book talks about how exciting satellites can be. I had that experience today.

I was playing a freeroll satellite where top 4 get paid (a $5 tourney ticket). I was doing okay -- a few nice flops and a few bad plays by others and I had a decent (but not large amount of chips). Then my mobile phone stopped connecting to the site. I was sitting out for a good amount of time until I could get to my laptop.

10th place out of 10. Very short stacked. Ugh. Well, let's play this for the fun of it.

I tried my best to think about ICM. A won a couple of all-ins and stole a blind or too. Final table. Excitement building.

Chip leader was playing way too many hands, and spewed off to many players (including me). He had not read Dara's book. Last place swapped a few times (I occupied it most of the time; but made it to 2nd place for a brief moment). A lot of close calls for those in last place.

But.....

Chip leader at the start of the final table ended up 5th place (not in the money). I ended up 4th (in the money). Wild stuff.

Not much of a question, but more of a thank you. I do need to study the book more but I do think my first read of it gave me enough of a leg up to cash in this tournament.

Two questions:

1. Do you think you'll write a tournament book? (I think that was mentioned in this thread.) I hope so as your book was easy to read and very approachable.

2. In lieu of your own book coming out, is there a MTT book you'd recommend? A lot of the highly recommend material seem to be cash focused.

Thank you!

Hi HobokenNJ, I got a real kick out of how much you enjoyed the experience of the bubble. Well done on not tilting after your disconnection issues. A lot of people think satellites are tedious and not interesting strategically so it's great to see someone who gets it.

To answer your questions,
(1) I may get around to writing a tournament book but no immediate plans. I am working on another strategy book with Barry right now (not on satellites) but I'm not allowed to say.
(2) I'm actually struggling to think of a comprehensive book on tournaments. There are some very bad ones I've read (I won't say which ones), and some that were very good at the time, but I guess the problem is that mtt strategy keeps evolving. A book written on how to exploit the current generation of tournament players could be outdated pretty fast, so maybe training sites and online resources like Cardschat is a better way for that sort of material. There are some very good books that teach specific aspects of mtt play, like Zach Elwood's books on tells which are all excellent and very much up to date

Thank you very much for your questions!

 

[cardshark944]

ACR VENOM freerolls

I am trying to win my seat into the 5 million tourney. The free rolls (6steps) are shown in the menu on Americas Card Room. They cap the tourneys at 400. I have not been able to sign up as each time I bring up the site its either in the "announced mode" or its full. I am currently watching on step one tourney that starts in less than one hour and it is not letting anyone register. I brought up the menu for the step one tourney that is playing and don't see any announcement as to WHEN SIGNUPS ARE ALLOWED....Can you help?

 

[CadoARAJ]

My Amazon .com affiliate link https://amzn.to/2J26rRo

Thank you, very kind!

Hi Dara, I was trying to buy your ebook, but when I click this link appear 6 usd. However, when I make login at my amazon account, the price raises to 10 usd. Why?

 

[mad_bad]

Where I can buy book, I am From Bosnia, can you give me a advice?
My options I master card and visa. Tnx.

 

[Talden]

I bought mine from Google Play. It's read only, I. E. You can't DL it, but it's there.
P. S. Great read Dara, I figure it's worth several reads. Lol. Ok I'm old and slow, but I'll eventually get it.

 

[Mr_Hand]

Wow. I can’t believe I’m just finding this thread! Amazing stuff here Dara! Thank you so much!

 

[AKQ]

What do you think about GTO? personal pros and cons?

 

[scaleyback]

Hey Dara, I have just stumbled over this thread after reading your book at the weekend.

I can honestly say this has changed my Sat game pretty much over night (though I will be reading it again and making notes). I have been killing it on a small extremely fishy well known 6 max UK only poker room though I have had to adjust the ranges slightly in some cases to accommodate the format, but the same principles apply.

I have also managed to bink a Goliath Seat starting from a 25c feeder, some PPL dollars and entry into a couple of comps at DTD so the book has paid for itself.

My question to you is with regards to the PPL micro sats that are currently running. Since Party removed the $5 PPL games that awarded $50 in PPL $ the micros/super micros tend to be limited to the feeder MTT where you need to get through multiple sats to have a chance at winning PPL$.

Do you think these are worth grinding for someone with a small roll of $100 starting at the $1.10 which feed into an $11 etc etc or do you think you should focus on maybe building the roll up and first to just play the direct feeder sats so maybe the $22 to win 220 PPL$?

I could imagine it would be reasonably easy to burn through a small roll fairly easily playing the multi level feeders.

I hope that makes sense and to anyone thinking of buying the book, just do it! It will pay for itself in no time.

Cheers

 

[Kaban]

Good day! And welcome to cardchat! A simple question: how many days, weeks, months, years have to play it to become a pro in poker?

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara!

So currently, in the live poker scene, we're starting to see "Win X chips to qualify" satellite. For example, maybe a 100 people satellite where all starts with 10 000 chips and you need 100 000 chips to qualify. What makes the satellite funny for me is you can't really "accumulate chip early and just sit on it" If you have 70 000 chips, you have to continue playing. You either stop when you bust or have 100 000 chips.

How do we adjust our strategy for this kind of satellite since I believe the ICM gets wonky at times?

First off, apologies for my absence from here for the last few weeks, I was giving WSOP my full focus.

The type of satellites you're talking about are very different from traditional satellites, in fact, they're essentially the polar opposite. What makes traditional satellites so different from normal tournaments is how extreme the ICM is because of the flat payouts, and most of "Poker Satellite Strategy" is about the adjustments we should make to our strategy as a result.

A satellite where you just have to accumulate a target stack is essentially (from a strategic point of view) a cash game, where you're forced to keep playing with escalating blind levels until you either bust or reach the target. There is no ICM essentially, so correct strategy is identical to cash game strategy. We mention this briefly in the book in relation to winner take all one table satellites, where the same principles apply.

Thanks a lot for your question!