Thank you for a detailed answer Dara!
Sometimes I only need to be told something 5 times before it sinks in!
I was surprised to read that you recommend coming in 10th if they are paying 10 spots equally. I get that you want to take as little risk as is required to win but....wouldn't I really want to aim for 6th or 8th place? Teetering on the bubble is always difficult. How can you estimate how many levels or orbits are left before you are in the money in a satellite tournament? I mean as a shortstack w ATo - should I be calling a shortstack shove from the button near the bubble?
Thanks.
Hi Mike,
My pleasure and thank you for your subsequent questions.
When I say aim for 10th, I don't mean always come 10th, but more a case of don't take any more risks than you feel are necessary to come tenth. Sometimes that will mean coming higher (typically if the bubble goes faster than expected). The two biggest implications for this strategically are:
(1) Far from the bubble, estimate how many chips you need for a seat (the best method is explained in the book) and the nearer you get to that the less risks you should take.
gambling to acquire more chips will certainly make for less stressful bubbles, but will cost you money in the long run
(2) Near the bubble, always have a clear estimate of your chances of a seat (again, the methods to do this are explained in detail in the book), and use this to assess whether its correct to put chips at risk in a pot (compare how much your chances will improve if you win to how much they deteriorate if you lose. In a lot of bubble spots, losing will be 2 or 3 times as bad as winning, so you shouldn't put the chips in unless you believe you're a 2 or 3 to 1 favourite.
The answer to your hypothetical ATo example is "it depends". I can think of examples where it's a clear call, and a clear fold.
Clear call example: 11 left, 10 seats, you and the other short stack are level in chips, miles behind 9/11. So far behind that basically it's almost certain one of you will bubble. Since you're level in chips, that means both of you have roughly a 50% chance of a seat. If he shoves from the small blind, you have a clear call, since if you win your chances go from 50% to 100% (a gain of 50%), and if you lose from 50% to 0% (a loss of 50%). Since the upside and downside are equal you can call any hand which is likely to be ahead of his small blind shoving range, which ATo will be.
Clear fold example: same example, except this time the small blind shoving into you is one of the big stacks who has so many chips he can afford to double you up without harming his own chances. Because of this, you think he's shoving any two cards. Nevertheless, it's still a fold! Why? Well, remember the last seat is basically between you and the other short stack. If you double up in this case, your chances of a seat don't go up to 100%, but only 66.6% (double the other short stack, since you now have double his chips). If you lose, you're out (0% chane of a seat), so in this case you're risking three times as much as you stand to lose, so you need to be a 3 to 1 favorite, or in other words you need 75%
equity. Even if you're correct in your assumption the big stack is shoving any two, ATo only has just under 63% equity against any two, so you have a clear fold.
Most other examples will be less clearcut, but by working through the examples in the book you'll be better equipped to make the correct decisions in these spots in game.
mateuspoker
