Dara O'Kearney (Satellite Specialist) - Ask Me Anything about satellites/knockouts

[urachicho]

Thanks for doing this AMA.

 

[Dara OKearney]

Im listening to your commentary at the Irish Open right now, thank you for your insight.

Thank you, glad you enjoyed it!

 

[topcatbrazil]

On Satellites

Hi Cardschat,

I am Dara O’Kearney, known as Doke online. I am an Irish poker professional tournament player, with over $1 million in live earnings and more than $3 million in online MTTs, not to mention 8 PocketFives Triple Crowns.

I am perhaps best known for being a satellite specialist. I have won over $1 million in online satellites alone and have just written a new book on this subject called Poker Satellite Strategy:

Away from the tables I am the co-host of the Global Poker Award winning Chip Race Podcast and sponsored by Unibet Poker. Prior to poker I was an ultra marathon runner

Cardschat have kindly agreed to let me do an Ask Me Anything thread where you can ask me anything at all about satellites and tournament strategy. This will be on an ongoing basis, I’ll be checking in most weeks starting this one to answer your questions and to begin with I will be around tomorrow to answer the first batch.

Also this month I will give a free copy of my book on Apple iBooks to my favourite question, once a week for the next four weeks.

AMA


Dara

What is the most common misconception that plagues players who don’t play them too often when they approach their strategy? ( Satellites, I mean )

 

[Dara OKearney]

Why play satellites?

Hi Dara,

I am very sceptic about satellites, maybe similiar like Debi, or even more.
Well, I have to admit, that I played already some and really got lucky about some.
But I am not a big fan of them. Often I think, better buy- in these, that you can afford.
But please just tell me why I should play them at all and to what percentage would you play them of your games. Maybe you also could give us some tips about playing them accordingly to some brm.
I look forward to your answers.

Not all satellites are created equal: there are some I wouldn't play myself at all. They might be to events you don't want to play, or shouldn't play for bankroll reasons, or they might not be high value in themselves (too many pros). But the biggest reason to play them is the ones that are good are very very good: you get very weak players who normally don't play this buyin, and it's possible to have an edge over pros who specialise in normal mtts if you follow the strategy outlined in "Poker Satellite Strategy".

For myself, somewhere between 40-50% of my current online volume is satellites.

You do have to be careful as far as BRM goes, following whatever guidelines are prudent for the target event (not the satellites themselves, unless you have some way of cashing some of the equity out, like selling seats or %'s).


Thank you for your questions.

 

[Dara OKearney]

Awesome Dara nice thread satellites are easy in comparison its the 5000 to 60000 player fields that cause problems any plans on writing a new book about main events?
Wow you play a lot of them!
Wish you continued success and saying you started in your forties has given hope to a 39 year old here maybe still time when felt passed the prime.
What will your book do for me that a huge online free library like CardsChat can not do for me would be my question?
Asking this question in a positive way not being begrudging or mean spirited great to see you here really impressive poker results you have.

Thank you for your kind words.

I have a number of ideas for other books, including one on playing main events. The reason I started with a book on satellites is that ion my opinion/experience, people make far bigger mistakes in them, because the correct strategy is much farther from "normal poker" than in a main event.

It's hard to answer the second part of the question without sounding braggy, but I genuinely believe that optimal strategy in satellites is so peculiar it has to be studied as a completely different subject from "normal tournament poker". There is very little good specific content on satellites out there, which is why we saw a need for this book.

If you don't believe me, believe Marty Mathis, winner of the year long PPL Leaderboard (and as such the most successful online satellite player in the world over the last year), and also winner of the recent Rio Millions. Marty bought the book as soon as it came out and wrote the following review at Amazon. Note Marty was not a friend of mine at the time, we'd never even met, so this is not just one friend hyping another's book:

"I have just finished Dara's book on Super Satellite Strategy. Let me preface this review by stating I have been grinding satellites as my main focus for 8 months, where I currently sit #1 on the Party Poker PPL leaderboard. I wouldn't consider myself a specialist, there are several people who are much better and experienced than myself, but after months of tedious ICM/FGS calculations, I feel like I had a strong handle on proper strategy prior to reading the book

My reason for buying this book was simple. Outside of Tom Hall, Dara is widely considered the best in the format. I have the utmost respect for both of them. The thing about satellites is that they are so different from any other form of poker that sometimes the entire lens through which you view poker is shattered into pieces. You can not look at satellites through that same lens. As you gain more experience in satellites through work with software (I recommend icmizer2 and monkersolver), you start to develop a lot of theories you might consider batshit crazy. It makes you question every thing you do. My entire strategy behind satellites has been a sort of "brute force" approach where I simply run thousands of simulations of different game states and ask myself WHY I think the results come out the way they do. This takes countless hours and probably isn't the most efficient way to approach things

What Dara's book has done is to confirm some of theories I had made myself. The affirmation alone was worth way more than the $10 I paid.

For those of you with no experience, what you can expect is a solid theoretical foundation to playing satellites backed by hard math. It is simple to follow, but will take practice to implement "Gorilla Maths" in your own game. There is no substitute for doing the work yourself, but Dara has shortened your workload by covering the most common spots you will encounter in a variety of satellite situations. In my opinion the book is of great benefit to a player of any skill level who is looking to play satellites. In the first 30 minutes of reading, I guarantee you will pick up something that will increase your future expectation enough to cover the cost of the book 10 fold.

-Marty "TJXOLOSFAN1" Mathis"

 

[hugh blair]

Excellent answer agree people would be mad not to buy your book if working on satellites to bigger events in my opinion.
Honour to chat with one of the best players in the world thanks for response.

 

[narc]

So many good questions and startling answers, this certainly fed my knowledge.

My question is: For you there is some pattern noticed in online games, biased, type play in position, or if the table comes twice AK followed, and you the third time have AK you can still win with this hand after two previous moves Aces and Ks are on the table, should we consider this probability, and also the standard that the table should tend to the player with more stacks?

I already noticed that in one of the answers, there was something with Suit hands being good hands typically with whom Ax plays. In a way, it's a pattern found.

 

[Debi]

Thank you for your kind words.

I have a number of ideas for other books, including one on playing main events. The reason I started with a book on satellites is that ion my opinion/experience, people make far bigger mistakes in them, because the correct strategy is much farther from "normal poker" than in a main event.

It's hard to answer the second part of the question without sounding braggy, but I genuinely believe that optimal strategy in satellites is so peculiar it has to be studied as a completely different subject from "normal tournament poker". There is very little good specific content on satellites out there, which is why we saw a need for this book.

If you don't believe me, believe Marty Mathis, winner of the year long PPL Leaderboard (and as such the most successful online satellite player in the world over the last year), and also winner of the recent Rio Millions. Marty bought the book as soon as it came out and wrote the following review at Amazon. Note Marty was not a friend of mine at the time, we'd never even met, so this is not just one friend hyping another's book:

"I have just finished Dara's book on Super Satellite Strategy. Let me preface this review by stating I have been grinding satellites as my main focus for 8 months, where I currently sit #1 on the Party Poker PPL leaderboard. I wouldn't consider myself a specialist, there are several people who are much better and experienced than myself, but after months of tedious ICM/FGS calculations, I feel like I had a strong handle on proper strategy prior to reading the book

My reason for buying this book was simple. Outside of Tom Hall, Dara is widely considered the best in the format. I have the utmost respect for both of them. The thing about satellites is that they are so different from any other form of poker that sometimes the entire lens through which you view poker is shattered into pieces. You can not look at satellites through that same lens. As you gain more experience in satellites through work with software (I recommend icmizer2 and monkersolver), you start to develop a lot of theories you might consider batshit crazy. It makes you question every thing you do. My entire strategy behind satellites has been a sort of "brute force" approach where I simply run thousands of simulations of different game states and ask myself WHY I think the results come out the way they do. This takes countless hours and probably isn't the most efficient way to approach things

What Dara's book has done is to confirm some of theories I had made myself. The affirmation alone was worth way more than the $10 I paid.

For those of you with no experience, what you can expect is a solid theoretical foundation to playing satellites backed by hard math. It is simple to follow, but will take practice to implement "Gorilla Maths" in your own game. There is no substitute for doing the work yourself, but Dara has shortened your workload by covering the most common spots you will encounter in a variety of satellite situations. In my opinion the book is of great benefit to a player of any skill level who is looking to play satellites. In the first 30 minutes of reading, I guarantee you will pick up something that will increase your future expectation enough to cover the cost of the book 10 fold.

-Marty "TJXOLOSFAN1" Mathis"

That is an awesome review!

 

[BigRivers]

Hi, thanks for the questions.

Biggest difference theoretically between early stages mtts and satellites is we should be following a lower variance strategy in a mega satellite where the first 10 or 20 or whatever prizes are the same (whereas in an mtt we are aiming for the top spot).

To that, I'd add that in practice you often find much weaker players in satellites, so you should be looking to play more exploitatively if that is the case.

The easiest satellite for any event is almost always the last mega sat before the event itself. By then, many of the best players will already have their seat and be out of the satellite pool as a result, and the weakest players who only want to take one shot are most likely to play that one.

where should I buy your book, that supports you the most?

Thank you for not just answering, but explaining the reason why the last Mega is the easiest.

 

[daveshoelace]

Ok once again I have drawn a poster at random to win a copy of the books on iBooks and well done topcatbrazil its you, I will DM you

What is the most common misconception that plagues players who don’t play them too often when they approach their strategy? ( Satellites, I mean )

 

[daveshoelace]

Ah I can't send PMs

Topcat, can you DM me with your email address?

Ok once again I have drawn a poster at random to win a copy of the books on iBooks and well done topcatbrazil its you, I will DM you

 

[Dara OKearney]

What is the most common misconception that plagues players who don’t play them too often when they approach their strategy? ( Satellites, I mean )

That they should be played the same as a "normal" mtt in the early stages. Every very good tournament players often suffer from this misconception: they know the strategy is significantly different at the end near the bubble, but they don't realise this bleeds all the way back to the early stages. I think this is because most "normal mtt" players don't think enough about the implications of the first 20 (or whatever number of seats the satellite awards) being the same. If you asked them "OK, if you don't finish in the top 20 in this tournament, you die. Now, are you going to approach it exactly the same way as a normal tournament?" they'd pretty quickly work out the answer is "No". Yet this is essentially the same payoff as a satellite where the first 20 spots all win the same prize.

Thank you for the question!

 

[Dara OKearney]

So many good questions and startling answers, this certainly fed my knowledge.

My question is: For you there is some pattern noticed in online games, biased, type play in position, or if the table comes twice AK followed, and you the third time have AK you can still win with this hand after two previous moves Aces and Ks are on the table, should we consider this probability, and also the standard that the table should tend to the player with more stacks?

I already noticed that in one of the answers, there was something with Suit hands being good hands typically with whom Ax plays. In a way, it's a pattern found.

Interesting question and I had to think about it. Our brains are very good at recognizing patterns, so good in fact that we see patterns that aren't real. So any time I see a pattern I try to look at it mathematically to determine whether it's a real pattern or not. Shoves getting through more often when the players behind are tight: real pattern. Keep running into AK when I have AQ: not real

 

[Dara OKearney]

where should I buy your book, that supports you the most?

Thank you for not just answering, but explaining the reason why the last Mega is the easiest.

My Amazon .com affiliate link https://amzn.to/2J26rRo

Thank you, very kind!

 

[CadoARAJ]

Interesting question and yeah there are a number of factors I take into account when evaluating a satellite:
(1) Number of strong players/pro to weaker players.
(2) Reg fee/hidden costs
(3) Desirablity/likely softness of target event
(4) Likely overlay

Thank you for your question!

Tks a lot for your answer. Aprecieted it.
And how do you see the number of pro hard players? Do you use some tool to identify them or you recognize and have notes of all of them?
Where can I buy your ebook and for how much? I liked a lot your answers and specially the preface of the leaderboard winner of pp. nice respect to see.

 

[ChickenArise]

Hi, thanks for the questions.

Biggest difference theoretically between early stages mtts and satellites is we should be following a lower variance strategy in a mega satellite where the first 10 or 20 or whatever prizes are the same (whereas in an mtt we are aiming for the top spot).

To that, I'd add that in practice you often find much weaker players in satellites, so you should be looking to play more exploitatively if that is the case.

The easiest satellite for any event is almost always the last mega sat before the event itself. By then, many of the best players will already have their seat and be out of the satellite pool as a result, and the weakest players who only want to take one shot are most likely to play that one.

It puts you in the event so late that the easiest players in the target tournament are likely knocked out already, so there are always trade offs. I am enjoying this thread though.

 

[Alaercio da Rocha]

All right? Taking advantage of the opportunity to know about the 2x Sit & Go Shootout satellites that give entries to other events like bigs and KOS. Any specific strategy to deal with them?

 

[Ahoy]

Hey Dara and welcome to CC!

Its funny actually because just recently my study partner bought your book so he was telling me that he is learning to play satellites (he is a winning MTT regular online but he was never good at satellites, especially the live ones) and he was really satisfied with the book and what it provided and definitely recommended me buying it as well.

So my question would be, what would you describe as the most significant factor that creates edge in satellites? I personally would guess that its the fact that most of the players dont realise how ICM works on the bubble and are shoving way too tight and calling too loose in some spots.

Thanks for the answer and Its very nice of you that you are giving away free copies

PS: GGseries on GG network is starting in a week or so, and I would love to satty into one of the bigger events, so I would definitely put the book to good use!

 

[Luvepoker]

Welcome to the community Dara and thank you for all the help you will be giving us.I have really wanted to get into playing a satellite soon to attempt to get into a bigger event but never found much on them and BAM, here is what I needed. I just bought your book and look forward to attempting to get into some bigger events soon. Thank you, thank you and thank you.

 

[daveshoelace]

It puts you in the event so late that the easiest players in the target tournament are likely knocked out already, so there are always trade offs. I am enjoying this thread though.

Hi Chicken, I have been picking a winner at random a week for a free copy of the book on iBooks and this week it's you - I will DM you now.

 

[Dara OKearney]

Notes and Ebook

Tks a lot for your answer. Aprecieted it.
And how do you see the number of pro hard players? Do you use some tool to identify them or you recognize and have notes of all of them?
Where can I buy your ebook and for how much? I liked a lot your answers and specially the preface of the leaderboard winner of pp. nice respect to see.

I generally know all the tough online regs so a visual scan of the lobby to see how many I recognise is enough. I don't generally keep specific notes as I use a HUD (PokerTracker 4) for all the useful info.

Ebook is available on Amazon (https://amzn.to/30aBqAF) currently for $9.92, as well as Nook, IBooks and Nobo.

Thanks for your questions and kind comments.

 

[Dara OKearney]

It puts you in the event so late that the easiest players in the target tournament are likely knocked out already, so there are always trade offs. I am enjoying this thread though.

This is true. In satellites I think this is less important of a factor, but it's a factor nevertheless

 

[Dara OKearney]

All right? Taking advantage of the opportunity to know about the 2x Sit & Go Shootout satellites that give entries to other events like bigs and KOS. Any specific strategy to deal with them?

I must admit I'm not familiar with the format. Are they winner takes all (advances)?

 

[Millie232]

Great to see you here! I asked a question regarding hyper and turbo tournaments on Twitter, maybe you remember it

I purchased your book and read through the majority of it, being particularly interested in those $0.01 tournaments on 888poker because I use them to get myself into $0.10 SNGs tournaments. The reason I do this was because, in December, I started playing poker with a $10 bankroll and managed to grind it up to $300 by mid-April through a mix of satellites, MTTs, and the occasional cash game. I ended up needing the money for a personal emergency, so had to withdraw it - but after that I realised something: the loyalty points I had accrued on my various poker websites made it completely possible to be making about $0.30 a day from freerolls, satellites, and SNGs. It's nothing amazing, sure, but it allows me to potentially freeroll my entire poker career. I'm about 10 days into that and, after reading the book to help with my call/shove ranges, I've made nearly $5 from absolutely nothing. I'm hoping to do with this money the same thing I did with my first investment, and turn it into a more reasonable bankroll that I can start playing some real poker with.

My next question is: how do you deal with all the beats? These $0.01 tournaments, as you can imagine, attract players that are a lot worse than the average player. I'm still finishing with a ticket about 1/3 times (I used to be getting about 1/8 before reading the book), but it's so frustrating to lose my buy-in after 45 minutes of work because I made a reasonable shove that gets called by an equal-size stack that holds a single over card - such as KQs against A6o. I know it's part of poker, and I know that I'm still a winning player, and that I'm getting 70% off my SNG tickets by doing this, but how can I mentally prepare myself for making good decisions and losing to bad ones several times a day? At the moment, I just take an hour or so to watch a TV show or do a little writing until I feel comfortable enough that I'm not tilted before resuming, but is there anything more I can be doing?

I love your work and everything you do for poker!

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hey Dara and welcome to CC!

Its funny actually because just recently my study partner bought your book so he was telling me that he is learning to play satellites (he is a winning MTT regular online but he was never good at satellites, especially the live ones) and he was really satisfied with the book and what it provided and definitely recommended me buying it as well.

So my question would be, what would you describe as the most significant factor that creates edge in satellites? I personally would guess that its the fact that most of the players dont realise how ICM works on the bubble and are shoving way too tight and calling too loose in some spots.

Thanks for the answer and Its very nice of you that you are giving away free copies

PS: GGseries on GG network is starting in a week or so, and I would love to satty into one of the bigger events, so I would definitely put the book to good use!

Thank you for the welcome! I'm glad your study partner is enjoying the book, and hope you will too.

You've nailed it in terms of the biggest mistakes people make (which therefore generates the biggest edges for those of us who don't make them): it's all around ICM in the closing stages. The biggest errors are definitely calling errors, in spots where a player unnecessarily puts themselves at risk by calling an all in with a premium where there's very little upside to doubling up in chips but huge downside.

Concrete example: it's the bubble and you're in the big blind, 95% sure of a seat. The small blind covers you and shoves. You think he's abusing the bubble shoving any two. You look down at aces and call. This is a huge mistake. If you win you move from 95% to (almost) 100% certain of a seat, but if you lose you move from 95% all the way down to zero. So you need 95% equity to call, and aces only has 85%, so calling "costs" you 10% of a seat, which in a 1 in 10 satellite is an entire buyin. Now 85% of the time you'll win and think you made the right play, and even the 15% of the time you get unlucky you'll write it off as a bad beat, but in the long term this is a big losing play. You'll even see people call with KK (82% equity against any 2), QQ (80%), JJ (77%) or worst of all Ace king (66%) because "I know I'm ahead". Calling off ace king in this spot is a 3 buyin mistake roughly in a 1 in 10 gets a seat satellite.

The biggest problem we have in this spot is if we are the small blind making the shove, which is theoretically correct because the big blind is supposed to fold everything, we don't benefit from his mistake when he calls. In fact our equity is severely hurt too, and everyone else in the tournament shares out the equity we and the big blind both lose. So there's a huge difference between what it's theoretically correct to shove, and what we should do in practise. This is such a big deal we devote a couple of chapters to it in the book.

The examples above are extreme ones from the bubble, but people make all sorts of similar mistakes near the bubble. In the book, we explain some "gorilla maths" methods you can use at the table to avoid these mistakes.

Thank you for your very interesting question!