TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
Sorry Ranger, Florida didn't even win... no bueno.
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
Watching the Ducks game right now - wishing I put some money on them ducks... They're rolling for certain!
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
The next two encounter an interesting bet. The Indy/Oak game where I pick Indy -4, Indy actually wins by 4. I thought it would count as a push, and they'd remove it from the equation, but they didn't, they counted as a win. I guess because with the -4, the score would be 0-0?? And I picked the winner of the outcome??? I don't know, I just hope I don't wake up tomorrow and they go in changing it to a loss. WINNER.
See previous bet to hear my long tangent with the Indy/Oak game. Ultimately, WINNER.
Atlanta goes for it on 4th down at NO 3 yard line late in the 4th quarter for the win, and they don't get it. Even teased 13 points, that should be an eye opener for us and those two 'high powered' offenses. This is a fat ol' LOSS.
This was a just for fun $1, it didn't win, no surprise.
All in all, a decent week. Would have been much nicer if ATL would have scored that last second touchdown, would have been $18 richer. Long story short, up in week 1 winning a total of $41. Guess I can't complain about a profit, just wish I had bet more on my victories.
Week 2 should be pretty interesting. Bovada has a promotion "2 for 1 Tuesdays" where you bet more than $20 on a parlay and get a free $10 bet towards the next week of play. I'll be looking to throw down another $20 3 leg parlay on Tuesday, and maybe a large teaser for the free $10 bet. As always, a little $1 many leg parlay.
Feel free to post any comments/thoughts!
A
A9ofHearts
Visionary
Silver Level
I decided to take advantage of the survive the season promotion
https://www.bovada.lv/content/sportsbook-promotions/survive-the-season
So I have two bets placed for today.
Single #305757419
(478) Dallas Cowboys -180 Sep 08/13@08:30p
Competitor: (477) New York Giants
Web US$ 50.00 US$ 27.78
(475) Green Bay Packers vs. (476) San Francisco 49ers
Under 48 (-115) Sep 08/13@04:25p
US$ 50.00 to win US$ 43.48
https://www.bovada.lv/content/sportsbook-promotions/survive-the-season
So I have two bets placed for today.
Single #305757419
(478) Dallas Cowboys -180 Sep 08/13@08:30p
Competitor: (477) New York Giants
Web US$ 50.00 US$ 27.78
(475) Green Bay Packers vs. (476) San Francisco 49ers
Under 48 (-115) Sep 08/13@04:25p
US$ 50.00 to win US$ 43.48
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
You know, I looked into that promotion, and I feel it just didn't pay back enough for me to consider. I have bet enough in week 1 to cover the first portion of it, but I don't know if that trend will continue.
Interesting you chose the DAL/NYG game to bet on. Divisional games like that I tend to stay away from. I feel those two teams are pretty evenly matched, I could see it going either way. Hope the Boys pull it out for ya!
The Under 48 I would have said don't bother on that, due to the potential of two high powered offenses to come out. So far they're at 21 points a bit before half time. Hopefully they can stay at this trend for you to bink it.
I've been staring at another sweetheart teaser for the remaining 3 games that haven't played yet. Was thinking of betting the over, and teasing 10 points per game. It would be NYG/DAL Over 39.5, PHI/WASH Over 42.5, and SD/HOU Over 34. I'm thinking the one that could hold me up on this would be the SD/Hou game. I could see a bunch of 3 and outs and what not... Dunno, up $41 already, might as well wager another $10 right?
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
Given the profit already this week, decided to add another bet I felt was a EV+ move.
3 Team Teaser (I love these teasers if you haven't noticed)
Teased 10 points on all legs, betting the overs.
NYG vs DAL OVER 39.5 @8:30 Sunday
PHI vs WASH OVER 42.5 @7:10 Monday
HOU vs SD OVER 34 @10:20 Monday
RISK $10.00
WIN $9.09
3 Team Teaser (I love these teasers if you haven't noticed)
Teased 10 points on all legs, betting the overs.
NYG vs DAL OVER 39.5 @8:30 Sunday
PHI vs WASH OVER 42.5 @7:10 Monday
HOU vs SD OVER 34 @10:20 Monday
RISK $10.00
WIN $9.09
A
A9ofHearts
Visionary
Silver Level
You know, I looked into that promotion, and I feel it just didn't pay back enough for me to consider. I have bet enough in week 1 to cover the first portion of it, but I don't know if that trend will continue.
Interesting you chose the DAL/NYG game to bet on. Divisional games like that I tend to stay away from. I feel those two teams are pretty evenly matched, I could see it going either way. Hope the Boys pull it out for ya!
The Under 48 I would have said don't bother on that, due to the potential of two high powered offenses to come out. So far they're at 21 points a bit before half time. Hopefully they can stay at this trend for you to bink it.
I've been staring at another sweetheart teaser for the remaining 3 games that haven't played yet. Was thinking of betting the over, and teasing 10 points per game. It would be NYG/DAL Over 39.5, PHI/WASH Over 42.5, and SD/HOU Over 34. I'm thinking the one that could hold me up on this would be the SD/Hou game. I could see a bunch of 3 and outs and what not... Dunno, up $41 already, might as well wager another $10 right?
A friend of mine is giving me tips on what to bet on since I don't really know squat about the NFL, but unfortunately I didn't place a bet on what he suggested because I went to do it a few minutes to late, so next week it should make more sense what I'm betting on lol.
I lost the Under 48 bet which means that so far you have been right 2/2 with what you have told me
A
A9ofHearts
Visionary
Silver Level
Also given that they are supposed to have something like a 10% edge or whatever I think the promotion should be +EV
Also, something you should keep in mind is that if you bet $100 the first 5 weeks you can miss 1 week after that and still get the bonus.
Also, something you should keep in mind is that if you bet $100 the first 5 weeks you can miss 1 week after that and still get the bonus.
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
A friend of mine is giving me tips on what to bet on since I don't really know squat about the NFL, but unfortunately I didn't place a bet on what he suggested because I went to do it a few minutes to late, so next week it should make more sense what I'm betting on lol.
I lost the Under 48 bet which means that so far you have been right 2/2 with what you have told me
Clearly there's no given formula for sports betting, and I am also wrong from time to time. I will gladly give my input on any potential bets you might want some info on. Feel free to take any info provided, hopefully you can string together some wins!
They may be a 10% edge to win, but that's not enough for me to lay money on when it comes to their match up. I aim at other things to exploit. For the NYG/DAL game, they are two teams that can go big and score easy (as we see in the first half), so I decided to include that game in a teaser, subtracting 10 from the Over/Under bet, and bet on the over to clear. Hopefully it works out (they're at 23 at the half, on pace to go over the 39.5 I wagered on).
A
A9ofHearts
Visionary
Silver Level
I meant that Bovada has something like a 10% edge. As in 5% rake on the poker tables and so on. I guess they have their experts figure out what they think the odds of x happening and than adjust what they payout to a winning bet so that they can profit. So I meant if you are betting $100 for 16 weeks and they have a 10% edge that comes out to a profit of $90
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
Just realize this would have hit... BAHHHHHHHHH!!! hahaha... oh well, woulda, coulda, shoulda...
Stay tuned. Will have a wrap up of my thoughts when it comes to week 1 games. A little segment I will call "The Morning After". Novel soon to come.
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
Broncos 49, Ravens 27 - The opening party of Peyton to become the league's MVP again has now begun. Broncos rushing game wasn't able to produce too much, but then they remembered they've got the best QB in history with more weapons than he has before. He utilized the TE in a more New England of last year way, rather than the old Colts way. That could mean more points in the future. Look for many more overs from the Broncos, especially if weather isn't an issue. Ravens are a solid middle of the pack team. They're defense isn't this bad, the Broncos were just that great.
Patriots 23, Bills 21 - This has always been an interesting match up in the past. The Bills always come out fighting against NE. What worries me is that NE needed a last second FG to win the game. They seemed out of character, and even Brady having a couple of turnovers when he typically wouldn't. Hopefully the Pats will get some form back once they get Gronk in full action. Until them, I'm a bit worried. E.J. Manuel is going to show people that he makes this team better than we think.
Chicago 24, Cincy 21 - Chicago is a solid team. They wont always put up Denver like numbers, but they have the ability to post 30 each game. With a new, canadian football league native coach, I think they will want to score a lot. Cutler will find Marshall often, that is for sure. I found these two teams very similar. Cincy is solid as well, but to a lesser extent. Luckily for them, they play Cleveland and Pittsburgh twice, something to look to exploit later with bets. I think Dalton will focus a bit more and not have 2 int games regularly.
Dolphins 23, Browns 10 - The Browns are bad. I thought they might be able to put something together at home in their opener against a rather lesser than avg team, but no. The Browns are bad, mmmmmmk. The Dolphins sure got after the QB. I don't know if I can contribute that to the Dolphins or just going against a bad team. Something to keep an eye on in the future. Don't think they will score a bunch, but if that defense trend continues, lets look out for some Unders.
Lions 34, Vikings 24 - I live in Michigan, and watching this game and seeing my friends post on Facebook "Lions in the superbowl" made me puke a bit. They will score points, yes. They will fall apart mentally with some horrible plays/penalties, yes. More Overs to come in the future, yes. Vikings confused me a bit here. Det was putting 8, even 9 guys in the box all game to stop AP, but they didn't adjust. They kept giving and giving hoping AP will do his thing. Not saying 'Don't give AP the ball', but make some adjustments people. They looked mundane all around unfortunately.
Colts 21, Raiders 17 - This was supposed to be a blow out in the Colts favor, 10 point favs. I'm a huge Colts fan, but when I heard they were putting in Pryer at QB, I knew that was trouble. Colts are a conservative, 'bend don't break' team that barely squeaked by last year. That trend seems to continue with this 'gimmie' of a game. I think the Raiders will be better than we think this year, and Pryer gives them that edge. I see him as a Russell Wilson type, just w/o the great defense. If McFadden stays healthy, they will raise some eyebrows. As for the colts, their defense still concerns me. They'll pull off some more wins, but they will continue to be nail biters, as always.
Saints 23, Falcons 17 - A game I think most got burned on betting the over. I think maybe both teams still have some cobwebs to work out on offense. Maybe come week 3, I will feel more comfortable betting on some overs with them. The Saints look like they will continue to sling it, no problem. Falcons disappointed me. With the addition of Steven Jackson, I expected more from them offensively. Hopefully, next week they can put up close to 35, and I will feel a bit better.
Jets 18, Bucs 17 - Surprising game, none the less. Tampa looked pretty bad, only having 2 maybe 3 big plays all game. They weren't steady at all, and they'll need to fix that to become a solid team. Jets came out with the victory, and looked like the better team. Rookie QB Geno brought the big play ability, and a bit of scramble here and there never hurts. He's the reason they won, and if he stays in all year, expect a few more 'surprise' victories from the Jets (that tasted nasty typing).
Titans 16, Steelers 9 - I'm sorry to anyone who had to watch this game because it was on in their area. I included this in my 'wishful' bet of unders and bad teams. Pit needs to wake up, and it doesn't help they lost some linemen to season ending injuries. Their running game was putrid at best, and Big Ben continues to be a big bust. Pit's DEF can no longer hold them in quality games like they used to. I foresee a lot of L's for Pit. I expect this from the Titans - moving down the field ending in a FG. CJ will break a big one from time to time, but other than that nothing note worthy from them.
Seattle 12, Carolina 7 - This was the biggest question mark of the week for me. Seattle was a lot of pro's fav to win the superbowl, and I think they're overrated in that aspect. Don't get me wrong, real solid team, but this game is why I don't think they're superbowl winners. They were able to produce a couple of long drives, but didn't end them properly. A turnover and penalties took 14 points for them and turned it into just 3. They were close to losing, but their DEF showed up big. They did show they can move the ball down the field, which I liked. Carolina had a nice rushing game, but couldn't convert on 3rd down. Cam decided to throw a bunch of times when I thought he could have easily picked up the first with those legs. I didn't want him to break a big gain, just pick up the first. They'll score more points once they figure the 3rd down conversions.
KC 28, Jacksonville 2 - Jacksonville lost the game before they started warming up. They only got 3 first downs in the entire first half. KC took advantage of playing against a horrible team with their DEF and special teams, creating short fields for their offense to score, and they capitalized. KC's run game was alright, and I would have liked to see a bit more out of their passing game, but it looked like they were just managing for the W and not for the highlight reel.
Rams 27, Cards 24 - I loved hearing about Carson Palmer going to ARZ this year. Larry Fitz is loving it as well. They still have absolutely no running game unfortunately. The sooner they realize that, and keep throwing the ball, the sooner they will be putting up more points. Didn't foresee this game putting up 51 total. The Rams woke up in the 4th, give them credit for that, scoring a TD and 2 FGs to take the lead. They both poise an interesting scenario for future games, tread softly.
49ers 34, Pack 28 - Their offenses are woken up. In my fantasy football thread, I was ranting and raving about the addition of Anquan Boldin for SF. Defenses are so worried about Kaep and his running ability, it opens up the field big time. They only did the 'run option' play no more than 5 times I believe. They're exploiting defenses as the defense prepares them for the run. I like it. The Pack went up against a tough battle for sure. Thought they'd do a bit better with Rodger's accuracy, but he was rushed quite a bit. They will continue to put up numbers for sure.
Cowboys 36, Gmen 31 - This started off to be the game that nobody wanted to win. Turnovers left and right, it was almost like golf, where the team with the highest score loses. The turnovers weren't because of the defenses either. Offenses on the wrong page, running wrong routs, RB's who just don't ever want to hold the football, etc. The teams can surely put up points, and with bad defenses that can only mean one thing in the future - overs.
Patriots 23, Bills 21 - This has always been an interesting match up in the past. The Bills always come out fighting against NE. What worries me is that NE needed a last second FG to win the game. They seemed out of character, and even Brady having a couple of turnovers when he typically wouldn't. Hopefully the Pats will get some form back once they get Gronk in full action. Until them, I'm a bit worried. E.J. Manuel is going to show people that he makes this team better than we think.
Chicago 24, Cincy 21 - Chicago is a solid team. They wont always put up Denver like numbers, but they have the ability to post 30 each game. With a new, canadian football league native coach, I think they will want to score a lot. Cutler will find Marshall often, that is for sure. I found these two teams very similar. Cincy is solid as well, but to a lesser extent. Luckily for them, they play Cleveland and Pittsburgh twice, something to look to exploit later with bets. I think Dalton will focus a bit more and not have 2 int games regularly.
Dolphins 23, Browns 10 - The Browns are bad. I thought they might be able to put something together at home in their opener against a rather lesser than avg team, but no. The Browns are bad, mmmmmmk. The Dolphins sure got after the QB. I don't know if I can contribute that to the Dolphins or just going against a bad team. Something to keep an eye on in the future. Don't think they will score a bunch, but if that defense trend continues, lets look out for some Unders.
Lions 34, Vikings 24 - I live in Michigan, and watching this game and seeing my friends post on Facebook "Lions in the superbowl" made me puke a bit. They will score points, yes. They will fall apart mentally with some horrible plays/penalties, yes. More Overs to come in the future, yes. Vikings confused me a bit here. Det was putting 8, even 9 guys in the box all game to stop AP, but they didn't adjust. They kept giving and giving hoping AP will do his thing. Not saying 'Don't give AP the ball', but make some adjustments people. They looked mundane all around unfortunately.
Colts 21, Raiders 17 - This was supposed to be a blow out in the Colts favor, 10 point favs. I'm a huge Colts fan, but when I heard they were putting in Pryer at QB, I knew that was trouble. Colts are a conservative, 'bend don't break' team that barely squeaked by last year. That trend seems to continue with this 'gimmie' of a game. I think the Raiders will be better than we think this year, and Pryer gives them that edge. I see him as a Russell Wilson type, just w/o the great defense. If McFadden stays healthy, they will raise some eyebrows. As for the colts, their defense still concerns me. They'll pull off some more wins, but they will continue to be nail biters, as always.
Saints 23, Falcons 17 - A game I think most got burned on betting the over. I think maybe both teams still have some cobwebs to work out on offense. Maybe come week 3, I will feel more comfortable betting on some overs with them. The Saints look like they will continue to sling it, no problem. Falcons disappointed me. With the addition of Steven Jackson, I expected more from them offensively. Hopefully, next week they can put up close to 35, and I will feel a bit better.
Jets 18, Bucs 17 - Surprising game, none the less. Tampa looked pretty bad, only having 2 maybe 3 big plays all game. They weren't steady at all, and they'll need to fix that to become a solid team. Jets came out with the victory, and looked like the better team. Rookie QB Geno brought the big play ability, and a bit of scramble here and there never hurts. He's the reason they won, and if he stays in all year, expect a few more 'surprise' victories from the Jets (that tasted nasty typing).
Titans 16, Steelers 9 - I'm sorry to anyone who had to watch this game because it was on in their area. I included this in my 'wishful' bet of unders and bad teams. Pit needs to wake up, and it doesn't help they lost some linemen to season ending injuries. Their running game was putrid at best, and Big Ben continues to be a big bust. Pit's DEF can no longer hold them in quality games like they used to. I foresee a lot of L's for Pit. I expect this from the Titans - moving down the field ending in a FG. CJ will break a big one from time to time, but other than that nothing note worthy from them.
Seattle 12, Carolina 7 - This was the biggest question mark of the week for me. Seattle was a lot of pro's fav to win the superbowl, and I think they're overrated in that aspect. Don't get me wrong, real solid team, but this game is why I don't think they're superbowl winners. They were able to produce a couple of long drives, but didn't end them properly. A turnover and penalties took 14 points for them and turned it into just 3. They were close to losing, but their DEF showed up big. They did show they can move the ball down the field, which I liked. Carolina had a nice rushing game, but couldn't convert on 3rd down. Cam decided to throw a bunch of times when I thought he could have easily picked up the first with those legs. I didn't want him to break a big gain, just pick up the first. They'll score more points once they figure the 3rd down conversions.
KC 28, Jacksonville 2 - Jacksonville lost the game before they started warming up. They only got 3 first downs in the entire first half. KC took advantage of playing against a horrible team with their DEF and special teams, creating short fields for their offense to score, and they capitalized. KC's run game was alright, and I would have liked to see a bit more out of their passing game, but it looked like they were just managing for the W and not for the highlight reel.
Rams 27, Cards 24 - I loved hearing about Carson Palmer going to ARZ this year. Larry Fitz is loving it as well. They still have absolutely no running game unfortunately. The sooner they realize that, and keep throwing the ball, the sooner they will be putting up more points. Didn't foresee this game putting up 51 total. The Rams woke up in the 4th, give them credit for that, scoring a TD and 2 FGs to take the lead. They both poise an interesting scenario for future games, tread softly.
49ers 34, Pack 28 - Their offenses are woken up. In my fantasy football thread, I was ranting and raving about the addition of Anquan Boldin for SF. Defenses are so worried about Kaep and his running ability, it opens up the field big time. They only did the 'run option' play no more than 5 times I believe. They're exploiting defenses as the defense prepares them for the run. I like it. The Pack went up against a tough battle for sure. Thought they'd do a bit better with Rodger's accuracy, but he was rushed quite a bit. They will continue to put up numbers for sure.
Cowboys 36, Gmen 31 - This started off to be the game that nobody wanted to win. Turnovers left and right, it was almost like golf, where the team with the highest score loses. The turnovers weren't because of the defenses either. Offenses on the wrong page, running wrong routs, RB's who just don't ever want to hold the football, etc. The teams can surely put up points, and with bad defenses that can only mean one thing in the future - overs.
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
West side of the state, small town called Muskegon on the water front. Nice in the summers, horrid in the winters.
A
A9ofHearts
Visionary
Silver Level
West side of the state, small town called Muskegon on the water front. Nice in the summers, horrid in the winters.
Cool. I got friends that live about an hour from you.
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand triplesyyx is baaaaaack!!!
I do have high hopes for the Eagles this year. I like what Coach Kelly is about, and I think this will be the first among many overs this year involving PHI. I even benched Romo on my fantasy team in place for Vick.
Where you might get tripped up here is the Chargers +5 one. I just don't like the chargers... not consistent enough. They have talent, and boy do they ever, which is the sad part. Rivers, Matthews, Gates, they can do some stuff, but they always just fall short.
Best of luck man! Tune in tomorrow for my Tuesday $20+ 3 leg parlay!
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
Sounds good bro, I will be posting it up here for certain. I'll be looking to do a 3 leg parlay teaser. I want to make it as much possible for a win as I can, even though that hurts into the profit of a win. I figure, money won is better than money loss.
I haven't looked at any of the lines yet. I'm just looking at the match ups to hopefully find something to exploit, a couple of decent scoring teams or a couple of weak scoring teams.... I haven't seen any specific match ups to exploit yet unfortunately. I might not have many bets this week because of that. Bovada lines aint out yet, but I do agree that saints -3 vs bucs is nice looking. If I can find a couple more spreads I can add some points to, I will be sure to put down another $20+ bet on those three, adding 10 points to their spreads. Will post again tomorrow after the lines are out and I've formulated a plan.
triplesyxx
Rock Star
Silver Level
thanks buddy! eagles lookin strong so far! and vicks givin u some serious points, looks like im not gunna make the under though, didnt think vick was gunna play like this! the charges are shaky, im a little nervous about it.
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER
Was very pleased to see some early action in the late Monday Night game. That allowed me to rest easy knowing 28 of my 34 needed points were scored in the first half.
Recapping this past week's action, I feel it was quite the success. Winning 3 of my 5 parlay bets on the NFL this week nets me in the profit $50.09. Pretty excited about that.
The week 2 lines aren't really out yet, and I'm a bit reserved on the match ups. I will need to see what the lines are to see where some Over/Unders and spreads can be exploited. They need to hurry up, today is Tuesday, and I want to continue the 2 for 1 Tuesday parlay bets they are promoting.
TheKid84
Legend
Silver Level
Here's the 2 for 1 Tuesday parlay teaser I'm thinking of playing. Teasing +10 points in my favor:
Indianapolis Colts +7 vs Miami Dolphins
NY Jets +23 vs NE Pats
Oakland Raiders +4 vs Jacksonville
RISK $25
WIN $22.73
My thought processes:
INDY vs MIA - it's in Indy, and I feel like the colts are the better team. I could see them winning this by 7 alone, but giving them 7 allows some breathing room for those close games they like to make happen.
NY Jets vs NE Pats - I know they always want to run up the score on each other, but the Pats aren't who we thought they were, and neither are the Jets apparently. Geno Smith has gotten some quality time in an actual game now, and w/o any weapons Brady didn't show too much against a rather soft Buffalo last week, and it's a short week cause they play on Thursday. If last week is any indication, I have a feeling this should be interesting. Don't get me wrong, Pats victory for sure, but by more than 23 points??? I don't think so...
OAK vs JAX - OAK shows some potential to put points on the board in Terrell Pryer, and it's an entirely different dimension this team has never had with a mobile QB. Oh yea, JAX just sucks all around. In a long shot, I can see MJD break 2 long TD's, but even then, OAK will score more than 3 TD's on them. I like OAK in this game.
Let me know your thoughts. Tell me if there are other games as a lock you see already. Will be placing a bet before the end of the night!
Indianapolis Colts +7 vs Miami Dolphins
NY Jets +23 vs NE Pats
Oakland Raiders +4 vs Jacksonville
RISK $25
WIN $22.73
My thought processes:
INDY vs MIA - it's in Indy, and I feel like the colts are the better team. I could see them winning this by 7 alone, but giving them 7 allows some breathing room for those close games they like to make happen.
NY Jets vs NE Pats - I know they always want to run up the score on each other, but the Pats aren't who we thought they were, and neither are the Jets apparently. Geno Smith has gotten some quality time in an actual game now, and w/o any weapons Brady didn't show too much against a rather soft Buffalo last week, and it's a short week cause they play on Thursday. If last week is any indication, I have a feeling this should be interesting. Don't get me wrong, Pats victory for sure, but by more than 23 points??? I don't think so...
OAK vs JAX - OAK shows some potential to put points on the board in Terrell Pryer, and it's an entirely different dimension this team has never had with a mobile QB. Oh yea, JAX just sucks all around. In a long shot, I can see MJD break 2 long TD's, but even then, OAK will score more than 3 TD's on them. I like OAK in this game.
Let me know your thoughts. Tell me if there are other games as a lock you see already. Will be placing a bet before the end of the night!