NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[Synopsis]

Atlanta -7
This line is off. It jumps out to me. Jags are bottom tier even with their come back against oakland(who have totally imploded). Atlanta had that bad start but they have looked like Atlanta of old for a month now. If they don't win this by do I'd be shocked.

Lean toward the Chiefs because Chicago just is offensively inefficient. Texans for under a fg, that's all of the games I'm interested in at the moment. Not a very appetizing week at first glance.

 

[Synopsis]

Washington and the Jets are the ones I'd worry about here. Then the colts, even though that's a huge line with the tease, the saints coming off that loss at home could be in full kill mode. You're totally right though, all teasers look nice, forbidden fruit, it's hard not to take a bite from time to time.

Problem is all teasers look good. Small one to start the week.

602037***12/16/19 12:38pm$6.28 w$111.47Pending8 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 5fb & 4bk



Pending12/16/19 8:15pm NFL Football 333 Indianapolis Colts +15 * vs New Orleans Saints



Pending12/22/19 4:05pm NFL Football 459 Oakland Raiders +10½ * vs Los Angeles Chargers



Pending12/22/19 1:00pm NFL Football 466 Washington Redskins +4 * vs New York Giants



Pending12/22/19 1:00pm NFL Football 468 New York Jets +7½ * vs Pittsburgh Steelers



Pending12/22/19 1:00pm NFL Football 473 Baltimore Ravens -6½ * vs Cleveland Browns



Pending12/22/19 4:25pm NFL Football 475 Dallas Cowboys +4 * vs Philadelphia Eagles



Pending12/22/19 4:25pm NFL Football 477 Arizona Cardinals +15½ * vs Seattle Seahawks



Pending12/23/19 8:15pm NFL Football 481 Green Bay Packers +9½ * vs Minnesota Vikings

 

[Synopsis]

I'm going to go ahead and get in on -2.5 on the texans.
Quality team that's against a team who is about average but on a upkick. Kind of feel like this could get ugly. Probability of Houston getting the ball first is high since they are away, which gives you a free possession to access the situation live. If they score, you get to stay ahead of the line. In other words, a relatively low risk bet given buy out possibilities. I expect this line to climb to 4 or so, so I'm on it now. I don't see Winston putting up 450 here, and the value is in betting against the hot team. They don't have evans, and Godwin will be out, yet the line is under against fg. Even in those last 2 games, Winston threw 4 picks. He is kind of just throwing it up, which is what he is used to with evans, who in my opinion may be the most underrated player in the leauge. He made Johnny footballs legend, Johnny sucked but evans would always go up and get those duck passes. Winston has been lucky the last 2 weeks of still doing the throw it up stuff but law of averages, you gotta crash some time. Watson is a more refined version of Winston and the Texans are on the whole just more disiplined and consistent team to me.

 

[Synopsis]

Saints -8
They are up 3 already, and indy is 3rd and 8 in far fg range. Hoping they don't get the 1st and miss the fg for some good value.

Edit... or that they punt it... that was strange, was a long fg sure, but you have to take some risks against the saints in the dome

 

[Synopsis]

1-0 tonight, 12-2 for the week

Kind of regret not betting that second half. It was only -3.

 

[ChickenArise]

I'm going to go ahead and get in on -2.5 on the texans.
Quality team that's against a team who is about average but on a upkick. Kind of feel like this could get ugly. Probability of Houston getting the ball first is high since they are away, which gives you a free possession to access the situation live. If they score, you get to stay ahead of the line. In other words, a relatively low risk bet given buy out possibilities. I expect this line to climb to 4 or so, so I'm on it now. I don't see Winston putting up 450 here, and the value is in betting against the hot team. They don't have evans, and Godwin will be out, yet the line is under against fg. Even in those last 2 games, Winston threw 4 picks. He is kind of just throwing it up, which is what he is used to with evans, who in my opinion may be the most underrated player in the leauge. He made Johnny footballs legend, Johnny sucked but evans would always go up and get those duck passes. Winston has been lucky the last 2 weeks of still doing the throw it up stuff but law of averages, you gotta crash some time. Watson is a more refined version of Winston and the Texans are on the whole just more disiplined and consistent team to me.

I agree. I like this look and I am there on Houston -2.5 early as well. Lets make it an official selection.

Yeah, that teaser is dead. That was fast.

 

[ribbybruno]

How about Yanko57 (1-1-1) please

Yes! I will fix you up! Sorry Yannick! :captain:

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 15 and overall

ribby (3-6)(49-56-1)
Risto (2-2)(20-24-1)
ChickenArise (2-2)(22-27-3)
imhighhommie (0-0)(14-15-1)
synopsis (12-2) (117-54)
TDTODDY (0-0)(16-15)
CRStals (4-2)(47-51-1)
Pokerski (12-3) (58-46)
wewillrockyou (0-0) (10-3)
mrrigel (0-0) (10-9-1)
Aremaz95 (0-0)(21-14)
odn(0-0)(2-0)
an9312 (0-0)(1-0)
LeeCallaghan (0-0) (1-0)
terryk (0-0) (2-0)
rmcmullen2003 (0-0) (1-1)
Jam V92 (0-0) (2-5)
an9312 (0-0)(3-1)
PelyaMX (0-0)(2-2)
Yanko57 (2-1)(3-2-1)

Fixed! Thanks for the heads up and making picks!

 

[Yanko57]

Week 15 and overall

Fixed! Thanks for the heads up and making picks!

Thanks to you for keeping this list!

 

[PokerSki]

I think the following teams will win this week.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers
Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys
Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers

 

[Synopsis]

I second this. Most people don't even conclude their picks at the end of the week and he goes through and does it himself. Shouts out to ribby!

Thanks to you for keeping this list!

 

[ribbybruno]

I second this. Most people don't even conclude their picks at the end of the week and he goes through and does it himself. Shouts out to ribby!

Thanks! Appreciate it! Coming back on Tuesday and going through the thread is fun. I don't focus on peoples picks until after the fact. I will read any pregame data or analysis that might give me an edge through out the week. I thank Chicken Arise, Synopsis and all others who contribute to this thread. We make this thread what it is! :icon_thum

 

[Poker_Toker]

Ok, but I’ll take Philly over Dallas

I think the following teams will win this week.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers
Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys
Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers

. philly $$

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 16 NFL Notes

Saturday -


Houston @ TB - Texans have a trend throughout season ( win, win, loss) - Bucs 11 games Over the total last 12

Buffalo @ NE - Bills involved in 4 straight Unders - Bills lost 16-10 Week 4 to Patriots - Pats have only covered spread twice out of past 6

LA Rams @ SF 49ers - Rams Under total 7 out of last 9 games - 49ers Over total 6 out of last 8 games

Sunday -

Jax @ Atlanta - Jaguars have covered only 1 out of last 6 and won only 1 out of last 6 - Falcons have covered last 5 out of 7 games

Baltimore @ Cleve - Ravens have covered 7 of last 8 - Browns won 1st meeting 45-20

New Orleans @ Tenn - Titans games Over 7 of last 8 games

Carolina @ Indy - Colts have lost 6 out of last 7 games - Panthers Over total 8 out of last 10 games

Cincy @ Miami - Dolphins on trend to win this week- 4 of 5 last Dolphin games have been Over the total -Bengals have not won on the road yet this season

Pittsburgh @ NY Jets - Jets last 9 games ( lost 3 in a row, won 3 in a row, lost 1, won 1, and lost 1)( didn't cover 3 games, covered 3 games, didn't cover 3 games) seeing patterns here -Steelers last 6 games all Under

NY Giants @ Washington - Giants covered 3 of last 4 games - Skins have not covered this season as favorite

Detroit @ Denver - Broncos covered 7 out of last 10 games - Lions have not covered a game in the last 10( only 1 tie vs Minnesota)

Oakland @ LA Chargers - Chargers last 3 games Over -Chargers lost 1st go around 26-24 - Raiders have not covered last 5 games

Dallas @ Philly - All the marbles in the NFC East - Cowboys won 1st time 37-10

Arizona @ Seattle - Seattle won 1st meeting 27-10 in Arizona

Kansas City @ Chicago - Chiefs have covered and won 4 straight - Bears 6 games Under the total last 8 games

Monday -

Green Bay @ Minnesota - Packers 6 straight games with Under total - Vikings last 5 out of 6 games Over total

 

[Risto234]

This weekend i'm going with following 4 bets

Patriots vs Bills; over 36.5 @1.91
Redskins vs Giants; over 41.0 @1.91
Jets vs Steelers; over 37.0 @1.91
Broncos vs Lions; over 38.0 @1.91

 

[ChickenArise]

Adding Cowboys -1 as Phillys offense is often anemic
and Oakland +7 as Chargers dont beat anyone by that many the few times they muster up a win and dont beat themselves.

Parlaying
HOU/DAL/and OAK this week. Good Luck all!

 

[Yanko57]

NE -6.5 vs Buffalo

I think the Patriots will make a stand here. I would not be surprised if Buffalo ends up single digit here away from home.

Carolina +6.5 vs Indy

Cinderella story is dead... Adrenaline from losing Luck before the season is definitely gone. I don't understand this line, but I'm not a pro bettor.

Seattle -9.5 vs Arz

Seattle has something to gain from this game. Away from home, the Cards don't stand a chance agaist the runner-up MVP.

P.S.: Thanks Synopsis, I bet on Houston early based on your analyze early on... I believe in it!

 

[ChickenArise]

Carolina +6.5 vs Indy

Cinderella story is dead... Adrenaline from losing Luck before the season is definitely gone. I don't understand this line, but I'm not a pro bettor.

CAR - QB Will Grier named Week 16 starter

 

[Synopsis]

No problem. It's a solid bet, probably the most solid bet this week on paper. Winston would have to have a game like the last 2 for them to win, and that's highly unlikely, although you could have said the same thing last week, not about them winning, but about his stats. The thing with those stats is like I said though, he still threw 4 picks in those 2 games. He really is kind of just lobbing it up and the tape shows that. A cover 2 or cover 3 press manwith hot zones to the flats would really mess him up and I expect Houston to know that, and to do so.

That indy line, while being a little higher than I think it should be, is understandable. Panthers have fallen apart out of nowhere as of late. Teams really homing in on mc. Indy is a talented team all all round all roundness they should be favored on paper, but almost all round td is a bit much, should be more like 4.5. I'd buy the hook on that 6.5 regardless though.

NE -6.5 vs Buffalo

I think the Patriots will make a stand here. I would not be surprised if Buffalo ends up single digit here away from home.

Carolina +6.5 vs Indy

Cinderella story is dead... Adrenaline from losing Luck before the season is definitely gone. I don't understand this line, but I'm not a pro bettor.

Seattle -9.5 vs Arz

Seattle has something to gain from this game. Away from home, the Cards don't stand a chance agaist the runner-up MVP.

P.S.: Thanks Synopsis, I bet on Houston early based on your analyze early on... I believe in it!

 

[Synopsis]

That cowboys line is suspect isn't it? I suppose it's like that due to daks shoulder, but it's still has a decent of fish to it. Cowboys finally looked like a team of their talent last week, against the rams who the previous week looked like they themselves were finally living get up to their talent.

Oakland dug a hole for themselves losing 2 games they should have won. They have to be really desperate here which means they will have huge stats, or a ton of turnovers.

Adding Cowboys -1 as Phillys offense is often anemic
and Oakland +7 as Chargers dont beat anyone by that many the few times they muster up a win and dont beat themselves.

Parlaying
HOU/DAL/and OAK this week. Good Luck all!

 

[ChickenArise]

Coming off of Oakand. They will be missing too many players. Yes the Dallas line is acting quite suspect. I cant see betting the Eagles. Doubling down on Dallas.

 

[we will rock you]

jets ml i think they beat the steelers the game is at home if it was it pitt i say no

 

[an9312]

bills + 6.5

 

[Yanko57]

CAR - QB Will Grier named Week 16 starter

Oh... Thanks!

 

[Yanko57]

After what Chicken Arise just posted (thanks again), I would like to change this pick for this one:

Phi/Dal OVER 46

Division rivals, lot at stakes. Everything is set for an offensive match.

NE -6.5 vs Buffalo

Carolina +6.5 vs Indy

Cinderella story is dead... Adrenaline from losing Luck before the season is definitely gone. I don't understand this line, but I'm not a pro bettor.