NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[ChickenArise]

This is interesting. It is a podcast from the data service Clear Data Sports (not a tout). If you are interested in what they do and how to use the data it you can listen to the podcast from the beginning.

If you however are just interested in the Vikings Chargers game matchup, They discuss the analytics starting from 11:30. If you start here its not that long maybe under 7 minutes of analysis.

Listening to them I see why the Chargers are drawing some of the sharp action.

https://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/a/b/9/ab...76350907&hwt=e130f0ebdcd4cba8620df748f1271124

Where I think the model may be a bit flawed is Minn offense road efficiency sounds like its being calculated from the beginning of the season where Minn started a bit weak. Of course with the data you could adjust this with your own model.

 

[Synopsis]

I could see why someone could see an angle to it, but to me those angles are less probable than the angles for Minnesota. Minnesota is one of the most complete teams in the league and they play solid regardless of at home or away. Only having to win, no worries of a back door or anything, I'd take the Vikings here every time and if it played 100 times, I'm more than confident I'd walk away with a decent profit. That said, any given Sunday right? It takes a lot for me to escape the raw data, as to say, for me to make a bet that contradicts the data due to me having a "feeling", or for a "if" situation.

I'll give an example of that. The Vikings on paper are a great run defence team right. But if you look at the last 3 or 4 games they have actually given up like 35 yards more a game above their average. Gordon is one of the best backs in the leauge. "If" the Vikings trend continues of giving up a considerable amount more yards than their average on the ground, and "if" Gordon has a game that he is very much so capable of having, I could see the chargers winning because that would make them focus more toward the run and the Vikings defensive flaw is pass defence, and rivers is a vet. That's a if scenario that I could run with as my angle if I wanted the chargers line. I'm curious to what the market average here because I would bet it's close to the probability of the Vikings winning, which I would say is 70 percent or so, which is huge in football. Fact is, you can make any if scenario for any team any week, and on paper it would be honest and legit, but it would take overlooking a lot of things. On paper the Vikings win this game the vast majority of the time, and that's all they need to do because the line is just -1.

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 14 Monday (1-0) +1.00 Units/ +$100 Overall (46-50-1) -9.00Units/-$900

Recap - Eagles flat in first half - Giants cover (1-0)

Week 15 Sunday -

Houston (+3) @ Tennessee - All the marbles in the AFC South! Texans flat last week. Rebound game for Watson and offense

KC/DEN Over 43.5 - Expect some fireworks - Lock and Broncos over 30 last 2 games

Washington (+6.5) @ Home vs Philly - Skins will play hard vs their neighbor - see a 20-17 game

Oakland (-6.5) @ Home vs Jax - Last game in Oakland - should be emotional - Jaguars have been whipped last 4 games pretty handily

LA Chargers (+1.5) @ Home vs Minnesota - Like this dog - Chargers playing much better as of late

LA Rams (E) @ Dallas - Rams Defense too much for wishy washy Cowboys

Buffalo (+1.5) @ Pittsburgh - Bills on trend to knock off Steelers

1 Unit each - $100

 

[ChickenArise]

scoresandodds.com week 15 lines

scoresandodds.com week 15 lines.
Monday Night New Orleans -9/46.5


Good luck!

 

[ChickenArise]

I could see why someone could see an angle to it, but to me those angles are less probable than the angles for Minnesota. Minnesota is one of the most complete teams in the league and they play solid regardless of at home or away. Only having to win, no worries of a back door or anything, I'd take the Vikings here every time and if it played 100 times, I'm more than confident I'd walk away with a decent profit. That said, any given Sunday right? It takes a lot for me to escape the raw data, as to say, for me to make a bet that contradicts the data due to me having a "feeling", or for a "if" situation.

I'll give an example of that. The Vikings on paper are a great run defence team right. But if you look at the last 3 or 4 games they have actually given up like 35 yards more a game above their average. Gordon is one of the best backs in the leauge. "If" the Vikings trend continues of giving up a considerable amount more yards than their average on the ground, and "if" Gordon has a game that he is very much so capable of having, I could see the chargers winning because that would make them focus more toward the run and the Vikings defensive flaw is pass defence, and rivers is a vet. That's a if scenario that I could run with as my angle if I wanted the chargers line. I'm curious to what the market average here because I would bet it's close to the probability of the Vikings winning, which I would say is 70 percent or so, which is huge in football. Fact is, you can make any if scenario for any team any week, and on paper it would be honest and legit, but it would take overlooking a lot of things. On paper the Vikings win this game the vast majority of the time, and that's all they need to do because the line is just -1.

I am leaning Vikings as well. San Diego finds ways to lose games. Still a bit suspicious about this game and not loving it.

 

[CRStals]

Some interesting games happening today - let's give it a go!
New England -10.5 v Cincinnati
Miami +3.5 v NY Giants
Tampa Bay -5.5 v Detroit
Houston +3 v Tennessee
Cleveland -2.5 v Arizona
Buffalo +1.5 v Pittsburgh

1 unit each
GL everyone

 

[Synopsis]

It's a pk now, and I'm taking it. The second half line would be a simple buy out if the simple score is a possession so I see a lot of value to risk ratio.

A few others have dropped to pk. I made a parlay for giggles that's 23 to 1 since the movements.

I forgot to post my second half plays, damn.

I am leaning Vikings as well. San Diego finds ways to lose games. Still a bit suspicious about this game and not loving it.

 

[Synopsis]

Texans live is a pk, even though they seem up 7 late, and have the ball. Ton of value here because even if they don't score on this drive, which they probably won't since they are on their 9, even if the titans score, the live line would move to 2.5 on the titans. So unless a safety happens, this is effectively a free bet

Also taking Philly live -2.5
They just scored, game seems similar to last week's where they dominated the later parts of the game, and again, even if Washington scores, the live line would be kind to a clean buy out. I I like these low risk plays.


pats -16.5
Kind of risky because they won't be playing for tds, and their kicking hasn't been lights out, but they have food field position, and decent defence for there after. If they miss a fg if they don't score, this line likely wouldn'the move past the reach of buying out because you could go the opposite side. Again... low risk plays

Edit ... Washington tied it, but I'm not going to buy out of that game, at least not yet. Texans got a fg and that's likely ball game. Guess I was wrong about the pats not playing for tds, they went right down the field. Doesn't really change the wager though because cincy are playing to or nothing.

 

[Synopsis]

Dang... bad time and place for a turnover philly... that's worst case scenario because it's almost a guaranteed 3, so thathat live line won't be 2.5, most likely 3.5... that sucks

 

[Synopsis]

Nice, Philly just scored with 26 seconds left. Not going to cover full game, but barring something crazy the live should work out. That turnover really sucked, if they had just drove there and got a few I would have at least pushed the full game spread, but could of been worse.

 

[Synopsis]

Wooooowwww... Philly with a fumble run back for a td with no time left to give me the full game win, haha, those unexpected wins are the best.

 

[ChickenArise]

Wooooowwww... Philly with a fumble run back for a td with no time left to give me the full game win, haha, those unexpected wins are the best.

Glad it worked out for you. It screwed up some of my parlays that would have otherwise been perfect needing only Rams and Bills to pay. Largest one being a 7 way. Oh well. Thats how it goes. Still live for smaller ones.

 

[Synopsis]

Browns -4 second half
Not in love with this, but the numbers line up nice for good odds of at least a push.

 

[Synopsis]

Vikings +3.5
Wish they hadnt scored a td there before half, but I still like them being given points regardless.

 

[Synopsis]

I was considering the bills but it's hard to get past a certain aspect. Bills arent good with the pass game, and Pitt is one of the best in the league defending it... ton of interceptions, ton of coverage sacks... it's a huge discrepancy. I think that game would be best bet live after seeing a few possessions rather than bet the spread before kickoff.

Cleveland coat me a so far flawless NFL week. They just don't know how to use their parts at all. Just think, their oc gets paid 7 digits, and it never occurs to him to get chubb to the flats, or double move iso with obj. The misuse of chubb is really mind blowing to me. You have speed like that, and a perfect recipe to look at... Chris johnson. Look at not what he did on outside handoffs, and plays that originated in three flats. Then look how he wae used later, which is how chibb is used now. They should have one of the better records in the league right now considering the tools they have. Cleveland is the type of team that if they had Hester in his prime, they wouldnt have him return kicks, and they would have him running routes. Morons.

 

[Synopsis]

The way this game is going, I like the live of +1.5. It's slow and next to no movement. That's more the bills game than pitts.

 

[Synopsis]

8-2 today, 11-2 for the week. I don't think I'll be on tomorrow's game.

Win - Ravens -14
Win - Ravens tt over 30
Win - Jets tt over 13
Win - Philly -6
Win - Pats -9
Loss - Browns -2
Win - Vikings pk
Win - Texans pk
Win - Philly -2.5
Win - Pats -16.5
Loss - Browns -4 second half
Win - Vikings +3.5 second half
Win - Buffalo +1.5

Cleveland cost me. Going for it on 4th and 2 well inside of fg range when needing 2 scores killed them, cards ran away with it after that. If they kicked that fg, they would have been down 8, and had the momentum. That team is next to untrustable.

 

[Synopsis]

Was unexpected for sure, I was just hoping to hit the live line, then that happened.

Rams didn't show up huh. I almost got on that game because it felt like the rams finally clicked, but then Dallas looks like they finally clicked today. Hard to trust either of those teams.

Glad it worked out for you. It screwed up some of my parlays that would have otherwise been perfect needing only Rams and Bills to pay. Largest one being a 7 way. Oh well. Thats how it goes. Still live for smaller ones.

 

[ribbybruno]

Wooooowwww... Philly with a fumble run back for a td with no time left to give me the full game win, haha, those unexpected wins are the best.

Unbelievable! $210 swing in one play lol

 

[Risto234]

My NFL bets for this weekend ...

Packers vs Bears; over 40.5 @1.91
Bengals vs Patriots; over 41.5 @1.91
Redskins vs Eagles; over 39.5 @1.91
Steelers vs Bills; over 36.0 @1.91

Okay then. Another average weekend it seems thanks to 2 wins and 2 losses ...

 

[ChickenArise]

Was unexpected for sure, I was just hoping to hit the live line, then that happened.

Rams didn't show up huh. I almost got on that game because it felt like the rams finally clicked, but then Dallas looks like they finally clicked today. Hard to trust either of those teams.

Yeah Rams blew, else its a big win week. Buffalo paid for the parlay costs so cant complain. Hodges beat them more than anything.

Nothing is really catching my eye this week, except maybe Baltimore but I really dont like laying 10 on the road. Gonna be looking for value somewhere maybe taking points in a teaser.

 

[ribbybruno]

Week 15 Sunday (2-5) -3.50 Units/ -$350 Overall (48-55-1) -12.50 Units/-$1250

Recap - Texans rebound and win tough game (1-0), Snow falls in KC and grounds scoring (0-1), Frantic last play downs the spread in Washington game (0-1), Oakland forgets to play 2nd half and loses in the end (0-1) bye bye Coliseum, LA Chargers have crucial turnovers and then get stomped (0-1) Rams get beat in Dallas (0-1) and Buffalo plays defense to beat Pittsburgh (1-0)

Week 15 Monday-

New Orleans (-9.5) @ Home vs Indy - Saints on trend to cover spread - Thomas should have a huge day

NO/IND Over 47 - Who isn't out in the secondaries of these clubs?

1 Unit each - $100

 

[ChickenArise]

Maybe Oakland plus points. Gotta take a better look but seems doable.

 

[ChickenArise]

Problem is all teasers look good. Small one to start the week.

602037***12/16/19 12:38pm$6.28 w$111.47Pending8 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 5fb & 4bk



Pending12/16/19 8:15pm NFL Football 333 Indianapolis Colts +15 * vs New Orleans Saints



Pending12/22/19 4:05pm NFL Football 459 Oakland Raiders +10½ * vs Los Angeles Chargers



Pending12/22/19 1:00pm NFL Football 466 Washington Redskins +4 * vs New York Giants



Pending12/22/19 1:00pm NFL Football 468 New York Jets +7½ * vs Pittsburgh Steelers



Pending12/22/19 1:00pm NFL Football 473 Baltimore Ravens -6½ * vs Cleveland Browns



Pending12/22/19 4:25pm NFL Football 475 Dallas Cowboys +4 * vs Philadelphia Eagles



Pending12/22/19 4:25pm NFL Football 477 Arizona Cardinals +15½ * vs Seattle Seahawks



Pending12/23/19 8:15pm NFL Football 481 Green Bay Packers +9½ * vs Minnesota Vikings

 

[ChickenArise]

With Godwin and Evans out maybe Houston worth a look.