NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

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Should have been a lot more than 55. I'm still confused on what garret was thinking. Almost like he was talking out. Congrats on your hit though. You owe Dallas a Christmas card haha.
Worded that wrong - Defenses are similar. Defense within 30 for the season - Chicago only giving up 17 points a game and Dallas only giving up 19 on average - but all that is moot after both teams scored 55 combined lol
 
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I'm going to the 49ers/saints game, so I won't be on a lot of games this week. I don't like to not have some control of what's happening with my bets, and when I go to a game I like to experience the game, not being tied to my phone looking at live lines. So that said...

Ravens -5.5
They are putting up points, but what I like of them recently is their defence is playing at a level that was expected preseason. Bills are solid, but that's it to me, just solid. Unless something changes this week, their offence won't be able to keep up, and their defence should be roughly the same as the Ravens or down just a notch. Would take a collapse by the ravens, and I don't think that will happen until the playoffs.

Browns -7
On paper this is a terrible match up for the bengals. Chubb should put up major stats here, which should allow baker to be less accident prone from not having good to force so many passes. Cleveland has a good pass defence and I don't think Dalton can make magic happen again. My key here really is all on chubb and the pass defence. I'm not going to over think it.

I'll probably play the rams and Seahawks since it's the late game, but I haven't made my mind up. Seattle seems like the obvious choice given how they are playing, but the rams torched them in the air last time and that's what geoff needs to get going. Also they used girly more recently, which really has been their weakness this season. They don't use their stars correctly, much like dallas. At first I thought they were trying to get him healthy, but now I think it was something different. I'd lean rams right now but I'll look at it over the next few days

Don't want more plays than that really as I won't be watching lines during the games.
 
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I got San Francisco +3 earlier in the week
but the line is now 2 so for this threads purposes we will make it a lean.

Official Plays this week are

Rams (pick em)
KC +3
Tenn -3
 
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So many injuries to consider this week and not the best week last week so here's hoping we can turn this around!

Baltimore -6.5 v Buffalo
Miami +5 v NY Jets
Atlanta -3.5 v Carolina
Denver +8.5 v Houston
New Orleans -2.5 v San Francisco
Tampa Bay -3.5 v Indy
Seattle +1.5 v LA Rams

1 unit each
GL everyone
 
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Week 14 Thursday Results (1-0) +1.0 Units/ +$100 Overall (42-49) -11.90 Units/-$1,190

Recap - Bears keep Dallas defense on the field - not good in Dallas camp right now (1-0)

Week 14 Sunday -

Miami (+5) @ NY Jets - Dolphins covered last 6 out of 8 - RB Bell out for Jets

Minnesota (-13) @ Home vs Detroit - Lions (0-7 ATS last 7) lost 24-9 last year in Minnesota

SF (+2) @ New Orleans - Saints Defense banged up - like the 49ers in this spot

Seattle (E) @ LA Rams - Going to stick with Russell Wilson

1 Unit each - $100
 
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Week 14 Lines scores and odds.com

Week 14 Lines scores and odds.com
Monday night PHL -10/45
 

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ribbybruno

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Adding Denver +8.5 @ Houston - Texans will play down to Broncos and make this close
 
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Glancing at halftimes real quick, no time for explanations
Ravens -3
Browns -3
Green bay -6
Vikings -4
Atlanta pk
 
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Sunday games ...

Browns vs Bengals; over 40.0 @1.91
Packers vs Redskins; over 41.5 @1.95


1 win and 1 loss ... not too great but not too bad either ...
 
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4-2 and a push so far. Really makes me mad that home teams with leads just sit on the ball like the Vikings and green bay seem to have done. Looking over the games now that I'm back to the hotel.
Only thingI have left is the titans and Oakland over, but I'm going to add Oakland second half tt over 10. Probably my last play of the day, I'm about to go out after I see whatever the Chiefs and pats second half lines are here in a minute.

Pats -2.5 second half
A team with a lot of pride down dd at home. Pats make good second half adjustments usually. The little I've seen of this game the refs seem a little friendly to the kc side, but you'd still expect this game to end 10 or under.
Chiefs tt over 10
Pats tt over 14
Same as playing the over, but breaks it in 2 where instead of a loss it could cancel out. At some point in this game the over will come down to where one of these would have to hit, and if I pay attention to it, which I probably wont, you could alternate buys per possession. In other words, it's low risk if you work the angles.

Drop everything after p, and before the i, and you've got it.

That means penalty kick right ... :rolleyes:
 
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What's with these blocked kicks?

Considering the rams the more that I look into it, but I'm passing on it most likely

Betting that review to be overturned. There is no question about it.

I hate that I even bet this game, now I feel handcuffed to it and have to sit here watching lines.

Another note, these refs are heavy on kc. I me turned it earlier, but now that I've seen more of the game it's glaring. That was a clear scoop and score, and they whistled it. And the challenge get before that was clearly a half yard behind the line.
 
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Titans/raiders under 64.5
Weird line for this late. Im assuming it's because they are on the 1 and safety is a concern, but Henry is a best
 
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8-5 today

Win - Ravens -6
Win - Browns -7
Win - Titans/Oakland over 47
Win - Browns -3 second half
Loss - Green bay -6 second half
Loss - Vikings -4 second half
Win - Atlanta pk second half
Loss - Oakland second half tt over 10
Win Pats -2.5 second half
Loss - Pats over 14 tt
Loss - Chiefs over 10 tt
Win - Pats review overturn yes
Win - Titans/raiders under 64.5

Got ripped off on the pats tt. That scoop and score that they whistled, the td they said was out, and the blatant pass interference that would have either been a td, or they would have had it on the 3 or 4. It likely made the kc tt lose also, because they didn't have to air it out. I thought about buying out with the under, but I really thought Brady would tie the game, then one or the other would have won, but I didnt. Not happy with the day, but I won more than I lost so it is what it is. I'm not on the rams game. I was supposed to be out like a hour ago then I got caught up in that game. Phone is going into my pocket and I won't even look at the score on the late game. Good luck to anyone who is on that game.

Oh and that push on the Ravens second half... the bills going for 2 that early was weird, and that the Ravens didn't even defend it... would have won otherwise.
 
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Week 14 Sunday (3-1-1) +1.90 Units/ +$190 Overall (45-50-1) -10.00Units/-$1,000

Recap - Dolphins lose by 1 in close game with Jets(1-0), Minnesota tie the spread (-13) winning 20-7 (0-0-1), SF wins in a spectacular game with Saints (1-0), Broncos beat up Texans (1-0) and Seattle lost to a determined Rams team (0-1)

Week 14 Monday -

NY Giants (+9.5) @ Philly - Giants and Eagles both averaging around 20 points a game - Eli Manning returns and wins 4 straight - Schurmer fired on his ass :)

1 Unit each - $100
 
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I'm considering this play too, but the Giants having both of their top tight ends out is sketchy with a qb who might try to over do it. You can't think he won't have a certain amount of pride and try to have a huge game, which could be a recipe for disaster. Barkley hasn't done much of anything since being back, though last game he was decent. Without the tightends, it just seems obvious that eli would have a lot of dump offs to barkley, which knowing that, makes it easier to defend. Philly actually has something to play for here, and this spot and next game against Washington should be momentum builders on their late push for the play offs. Haven't made my mind up yet, just my first thought on it.

Barkley over 4 receptions would probably be a solid bet.
Week 14 Sunday (3-1-1) +1.90 Units/ +$190 Overall (45-50-1) -10.00Units/-$1,000

Recap - Dolphins lose by 1 in close game with Jets(1-0), Minnesota tie the spread (-13) winning 20-7 (0-0-1), SF wins in a spectacular game with Saints (1-0), Broncos beat up Texans (1-0) and Seattle lost to a determined Rams team (0-1)

Week 14 Monday -

NY Giants (+9.5) @ Philly - Giants and Eagles both averaging around 20 points a game - Eli Manning returns and wins 4 straight - Schurmer fired on his ass :)

1 Unit each - $100
 
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Early plays for this week.

Ravens -14
Philly -6
Pats -9
Browns -2

I'll go in depth on them later in the week
 
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I have a free prop bet for this game, not sure on what to play. I don't really want a "safe" bet. I want something with a pay out because the free bet is only for 100. Right now I'm considering Barkley 2+ touchdowns because I could see it happening more often than 1 in 5 times, which is what the odds are. Any opinions on this, or possibly a better prop for this game?
 
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Philly down to 9... I'll take a stab at it. Should be obvious in the first 6 minutes which Philly team shows up. I'm mostly betting this for the 2 reasons I mentioned earlier. Philly needs it, so you would assume the Philly staff will try to open it up some, and I just picture Eli either having 400 yards, or trying to hard and making mistakes due to that.
 
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Actually, I'm going to get on the over 44 too since it's dropped. Both teams have been bad defensively, more so lately, I could see a lot of nothing happening, then big plays in bursts throughout where it turns into a shoot out.
 
ChickenArise

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Im on the Bills Money Line early for this coming week but for this threads purposes we will take the +2 points.
 
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Philly +13.5 live
Maybe they can, I don't know... score? I suspect the Giants will clock as long as they have at least a 2 possession lead

Pretty boring game to watch. Over is still possible but unlikely, and Philly isn't going to cover, and most likely won't even win. Might be able to buy out though if they can get a few drives together.
 
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