I'd say the line is what it should be, and volume of bets on a side doesn't dictate movement.
Let's break it down to the most simple it can be. Rams are a more talented team, but aren't playing up to that talent on average. Ravens are less talented, but are playing up to that talent, even beyond it. It's that simple, no need of sites compiling mostly useless information on it.
Why shouldn't the line be 6/6.5 given the above information? Ravens main advantage in most games is what? Jackson's ability to make plays with his feet. The Rams are fast on the outside, and then donald is sitting in the middle. The perfect combo against a qb like jackson. The Rams also play a lot of cover 2 hard flats and man press cover 2. That leaves little room for delayed runs, such as Jackson taking off when he sees a lane with tight coverage. The line is basically saying Jackson will have to rely more on actual passing here against what, on paper, is a super talented secondary.
I think fowler will be the key here if the rams blitz a lot, which I think they should. I could see him getting some strip coverage sacks. Ingram should be less effective given his running style, which again, will make Jackson have to pass more then his usual mid 20s.
That's really it from a betting standpoint. The books totally expect the Ravens to get the mass of the bets from casual bettors, which will be a small percentage of the total money. The professionals who actually cap games will be more split between the 2, and that's the ones who actually lay down substantial money. I think the advantages the rams have are incorporated into the line so it breaks down to do you want to ride the hot team, or the more talented team at home. The rams have MASSIVELY underperformed this year, yet are still 6-4. It is something to consider.
It's that simple, you seem to think the rams will not perform up, or at least to a good percentage of their talent, and that the Ravens will continue to play at least as well as the last few games. If you think that, I would suggest betting it now, because I'd be surprised if the line doesn't go above 3 soon. It may come back down after the Sunday games, but why pass on 3 when it's already there.
And the movement has been a lot at this point for a Monday game, it opened at 1 didn't it? Already 2 points of movement , and was, midweek for a Monday game? That's a large move considering. Lines don't move off of key numbers as easily, but that line will go up still in my opinion. May hit 4 before it settles.
Also, notice that the 3 people who have posted their picks for this week all are on baltimore, but I'm assuming those are small bets. If ribby bets on the rams, it would be 3-1 but more money on the 1 than the 3 combined. Volume is meaningless unless you're a fade the public guy, which to me has always been a ridiculous and let to bet games off of. I'm thinking he will be on the Ravens also if the line stays 3.
Baltimore Ravens vs LA Rams is the most bet game by the public during off peak betting hours. Right now thats about 81% of the bets are coming in Ravens -3
The line is not moving. This is a sign of a trap line. Now I realize the game is a few days away and as we get closer to game time the line may nudge a bit higher but there is obviously some 'sharp' money going on the LA Rams.
Rams get Cook back but will this be enough?
I realize Baltimore doesnt have a stellar Pass Rush but help me to see how the LA Rams have a shot at winning or covering.
If Baltimore covers I will forever stop suggesting that the NFL fixes games but as of now this game is looking like the fix is in.
Just to make it even more likely that the Rams will win, I am adding Baltimore -3 as an official play and my lock of the year.
Be warned.