NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[Synopsis]

Line is starting to move up. I'm not on it yet, and may not play it at all, but taking the pointa here makes sense. Bengals lost to Seattle and buffalo by just a few points combined, both while being on the road. Yeah they got blown out by the 49ers, but the 49ers are legit. Pitt played the 49ers also and lost just by 4.... but that was a freakish game where the 49ers literally gave the ball away every time they were about to score, not only that, but they gave it away inside their own 20 twice to give pitt 2 scores. That game was basically the same as what the 49ers fid to the Bengals when you factor that in. It's a rivalry game also, though not a very exciting one now... but rivalry games tend to be close. If that line goes up another half point, or if it gets juiced to Pittsburgh where the half point can be bought for the price of a normal line, I'll most likely take it. A teaser of the under with the Bengals plus points doesn't seem like a bad idea either.

 

[we will rock you]

pass on this monday game i think

 

[Synopsis]

I went ahead and bought the hook since it was cheap with the juice on pitt. Bengals +4 @-116

Pitt is in the bottom 3 in both defence and offence. Bengals are only a little better on defence, but they are close to the middle of the field on the offensive rating. Bengals should get the ball first, so the first drive resulting in any points at all would make a later buyout somewhat risk free, even if he first water ended 3 or 7 to 0 for pitt, the line wouldn't be much different. Kind of just viewing this as a free bet with what has been the better team getting the points.

On paper this should be a low scoring close game like 23 to 17 or so, but it's been a weird week, so we will see. Could easily be one of those games where both teams just give up points like both teams were offence juggernauts. So for that, I'm avoiding the total.

 

[77ecos]

PITVS CIN IT

it should be a game of many points, the over would have to be easily covered

 

[Synopsis]

Kind of sad how far pitt has fallen. Trick plays on your second series??? So desperate. You don't bust out trick plays like that at the beginning of a game when you're down 3 points man.

 

[Synopsis]

Pitt is getting the idea, attack the opponents weakness. Bengals on the other had are playing into pitts strengths and not going downfield. Makes you wonder how that oc gets paid millions a year. That live line is too good to pass on as a buyout.

 

[Synopsis]

2 plays later wide open. Bengals need to sling it now. Hopefully this helps the play I had on Daltons yards, because he isn't even close right now

 

[Synopsis]

What are these idiots doing??? You would think they are up 21 wasting all this time.

 

[Synopsis]

2-3 on this game...

you want to tell me Dalton isn't a curse? Every bet related to him lost, every bet not related to him won, easily. Ross got his 3rd catch with a quarter a day a half left in the game and he got injured on that play... one catch away from the win on the prop.

I can't blame just dalton. I can't understand the coaching here. They played so slow when they got down. They ran the same plays over and over even though they weren't working. They were playing against the 2nd worst pass defence in the league, and didn't once pass it past 20 yards in the air. They did a bunch of short passes, which played into Pitts strength on defence. I kind of feel like they are tanking on purpose to get tua. I wouldn't be surprised if they keep green out all year either, or play him very limited when he comes back. I'll never be on dalton again, and that's my fault, I've said how he was a curse forever, and still bet him. Never again.

 

[Synopsis]

Ravens -3

I think this last week set this game line up perfectly if you want to be on the Ravens side. Ravens losing big, and Pitt winning big. This line would have been over 7 had the Ravens won, and over 10 if the Bengals didn't do...whatever that was they did.

I think too much is being put into the Ravens "lack of defence" they played 2 big offensive teams in a row with a lot of talent on the offensive side. It breaks down easy for me, do I think the steelers will score more or the same against the Ravens as they did against the bengals. To me, no. Will the steelers hold the Ravens under 30? To me, no.

This is set up for a blowout. The Ravens absolutely need the game to get some momentum back, so I would expect their game plan to be aggressive, and unlike dalton, for Lamar to actually, you know... not stand in place when he sees the rush coming. That's really what killed the bengals, dalton just kind of stood there even when he had a blocker in place if he just took a single step to his left.

Again conner is questionable for the game, regardless, the way Pitt uses mason with the backs which was 90 percent of the offense against the Bengals should play well into the Ravens defensive scheme. I'm sure pitt knows that, and will try to open it up more and that's a question mark. I don't see them being successful with that, but even if they are, I don't think they can keep pace with a desperate Ravens offense with their terrible defense that the Bengals refused to exploit. That's a positive for the Ravens too, as it makes Pitt players think they played defense well and maybe a little over confident now.

I don't put a ton of weight into it, but it's also a short week for Pittsburgh, and that helps their opponents on the injury front as they have lesa time to recuperate little nagging things like conner has.

If you like the Ravens in this spot, I would jump on it because I can't picture this line not moving up and up.

 

[Synopsis]

Saints -3

Only way this line could be better is if the saints would have lost to dallas. I expect the line would have been 7.5 to open had the rams not shot themselves in the foot with all those turnovers to start that game last week.

I don't see this as being as lopsided a bet as the Ravens game because I think the buccs could win this game if Winston plays like he did last week. Has Winston ever had 2 good games in as row? Vs elite teams? Both on the road? That seems a high thing to ask for. Saints didn't have to travel either so they will have a whole extra day to prepare here.

The buccaneers would have to win the turnover battle at a 2 to 1 clip, and play as efficient as they did this last week to win here. I don't see that happening as the saints are well coached and disciplined, more so, they are consistent, which the buccs have never been.

 

[ribbybruno]

This week and overall
ribby (4-7)(9-18)
Risto (1-1)(2-4)
ChickenArise (0-0)(9-8)
imhighhommie (0-2)(3-6)
synopsis (13-13) (51-30)
TDTODDY (3-1)(9-6)
CRStals (2-9)(7-16)
an9312 (0-0)(1-0)
Aremaz95 (4-3)(7-5)
Pokerski (0-0) (6-4)
LeeCallaghan (0-0) (1-0)
terryk (0-0) (2-0)

 

[Risto234]

First bets for this weekend ...

Raiders vs Bears; over 40.5 @1.95
Titans vs Bills; over 38.5 @1.91

 

[ribbybruno]

Fired at the Rams today +1.5 for 1 Unit

 

[Risto234]

Finally got my NFL freebet and made this bet ... (Rams over line)

 

[Synopsis]

Looks good, but I would have bought the hook there. It's amazing how often it ends on the other side when the line is in between 2 key numbers, especially since they moved pta's back.

Finally got my NFL freebet and made this bet ... (Rams over line)

 

[Synopsis]

I'm going to take the rams also. Losing to a bad team, then playing a good team the next game has always been a good formula. Seattle has a soft secondary and goff should be able to come back from his 4 turnovers last week and have a good game. Seattle has gone to a power run game in recent years, and it did bash the rams in the last 2 games between these teams, but the rams won both of those games. I expect them to run it a lot because the rams are starting a undrafted free agent at linebacker due to injury. I'd except the rams to anticipate that and compensate with a lot of cover 2 hard flats out of the 3-4 with Donald forcing them left or right into a de and 2 lbs. I would hope the rams get more aggressive on offense also because they should expect less possessions due to Seattle's clock eating. My concerns here are how slow the rams start. They need a early score with what should be the first possession of the game since they are away to be able to dictate the pace more than recently. I'm all over the 1st td multi @+127. Too much value to pass. If that over keeps getting bet up, I'll be on the under due to the slow tempo of seattle. I don't expect that line to move anymore though.

 

[Aremaz95]

Rams is the best bet for tonight

 

[Synopsis]

2-0 today, but I gotta say that these reviews and challenges are getting out of hand. I felt like half that game was one or the other. Super dumb play on third for the Rams at the end there also with no time outs, making their kicker not have his routine or anything.

 

[Risto234]

Looks good, but I would have bought the hook there. It's amazing how often it ends on the other side when the line is in between 2 key numbers, especially since they moved pta's back.

Well it's always great to bet on some american sport and then on the first thing in morning to see your bet won

 

[riverokker]

Cowboys to beat Packers. Cowboys play great at home. Let's go Cowboys. 26-20 .

 

[PokerSki]

For Week 5 I think the following 5 NFL Teams will win


Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans
Los Angeles Chargers

 

[ribbybruno]

NFL Betting Thread Results Week 5 Thursday

Thursday (1-0) +100/ +1.0 Unit Overall (9-19) -11.90 Units/-$1190


Thursday Recap - Rams toughen up and cover (1-0)

Sunday -

Raiders (+5.5) vs Chicago in London - Taking Raiders with Trubisky out - maybe a good under

NY Giants (+5) @ Home vs Minnesota - see what Jones does vs a legit D

Bucs/Saints OVER 45.5 - last year scored 88 in this spot

Green Bay (+3.5) @ Dallas - Rodgers (4-0) at AT&T Arlington

(Monday) SF (-5) @ Home Vs Cleveland - Garrappolo shines here

Good luck! Enjoy the weekend!

1 Unit each - $100

 

[imhighhommie]

Sunday Funday:

Houston -4
Oakland +5.5
Denver +6
GB +3

Looks like I missed the hook on the GB game, still seem fine.
Ribby is on two of the games I'm on so the misery will be shared at least.
Might get a taste of Oakland money line, I feel like they win the game by a FG in London.
Feels like Houstons offense will be unstoppable at home vs ATL, stacking them in DFS also.
Best of luck this Sunday everyone, should be a fun one.

 

[Synopsis]

First half against Atlanta has been money all year. With a line that small, that probably would have been the better bet. Atlanta have outscored everyone they have played in the second half. If it's a close game or Atlanta is up at half, I'd buy out of it.

You gotta buy that hook on Oakland man, that's a key number to get to 6.

Good luck this week. I'm not on much, not yet anyway.

Sunday Funday:

Houston -4
Oakland +5.5
Denver +6
GB +3

Looks like I missed the hook on the GB game, still seem fine.
Ribby is on two of the games I'm on so the misery will be shared at least.
Might get a taste of Oakland money line, I feel like they win the game by a FG in London.
Feels like Houstons offense will be unstoppable at home vs ATL, stacking them in DFS also.
Best of luck this Sunday everyone, should be a fun one.