NBA betting thread 2019/2020

ribbybruno

ribbybruno

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Spurs +4
Spurs are on a bad run, but bad runs don't last forever. Orlando is dead last or close to it in almost every offensive catagory. While the spurs have dropped 3 in a row, they have put up points, and I think that outweighs Orlando playing decent defensively. I just don't think Orland will be able to keep up, and if it's close at the end and the spur choke, like they have recently, the 4 points should be good. I like the money line on this one, but until the spurs snap their skid, I'll take the points in case it comes down to the wire and they choke.

That Timberwolves under looks good at 238. It's a lot of points. Both teams would have to average 30 points per quarter. It very well could happen, but I think the under hits on this more often than the over. I consider this to be almost risk free because a big line like that tends to stay toward that number even if they got off to a fast start, so the buy out possibility is higher than a average game. The wizards are hit or miss. They barely get 100, or they get 140 the majority of their games, and it would be easy to see which version they have by about 6 minutes or so into the game. Like I said, almost risk free to take a stab at it. They played before and they scored 240 that game, but around 10 of those points were trash points because the wolves were killing them by 30+. The wolves scored 131 of those points.

Spurs are 2-8 ATS and Magic are 3-6-1 ATS. I thought that also against Minnesota. The Spurs got trounced. Now, the Magic did just beat Philly. The question is will they play flaky or tenacious? This game will be a sweat in my opinion.

Washington and Minnesota are giving up 236 a game avg. between them. 240 is a big number. I will stay away from this game.
 
ribbybruno

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Thursday (1-0) +$100/ +1.0 Units Overall (25-22-2) +$80 / +.80 Units

Recap - Atlanta/Phoenix cruise to 240 points (1-0)


Friday -

Houston (-5) @ Home vs Indiana - 3 guards are out for Indy - not good vs Harden and Westbrook

1 Unit each - $100
 
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Looking at this Laker/Sacramento game - not sure if AD is out or not - no info yet
Walton returns to LA to face his old team.
 
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I agree, but with pops as the coach and just better talent in general, the plus points seems logical. They have to shake off the funk at some point and this looks like a prime time.

Washington and minny give up points for sure, but my reasoning on it is what I said up there, it's not a "free" bet exactly, but a really low risk one. If they both put up 40 in the first quarter, that line barely moves, while if they both put up 25 or so, that line will plummet. At either of those points you could buy out if you're not feeling it, and in the second case you could buy out and probably have like 8-10 points of difference to be able to win both the under, and the over buy out. That's why I like it, low risk. I'm betting it again also, it's at 242.5 right now.

I'm on Houston as well, that line wasn't out last night, same with the lakers, which I haven't bet because looks like people see juicing the kings. If it drops to 9, I'll be on it regardless if ad is out or not.

Leaning toward the jazz also, would like to see that fall to a flat 7. Maybe tease with Boston and he lakers if the lines don't move in my favor.
Spurs are 2-8 ATS and Magic are 3-6-1 ATS. I thought that also against Minnesota. The Spurs got trounced. Now, the Magic did just beat Philly. The question is will they play flaky or tenacious? This game will be a sweat in my opinion.

Washington and Minnesota are giving up 236 a game avg. between them. 240 is a big number. I will stay away from this game.
 
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Boston line is down to 6.5. I'm going to buy the hook here and play Boston -6.

I'm going to play Utah -7 also. I think they got embarrassed defensively against Brooklyn and they will be extra tough on that end of the floor here. The grizz don't defend 3s very well, and Utah has some sharpshooters. This game should get out of hand.

Waiting on the lakers, I wish I had stayed up a little later for this line to come out because apparently it was 8 to open.

I'm considering the over in the Lakers game. 215 seems alright considering LA are averaging over 120, if that stays a trend, then they can hold the kings to 95 and it still be ok.
 
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Going to get a little college action tonight.
Alabama -1
Alabama has been good defensively, and Rhode Island have not been efficient on offense. That seems like a good recipe to me.

Pitt +3
No idea why this line is climbing. Wvu gave up a ton of points to Akron in their only game of the season. Pitt have 3 games under their belts, and had a nice opening win over fsu. Pitt at home with the points in this spot seem favorable. Maybe the Akron game was a fluke and they come out and destroy pitt, but they will have to prove it to me.

Tease. Michigan -15, duke -20, Kansas -18. I'm experimenting on a system I am working on, and these 3 games meet all the criteria to it.
 
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Duke only up 2, at home... to Georgia state. You'd have to imagine that a complete as kicking get will come second half. You figure they would have to begin with considering going eat evensville did to Kentucky. Duke might cover the second half twice over.
 
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Spurs +5 second half. I suppose they think Orlando is going to make a run. Spurs have led by 8 to 12 for almost the whole first half.
 
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Houston -2 second half
At home in a close game, I'd lay 2 here almost everytime.

Been a disastrous day so far. Managed to buy out of some things, but Pitt for example were in a 1 point game at the half, and have gotten blown out in the second half, and it happened so quickly that there was no option to bail. They haven't made a run either to give a momentum line. They just bombed, nothing could be done about it.
 
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Going to try Boston -3 first half. I just like the play, Boston are playing games well and golden state are depleted.

Also going to tease Boston -0.5 and the Lakers -3.5
 
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Lakers live -1.5
They are down double digits, but seem to be getting it in order. Boston however also went down double digits, and they can't hit a shot to save their lives... I'm having one of those nights, worst one of the year so far for me, but it's salvageable if I can get some decent lines live. Going to be a day in the red most likely, I'd just like to make it as small a loss as possible. Not going to chase though, if nothing comes up, I'll leave it be.
 
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Getting on Boston and Lakers second half, -4 and -6

Boston was down 17 yet are leading at half. If they just keep a little of that momentum, they should win by double digits. Same with the Lakers, they have came back from double digits twice already (which is bad really, considering they were down then got within 2, then went down double digits again. I'm betting that side heavy though because they have been ridiculously good in second halfs.
 
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I'm buying out of both of these late games. 4 minutes left in both of them, Lakers with a small lead and Boston is tied. I'm having a bad day and I'd much rather just lose .4 units here than to let it ride.

Ok, let's tally it up. Went 2-1 on the spurs. Was the only lucky time I had today because the spurs hit a meaningless 3 as time expired that made the full game cover, which I had bought out of with the half. Houston was good, won full game and second half on them. The unders in the wolves game I bought out mid 1st quarter like I said I would above. Was worth a stab at it, but it was clear they would be scoring after watching half at quarter. Alabama I got out of, luckily they made multiple runs in the second half which let me get out. Won duke second half, lost the teaser with them. Lost pitt, wasn't a spot to get out there safely. Same with the jazz, I could have got out but I was occupied with other games when they made their run, I think they actually went up at one point. Got out of the Boston and Lakers, both had easy lines to buy out of. I did win the live bet though from the first quarter on the lakers. So 6-4, which doesn't look bad at all considering, but the buy outs cost me enough to call it a full loss, so 6-5 is more accurate. Wasn't worth the time invested, or that dreaded feeling you get when nothing is going right. I really need to just chill on basketball for a week or 2. Even though I said it would be a bad few weeks because it's unpredictable week 2 to 4, I've still bet games for minimal profit. Not enough to make it worth while considering the stress and time invested in research.

Edit... oh nice! Boston second half pushed when I was adding this all up, it was in my buy out, so that's almost like winning a bet. At least the night ended with a positive surprise. That neutralizes the juice from the buy outs.
 
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Friday (1-0) +$100/ +1.0 Units Overall (26-22-2) +$180 / +1.80 Units

Recap - Rockets finish strong and win by 8 (1-0)


Saturday -

Atlanta (+10.5) @ LA Clippers - the stats between both these teams closer than the line indicates - should be a good show

1 Unit each - $100

The other games I barely gave them much thought except the Indiana vs Bucks match up. The same question I had yesterday. Will the short supply of guards do in Pacers? +6.5 maybe Bucks crush?
 
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Im on the bucks line, I got the hook on it. Is Kawhi playing? Him and George together, just in defensive terms, should shackle atlanta. I'll pass though. I like houston, seems like their type of game, pace wise. The over on that game is 6 lower than the wolves game last night, that's interesting, but I'll pass.
 
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2-0 tonight. Looks like the Clippers are indeed handling business, at least right now, so maybe I should have bet it, but I do like just a bet or 2 a day on the nba until it settles a bit more. Maybe I'll look at the second half on it.
 
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Boston -2
Boston are pretty consistent, and the kings arent. Not going to look deeper into it than that.

That's probably all I'll play, unless the Denver lines drops overnight to 5. If the Lakers line dropped to 10 or so I'd maybe be interested. Seems like a bad spot for the hawks. Lakers had a poor game in front of their home crowd last game, I expect them to make that crowd happier in this game, not laying 13+ points on it though.
 
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On November 17th I think the following 4 teams will win


Celtics
Magic
Denver
Lakers
 
ribbybruno

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Saturday (0-1) -$110/ -1.10 Units Overall (26-23-2) +$70 / +.70 Units

Recap - Clippers explode on the scoreboard with 3 30 point quarters and 1 40 point quarter. wow! no Kwahi Leonard as well makes this more astonishing (0-1)


Sunday -

Sacramento (+3) @ Home vs Boston - Kings give up 109 a game - Celtics give up 106 - going with the dog

1 Unit - $100



Kind of favor the Lakers -13.5 but see them starting slow and not covering

wishy washy on Memphis still not confident
 
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Lakers over 115 Hawks have given up 120 or more in 5 straight games. Lakers at home after a poor offensive outing. I like them to score here.
 
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Denver su second half, and over 101. I shouldn't do either of these probably, as Denver has such a big lead I could see them playing slow ball, but the lines are too low to ignore for me.
 
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Bet grizz+21.5 live. Nuggets emptied the bench early than expected, so I bailed.
Edit... meant I bailed on the Nuggets su Second half. I didn't specify that very well.
 
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2-1 with a buy out tonight.
Lakers got me a little worried about covering the 115. Had 69 after the first half, but started slow in both the 3rd and 4th. They managed 122 though.
 
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safe money bucks today against the bulls ml maybe a knicks bet
 
ribbybruno

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Sunday (1-0) +$100/ +1.0 Units Overall (27-23-2) +$170 / +1.70 Units

Recap - Kings win by 1 in a great tussle with Celtics (1-0)


Monday -

Boston (+3.5) @ Phoenix - Suns have been off for past 3 days on a 16 day homestand - see a slow start - maybe a good under - Celtics showed grit yesterday in Sacramento

1 Unit - $100


The other games I kind of like both sides - the spreads are so close - when I flim flam on games going back and forth I will drop it - for instance, Clippers and OKC tonight - first time these 2 teams have met since blockbuster trade - the spread is LA -10 @ home - Thunder a double digit dog after winning by double digits last game - George returns - Clippers score 150 last game - Leonard may return? - feel a back door cover is possible
 
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