Estonian Football Corner (betting tips)

RedGnom

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just found out this blog that's why I am posting here to be linked from now forth
 
RedGnom

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also just discovered that Estonia Premium League has started while ago; in particular, it will be interesting to follow this thread from beginning.
Good luck!
 
Risto234

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So european qualifiers start on thursday and in the same day there's this game(which is probably most intresting one):

Northern ireland - Estonia

Northern Ireland starts these qualifiers with 2 homegames against Estonia and Belarus so unless they screw something up then they'd have 6p in the bag before visiting Tallinn in june. It's the first official game between these teams since EURO2012 qualifiers where we won both matches (4:1 at home and 2:1 on the road) but i guess it's (sadly) safe to say that neither team isn't the same like 8 years ago ...

However since our last h2h game Northern Ireland have played 18 official games at home(W8D4L6) - they scored in 15 of them but managed to keep just 7 clean sheets. I'd say that luckily for them we are still quite bad away from home cause since our 2:1 win in Belfast we've played 19 competive awaygames(W3D4L12) - apart from these wins which were to nil we've managed to keep just 3 more clean sheets - all in games which ended goalless and during these 19 games we actually failed to score in 13 so no surprise there and what's even worse is that in EURO16 qualifiers we didn't score single goal in awaygames(even against San Marino) so definitely it can't get any worse ...

Like in our typical (away)game i expect that we are going to play in formation 5-4-1, have basically 9 men behind the ball while playing for goalless draw and once that plan has backfired we suddenly forgot that we'd actually take more risks while trying to get something from the game..

* right now i'm waiting whether one of our local bookies comes out with their usual offer during Estonia NT (away)game where you can put 3€ on Estonia to score over 0.5 goals with special odds @5
If they dont do it for whatever reason then i'm probably going to bet against us while taking N. Ireland -1 AH @1.93
So let's see. Perhaps i'm actually going with both these bets ... :)
 
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Risto234

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Well as N. Ireland AH odds have started to drop i guess i don't wait anymore whether my local bookie comea out their special offer or not ... Therefore here 2 bets for this game(i guess there's no chance at all that they both lose):

5€: Northern Ireland -1 AH @1.80
4.45€: Estonia to score over 0.5 goals @2.38
 
Risto234

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Swedish cruise is over and now i can finally say that our team is still quite **** but at least Northern Ireland did their job so current BR is 499€ and considering our tuesday's opponent Gibraltar probably gets even worse result tonight then let's see on what i'm betting on that game. Hopefully odds for Gibraltar - Estonia come out today/tomorrow so i'd have chance for a closer look ;)
 
Risto234

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International friendly:
Gibraltar - Estonia
20:45 CET
4€ on Estonia over 2.0 goals @2.08

Both teams lost their first qualifier to nil so it's quite obvious to suggest both teams are trying to get positive result from this match.. I guess we'll see atleast some rotation by either team here but this shouldn't change too much cause we're anyway going to dominate the game etc and clearly we're not good in it so we probably struggle against weaker team yet again.. In previous qualifying campaign we won both h2h games 4:0 and 6:0 - it'd be nice to see another freescoring game but should we manage to score just once then even this isn't too big surprise. Anyway we've scored in all 4 h2h games so far so i expect us to find the net this time aswell and hopefully we don't settle for 1 goal here and try to score more than Ireland ...
 
Risto234

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As for tuesday's game then i don't blame myself for being (way) too optimistic. Anyway let's move on as we'll have plenty of games in the next teams cause Meistriliiga teams are fortunate to play 3 matches in 7-day period.

Therefore on saturday in Meistriliiga:
Trans - Kalju
15:00 CET
5€ on Kalju -1 AH @1.90

I'd say that neither team is particularly too happy with how they started the new season - Trans may be one of the 2 teams yet to concede after 2 games but just like their opponents then they have also dropped already points at home against weaker team.. And it don't get any easier for them - after hosting defending champions on saturday then they'll have another difficult homegame on wednesday when they're hosting Levadia.. Kalju meanwhile have lost more games this season than they managed last year but i guess defending the title is usually difficult in any domestic league.. Still after opening week's disappointment they won 5:0 in the second game just before international break. Despite the fact that for our usual topclubs Kalju-Flora-Levadia trips to east-estonia have always been difficult i expect Kalju to be fully focused here specially as they haven't won first h2h awaygame of the season in Narva since 2014... So unlike in the past few years i expect them this time to actually win first h2h awaygame of the season against Trans..
 
Risto234

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Well on saturday Kalju showed exactly why our top clubs usually struggle in Narva as they dropped points yet again. So let's see what they can(or can't) do tomorrow.. Surely they aren't going to let me down for the second time in less than 5 days or ...


On tuesday in Meistriliiga:
Kalju - Flora
18:30 CET
5€ on over 2.5 goals @2

I'm pretty sure that defending champions probably even didn't expect that start to the season will be this hard - they've won 1, drew 1 and lost 1 of the first 3 leaguegames.. And what's more intresting is that they seem to score in every second game cause so far they've scored 0,5,0 goals so tomorrow they'd find the net yet again.. At the same time Flora have won all 3 leaguegames so far but unlike Kalju then they've yet to play against stronger teams.. However for Flora recent h2h games haven't been succesful as they're winless in 5 h2h leaguegames despite scoring in most recent 3.. Obviously both teams have enough firepower to turn this match into highscoring one so hopefully we'll see open game here from one end to another where both teams actually try to attack instead of keeping it clear at the back... I'm probably going to watch this game aswell so hopefully it'll be good match actually..
 
Risto234

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So current bankroll is now 495€
Final score: Kalju - Flora 0:3
However it was so close cause the game stayed goalless for 80 minutes..
 
Risto234

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On wednesday in Meistriliiga:

Trans - Levadia

18:30 CET

5€ on under 3 goals @2.21

Trans is the only team after 3 matches who have yet to concede but they have also failed to score in both homegames.. Levadia meanwhile have won all 3 games so far while conceding just once but they've only played with weaker teams as they now face first real test of the season.. As both teams have been quite good in defense so far this season then i assume that we don't see open game here cause both teams are probably trying to avoid making stupid mistakes etc and therefore focus on keeping it clear at the back and then trying to figure out how to score 1-2 decisive goals...

* obviously for the sake of the game i don't mind seeing highscoring match here but considering how hard it's playing in Narva for our top clubs then perhaps Trans can actually defend well enough here to make sure that their third homegame this season will be lowscoring one yet again.
 
Risto234

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On wednesday in Meistriliiga:

Trans - Levadia

18:30 CET

5€ on under 3 goals @2.21


Levadia won 2:1 so refund is also decent option i guess.
 
Risto234

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Today in Meistriliiga:
Tammeka - Levadia
12:00 CET
5€ on Levadia -1.5 @1.80

Tammeka scored 2+ goals in first 2 leaguegames but have gone backwards since then cause they lost previous 2 leaguegames 1:4 and 0:3 ... At the same time Levadia have won all 4 leaguegames this season while scoring 16 and conceding just 2 goals - although they've scored 5 and 8 goals in both homegames then on the road they haven't destroyed hosts yet as they won 1:0 in Kuressaare and 2:1 in Narva.. Tammeka can usually cause serious problems to top teams(specially at home) so i expect them to make it hard for the visitors this time aswell. Considering this game starts 13:00 local time and it basically takes 3h to get there then i assume it might affect Levadia in someway if they started their bus trip this morning rather than in previous day and therefore spending the night in hotel like they usually do ahead of some early awaygames(like any true top club). However i still expect them to get another win here and unlike wins in Narva and Kuressaare then hopefully today they can win by 2 or more goals
 
bablovod

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I make a lot of bets on football and hockey, but recently they do not work, it seems that the selected team, specially dragging me into the swamp. I can't find the right criteria. I put a small Express, and be sure 1 team will do everything possible to bet not played.
 
Risto234

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I make a lot of bets on football and hockey, but recently they do not work, it seems that the selected team, specially dragging me into the swamp. I can't find the right criteria. I put a small Express, and be sure 1 team will do everything possible to bet not played.


It's okay to lose sometimes. Losing streak doesn't last forever though(neither does winning one) but when your bet loses it's still NOT end of the world as you're probably going to make even more bets ...

As for me then my tonight's bet on Levadia lost cause they won by one goal so yeah i'm moving forward now cause there's 3 Esiliiga games tomorrow so i can make new bets(as soon as odds come out) :cool:
 
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Today in Esiliiga:
Kalev II - Legion
18:00 CET
5€ on under 4 goals @1.85

Both teams have been quite good so far this season cause Kalev have won 3 of the 4 games while Legion who were just promoted to Esiliiga this season. Also while none of the Kalev games went 4 goals then 2 of the Legion matches did and both these games were on the road for them as they scored 4 in both these awaygames... However i'm still using familiar line this time aswell: "whenever under 4 odds are that good you just have to hope that for once both teams are worldclass in defending and amateurs in attacking" so who knows how this goes. Luckily this game which will be played in extreme weather conditions(for april) is streamed live at soccernet.ee so i can actually see whether my bet works out/fails miserably :)
 
Risto234

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Obviously with under 4 there's this thing that whether they are (absolutely) brilliant or way off the mark(specially when we see hockey score) - bankroll may have decreased to 485.- but that do not stop me from making new several bets this weekend. Therefore here are 2 tips for saturday:


Kalev - Maardu
12:00 CET
5€ on Maardu AH0 @2.01 in 1xbet

This is obviously perfect chance for either team to collect points. Kalev have lost all 5 leaguegames this season and they havent scored since first match of the season.. Still their last 3 defeats were just 0:2 so they weren't humiliated either. Meanwhile Maardu may have conceded 19 goals in games vs Levadia-Kalju-Flora which is clearly too much but in other games against Tammeka and Kuressaare they got 4p which is probably quite decent result. Despite conceding in each of the last 5 h2h games Maardu still won 4 during that time so i expect them to NOT lose this time aswell.


And 3 hours later ...


Trans - Flora
15:00 CET
5€ on Flora -1 AH @1.90 in 1xbet

Trans have lost just 1 of the 5 games so far this season but they have also won just 1 ... At the same time Flora have won all of the 5 games. Both teams have also been good defensively as they both have kept 4 clean sheets this season with Trans conceding just twice and Flora once ... Trans have already showed that in Narva they can make decent perfomance against our top clubs so although Flora probably faces another difficult game then they really should be capable of NOT dropping points here just like Kalju did and actually return to Tallinn with 3p like Levadia managed to do ...
 
Risto234

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Well last weekend Flora did their job by giving another refund as they won 1:0 while Maardu showed that they are probably capable of taking points and scoring goals only against teams who aren't from Tallinn as they lost 0:2 to Kalev who had lost all 5 previous games ... So for this weekend i'm trying different approach with going for 1 game and making 3 bets.

Sunday in Meistriliiga:
Paide - Levadia
14:00 CET

10€ on J. Budnik to score @1.80 - Betsafe
10€ on Levadia -1 AH @1.85 - Marathonbet
10€ on both teams NOT to score @2.52 - 1xbet

Betsafe is the only bookie who is offering player to score and to be booked odds from this season so i'm probably using them even more during the season... Levadia's striker J. Budnik is the only player who have scored in all 6 leaguegames and so it's probably no surprise that he's current topscorer with 8 goals. Obviously even he can't score forever but still as he's also taking care of penalties this season perhaps he can actually score yet again before facing first 2 real opponents this season cause after this match Levadia is going to play against Flora and Kalju in the league...
Levadia may have won all 6 games so far this season but they havent been that impressive defensively as they've kept just 2 clean sheets and have conceded in each of the last 3 games so as their next leaguegames are against Flora and Kalju then it's definitely about time to make solid defensive perfomance.
Obviously Paide will be making it hard for the visitors cause they've actually shown that they can actually defend cause they've conceded just one goal so far this season and have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets. Therefore Levadia probably finds it difficult once again on the road specially as their previous 3 awaywins this season were by 1 goal but despite that i still expect them to get seventh win of the season.
 
RedGnom

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Well last weekend Flora did their job by giving another refund as they won 1:0 while Maardu showed that they are probably capable of taking points and scoring goals only against teams who aren't from Tallinn as they lost 0:2 to Kalev who had lost all 5 previous games ... So for this weekend i'm trying different approach with going for 1 game and making 3 bets.

Sunday in Meistriliiga:
Paide - Levadia
14:00 CET

10€ on J. Budnik to score @1.80 - Betsafe


Betsafe is the only bookie who is offering player to score and to be booked odds from this season so i'm probably using them even more during the season... Levadia's striker J. Budnik is the only player who have scored in all 6 leaguegames and so it's probably no surprise that he's current topscorer with 8 goals. Obviously even he can't score forever but still as he's also taking care of penalties this season perhaps he can actually score yet again before facing first 2 real opponents this season cause after this match Levadia is going to play against Flora and Kalju in the league...
Evgeniy Budnik is Ukrainian player. Currently, he is showing good performance scoring in every game. This round he will do it again! Good luck!
 
Risto234

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Evgeniy Budnik is Ukrainian player. Currently, he is showing good performance scoring in every game. This round he will do it again! Good luck!


Jevgeni Budnik had just 2 chances this game with just 1 of them on target but he still continued scoring :cool:

Anyway Levadia also won 2:0 so all 3 bets won and current BR is 511.70€ :)
 
Risto234

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Today in estonian cup QF:
Kalju - Tammeka
18:00 CET
5€ on Tammeka over 0.5 goals @1.83 (1xbet)
5€ on Tammeka DC @4.33 (bet365)


I guess it's safe to say that neither team haven't found their rhythm yet as Tammeka have lost 5 consecutive matches since getting 4p from first 2 leaguegames.. However defending champions have been even worse(although they did score twice in each of the last 3 games) as after seven games they are already 10p behind the leaders ... Both teams also met just 9 days ago and then Kalju won 2:0 but still compared to that game eventhough Tammeka is going to play defensively yet again i (sadly) doubt that they can keep hosts away from scoring for 90(or 120) minutes so they probably need to score here if they want to get something from this game so they definitely need to be more clinical etc than in previous h2h game... Kalju have also conceded 2+ goals in 3 of the 4 homegames this season which is clearly too much.


Obviously Kalju might get an easy win here(with another clean sheet) but perhaps they struggle again and this match goes all the way to penalties ...
 
Risto234

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Today in estonian cup QF:
Kalju - Tammeka
18:00 CET
5€ on Tammeka over 0.5 goals @1.83 (1xbet)
5€ on Tammeka DC @4.33 (bet365)


Tammeka played well enough to force extra time as it was goalless after 90 minutes but they still lost 1:2 thanks to 119th min goal so as neutral it's quite shame that penalty shootout was so close yet so far ... BR is now 528.35€
 
Risto234

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Today in estonian cup QF:

Paide - Levadia

18:00 CET

5€ on Levadia -1 AH @2.06 in Marathonbet

Both teams just met on sunday when Levadia won 2:0 so we probably see similar game this time aswell(but hopefully much cleaner one cause on sunday ref handed out 10+ yellows and 2 red cards in the second half) where Paide defends well enough to make it (extremely) difficult for visitors but i still expect Levadia to move to the next round. Levadia is going to dominate this game etc and although it definitely isn't going to be easy them i just hope that they can actually get things done in 90 minutes and therefore avoid extra time.
 
Risto234

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Today in Esiliiga:
Tammeka II - Welco
18:00 CET
3.35€ on both teams NOT to score @3.26 in 1xbet

Neither team haven't started new season too well as Tammeka have won just 1 and lost 6 of the 7 games so far incl most recent 5 while Welco have lost 5 of the 7 games. So far this season 4 games for hosts and 6 for visitors saw both to score but still although both teams have won 5 of the last 11 h2h games then 8 of them saw just one team finding the net so perhaps both teams don't score this time aswell ...
 
Risto234

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Today in Esiliiga:
Tammeka II - Welco
18:00 CET
3.35€ on both teams NOT to score @3.26 in 1xbet


Hosts won 3:0 so it's another win as current bankroll is 530.92€
 
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