Estonian Football Corner (betting tips)

[Risto234]

One more bet for today's Estonia vs finland game.

Over 2 goals @2.30

Yes we are playing defensively and probably use 5-4-1 or similar formation this time aswell ... But still we are missing our 2-3 first choice CB's so Finland's T. Pukki who have scored twice in NL and 5 in Championship this season clearly fancies his chances to score more. And we now have striker in dutch second league who has scored 5 in 8 games or so so hopefully our goalscoring drough will end tonight. Usually you don't see that kind of odds for over 2 line so i guess it's definitely worth a try.

 

[Risto234]

One more bet for today's Estonia vs Finland game.

Over 2 goals @2.30
Estonia +0.5 AH & over 1.0 goals

Well it's just one of these days where everything goes wrong. Obviously you defend well for 90 minutes and then fall asleep in the first added minute and that's it as T. Pukki leads Finland to their third consecutive 1:0 win ... Oh well then. Atleast Hungary game on monday gives chance to bounce back ...

 

[Risto234]

On monday in Nations League:

Estonia vs Hungary

Under 2 goals @1.90

I'm pretty sure that both teams'd have hoped to start this competion with much better results than they actually managed ...
Hungary did beat Greece at home but they lost both awaygames 0:1
Estonia have gone even further in terms of losing 0:1 as they've lost all 3 NL games with that score ...
Hungary may have scored 5 in most recent h2h game but just like their only trip to Tallinn showed then here it's never easy for anyone.
I'm sure that both teams will try to get back on winning ways but they probably do that by shutting the defense down and somehow scoring 1 or 2 goals ..
So i expect another typical monday night football here - lowscoring one.

 

[Risto234]

On monday in Nations League:

Estonia vs Hungary

Under 2 goals @1.90

Negatives of the game:
Bet lost
Smallest attendance i've ever seen in Estonia homegame(in the last 4 years)
Our defense is still awful.
Positives:
We didn't lose
We scored individually same amount of goals vs Hungary what Finland and Greece managed to do together.
Hungary is shit because they scored 3 against us but still didn't win.

 

[Risto234]

Today in Esiliiga:

Levadia II - Kalju II

18:00 CET

Under 4 goals @2


Levadia hosts Kalju in the Esiliiga on thursday. Levadia youngsters who are currently third in the league have lost just 1 of the last 5 matches as they've won 2 in a row. Levadia youngsters have scored 2+ goals in each of the last 4 games but they conceded in those matches aswell ... At the same time Kalju youngsters who are still rockbottom in the league have won just 1 of the last 5 games as they've lost 2 games in a row to nil. Although are winless in 3 matches then their defense was quite decent during that time because in these 3 games they didn't conceded more than one goal per game. With under 4 you have to hope that for once teams don't score that much like they have done usually and/or in previous games so let's see. So far this season teams have met 3 times with both sides winning once. Also these h2h games saw 2, 2 and 3 goals in it. So i hope that both teams will make sure that we'll have another lowscoring match in wet conditions.

Also if anyone'd be intrested to watch how this bet works out(or fails miserably) then you can do it here(with estonian commentary):
https://m.soccernet.ee/artikkel/tan...iga-kullasoosikute-duubelvoistkonnad-lahingus

 

[Risto234]

I guess it seems that under 4 we have similar situation where in one week this works nicely and in the following week miserably and then repeats that way probably until the last week of the season :Wonder:



On sunday in Meistriliiga:

Kalju - Tammeka

14:00 CET

Kalju -2 AH @1.81

Kalju is still unbeaten in the league but they've drawn last 2 games so it's about time for them to start winning unless they want to make title challenge way more intresting. They've also won 13 of the 15 home leaguegames so far this season and in 9 of them they won by 2+ goals. Tammeka meanwhile have won just 6 of the 17 awaygames with losing 9 incl most recent 4. Although they've lost nearly half awaygames then in just 4 they lost by 2 or more goals so they can defend obviously. I'd say that this season Kalju have struggled against Tammeka even more than against direct titlerivals because all 3 h2h games basically stayed under 2 goals and in each of these games Kalju scored their only goal between 75-90+ min so they probably find it difficult to break down Tammeka' organized defense once more.

Considering under 3.5 goals is below 1.70 i might easily regret not taking unders if for the 4th time this season these teams go to half time with goalless draw ... So let's see about that but i still believe in Kalju for once getting that (very) early goal which might help them to get comfortable win(by 2+ goals) for the first(and last) time this season against Tammeka.

 

[Risto234]

On sunday in Meistriliiga:

Kalju - Tammeka

14:00 CET

Kalju -2 AH @1.81

Oh well then. Tammeka held leagueleaders to 2:2 draw. But whatever let's move on now

 

[Risto234]

LIVEBET
Estonia U17 - Georgia U17
Georgia DnB @2.18

Our team may have gone to the half-time with a 1:0 lead but i use that kind of bet to test how "good" our national teams really are. So hopefully Estonia sucks
Also second half starts in like few minutes or so ...

 

[Risto234]

LIVEBET
Estonia U17 - Georgia U17
Georgia DnB @2.18

Although this bet lost as there were no goals in the second half betting against Estonia etc is still probably quite profitable in long term. And if not earlier then in about 2 weeks time i have another chance or 2 to make exactly that

 

[jekas1k]

And we have another refund as Kalju won 1:0(just like true champion)

 

[Risto234]

On thursday in Nations League:

Hungary - Estonia

Hungary -1 AH @1.70
Estonia under 0.5 goals @1.75

Both teams have been quite bad so far in this calendar year as they both have won just 1 of the last 8 matches in 2018 with Hungary losing other 5 and Estonia 6 games ... Since we last met in Hungary back in 2014 wc qualifiers Hungary have played 13 official homegames from which they won 8 and lost 3. During that time they kept just 6 clean sheets while scoring in 10 matches while we have played 12 awaygames and (no surprise there!) in 10 of them failed to score as we won 1 and lost 8 of these 12 awaygames. Still during these 12 awaygames we managed to keep 3 clean sheets which came against these strong teams such as San Marino, Greece and Cyprus as all these matches ended goalless.

As player to score odds came out today then i watched which hungarians have value to score again against us ... From that list first 3 players scored in their previous game vs Estonia while last player scored winning goal in Hungary's previous homegame so perhaps atleast someone from thag list can find the net this time aswell (or even all of them)

Szalai @2.10
Dzsudzsak @2.75
D. Nagy @4
Kleinheisler @5

So let's see whether Estonia continues to suck or is it Hungary who is still **** if they can't beat us yet again.

 

[Risto234]

On thursday in Nations League:

Hungary - Estonia

Hungary -1 AH @1.70
Estonia under 0.5 goals @1.75

Possible goalscorers:

Szalai @2.10
Dzsudzsak @2.75
D. Nagy @4
Kleinheisler @5

So let's see whether Estonia continues to suck or is it Hungary who is still **** if they can't beat us yet again.

Our team is still great to bet against as we lost 0:2 so both main bets won.
However from these possible hungarians only Szalai found the net as he pretty much secured our ticket to league-D

 

[Risto234]

On sunday in Nations League

Greece - Estonia

Greece over 2.0 goals @2.36

Although they haven't done it too much recently(have scored less than 2 in each of the last 10 matches) Greece can still score goals. Meanwhile our team usually defends very well but sadly that doesn't stop us from conceding - we've conceded in each of the last 7 games.
Last time when we played in Athens we basically used formation 9-1-1 which clearly stunned Greece as the game finished 0:0 - however i doubt that we're playing with 9 defenders this time aswell although we do park the bus ...
Maybe i'm too optimistic about our team conceding 2+ goals for the third consecutive NL game while letting Greece to score atleast twice for the first(and last) time in 2018 but yeah let's see how about that.

 

[Risto234]

On sunday in Nations League

Greece - Estonia

Greece over 2.0 goals @2.36

Greece is shit or just they can only beat us in Tallinn while we take points from them in Athens. In eather case i hope that we don't have to play anyone from this group in the next european qualifiers.

 

[Risto234]

EURO 2020 qualifiers draw was yesterday and there's not much to say about this group except Germany cant avoid us anymore because after 80 years they will have to come to Tallinn ...

Group C:

Holland - Germany - Northern Ireland - Estonia - Belarus

Well honestly i' wanted group of 6 more because then there'd be 10 games to bet against us but now it is 8 ... So what to think about this group? Well in the last h2h game we drew with Holland, Germany haven't been that great recently, Belarus is probably as good(or bad) as we are and Northern Ireland lost twice against us last time when we played them in qualifiers(obviously that was irony) - on more serious note atleast we have 2 games which should bring full house(to watch superstars like typical gloryhunter) and if we can avoid finishing last in this group while scoring more than 1 goal, getting more than 1 point/1 win and conceding less than 20+ goals then it is okay i'd imagine.

Well there's 15 weeks and 3 days until our first game which is away against Northern Ireland but odds for that game are already out with hosts win being available @1.40 or so while their -1AH is @1.75 but still with 3 months to until that game then it is probably way too early to even consider betting on that game so yeah now the waiting game starts i'd imagine ...

 

[Risto234]

Tomorrow somewhere in Qatar:

Finland - Estonia

13:00 CET

X2 @2.50


Obviously both teams use this match to test new players etc and therefore result isn't probably the most important thing here although both teams would like to avoid defeat i assume.. Unlike us then Finland have already played one game here as they won 1:0 against sweden on tuesday so they probably make several changes to their squad and give other plays chance to impress while trying to break down estonian 5-men defense ...
Finland may have won last 3 h2h games to nil but i'm still sure that we can make it hard for them once again and hopefully avoid starting the year with defeat. Just like prior to our january games vs Sweden in 2016 & 2018 when both games ended 1:1 odds to us getting something from this game are ridicilous yet again so hopefully our team gets at least draw from this match ...

 

[Risto234]

Tomorrow somewhere in Qatar:

Finland - Estonia

13:00 CET

X2 @2.50

Finland - Estonia 1:2

 

[Risto234]

New leagueseason starts next week so it's probably right time to bring this thread back to life. New season comes with new ideas etc so i've decided to start the season with bankroll of 500€ while making mostly 5-10€ bets... So once season ends in november we'd see how smartest(or not) that idea was ...


Anyway Super Cup is played today so:
Kalju - Levadia
12:00 CET


I'm going to start with putting 5€ on under 2.5 goals @1.91 in Unibet.


Both sides prepared for new season in training camps in Spain and Cyprus so i guess today we'll see how useful it was for them to spend week in much warmer climate... Anyway Kalju have played Supercup twice so far but is still waiting for the first win as they lost 0:3 in 2016 and 2013 ... Meanwhile Levadia have played in this competion more regularly in recent years and they've usually done it succesfully aswell cause they won 4 of the last 5 games in this competion. However considering that previous Supercup matches have usually been highscoring ones(6 of the last 7 games went over 2.5 goals) then it's probably not the wisest thing to do to expect lowscoring game this time around. Although i'd like to see plenty of goals here then i still predict that perhaps teams dont storm into attack straight away(like headless chicken) and have more cautious approach instead making sure that they don't concede first ...

 

[Risto234]

Obviously supercup turned out as highscoring one(yet again) so that leaves with bankroll of 495€ but most importantly it looks like technical difficulties which i experienced in foreign country on friday ahead of first leaguegame of the season(where defending champions lost 0:2 at home to Paide therefore it probably was good thing that i couldn't bet on that match) are over so it's time to look forward to next game i guess.

Sunday in Meistriliiga:
Tammeka - Maardu
12:00 CET
5€ bet: Tammeka -1 AH @2.21

Tammeka is quite solid at home but still even if they do get the positive result against weaker team then usually they have to work hard to get it cause for them it's better to be that team who is parking the bus against stronger team and doing it decently with their organized defense instead of actually controlling the game etc while trying to figure out how to break down opponents very tight defense ... After dominating in Esiliiga for the last 2 seasons Maardu have finally decided to try out that topflight football ... So it's probably intresting to see how they can cope with it... Teams have met twice in the competive games so far when back in 2013 & 2015 Tammeka won both cup games 5:1 - i doubt that we'll see similar score this time aswell but i still expect hosts to start the season with win.

 

[Risto234]

Well last weekend Tammeka definitely showed why they are usually struggling against weaker teams as 95+ min penalty saved them from losing first match of the season as it finished 2:2. So let's watch today's Esiliiga game is offering.


Flora II - Levadia II
18:00 CET
5€ on under 4 goals @1.83

Both teams started the new season with a defeat so now they are trying to get first win of the season(or atleast avoid second consecutive defeat) - clearly both sides are capable of scoring goals here but still basically story is the same like last year - whenever under 4 is available with decent odds you pretty much have to hope that for once both teams are better in defending than they are in attacking. I know that this match starts like in 45 minutes or so but i just waited until lineups are revealed to see whether they get any help from the first team... Answer to that is no and yeah sorry for getting this up so late. Anyway we'd see intresting game here so let's see how this goes

 

[Risto234]

Flora II - Levadia II
18:00 CET
5€ on under 4 goals @1.83

It is always great to try under 4 as Flora youngsters won 3:0.
Current bankroll is 494.15€

 

[Risto234]

LIVEBET:
Kuressaare - Levadia
10€ on first half over 0.5 goals @1.53

 

[Risto234]

LIVEBET:
Kuressaare - Levadia
10€ on first half over 0.5 goals @1.53

Well that was obvious one... Kure hoped to get penalty when their striker was pushed to the ground by Levadia defender but referee didn't do anything and basically 60 seconds later we have same situation in other side of the pitch as after slight touch Levadia striker falls and earns penalty and ofcourse they convert it so Levadia goes to half time with 1:0 lead

Current bankroll: 499.45€

 

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga:

Paide - Flora

12:00 CET

4.45€ on Flora -1 AH @2.01

Both teams started the season with 2:0 wins last weekend so they are trying to get another positive result this time aswell. Paide showed in the opening game of the season that they can play well against stronger teams and i assume that now at home they're trying to make another decent perfomance. Flora is definitely going to dominate the game and they'll get another difficult match i guess(otherwise could it be like walk in the park of them then my AH bet should win quite comfortably) - still teams have met 40 times in the league with Flora losing just once and winning 35 games. Usually in estonian league you don't see that eventual favourite' -1AH odds are so good in awaygame against weaker team.. I believe last season there were just 1 similar situation which i saw soon enough before odds dropped dramatically. Anyway i expect Flora to get 3p from this game.

 

[Risto234]

Today in Meistriliiga:

Paide - Flora

12:00 CET

4.45€ on Flora -1 AH @2.01

Refund as Flora goes to international break after winning 1:0 in Paide