Should I be folding on the flop re-raise? I opted to call, but what is my best option after all is said and done?
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
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SB: $35.42 (141.7 bb)
BB: $23.96 (95.8 bb)
MP: $21.17 (84.7 bb) vp/pf/ag%/ag/3b : 33/25/36%/1.9/5.0% (81 hands)
Hero (CO): $72.52 (290.1 bb) vp/pf/ag%/ag/3b : 19/16/30%/1.8/6.5% (82 hands)
BTN: $25.98 (103.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with J
K
MP raises to $0.75,
Hero raises to $2.20, 3 folds, MP calls $1.45
Flop: ($4.75) K
4
6
(2 players)
MP checks,
Hero bets $2.25,
MP raises to $5.50, Hero calls $3.25
Turn: ($15.75) Q
(2 players)
MP bets $7
Hero??
NH. These are some tough spots for a couple of reasons. Your opponent is playing too many hands and his aggression isn't quite clear yet. It doesn't look like he's too aggressive, but you don't know for sure yet. I'd classify him as a bad LAG with likely poor post flop skills, since he's also not fully loaded. The AF won't normalize here yet, and the hand count isn't a lot. But he's aggressive enough to make some plays probably.
It's such a dry board, it doesn't make a ton of sense for him to check min raise. A check min raise with pretty much any hand is horrible here. So the decision in these spots really is about the player interpretation. The play he's making here is dumb and bad unless he's looking for a cheap bluff. He looks like he might be bad enough to make this play with a value hand, but it's unclear. He might also be bad enough to make this play with TT-QQ because he doesn't know what to do, or even KT, which I would say is still in his range. He'll also be 4-betting AK x% of the time. So being out kicked really comes mostly down to KQ.
If you just call on the flop, you're going to be stuck on the turn if he bets. You'll pretty much have to fold unless you hit a K or J. So your options are:
A) Fold on the flop to the min raise. Pretty weak considering you have top pair with decent kicker.
B) Call, and see what he does on the turn.
C) Re-raise.
Some people might be surprised but I'm not a fan of A here based on the opponent. I'd lean more towards B or C. And in this case, I'd probably lean towards B since I don't think my opponent is aggro enough to push me off hands. His turn bet is super weak though. You just called a flop check raise. So his hand gets super polarized here imho to near nuts or weak hand that was clicking buttons on the flop and now doesn't know what to do when called.
I also don't mind C with a small re-raise on these kinds of boards against more aggressive opponents. Simply because you're in such a weird spot on the turn with 100BB stacks. I think when it's not in real time, it's very easy to say, call, keep his air in and then shove over on the turn if you think you're ahead. But in real time, when you're multi-tabling and trying to figure out what kind of opponent his is, sometimes a small re-raise in position will let you know 100% where you are. My dreaded info raise. lol It's really for value though and so that you don't get stuck on the turn.
So I think you played it fine if you folded the turn, but I'm super suspicious about that bet sizing. It's really polarized, but for me, just looking at his stats and not seeing his play overall, I wouldn't have enough info to say, yes, we're likely still ahead.
6
(2 players)
