All UFC Thread

[underdog140]

That is where we differ. 700K PPV Buys is a success in my book. There will always be something that will come up that makes this next card the biggest. It could be the return of someone. A significant numbered event (UFC 100 / 200 ) First event in said place. Champ vs. Champ .... its all just a marketing ploy by UFC to get more PPV buys.

Agreed Conor is the only one to add a certain type of PPV value atm and I addressed that in my previous post. .

UFC 205. For any fan of WMMA it would be hard to ask for better. Championship fight + Tate vs. Pennington .. and Liz Carmouche vs an undefeated fighter. The card is full with names. Edgar / Rashad / Alves / Cerrone to name a few. And it isn't even finalized yet.

It's not going to attracted the guy that buys the one off PPV event once or twice a year because Conor is fighting or because he is a fan of a WWE guy fighting on the card. But I don't exactly consider them to be casual fans of MMA. They are more fans of a certain person then they are the sport.

 

[Rincewind]

700k is huge in the normal course of events but for their first event in MSG, its a massive failure, considering that they are making the conscious decision to leave their #1 marquee superstar off the card, pretty much denying the majority of fans the fight they want to see. This card should be doing one million buys easy, but it wont as it stands.

And for what reason? Just to prove a point? They're shooting themselves in the foot.

Let Mcgregor fight Alvarez for the title and get 1.2m plus PPV buys, then make McGregor defend against Aldo or relinquish his belt. If McGregor beats Alvarez in MSG, feed him to Khabib sometime next year and Khabib wins the LW title then all is right with the world and the UFC have three 1m buy PPV shows. McGregor probably comes out of it with no title to his name but I'm sure he wont mind!!

McGregor makes 10-15 million from from 2 or 3 fights and Aldo/Alvarez/Khabib make about 2 or 3 million each. The UFC makes 100+ million.

 

[OzExorcist]

Dana will be fine, Conor can't headline every event. All the same logic can be placed on a number of fighters. If G.S.P. headlined the PPV does much better. Ronda , Brock , Jon Jones .. even throwing CM Punk on the card will up the PPV buys.

As I mentioned in another post. All the other top draws aren't fighting for different reasons. It's not just Conor that can be put on the show and it do substantially better. He is just the only option at the moment. I doubt the article mentions that. But IMO it's something that is note worthy on this topic.

Looking at the fights that are listed on the UFC website for UFC 205. ... I don't see the problem with this card. I Think we all just got spoiled by the big events recently. Brock coming back. The drama of Conor being pulled from UFC 200. Nate beating Conor then the rematch. The card isn't even finalized yet and looks darn good if you ask me. I won't be missing this one.

Le sigh. Of course you didn't read it...

The article specifically mentions there's a real chance that McGregor, Rousey and GSP all headline a PPV before the end of the year, and that each could pull a million or more buys. There's only three PPV headline spots left for the year though, and 205 is clearly the one where it makes the most sense to use McGregor (GSP in canada for 206 should be a slam dunk, Rousey wouldn't be ready until 207).

At this stage of his career, McGregor is good for three fights per year, but the UFC won't have him forever - he's in his prime right now, both athletically and as a draw. They need to make hay while the sun is shining. If they don't use him on 205 they maybe use him on 207 instead, and put Rousey off until later, but doing that is just leaving money on the table. Have McGregor fight at 205, GSP at 206, Rousey if she's available at 207 and then you're into early 2017 with McGregor probably ready to fight again soon. Why let 205 just be an "average" card when you can make it a big one? McGregor fighting on 205 is undeniably +EV for the UFC.

FWIW, CM Punk was worth around 125,000 and 225,000 extra buys on UFC 203 (http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/9/1...bers-bring-up-tough-questions-about-cm-punks). That's good, but it's not McGregor/Rousey 700k+ extra buys good. Brock will almost certainly never fight in the UFC again after the drug test failure (I'll be surprised if he even bothers defending it). Jon Jones draws reasonably well, but not Rousey or McGregor well.

From a hardcore fan's perspective I have zero problems with the 205 card either. And of course the core fan base that tunes in for every UFC card will be watching - that's why an "average" UFC PPV still does 250-300k buys, not the garbage numbers that Bellator got when they tried PPV.

Whether or not core fans like you (and I) "won't be missing this one" is completely irrelevant though. We're already baked into that 250-300k average buys figure. It's whether the casual follower tunes in that makes the difference - and the fights on the 205 card right now won't do much for the casual observers.

I find it hard to imagine this doing more than 700k PPV's unless they add someone to the card that can bring in some interest. Even with Woodley/Thompson added to the card it will still be pretty underwhelming for what should be one of the top 5 biggest cards EVER for the UFC.

FWIW 700k is more than double what Dave Meltzer predicts the 205 card will do in its current shape, and he's infinitely better qualified to judge that than anyone here. The 250-300k figure I've been quoting is his specific prediction for sales of the UFC205 card as it stands right now.

I agree with Underdog, in the normal course of things 700k is a pretty successful PPV. That's "Jon Jones with an interesting opponent" or "late-period Silva / GSP" numbers, not to be sneezed at. I just don't think it's a number that's likely to be applied to this card - per all the expert analysis quoted previously, they either put Conor in the headlining spot and do 1m+, or they leave it as is and do 300k-ish.

 

[underdog140]

There are lots of scenarios where Conor makes 10-15 million in 2 or 3 fights and others make a few million and the UFC makes 10 fold more. The one you posted is just one way.

Why put Conor on a card that is going to have attention attached to it regardless. Card looks good enough and isn't finalized yet. It's the first event at MSG. It will sell regardless of if Conor is on it or not.

Let me put it this way. Conor can't headline every card. If he doesn't headline this one. He will head line one in the very near future. First event at MSG is going to garner interest regardless of if Conor is on it or not. So why not save him for an event that don't have that same interest attached to it and have two above average successful events ?

 

[Rincewind]

FWIW 700k is more than double what Dave Meltzer predicts the 205 card will do in its current shape, and he's infinitely better qualified to judge that than anyone here. The 250-300k figure I've been quoting is his specific prediction for sales of the UFC205 card as it stands right now.

I agree with Underdog, in the normal course of things 700k is a pretty successful PPV. That's "Jon Jones with an interesting opponent" or "late-period Silva / GSP" numbers, not to be sneezed at. I just don't think it's a number that's likely to be applied to this card - per all the expert analysis quoted previously, they either put Conor in the headlining spot and do 1m+, or they leave it as is and do 300k-ish.

I agree with your entire post but with reference to this, I'm shocked.

Perhaps I may be being very generous when I say 700k buys. Dave Meltzer doesn't get it wrong very often to be fair to him.

300k would be a disaster for the UFC. And very embarrassing to boot.

 

[Rincewind]

There are lots of scenarios where Conor makes 10-15 million in 2 or 3 fights and others make a few million and the UFC makes 10 fold more. The one you posted is just one way.

Yup but there aint too many ways for Khabib/Alvarez/Aldo to make good money with out McGregor.

Why put Conor on a card that is going to have attention attached to it regardless.

Attention doesn't translate to PPV buys unfortunately

Let me put it this way. Conor can't headline every card. If he doesn't headline this one. He will head line one in the very near future. First event at MSG is going to garner interest regardless of if Conor is on it or not. So why not save him for an event that don't have that same interest attached to it and have two above average successful events ?

Seriously, and be honest now. From a commercial point of view, do you seriously believe this event will be a success as it stands right now? Bearing in mind that success is (rightly or wrongly) based on revenue.

 

[underdog140]

Le sigh. Of course you didn't read it...

The article specifically mentions there's a real chance that McGregor, Rousey and GSP all headline a PPV before the end of the year, and that each could pull a million or more buys. There's only three PPV headline spots left for the year though, and 205 is clearly the one where it makes the most sense to use McGregor (GSP in Canada for 206 should be a slam dunk, Rousey wouldn't be ready until 207).

I didn't read it. I will have a look but I am still doubtful it mentions the point I was making.

At this stage of his career, McGregor is good for three fights per year, but the UFC won't have him forever - he's in his prime right now, both athletically and as a draw. They need to make hay while the sun is shining. If they don't use him on 205 they maybe use him on 207 instead, and put Rousey off until later, but doing that is just leaving money on the table. Have McGregor fight at 205, GSP at 206, Rousey if she's available at 207 and then you're into early 2017 with McGregor probably ready to fight again soon. Why let 205 just be an "average" card when you can make it a big one? McGregor fighting on 205 is undeniably +EV for the UFC.

Rousey might not even be back until next year / GSP might not be either. That is all guess work. McGregor is in his prime and he certainly is willing to fight three times a year. Why waste one of those times on a card that is going to sell above average anyways.

Of course it is +EV to have Conor on the card its + EV to have him on every card but it just isn't possible. Why put him on a card that already has interest around it ? UFC stands to gain more in having an above average card ( which I predict the UFC 205 will be ) and a Conor card on top of that in the near future. Why combined the two and lose out on over all PPV buys ?

FWIW, CM Punk was worth around 125,000 and 225,000 extra buys on UFC 203 (http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/9/1...bers-bring-up-tough-questions-about-cm-punks). That's good, but it's not McGregor/Rousey 700k+ extra buys good. Brock will almost certainly never fight in the UFC again after the drug test failure (I'll be surprised if he even bothers defending it). Jon Jones draws reasonably well, but not Rousey or McGregor well.

Who knows what Brock will do. He seems to do what ever he wants to. So if he wants to, I am sure he will. But the point is McGregor isn't the only star. Other stars can close that 700K gap. McGregor is going to lose some of his control / sway once / if the other stars become active again.

From a hardcore fan's perspective I have zero problems with the 205 card either. And of course the core fan base that tunes in for every UFC card will be watching - that's why an "average" UFC PPV still does 250-300k buys, not the garbage numbers that Bellator got when they tried PPV.

Whether or not core fans like you (and I) "won't be missing this one" is completely irrelevant though. We're already baked into that 250-300k average buys figure. It's whether the casual follower tunes in that makes the difference - and the fights on the 205 card right now won't do much for the casual observers.


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I will be surprised if UFC 205 only did the average of 250-300K Buys. I am not sure what the numbers will be and it isn't finalized yet. But 300K buys seems really low to me for this card.

 

[underdog140]

Yup but there aint too many ways for Khabib/Alvarez/Aldo to make good money with out McGregor.

Considering the reports saying Conor / Alvarez was scrapped due to Alvarez asking to re-negotiate his contract and make more money for fighting Conor , it sounds like Alvarez is getting paid the same regardless of who he fights. And if UFC did that to Alvarez, I suspect Khabib gets the same treatment. Aldo might be the exception.

Plus I doubt UFC cares about who is making money other then themselves.

Attention doesn't translate to PPV buys unfortunately

Yes it does. How doesn't it ?

Seriously, and be honest now. From a commercial point of view, do you seriously believe this event will be a success as it stands right now? Bearing in mind that success is (rightly or wrongly) based on revenue.

Yes I do but my Idea of it being a success might be different then yours. If this card only does the average PPV Buys I will happily admit I miss-judged and was wrong.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Why put Conor on a card that is going to have attention attached to it regardless. Card looks good enough and isn't finalized yet. It's the first event at MSG. It will sell regardless of if Conor is on it or not.

You put Conor on this card and he does the morning talk show circuit and your exposure to the person who has never brought a UFC fight in their life goes way up. Is the Today show going to sit down with Woodley or Joanna? Doubtful, but Conor might be a different story.

Stick him on 206 or 207 and you miss your chance at all that NYC media exposure that could be worth more even than all the extra PPV buys.

 

[underdog140]

It will get Media. It will get attention. It doesn't need Conor. He isn't going to be the deciding factor on if a string of talk-shows want to feature MMA. It being the first event is reason enough for them want to discuss and invite someone to join the show ( if they want to discuss it at all ).

I am not saying it wouldn't do better with Conor, it would. It just isn't needed. He can't headline every event. He just fought at UFC 202. There are going to be plenty of average and sub par events. Conor can't headline them all.

 

[WVHillbilly]

It will get Media. It will get attention. It doesn't need Conor. He isn't going to be the deciding factor on if a string of talk-shows want to feature MMA. It being the first event is reason enough for them want to discuss and invite someone to join the show ( if they want to discuss it at all ).

I am not saying it wouldn't do better with Conor, it would. It just isn't needed. He can't headline every event. He just fought at UFC 202. There are going to be plenty of average and sub par events. Conor can't headline them all.

Of course not, but he CAN headline 205. The UFC's very 1st trip to NY. He should be lined up to ring the closing bell on Wall Street. He should do the talk shows (early and late). He should be everywhere promoting this event. You only get one shot at the 1st time and to leave your only available superstar off this card seemingly for no other reason than so Dana can prove he can do what he wants is stupid. Conor is their only option right now that moves the needle ratings wise enough for the main stream media to even care that MMA is coming to NY. If Rhonda were ready she'd be an even better choice but she's not, so it's Conor or a wasted opportunity. Without him they might as well just be in Vegas.

 

[Rincewind]

Considering the reports saying Conor / Alvarez was scrapped due to Alvarez asking to re-negotiate his contract and make more money for fighting Conor , it sounds like Alvarez is getting paid the same regardless of who he fights. And if UFC did that to Alvarez, I suspect Khabib gets the same treatment.

Alvarez would have gotten a lot more money fighting McGregor than he gets fighting Khabib or anyone else and you know it. Alvarez/Khabib probably wont even be a numbered PPV event now. His problem, it seems, was he pushed for too much more than they were willing to give.

Yes it does. How doesn't it ?

Simple really. The attention surrounding this event is almost exclusively linked to McGregor/Alvarez. This fight is not happening, and McGregor is not on the card, ergo the attention will not translate to a proportional amount of PPV buys!!

The occasion itself and the quality fights that are on the card have been completely overshadowed by the fights that aren't happening. And the PPV buyers will avoid it accordingly.

Bit sad really when we consider how historic this event will be. As it is they may as well have had it in Vegas. Or even Jersey.

Yes I do but my Idea of it being a success might be different then yours. If this card only does the average PPV Buys I will happily admit I miss-judged and was wrong.

This card should be one of the highest grossing ever. It probably will do more than average of course but it will do nowhere near what it should be getting. Of course, Dana (and no doubt you as well) will hail it as a resounding success if it gets more than 500k buys. Reality though will be a different story.

 

[Rincewind]

Guy i train with occasionally that also trains in SBG told me just a few minutes ago that the word going round SBG is that Conor is in New York right now!!

Isn't there a big press conference there tomorrow for 205??

Here's hoping UFC have come to their senses. My money is on McGregor/Aldo 2 being announced tomorrow.

 

[OzExorcist]

Considering the reports saying Conor / Alvarez was scrapped due to Alvarez asking to re-negotiate his contract and make more money for fighting Conor , it sounds like Alvarez is getting paid the same regardless of who he fights. And if UFC did that to Alvarez, I suspect Khabib gets the same treatment. Aldo might be the exception.

Alvarez will have a standard fee in his contract for fighting like most other fighters. The exact details of UFC contracts aren't well known, but it seems pretty standard for champions (even headliners in general, maybe?) to get PPV points in addition to their show/win money. And that's where he makes more money fighting McGregor.

Aside from that, I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for more money to fight McGregor, since among other things it'd mean doing a LOT more promo work than an ordinary fight.

It will get Media. It will get attention. It doesn't need Conor. He isn't going to be the deciding factor on if a string of talk-shows want to feature MMA. It being the first event is reason enough for them want to discuss and invite someone to join the show ( if they want to discuss it at all ).

You're right in a way, Conor won't be the deciding factor on whether or not some talk shows feature someone from the UFC ahead of their first card in New York. It's news, someone will get interviewed.

But there are talk show appearances and there are talk show appearances. Having Conor on Jimmy Fallon is a hundred times more valuable than having Tyron Woodley on Conan O'Brian, for example. Do I really need to explain why?

Of course not, but he CAN headline 205. The UFC's very 1st trip to NY. He should be lined up to ring the closing bell on Wall Street. He should do the talk shows (early and late). He should be everywhere promoting this event. You only get one shot at the 1st time and to leave your only available superstar off this card seemingly for no other reason than so Dana can prove he can do what he wants is stupid. Conor is their only option right now that moves the needle ratings wise enough for the main stream media to even care that MMA is coming to NY. If Rhonda were ready she'd be an even better choice but she's not, so it's Conor or a wasted opportunity. Without him they might as well just be in Vegas.

^ this. This x 100.

 

[underdog140]

Alvarez would have gotten a lot more money fighting McGregor than he gets fighting Khabib or anyone else and you know it. Alvarez/Khabib probably wont even be a numbered PPV event now. His problem, it seems, was he pushed for too much more than they were willing to give.

Thats not how I took the information I read. From my understanding ... He asked for PPV points and more money. UFC and to be more specific Joe Silva basically laughed and said something around the lines of ... we are giving you a chance to headline vs Conor at our first ever event and you want more money. .... Then pulled him from the fight.

So it sounds like to me they wanted Alvarez to fight for the money he agreed to in his Contract.

Simple really. The attention surrounding this event is almost exclusively linked to McGregor/Alvarez. This fight is not happening, and McGregor is not on the card, ergo the attention will not translate to a proportional amount of PPV buys!!

The occasion itself and the quality fights that are on the card have been completely overshadowed by the fights that aren't happening. And the PPV buyers will avoid it accordingly.

Any attention on an event will help get eyes on it which will help with PPV buys. It is like the old saying goes. Bad press is better than no press. But the attention I was more referring to was the attention of it being the first event. Put that together with what I think is a solid card and it is going to be a successful event with or without Conor.

This card should be one of the highest grossing ever. It probably will do more than average of course but it will do nowhere near what it should be getting. Of course, Dana (and no doubt you as well) will hail it as a resounding success if it gets more than 500k buys. Reality though will be a different story.

And what would satisfy you ? It being in the top 3 .. top 5 .. top 10 ??

There wouldn't be anything wrong with 500K PPV buys. That is about double the average. What more do you want ? The card is great the way it is and there is more to come.

Guy i train with occasionally that also trains in SBG told me just a few minutes ago that the word going round SBG is that Conor is in New York right now!!

Isn't there a big press conference there tomorrow for 205??

Here's hoping UFC have come to their senses. My money is on McGregor/Aldo 2 being announced tomorrow.

There is a picture being shared to the social networks that Aldo posted last night with the caption "É hora de voltar" ( It is time to return ). Looks like he is seated at an airport.

Dana said a few days ago he wanted Aldo vs. Conor 2. Maby it is happening.

Alvarez will have a standard fee in his contract for fighting like most other fighters. The exact details of UFC contracts aren't well known, but it seems pretty standard for champions (even headliners in general, maybe?) to get PPV points in addition to their show/win money. And that's where he makes more money fighting McGregor.

Aside from that, I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for more money to fight McGregor, since among other things it'd mean doing a LOT more promo work than an ordinary fight.

Not all champions get PPV points. Alvarez certainly isn't. It was one of his demands / request to fight Conor. I think UFC wanted him to fight for his contracted amount. Being a PPV draw is what gets you those PPV Points. I believe Sonnen had them in his contract. He wasn't a champion.

I don't think it's unreasonable either but someone at UFC did. On the plus side if he defends his title and Conor defends vs Aldo ( if the fight is indeed getting made ) they will have to give Alvarez what he wants to make the fight happen.

You're right in a way, Conor won't be the deciding factor on whether or not some talk shows feature someone from the UFC ahead of their first card in New York. It's news, someone will get interviewed.

But there are talk show appearances and there are talk show appearances. Having Conor on Jimmy Fallon is a hundred times more valuable than having Tyron Woodley on Conan O'Brian, for example. Do I really need to explain why?

No you don't but imo if Jimmy Fallon was going to cover the event. He would do so regardless of if Conor was on this event or not.

I almost hope the rumors aren't true of Conor fighting on the card .. just to see what kind of PPV numbers it does. If he is hopefully its to defend his title.



In News not related to Conor:

Dana said he wants to make Jon Jones vs. Anthony Johnson for the interim belt .. winner to get a shot at Daniel Cormier.

Thoughts ? Should it be for the interim.. should Jones get an immediate shot ?

 

[WVHillbilly]

In News not related to Conor:

Dana said he wants to make Jon Jones vs. Anthony Johnson for the interim belt .. winner to get a shot at Daniel Cormier.

Thoughts ? Should it be for the interim.. should Jones get an immediate shot ?

I don't mind him fighting Johnson 1st but why would it be for an interim belt? Seems dumb?

 

[OzExorcist]

No you don't but imo if Jimmy Fallon was going to cover the event. He would do so regardless of if Conor was on this event or not.

OK. So related to that... actually two things related to that: first, Conor on Jimmy Fallon would also significantly more powerful than having Tyron Woodley on Jimmy Fallon.

But the second bit, more importantly, is I think you're completely wrong about the bit I've bolded above. Tyron Woodley most likely doesn't get booked on a show as big as Jimmy Fallon in the first place. Why? Because he's got all the charisma of a potato, and about as much name recognition. He's not good "talent".

Shows like Fallon don't book guests to do the guests a favour, they do it to increase the show's ratings.

Just picture it. If they do a promo saying "Tomorrow on the Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon... UFC welterweight champion of the world Tyron Woodley!" then the vast majority of the audience will be like "who?!?". They won't know or care who the hell he is, and it'll give them no reason to tune in.

If they do a promo saying "Tomorrow on Jimmy Fallon... UFC superstar Conor McGregor" then a decent amount of the audience will know "oh, that Irish fighter who says outrageous stuff and wears crazy outfits, he's fun!" and they watch.

You know this is true BTW, for the same reason that you know a Conor PPV sells way way more than a Woodley PPV.

In News not related to Conor:

Dana said he wants to make Jon Jones vs. Anthony Johnson for the interim belt .. winner to get a shot at Daniel Cormier.

Thoughts ? Should it be for the interim.. should Jones get an immediate shot ?

OK that's just... like Hillbilly says, that's just dumb. I mean the interim LHW belt means essentially nothing anyway.

Only way I think it makes sense is if Cormier is going to be out for an extended period. He's ruled himself out of fighting in the next few months to prep for his commentating gig, but I don't think there's been any news beyond that...

 

[Rincewind]

Common sense prevails!!!

Its official. Alvarez vs McGregor for the 155 title at MSG.

 

[OzExorcist]

LOOOOOOOOOL

So... was the past week and a bit just trolling, or did they finally come to their senses?

 

[Rincewind]

LOOOOOOOOOL

So... was the past week and a bit just trolling, or did they finally come to their senses?

There must have been a compromise reached between Alvarez and the UFC.

I'm delighted with this announcement and the prospect of the first dual weight champion in the UFC being an Irishman, but I do feel sorry Khabib in all this.

He was basically used as a stick to beat/scare Alvarez into line.

 

[OzExorcist]

I guess as "sticks" go, "do what we tell you or you'll have to fight Khabib" is a pretty persuasive one...

 

[Rincewind]

I guess as "sticks" go, "do what we tell you or you'll have to fight Khabib" is a pretty persuasive one...

Any dude that can still look scary in that silly hat is a legit badass.

 

[Rincewind]

Any significance to the fact that McG and Alvarez are both wearing their belts in the official poster?

Can we take it as a given that Conor is NOT being stripped as Dana said he would be?

This is all starting to look like Dana has been overruled. And rightly so. Will be interesting to see what kind of spin he tries to put on it later to save face.

 

[OzExorcist]

Yep, reports confirm he won't be made to drop the featherweight title before this fight: http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/9/27/13070556/conor-mcgregor-vs-eddie-alvarez-to-headline-ufc-205

 

[Rincewind]

Embarrassing for Dana, basically having to backtrack on what he said after McGregor/Diaz 2.

No doubt he will try and spin it like they made this fight for the fans and because its the fight people want but in reality he has been told whats what by his new bosses. This is his first step towards the door before he's pushed out.