All UFC Thread

[OzExorcist]

Constantly fighting and beating better competition is a valid reason. Its probably one of the more valid reasons someone could come up with in any fight as to why a certain fighter will win. Level of Competition is important.

*le sigh*

We're gonna have to agree to disagree here, but you're completely missing my point. Strength of competition is important to a degree, but it just doesn't tell us much in this case:

In particular, you can't really draw any conclusions about this fight by looking at Brown's recent history. It says that he can beat lesser fighters, usually inside the distance by TKO. Hendricks is not a lesser fighter, so Brown's record doesn't really tell us anything about how THIS fight will play out.

Hendricks has fought better quality fighters. He's beaten some of them, he's lost to others. Brown is a quality fighter. Hendricks record tells us that he might win this fight, or he might lose it.

If Brown had a mixed record against those lesser fighters then I can see how you'd have a point. It would certainly introduce some valid doubts about his skill set at this point in his career. If Hendricks had been crushing elite fighters in his recent fights then you might be able to draw some conclusions from that. But he hasn't. As a result, there's little of predictive value to be drawn from this information IMO.

 

[underdog140]

*le sigh*

We're gonna have to agree to disagree here, but you're completely missing my point. Strength of competition is important to a degree, but it just doesn't tell us much in this case:

It Looks that way.

In particular, you can't really draw any conclusions about this fight by looking at Brown's recent history. It says that he can beat lesser fighters, usually inside the distance by TKO. Hendricks is not a lesser fighter, so Brown's record doesn't really tell us anything about how THIS fight will play out.

Hendricks has fought better quality fighters. He's beaten some of them, he's lost to others. Brown is a quality fighter. Hendricks record tells us that he might win this fight, or he might lose it.

If Brown had a mixed record against those lesser fighters then I can see how you'd have a point. It would certainly introduce some valid doubts about his skill set at this point in his career. If Hendricks had been crushing elite fighters in his recent fights then you might be able to draw some conclusions from that. But he hasn't. As a result, there's little of predictive value to be drawn from this information IMO.

I understand the point you are making. I believe you are undervaluing the importance of constantly fighting the more elite fighters.

You keep saying that Hendricks lost to some elite fighters and won vs. others as if he has 50 / 50 record vs them. But his only recent loses is to the current champion and G.S.P., the best WW to ever compete in MMA. And some thought Hendricks won that match. Hendricks has wins over Robbie lawlar, Carlos Condit , Josh Koscheck , John Fitch and other tough fighters like Martin Kampamann. That is more than just winning some .. losing some. He beat the majority he has faced.

On the other hand. Matt Brown has some decent wins but has faced one elite fighter. Robbie Lawlar and lost. I don't see anyone on Matt brown fight profile that would be a favourite over Hendricks if they were to fight. Besides the current champion. I see plenty that would be a favourite over Matt Brown on Hendricks profile.

I'm not saying Matt Brown has no chance. He could very well pull off the upset. I just don't think the chances of that are very likely.

 

[martymart48]

Matt Brown

So I'm betting a unit on Roy Nelson at $2.85. Purely based on his right hand vs Overeem's chin. I mean if Ben Rothwell can knock you out...

Here's one I'm very interested in though: does anyone else think Matt Brown is being underrated as a underdog in the $3.30-$3.60 range? The vast majority of his losses have come by submission, something he doesn't really need to worry about against Johny Hendricks. He's got an outstanding chin as well as the height and reach advantage, and a style that gives him a great chance in a striking battle if this goes to the judges.

Don't get me wrong, Hendricks is obviously no joke. All he may need to do is secure a few takedowns and just lay on Brown. But is his brief run with the belt resulting in him being just a little overrated here?

Matt Brown 3.30$-3.60$ Look a Good Deal . I will bet on Matt Brown .

The only thing 100% Sure i want to see this Fight .

 

[OzExorcist]

Still haven't pulled the trigger on the Brown bet yet but he's up to $3.85 on Pinnacle now, that's starting to look seriously tempting.

Got a bet on Calra Esparza to win at $1.74 as well.

You keep saying that Hendricks lost to some elite fighters and won vs. others as if he has 50 / 50 record vs them. But his only recent loses is to the current champion and G.S.P., the best WW to ever compete in MMA. And some thought Hendricks won that match. Hendricks has wins over Robbie lawlar, Carlos Condit , Josh Koscheck , John Fitch and other tough fighters like Martin Kampamann. That is more than just winning some .. losing some. He beat the majority he has faced.

He's 1-1 against Lawler, both were close fights to be sure. He lost to GSP and again, it was close. I'm gonna go ahead and say something blasphemous here too: the GSP that beat Hendricks was not the GSP of old. IIRC he spent most of the fight dazed and complaining that he couldn't see out of one eye... and Hendricks still couldn't manage to beat him.

The Kampmann / Fitch wins say more about their chins and striking defense than they do about Hendricks skills, as they were both very fast KOs. If Brown had a bad chin and poor striking defense, those wins would worry me a lot more, but he doesn't so they don't.

Lastly the Koscheck win was only a split decision, and you'd have to be very charitable to be calling Koscheck an elite fighter at that point in his career: he was 18 months removed from his shot at the title, and he hasn't won a fight since either.

 

[underdog140]

Still haven't pulled the trigger on the Brown bet yet but he's up to $3.85 on Pinnacle now, that's starting to look seriously tempting.

Got a bet on Calra Esparza to win at $1.74 as well.



He's 1-1 against Lawler, both were close fights to be sure. He lost to GSP and again, it was close. I'm gonna go ahead and say something blasphemous here too: the GSP that beat Hendricks was not the GSP of old. IIRC he spent most of the fight dazed and complaining that he couldn't see out of one eye... and Hendricks still couldn't manage to beat him.

The Kampmann / Fitch wins say more about their chins and striking defense than they do about Hendricks skills, as they were both very fast KOs. If Brown had a bad chin and poor striking defense, those wins would worry me a lot more, but he doesn't so they don't.

Lastly the Koscheck win was only a split decision, and you'd have to be very charitable to be calling Koscheck an elite fighter at that point in his career: he was 18 months removed from his shot at the title, and he hasn't won a fight since either.

The fact is Fitch was the 2nd best WW in the UFC for a very long time. There were many others that couldn't KO him. And he would of been the champion if it wasn't for G.S.P. He was also on an impressive 15 ( ? ) fight win streak before he fought G.S.P.

I agree G.S.P. seems like he wasn't the G.S.P. of " old " in the Hendricks fight but none the less he was still G.S.P. And I would argue that even on that night there wasn't a WW that would have beaten him.

Fair points on Josh Kosheck. But Before he lost to Johnny Hendricks he beat

Mike Pierce -- tough fighter

Matt Hughes - Who most consider the second best WW ever. Although at the end of his career. Was making a come back being 3- 1 in his last 4 before fighting koscheck.

Fought for the title vs G.S.P. and Lost like most do.

Beat a very good fighter in Paul Daley.

Also Beat Anthony Johnson who is currently fighting at LHW for the UFC Title against Jon Jones. Anthony Johnson also beat current and former UFC heavy weight champion Andrei Arlovski. But all this was after he fought Koscheck. None the less it is a very impressive win.

Before that he beat Frank Trigg who at one point was also an elite fighter. Who fought G.S.P.and Hughes X 2. But this could be up for debate also. At the very least was just outside the elite.

So at the time he fought Hendricks if someone asked me if I thought Josh was an elite fighter. I would lean towards yes. The loses after the Hendricks fight I don't take into consideration to judge if he was elite when he fought Hendricks. If he lost 3 or 4 before fighting Hendricks you would have a point with that. But it was after he fought Hendricks when he went on the losing streak.

I feel like we could go back and forth on this forever so I think this will be my last post on the subject.

I enjoyed the debate and wish you the best with your bets.

 

[OzExorcist]

I'll just point out that you're using liberal doses of "MMA math" to support your argument, and leave it at that.

The same MMA math that can be used to "prove" that, say, Kimbo Slice is a better fighter than Fedor. It has little to no value as a method of predicting fights.

 

[underdog140]

Alright, you got me to respond again.

I'll just point out that you're using liberal doses of "MMA math" to support your argument, and leave it at that.

I did not. Hendricks beat fighter A who beat fighter B who beat fighter C who beat Matt Brown. Is an example of MMA math. The "math" you are seeing in my above post you quoted is to show my reasoning as to why certain fighters like Josh / Fitch are / were considered elite fighters.

You asked me for a reason to as why I thought Matt Brown was going to lose. I gave you that reason and you choose not to accept it as a reason.

Brown record is 21 - 12 according to the UFC. Other places have him at 19 - 12. Hendricks record is 16 -3 while fighting tougher and more elite fighters than Matt Brown has been facing. You can draw what ever conclusion you want from this. But If I am putting any decent amount of money on a fight, I am without a doubt looking at fighters records to see who beat the more tougher competition. And it is going to be one of the more important factors in me placing that bet. Off course its not the only thing to take into consideration.

The same MMA math that can be used to "prove" that, say, Kimbo Slice is a better fighter than Fedor. It has little to no value as a method of predicting fights.

This is the real reason I decided to reply again. I would like to see you use MMA Math to prove Kimbo Slice is better than Fedor.

 

[ChiTownRon]

Well, you can't count Brown out. Underdogs do win, too. As far as this fight goes, Hendricks should win it. Browns best chance would be to knock him out and that would be tough against Hendricks. I think eventually Hendricks gets his belt back.


Really looking forward to Jones vs Johnson and Mcgregor vs Aldo. I think Johnson will gas out if he can't knockout Jones in the first two rounds, so I'll give that fight to Jones as a lot of people would. But I think Mcgregor pulls off the win. He looked awesome in his last fight.

 

[KUN_AGUERO_KROOS]

Lol. I've just watched a video where Joe Rogan says Ronda would beat 50% of men at 135 in UFC. I knew he was a pot junkie, but that's too much. WTF

 

[ChiTownRon]

Lol. I've just watched a video where Joe Rogan says Ronda would beat 50% of men at 135 in UFC. I knew he was a pot junkie, but that's too much. WTF

What the hell does it matter if he is a pothead? Being a pothead doesn't mean you're dumb. The guy is smart as hell. Very knowledgeable in MMA since he's been following and apart of it for so long.

I take it you also don't watch UFC much either. I would agree with him that she probably could beat 50% of the men at 135. Especially the lower ranked fighters in that division. She already spars with a lot of guys in training and has no problem having the upper edge in those. Her ground game is beastly.

 

[KUN_AGUERO_KROOS]

What the hell does it matter if he is a pothead? Being a pothead doesn't mean you're dumb. The guy is smart as hell. Very knowledgeable in MMA since he's been following and apart of it for so long.

I take it you also don't watch UFC much either. I would agree with him that she probably could beat 50% of the men at 135. Especially the lower ranked fighters in that division. She already spars with a lot of guys in training and has no problem having the upper edge in those. Her ground game is beastly.

You don't have to be a doctor to know the effects of consumption of marijuana over the years. You should know that it affects memory, common sense, decision making, learning. It does damage your brain. It is pretty obvious.

I'm positive that Ronda has no chance against any men fighting the UFC. She has a chance against men without any MMA skills, even stronger men. But to think she would beat a man in UFC is just stupid.

 

[underdog140]

There is absolutely no way Ronda could beat 50% of the men at 135 in the UFC. I would be surprised if she could beat any. Men and woman are just naturally built different. With men and women of the same size. Men are just naturally stronger and have other advantages when it comes to combat sports. Could Ronda beat a 135 man who isn't in one of the top MMA orgs. in the world. Absolutely she could. But she would have a hard time finding one she could beat that was good enough to be in the UFC. Maby a couple of the lowest ranked guys but I still think it would be difficult.

There is a video around that shows Ronda wrestling with a guy her size that was still in high school. She was having difficulty with him. Imagine what a professional would do.

Lets hope No MMA org. ever puts on such fights.

 

[Dlattanzio]

rafael dos anjos vs anthony pettis

So we got Dos Anjos Vs Pettis. i think it will be an amazing fight. if Dos Anjos takes it to the ground i doubt pettis can win.

 

[ChiTownRon]

There is absolutely no way Ronda could beat 50% of the men at 135 in the UFC. I would be surprised if she could beat any. Men and woman are just naturally built different. With men and women of the same size. Men are just naturally stronger and have other advantages when it comes to combat sports. Could Ronda beat a 135 man who isn't in one of the top MMA orgs. in the world. Absolutely she could. But she would have a hard time finding one she could beat that was good enough to be in the UFC. Maby a couple of the lowest ranked guys but I still think it would be difficult.

There is a video around that shows Ronda wrestling with a guy her size that was still in high school. She was having difficulty with him. Imagine what a professional would do.

Lets hope No MMA org. ever puts on such fights.

Yeah, you said it, in highschool. Things have changed since then.

 

[OzExorcist]

The Ronda fighting men discussion is silly because there's no way a fight like that ever gets sanctioned. I do wanna acknowledge that it's really nice to have some things to talk about other than who failed what drug test though

This is the real reason I decided to reply again. I would like to see you use MMA Math to prove Kimbo Slice is better than Fedor.

All it proves is that MMA math is dumb, but here's just one of the possible "proofs" that Kimbo is better than Fedor:

Kimbo Slice beat Ray Mercer, Mercer beat Tim Sylvia, Sylvia beat Ricco Rodriguez, Rodriquez beat Tsuyoshi Kosaka, Kosaka beat Fedor Emelianenko, therefore Kimbo is better than Fedor.

There's an even longer one getting around that proves the Kimbo is also better than Randy Coutoure, BJ Penn, Vitor Belfort, Luke Rockhold, Demian Maia, Frankie Edgar, GSP, Dan Henderson and about a dozen other fighters.

I acknowledge, that's not exactly what you're doing. But it's based on the same kind of logical fallacy.

By your reasoning, for example, Jon Jones should never have beaten Shogun for the title. When they fought Jones had only really faced nobodies and couple of middle-level guys. Rua had been fighting against the elite of the division for years: Rampage, Liddell, Machida, Big Nog, Coleman. But we all know how that fight worked out for Shogun, don't we?

Same logic says TJ Dillashaw should have had no chance against a monster like Renan Barao, Chris Weidman definitely should never have beaten Anderson Silva, Frankie Edgar should never had beaten BJ Penn, and Conor McGregor should break a leg on the way to his fight with Jose Aldo to save himself any embarrassment from actually fighting the fight.

 

[underdog140]

Yeah, you said it, in highschool. Things have changed since then.

I think you miss-read my post or maby I wasn't clear. Ronda wasn't in High School at the time. She was wrestling someone that was.

 

[underdog140]

The Ronda fighting men discussion is silly because there's no way a fight like that ever gets sanctioned. I do wanna acknowledge that it's really nice to have some things to talk about other than who failed what drug test though



All it proves is that MMA math is dumb, but here's just one of the possible "proofs" that Kimbo is better than Fedor:

Kimbo Slice beat Ray Mercer, Mercer beat Tim Sylvia, Sylvia beat Ricco Rodriguez, Rodriquez beat Tsuyoshi Kosaka, Kosaka beat Fedor Emelianenko, therefore Kimbo is better than Fedor.

There's an even longer one getting around that proves the Kimbo is also better than Randy Coutoure, BJ Penn, Vitor Belfort, Luke Rockhold, Demian Maia, Frankie Edgar, GSP, Dan Henderson and about a dozen other fighters.

I acknowledge, that's not exactly what you're doing. But it's based on the same kind of logical fallacy.

By your reasoning, for example, Jon Jones should never have beaten Shogun for the title. When they fought Jones had only really faced nobodies and couple of middle-level guys. Rua had been fighting against the elite of the division for years: Rampage, Liddell, Machida, Big Nog, Coleman. But we all know how that fight worked out for Shogun, don't we?

Same logic says TJ Dillashaw should have had no chance against a monster like Renan Barao, Chris Weidman definitely should never have beaten Anderson Silva, Frankie Edgar should never had beaten BJ Penn, and Conor McGregor should break a leg on the way to his fight with Jose Aldo to save himself any embarrassment from actually fighting the fight.

MMA math is dumb. At least we can agree on that. The Ronda can beat men discussion is indeed silly.


As for your examples:

I am not saying fighting the tougher competition = A win. I am saying it is one of the more important things to look at.

Lets take a look at your examples:

Jon Jones at the time of fighting Shogun was undefeated ( I know DQ loss to Matt Hamil - no one holds that loss against him ) and beat some tough guys in Ryan Bader , Brandon Vera , Stephen Bonnar. Brown is far from being undefeated. Shogun was never the same in the UFC that he was in Pride. I dare even say that he lost to an older Mark Coleman in the rematch. But it was a close fight and the judges gave it to shogun. To me this was the point shogun started going down hill. By the time he beat Chuck Liddel. Chuck was 1 - 3 in his last 4 fights. The Rampage win was in 2005. Six years before fighting Jon Jones. The Machida fight is foggy to me but I do remember that there was controversy and fans were split on who they thought won. I picked Jon Jones to win this fight

Chris Weidman just came off two solid wins over Damian Mia and Mark Munzo and was also undefeated. Brown is not. Nothing compared to Andersons Profile of fighters. But Anderson was on top for a very long time. And is getting up there in age at this point. Someone was bound to beat him eventually. I picked Anderson in this fight.

B.J. vs Frankie was a shocker for me. Although there are allot that think B.J. won there first fight. I am not one of them and I am a B.J. Fan.

There is allot of hype around Connor. I enjoy watching him fight and look forward to the match. But Aldo just might run through him. I am not sure if this helps your argument. I guess we will find out when they fight.

Your examples show that sometimes underdogs win. And both us already knew that. If they didn't people like me and you wouldn't be allowed to place bets.

 

[OzExorcist]

Important new info has just come to light about the Hendricks-Brown fight - Brown has brand new walk-out music, written specifically for him by Jamey Jasta from Hatebreed!

http://www.metalsucks.net/2015/03/0...-immortal-written-for-ufc-fighter-matt-brown/

OMGZ!

Somehow the betting markets are unimpressed by this, and he's now out to $4.05 on Pinnacle...

 

[Suited Frenzy]

Important new info has just come to light about the Hendricks-Brown fight - Brown has brand new walk-out music, written specifically for him by Jamey Jasta from Hatebreed!

http://www.metalsucks.net/2015/03/0...-immortal-written-for-ufc-fighter-matt-brown/

OMGZ!

Somehow the betting markets are unimpressed by this, and he's now out to $4.05 on Pinnacle...

HaHa

I'm taking Brown in this fight. It's his time.

 

[underdog140]

Important new info has just come to light about the Hendricks-Brown fight - Brown has brand new walk-out music, written specifically for him by Jamey Jasta from Hatebreed!

http://www.metalsucks.net/2015/03/0...-immortal-written-for-ufc-fighter-matt-brown/

OMGZ!

Somehow the betting markets are unimpressed by this, and he's now out to $4.05 on Pinnacle...

I wonder if it will keep getting better ? I think it still might .. but have been wrong before.

Was browsing odds for fights and seen Werdum is + 415 ( UFC 188 ) vs Cain. That is crazy. I see allot of value here. I know its a ways away but I don't see that line getting any better than that. I would have guessed the line would be around + 200. Cain is a beast but hasn't fought in well over a year. Injures ect.

 

[OzExorcist]

The price on Brown has been blowing further and further out over the past week. Generally speaking prices on underdogs get crunched in close to fight time (happened for both Zingano and Pennington at the previous event) but Brown may have a ways to go yet...

I got on him last night at $3.93, if it keeps going out I might need to add another unit

 

[OzExorcist]

Was browsing odds for fights and seen Werdum is + 415 ( UFC 188 ) vs Cain. That is crazy. I see allot of value here. I know its a ways away but I don't see that line getting any better than that. I would have guessed the line would be around + 200. Cain is a beast but hasn't fought in well over a year. Injures ect.

Hard to say where that one is gonna go - there's a lot of people out there who see Cain as some kind of unbeatable monster, so it's possible they could bet him in even further.

None of my books are offering markets on that fight yet, though they're offering McGregor as a very slight dog against Aldo, and Rumble as a $3-ish dog against Jones...

 

[underdog140]

Hard to say where that one is gonna go - there's a lot of people out there who see Cain as some kind of unbeatable monster, so it's possible they could bet him in even further.

None of my books are offering markets on that fight yet, though they're offering McGregor as a very slight dog against Aldo, and Rumble as a $3-ish dog against Jones...

Yea, allot of people do view Cain like that.

At the books I am looking at. Mcgregor is + 115 and Rumble is + 230.

 

[PLAYFUL1]

women in the ufc

yah I watched the match for the championship which lasted 14 seconds, now that's fast:trytofly:

 

[OzExorcist]

Yeah, that's about what I'm getting. US odds drive me mental, decimal is so much easier...