Posted this in the cash thread but probably more important here:
I don't have any insider info that's not out there but I feel I have a pretty solid grasp of the current situation right now, or at least all the info that's out there. I have a ****ton of money at stake (I'm sure some here are glad and hope I lose it but please just smile to yourselves and don't cloud the thread with it when the issue here is the safety of the money of poker players) here and have basically spent every waking hour reading stuff/talking to people about this, including people that work for Pokerstars. I've seen some posts with some really bad misinformation searching for this post so idk if people have corrected them but here's what I know:
First off the DoJ does not usually lose, and even if the poker sites are in the right they will have a really hard time winning. It doesn't matter what you guys think is right, the way the US justice system works heavily favors the government. That said we have a chance to beat 8 out of the 9 charges against us. Unfortunately the 9th is bank fraud which carries 30 years in jail and a ton of fines. This could mean a plea or the government could choose to just say **** you to the owners and set an example of them. If they do take it to trial it will mean the courts will rule on whether online poker in the US is "unlawful internet
gambling" and thus whether the UIGEA applies to online poker or not. This would be a very good thing imo especially now that the status quo is no online poker in the US. If we lose it's not much worse than it will be anyway, and if we win (which I think we would) there is a possibility banks will start doing business with poker sites legitimately and the sites won't have to commit fraud to get money to and from you.
In my conversations with Pokerstars, they assured me not to worry and said that although they couldn't guarantee anything, they were a big international company and we will see our funds eventually. Furthermore, both Pokerstars and FTP are required by regulations in their jurisdiction to hold player money in separate accounts, which in the past has been ruled that even if it is subject to seizure by the government it gets sent to the players. If your cashout was in limbo and in a payment processor they have the right to seize it. Therefore cashing out is the worst possible thing you can try to do as a US player right now.
Yesterday no one was buying any funds at even 80c on the dollar. Today I have heard people buying/selling at 85c on the dollar. This is good news as even the people selling didn't sell their entire roll only sold some to get temporary money off but it shows that people with money (I think ~20k was sold) believe that
poker site money will end up in the
hands of the players.
For people with a lot of money online, you may wish to consider making a trip to another country. This would require a bill to an address in that other country as well as a bank account in that country. This means that you must physically be there to get a place, wait for a bill to be sent there, and then use this to open a bank account, then contact the poker site and change your country and you should be able to cashout. Stars has confirmed on 2p2 that this is possible while FTP has not commented. But I know a bunch of non-US players who have successfully cashed out from FTP and I know several people I play with everyday who used to have US locations on FTP now have foreign countries (most
canada). I don't know if that allows them to play after the update (I'm still playing because I haven't shut my client yet) or cashout, but it is a positive sign that they can change their country which they couldn't the day of the seizure, and cashouts are working for other people in those countries.
I think the only way we don't eventually see our money is if the sites go bankrupt, and although I thought this had a chance of happening early on (since I believe the DoJ is wanting to seize a total of 10 billion dollars from the 3 sites) I think that is a very low chance lately just because they've been paying out. That said I would try to keep as little online as you need if you are a non-US player and if you were in the US I would be getting all my money off if you have a chance. People who lost money in the netteller deal lost their money for up to 8 months, so if it's not enough to make it worth traveling to another country prepare to wait awhile but like I said you likely will see it eventually.
Correcting something I just saw in the general poker thread in the summary quoted by Nick, there is 0 chance you can countersue the US DoJ for anything here, whether you are a US citizen or not even if they seize all your money and online poker is not a crime in your country. It has nothing to do with online poker it has to do with the fact that the poker sites were (as claimed by the DoJ) money laundering and committing bank fraud. If you trust drug dealers with your money, even if it is legal in your country, and they are arrested in the US for dealing drugs, you have no claim to the money seized by the government. As I mentioned earlier it is very unlikely you will lose money, but I have spoken to many lawyers and they all say the idea of countersuing the DoJ on anything here is just a laughable concept.
The problem is there are very few people who both know what's going on and also are willing to talk about it. This leads to a ton of speculation and misinformation spreading around. I cannot say with 100% accuracy my post is correct but I've formed my opinion by reading 2p2 and talking to people who have law backgrounds and know a lot more about this than I do and I don't feel I said anything in this post that is even questionable at this point.
Feel free to let me know if I missed anything like I said I don't know much firsthand but I am pretty well connected in the poker world and know a lot of people personally who would know the answers to a lot of questions, which is important when the alternative seems to be random speculation.
Oh also other thing I posted in other thread forgot to include here definitely relevant but was in response to a quote in other thread. Regarding playing on sites that are still taking US players:
My roomate is playing on Cake atm. Guys think about it for a second. The DoJ has the power to go after any sites that are processing US withdrawals. They have put restraining orders on money, and any site serving US customers and allowing them to cash out are at the same risk Stars/FTP/Absolute Poker were before. This includes Bodog, UB/Absolute Poker (although if you're still playing on those sites you're retarded imo), Cake, Merge, Carbon, Lock, or any other poker site. The only reason we have a prayer of a chance of seeing our money again is because the sites are so big. Do you really think a small site is going to survive an attack by the US DoJ? Obviously up to you but seriously use your brains and realize that especially after this attack by the US DoJ it will be a very long time before any processor/legit site will want anything to do with US customers.
