F
fishinthesea
Rock Star
Silver Level
M
mottotom27
Rock Star
Silver Level
30 hands just isn't a reliable enough sample size imo. it can give a general indication but it can be misleading. so you put him on a jack? i just don't see him 3x potting river with just a jack, seems pretty polarised to nuts or air. i feel our hand is essentially just a bluffcatcher, we might as well have A high, and all the straight draws got there too so there really aren't too many bluffs he can have. see what john says anyway, i might be wrong.
Figaroo2
Legend
Bronze Level
Hehe Tom just how many hands do you need to see before you realise someone is a nutball? Not that many. The 2nd hand was the one I skyped you so no revealing the answer to hand 2.....
As regards the nutball im finding it difficult to range these players but the preflop limp and flop check lead me towards thinking there are no pocket pairs and hence no sets. I treated his flop minraise as a call and for me the hand becomes more interesting with the arrival of the 9 for me it is at this point we have to really start narrowing his ranges....
As regards the nutball im finding it difficult to range these players but the preflop limp and flop check lead me towards thinking there are no pocket pairs and hence no sets. I treated his flop minraise as a call and for me the hand becomes more interesting with the arrival of the 9 for me it is at this point we have to really start narrowing his ranges....
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R
rhombus
Legend
Silver Level
R
rhombus
Legend
Silver Level
Is this always Check call on the river
poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $12.65 (126.5 bb)
UTG: $10.50 (105 bb) 16/14/13 after 76 hands
MP: $13.05 (130.5 bb)
CO: $17.48 (174.8 bb)
BTN: $16.37 (163.7 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q
A
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) K
A
2
(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks
Turn: ($0.95) K
(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.60, CO folds, Hero calls $0.60
River: ($2.15) K
(2 players)
poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $12.65 (126.5 bb)
UTG: $10.50 (105 bb) 16/14/13 after 76 hands
MP: $13.05 (130.5 bb)
CO: $17.48 (174.8 bb)
BTN: $16.37 (163.7 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) K
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks
Turn: ($0.95) K
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.60, CO folds, Hero calls $0.60
River: ($2.15) K
M
mottotom27
Rock Star
Silver Level
if you had specific reads on the guy then yea, but not just off the stats you posted...
i don't quite understand why you assume he can't have 55 or 77 on the flop but i agree his range is wide on the flop (could have Jx, sets, two pair, random air). the 9 is kinda a good and bad card since it does give you two pair and you're now ahead of Jx and weaker two pair, but it's also bad since you could potentially lose more vs a set and 68 and 8T now got there. river i expected him to bet much smaller with a Jx type hand, so it really seems like nuts or air. but his sudden shove on the river looks pretty darn strong to me so i'd guess the nuts most of the time. could have made a backdoor flush or something
Fknife
Legend
Silver Level
+1
Minraise flop, bet turn, 3x pot river is a strong line, Fig (just saying). BUT I wouldn't be surprised if he showed up with KK+ there also (I know it's kinda weird though)
Figaroo2
Legend
Bronze Level
Is this always Check call on the river
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $12.65 (126.5 bb)
UTG: $10.50 (105 bb) 16/14/13 after 76 hands
MP: $13.05 (130.5 bb)
CO: $17.48 (174.8 bb)
BTN: $16.37 (163.7 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with QA
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) KA2(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks
Turn: ($0.95) K(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.60, CO folds, Hero calls $0.60
River: ($2.15) K(2 players)
I don't like the UTG check on the flop at all, if he has part of it why not just bet it for value or represent it with a cbet....it smacks the openers range...whiffs like pot control from QQ JJ TT.
There are so many blockers I would lean towards him having JJ TT QQ AJ AQ AK QK in that sort of order.
If you lead out I would call a bet with an ace obviously (split), raise the case K and probably fold almost everything else.
Generally I agree I don't see much worse calling here so check call is probably ok,
Maybe just maybe he calls a small river bet (50c-70c) with JJ,TT as you have checked twice he may not put you on an ace or king. (fold to any large raise)
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Figaroo2
Legend
Bronze Level
This guy has 80% VPIP and 80% aggression and open raises 20%.....the guy raises and bets for fun....for me that removes all pairs from his opening limping range, especially from this late a position.
I reckon in that case against a 60% limping range we have at least 80% equity on the flop. I ain't going anywhere here....
I also think he would lead out on the flop or reraise bigger with any pair on the flop or with the only oesd available which is 86. I largely discount 86. The only real hand to fear is I think 8T but there are so many other gutshot/pair combos on the turn that 8T is still an unlikely hand, like 12 combos from well over two hundred others.
If anything I think the 9 bringing two pair increases my equity even further.
It would have to be an awful card for me to fold the river..to any bet.... maybe a Ten would make me stop as then he just needs an 8 for a straight
The queen and the backdoor flush made me hesitate for a short period, I must admit I didn't consider any Q 2pair combos as there are a few hanging around like Q9
maybe Q5. I just didn't think a Q likely.
This was a clear call for me we beat all sorts of 1 and weaker 2 pair hands and his shove screamed go away.
Pretty much a snap call.
F
fishinthesea
Rock Star
Silver Level
I agree with you that 30 hands is not a big enough sample size, but the next time you play see if you can get your aggression % to 80+ in 30 hands(I highly don't suggest this). Pretty sure you have a nutball here. You have to think what he's trying to defend when he takes a limp, then a min check-raise line. Could very well be 46, 86, T8. I highly don't think he has a flush made by the river because he jammed. This is because if he had actually hit a flush, he would be betting smaller or pot sized because the villain wants money from a good made hand. A jam on the river is screaming "go away!!" Like I said I can't see myself folding here just based off villains HUD stats. If he has 86 or T8 then I'm most likely stacked here. Guys, just keep this mind, but it's not the size of the bet that matters in this case. He could've bet $10-$15 and it would've still achieved the same thing; put fig to a hard decision.
M
mottotom27
Rock Star
Silver Level
I really would be interested to hear John's opinion on this since i personally strongly disagree with this reasoning. Firstly 20% open raises over 30 hands. That's only 6 hands he's open raised! So i wouldn't assign him a "20% opening range" necessarily from such a small sample. Over 300 hands there is a strong possibility you'll find he may actually only be opening 10% or even less. The sample is just too small to conclude anything about his opening range and hence you cannot say "he would have raised any pocket pair preflop" since those hands are still in his calling range, and don't forget that someone's 3betting range tends to be stronger than their open raising range. The 80% VPIP is much more conclusive since it's a lot harder for such a high VPIP to be 'fluked' due to chance alone. So we know he's a fish, that's about it.
86% aggression here means 5 out of 6 opportunities he chose the aggressive option. that's probably just 6 opportunities in total. that stat needs more time to converge and could turn out to be 50% over a larger sample, (it's happened to me before where i've made the mistake of overvaluing this stat over a small sample and paid the price which is why i warn you of it now). so whilst the villain's AFq may suggest aggression, he may actually turn out to be just be a typical average or passive fish. i'd have to actually SEE him making outrageous bluffs and massive overbets to justify calling the river there.
another thing to mention is that 86% aggression doesn't take into account HOW he's being aggressive, such as lines and betsizing. he could be minbetting a lot of pots but only overbet with the nuts. he could have had a great run of cards over those 6 hands where he had an opportunity to be aggressive. The line he took here is extremely strong, and you should take that into account in your decision rather than just "he's so bad and fishy".
so you're saying villain might be "bluffing" with a weaker two pair and is trying to force you off a better two pair? or has a jack and is trying to force you off two pair? seems unlikely imo. i guess he COULD be turning a weaker pair+gutter into a bluff but without knowing enough about the player besides an inconclusive sample of stats, it's hard to tell.
maybe you can look at your database and search all the hands of this player to find out exactly HOW this guy is being aggressive. Has he been 3x potting a lot, or just minbetting? i think HUD is a great tool but i think it's dangerous to rely too much on the stats especially if the sample size isn't very big.
having said all that, i'm obviously no expert this is just my opinion of the hand so i think we should wait until John can give his professional opinion. it's an interesting hand and i think hearing John's opinion could benefit us both
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M
mottotom27
Rock Star
Silver Level
trust me i've been watching my session stats recently and there have been a few times when my aggression shows up as 80%+ over more than 30 hands. usually it's just because of a good run of cards over a small sample, but you have to remember that number of hands doesn't equal number of aggression opportunities. like in a recent session i played 1000 hands but only had 100 opportunities to be aggressive (according to PT4), so here villain probably only had 6 opportunities to be aggressive, not 30.
perhaps, but from my experience more often than not a massive river overbet is a monster hand looking to get paid off.
F
fishinthesea
Rock Star
Silver Level
Sorry, I meant to say 80% aggression with 80% vpip. He's limped 18 times, and raised 6 for a total of 24 hands played out of 30. He can also raise his aggression percentage by limping pots and then donking into pots.
M
mottotom27
Rock Star
Silver Level
i wouldn't call limping an aggressive play lol. yea it really depends on HOW he's being aggressive. but min-donking into flops raises his aggression frequency but doesn't tell you much when he 3x pots it. that's why figaroo really ought to have some specific reads on what villain's actually been up to before making such a big call.
Figaroo2
Legend
Bronze Level
My understanding is aggression % measure the % of times you bet or raise postflop. So if this villain is in 24 of the 30 hands he has bet with the lead or raised on 20 ish occasions post flop.
I agree that stats are somewhat limited but I watched this guy for 3 full circuits and am happy to call down an opponent displaying this level of aggression with me having 2 pair on that board .,this goes back to the self assessment we completed for the volume II work book. Calling down light is a skill that doesn't come easy and you have to call down when appropriate. If you never catch them bluffing you aren't calling enough .I think im good here plenty often, im very well rolled for 25nl if I think its plus ev I'llput my money out there.
I would say If you can't call down someone like this who can you call down? What aggression levels are you going to start calling down more often.
Not just that but the benefits to your table image as an action player win or lose helps you in getting paid off later.
I agree that stats are somewhat limited but I watched this guy for 3 full circuits and am happy to call down an opponent displaying this level of aggression with me having 2 pair on that board .,this goes back to the self assessment we completed for the volume II work book. Calling down light is a skill that doesn't come easy and you have to call down when appropriate. If you never catch them bluffing you aren't calling enough .I think im good here plenty often, im very well rolled for 25nl if I think its plus ev I'llput my money out there.
I would say If you can't call down someone like this who can you call down? What aggression levels are you going to start calling down more often.
Not just that but the benefits to your table image as an action player win or lose helps you in getting paid off later.
M
mottotom27
Rock Star
Silver Level
yea you're probably right about the aggression actually, well 20/24 is definitely more reliable for aggression than 5/6. i agree calling down light you must do sometimes. perhaps you are good here often enough. it was mainly villain's line and sizing that worried me. like his betsizing is quite small on flop and turn and then all of a sudden he 3x pots it on the river? it just reeks of strength, despite the opponent type. i just cannot recall too many instances in my playing experience that a massive river isn't some nutted hand (your experiences may differ). Hopefully John can help to clear things up a bit.
R
rhombus
Legend
Silver Level
AS he was tight I wanted a Cbet from him and the other player.
When it came to the River a King was definitley part of his range as well as an Ace other than that 77-QQ.
So didnt want to get shoved on and eithe lose all when he turned over quads or split and lose becasue of rake
Rest of hand was: -
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $12.65 (126.5 bb)
UTG: $10.50 (105 bb)
MP: $13.05 (130.5 bb)
CO: $17.48 (174.8 bb)
BTN: $16.37 (163.7 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) K
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks
Turn: ($0.95) K
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.60, CO folds, Hero calls $0.60
River: ($2.15) K
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10
Results: $4.35 pot ($0.20 rake)
Final Board: K
Hero showed Q
UTG showed Q
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
I'm raising the turn here. If he's a nutball, he'll go with it and plenty of worse hands. You need to maximize value since you can get more on the river if you get the pot bigger here.
Nutball type players typically will make aggressive smaller plays on earlier streets, but only over shove the top of their range. It doesn't make much sense for him to bet smaller on the turn and then over shove the river of course. It doesn't make sense based on what your range should be, and the possible hand combos that he'd CR and then shove river with unless he was doing it with something like Ad5d. Stupid to CR the flop, but he's a nutball. Outside of that, sets don't make sense, so his range is super polarized to a flush or air really. I think you need to go with your read here. I don't think a call is horrible, but outside of seeing what he's doing, I think it's very difficult for anyone to provide really good feedback.
Ahead of his range, that's fine. If he's not aggressive though, I'd just bet for value here. I don't know his aggression. 36?
C/C is fine. Way ahead of his range.
Standard here. He either has 4x/3x or air. Aggression might factor in, but considering how passive you played it, you need to widen your calling range regardless.
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Is this always Check call on the river
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $12.65 (126.5 bb)
UTG: $10.50 (105 bb) 16/14/13 after 76 hands
MP: $13.05 (130.5 bb)
CO: $17.48 (174.8 bb)
BTN: $16.37 (163.7 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with QA
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) KA2(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks
Turn: ($0.95) K(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.60, CO folds, Hero calls $0.60
River: ($2.15) K(2 players)
It depends on aggression, or if you think you can induce. Sometimes a small 1/4 or less sized bet can get mid/small pairs to call and air to bluff as opposed to just checking where that same range a lot of small/ mid pairs will check behind, and only air bluffs.
R
rhombus
Legend
Silver Level
He did have 13 AF and thought it 40/60 he had another A or K or Underpair. If I didn't bet and he overshoved, not a great proposition.
thought about small bet, but didnt want him to see it as a blocker bet and shove
Figaroo2
Legend
Bronze Level
OK result time...
J9 Nutball Hand.... Villain had T9 offsuit for a pair of 9's on the turn and shoved his pair/gutshot....it was a great feeling to stick with my read and stack this guy.....
I notice John recommends a turn raise...seen and noted... I don't think any of us even considered that.
AJ hand, villain had 69 of spades and was on a pure air float bluff.
J9 Nutball Hand.... Villain had T9 offsuit for a pair of 9's on the turn and shoved his pair/gutshot....it was a great feeling to stick with my read and stack this guy.....
I notice John recommends a turn raise...seen and noted... I don't think any of us even considered that.
AJ hand, villain had 69 of spades and was on a pure air float bluff.
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Ok, so that's absurdly high. As far as the small bet though, that's what you want him to do. You want someone aggro to spaz out and make a bad play.
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Hey guys... when you have a minute, just some opinions. Trying to explain this for people who don't know the concept well (15 min video). I'm going to post on my blog and HM's blog tomorrow assuming it's ok.
GTO play explained
GTO play explained
F
fishinthesea
Rock Star
Silver Level
Mottotom, you're missing the point. Limping is not an aggressive play, but limping, calling a raise to see a flop, AND then donking into it afterwards? This villain is obviously trying to take every pot down. Also, just to remind you, the whole point of the Hitman HUD is to player profile unknowns as quickly as possible. If any given combo of stats points a villain to a single extreme, then you can safely assume he is the player the type you label him as unless shown differently.
Fknife
Legend
Silver Level
1. Nash is a set of strategies that are maximally exploitive against each other (I don't know, maybe it's worth adding there).
2. Exploitive Optimal Play? (= Maximally Exploitive play)
3. On the second slide you wrote that: "GTO 'assumes' opponent is always countering with the perfect strategy" (??) but few minutes later you say it does not really matter if he does or does not (somewhere around Nash Shoving Charts) - although I might misinterpreted this one
I like the video. I really do