I assume everyone who is following the thread is good on the first couple of points on improving and polishing your game. If we're good, then I'll move on to next points.
Hey John, I've got a few questions about the HitMan HUD.
There are two things I miss after switching over to the Hitman HUD. First is the amount that villains fold against a steal. Do you estimate this only based on VPIP? The second one I miss is WTSD%. Did you left this one out because it takes too long for it to normalize? Also, how can you generally estimate how light is our opponent calling us down if you have no WTSD? Do you estimate that by looking at player types mostly?
Sure...
Fold to a steal, not relevant info. You can guesstimate this based on the type of player they are categorizing into. The nittier they are, the more often they are folding. If you had this stat before, it's removable.
WTSD% also is irrelevant. It takes a long time to normalize, and you'll know based on the other stats, and again, what category someone is the likelihood they they are going to showdown too much (not folding mediocre hands), or not enough.
So yes, if you follow those player types, you're going to be able to make better guesstimates about those kinds of stats. You can always add other things and modify the hud, but mostly a lot of the info people have in their huds is near useless. You want to use a small group of stats/info, and player type someone so that you can work on exploiting them. Most of the stats in players huds, you'd need 60k+ hands on someone for it to be somewhat relevant and reliable.
Hello John, I been following along only thing I don't understand is RFI what does it mean? I use total steal and fold to steal, is this the same or should I be using RFI stats. Also I've been trying to use your equity calculator, do you have videos on how to use hands from database. I have just been putting in random hands to get some numbers, which I am sure I'm missing out on a whole lot.
John your advice on this one would be appreciated Thanks.
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/15/2
I have been at a 25nk full ring table for about 50 hands. The player to my left is a bit aggro preflop. I have seen him 3bet twice against single raises and squeeze twice from the blinds. No hands get to showdown.
I have already spawned a plan to try and trap him if I get an opportunity.
He is about 125bb and I have 110. I have been playing quite a few hands as id picked up several pairs in close succession and might appear a little loose to the table.
A hand is dealt whereby it folds to the CO who raises x3. I have QQ in the SB.
So I flat expecting the BB to squeeze and he does betting 12bb ($3) over the pot of 7.5bb $1.85. Co foldss.
So what is our best raise sizing now bearing in mind we have QQ? . I intend to stack off if he rejams.
I was unsure just how to size it and actually 4 bet $8 and he flat called. It felt too big but with QQ i wanted to end it and not have to face over cards on a flop oop.
The flop came J 56 and I shoved and he called and flipped over AA. I dont mind losing to the aces but was annoyed I wasnt sure of my bet sizing.
Summary so far:
We have point #1, which is make sure you're c-betting enough in position.
#2 - Limit your cold calling out of position with trouble hands and speculative hands.
Point #3. Being Lost on the Turn.
And next....
Point #4 - Don't play without initiative.
How important is initiative in today's games? Extremely important. Several years ago, you could have a wider and more profitable cold calling range, and you could comfortably check/call a lot of spots. Not so much anymore, at least against most opponents. I'm not saying there won't be spots to cede initiative and call down against someone's range. What I'm saying is that you'll find yourself in more profitable poker situations if you are taking control of the hand as much as possible.
This might seem like an obvious point in some ways, but I still see profitable poker players struggling with it. I had a 50nl student a couple of weeks ago for example, that was struggling with this in 3-bet pots when he called. When facing the second barrel he didn't know what to do, and this is a profitable 50nl player, someone who has won at 100nl+ as well.
This single point should be clear:
You have many MORE options when you are the raiser, or the person betting the hand. Your perceived range will always be stronger than your opponents calling range. A simple point, but extremely important.
So this means you should make more definitive decisions against your opponent, and minimize/eliminate calling as much as possible. The alternative is that you're calling down against your opponents betting/raising range without really knowing what their 2nd and 3rd barreling tendencies are. Except for really extreme cases, where someone's stats are extremely high or low on one side of the scale or the other, knowing 2nd and 3rd barrel tendencies is not as cut and dry as I think players (and I'm including good mid stake+ players in here) really are. That's because you need a really large sample size on your opponents to really know this.
So what this means in practice is that against decent/good regulars in your game, you're much better off depolarizing your 3-bet range (using my quasi 3-bet range like in polished poker) instead of flat calling pre-flop. You're also much better off 4-bet/folding depolarized hands than calling. On the flop, you're better off raising a lot of marginal hands where you have some equity than calling. The previous general strategy was always, call with strong hands that are beating your opponents range, and then call down against their weaker betting range. However, this is increasingly more difficult to do against competent and aggressive opponents.
As you move up in stakes, some of this advice will change, but if you're playing 200nl or below, this will be a much less exploitative strategy long term. It will simplify the game, and make your decisions much easier and more clear.
I can provide some more examples of this, and how it relates to a whole strategy, but I'll start with this for now.
I've been trying this out lately, as I have been 4betting with hands like AJo and KJo against really aggresive regulars that 3bet a lot and have high postflop AF%. However they were calling or 5betting like 80%+, so I guess it was a bad choice of opponents, or I was just unlucky. I get the advice to raise marginal hands on the flop, but what about out of position? Check-raising our midpairs seems very spewy and I'm not a big fan of donking. Should we be calling cbets and leading turns, or are we just check-folding midpairs and such?
I also have another question regarding moving up stakes. I've been improving my game and was playing pretty good on 5NL (10bb/100 winrate on the last 20.000 hands, solid red line), and went back on 10NL, where I was crushed. This seems to happen always when I move up stakes and it's pretty dishartening. Is the play really that much better or am I playing badly when moving up?
Hand 1 is fine. Calling in position in this kind of dynamic is also ok. I'm mainly concerned with out of position play when you'll really be in tough spots post flop. But I don't mind this, the only thing is you don't really know your opponents 3-betting tendencies other than the fact he'll probably be doing it lighter when you open the button.
Hand 2 is good... 4-bet or fold against this kind of opponent.
Hand 3 is good, probably 4-bet a little larger. This guy seems pretty goofy/bad. I think a river call is slightly +EV for the odds. Think you're going to see QQ/TT and some draws here enough for this to be +EV. You're not going to see much Kx, maybe KQ based on how bad he played it.
Hand 4, not enough info on opponent (2 hands), but jam or c/call the turn.
Hand 5, 4-bet sizing needs to increase. And c/fing the turn w/o better info is fine.
You'll be surprised what people show up with.
Thanks for the input! Yeah, my range is generally pretty strong in those spots, so I guess I project this on my opponents as well.
Hi John, i think i need to get with this thread. I've DL your ebook a while back (thank you) but haven't sat down and read it yet due to life/work(!) and the fact I was reading a ton of physical poker books at the time, as well as getting involved with threads on this forum. Appreciate what you're doing here, subbing, cheers.