Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

[Figaroo2]

Yeah you need to call or fold that turn. I hope you understand why, but maybe it's better if I just ask.

Call or fold that turn? Did you write that correct?
Well after I looked back at this hand I would have preferred a fold on the turn. Mainly because I'm UTG and have been playing tight and he raises into two players not just one and he isn't that aggressive. It strongly smells like either a set or a monster draw or at worst the nut flush draw.
There really wasn't much point calling the turn bet once he fires half pot.
If he had made it 3/4 or pot I might have leaned towards him drawing and still looking for a fold but the half pot sizing screams he wants a call.

 

[John A]

Call or fold that turn? Did you write that correct?
Well after I looked back at this hand I would have preferred a fold on the turn. Mainly because I'm UTG and have been playing tight and he raises into two players not just one and he isn't that aggressive. It strongly smells like either a set or a monster draw or at worst the nut flush draw.
There really wasn't much point calling the turn bet once he fires half pot.
If he had made it 3/4 or pot I might have leaned towards him drawing and still looking for a fold but the half pot sizing screams he wants a call.

No, I meant jam or fold.

 

[John A]

Played this hand Saturday and thought it was interesting because of the large over bet.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

CO: 540.8 BB (VPIP: 54.17, PFR: 34.72, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, hands: 74)
BTN: 103 BB (VPIP: 38.78, PFR: 20.41, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 50)
SB: 112.44 BB (VPIP: 25.79, PFR: 20.53, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 60)
BB: 115.52 BB (VPIP: 24.39, PFR: 14.63, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 41)
Hero (UTG): 175.32 BB
MP: 127.28 BB (VPIP: 31.51, PFR: 25.44, 3Bet Preflop: 6.94, Hands: 74)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7:heart: 5:heart:

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) Q:club: 8:heart: 8:club:
Hero bets 4.68 BB, BTN calls 4.68 BB

Turn: (16.76 BB, 2 players) 5:club:
Hero checks, BTN bets 8.36 BB, Hero calls 8.36 BB

River: (33.48 BB, 2 players) 7:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets 86.96 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 86.96 BB

Alright, so the spoiler here is that I won this hand. But what are some reasons why I called?

 

[Figaroo2]

But what are some reasons why I called?

Well he's a bit of a 3bet monkey and pretty lose so the fact that he doesn't raise pre or on the flop excludes strong holdings on the flop, I'd also expect a player like this to raise flush draws on the flop as you aren't going to hit that flop very often. I think he raises most 8's hoping to extract from an UTG over pair or AQ.

So he flats the flop so he's still interested this deep with his back door draws. Something like a gutshot and a backdoor flush make the most sene to me, hands like JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h or a hand with a single large club like Ac X or KcX with X being a 9 or T
When you check the turn he's going to take a stab with his full range. The river 7 is a brick, the only nutted hand to get there is 96 and I don't think that calls the flop.
He's aggro so we know he's shoving air here a lot because of his passivity pre and on the flop.

Talking of overbets
Pacific, $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $30 (100 bb)
BB: $63.14 (210.5 bb)
UTG+2: $16.18 (53.9 bb)
MP1: $30 (100 bb)
MP2: $29.28 (97.6 bb)VPIP: 39, PFR: 24, 3B: 8, AF: 3.8, Hands: 79
Hero (MP3): $30.86 (102.9 bb)
CO: $43.04 (143.5 bb)
BTN: $30 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T

T

2 folds, MP2 calls $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 4 folds, MP2 calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.25) Q

6

8

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.12, MP2 raises to $3.06, Hero calls $1.94

Turn: ($8.37) 9

(2 players)
MP2 bets $25.32 and is all-in, Hero??

 

[John A]

Talking of overbets
Pacific, $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $30 (100 bb)
BB: $63.14 (210.5 bb)
UTG+2: $16.18 (53.9 bb)
MP1: $30 (100 bb)
MP2: $29.28 (97.6 bb)VPIP: 39, PFR: 24, 3B: 8, AF: 3.8, Hands: 79
Hero (MP3): $30.86 (102.9 bb)
CO: $43.04 (143.5 bb)
BTN: $30 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T

T

2 folds, MP2 calls $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 4 folds, MP2 calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.25) Q

6

8

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.12, MP2 raises to $3.06, Hero calls $1.94

Turn: ($8.37) 9

(2 players)
MP2 bets $25.32 and is all-in, Hero??

So how many hands do you have on this guy and how long have you been playing against him this session roughly? He has to know he's playing very loose and aggressive for FR, and that you know this as well.

I'd lean towards a fold, because even though he's loose enough to still have a lot of flush draws in his range here, I'd assume he's trying to exploit his image at this point with a top heavy range hoping you'll stack off w/ Qx or worse.

But this has to be part of your read here. Do you think he understands and is capable of exploiting his image or not. If not, then call.

 

[John A]

As far as the over bet call.. I did a video on it yesterday here:

http://www.acepokersolutions.com/poker-blog/pokerhands/calling-massive-river-bet-cash-game/

 

[John A]

I'll post up a few hands from the wsop $2.5k event. No flow in this tournament for me. Here's one spot.

Not a ton of interesting hands. I had some really clear/easy double barrel w/ air spots. Nothing ubber interesting. I had one spot where I folded QQ pre. But this is an example of why I need to play more live tourneys.

I open Tc9d from the HJ. Folds to the BB who calls. We've been in a lot of pots together at this point. This guy, the chip leader and myself were the most active at the table.

This hand happened after the 2nd break.

Flop comes: 9h 6h 3s. He checks, I check.
Wait what? I had a really good read on him. He was one of the better players at the table, but I had confidence he'd making too many mistakes if I checked top pair here even though my hand is vulnerable.

Turn: Ks. He bets a little over half, and I call.

River: Jc. Het bets a little over 2/3rds pot. I call. He says, " you got it." I show and he says, "you were supposed to fold that hand." And I say, "I know, I was hoping that's what you were thinking."

Any ways, that's a pretty good example of bad HS tourney play where the mentality becomes, "I can't win here, only thing I can do is bet and pray." Which I see a lot. I mean in a cash game against a decent player, I fold that river.

Why? Because wtf hand am I checking on that flop, calling that turn, and then folding to a river bet? There shouldn't be any. Mayyyybe 6x, but I think I bet that too often on the flop. And if I call that turn w/ 6x, I'm still likely calling that river.

 

[John A]

Another hand from the $2.5k no-limit WSOP event this past week. Blinds were 150/300 w/ 50 ante and I had a stack of about 12k. Villain covers.

Same villain as above. He opens from the lojack, and I call in the BB w/ ATo. I check the flop in the dark and it comes:

Ax 9h 3s (rainbow). He bets 1/3rd the pot and I call.

Turn is Th. I bet into him ~ 1/2 pot, he raises and I call. I could arguably 3-bet here of course, but I wanted to take a lower variance line when I knew for sure he'd bluff the river if he missed /it bricked.

River is 3d. I check, he thinks a long time and checks behind and eventually mucks. I thought for sure he was going to bluff here, and he was giving it a lot of thought, but then conceded. Meh...

 

[Figaroo2]

Didn't you tell us recently that people play the river more conservative in tournaments. And if you have already picked him off with 3rd pair I'd reckon he's much less likely to try bluffing YOU again especially when you showed him you were a thinking player with the chat rather than just an ordinary garden variety station.
To raise your turn lead I'd put him on some sort of broadway hearts hand KJ or QJ, maybe 87, which picked up a flush draw and a gutshot/oesd but whiffed and he knows he's unlikely to shift anyone, let alone you off a highly likely top pair ace hand here.

 

[John A]

Didn't you tell us recently that people play the river more conservative in tournaments. And if you have already picked him off with 3rd pair I'd reckon he's much less likely to try bluffing YOU again especially when you showed him you were a thinking player with the chat rather than just an ordinary garden variety station.
To raise your turn lead I'd put him on some sort of broadway hearts hand KJ or QJ, maybe 87, which picked up a flush draw and a gutshot/oesd but whiffed and he knows he's unlikely to shift anyone, let alone you off a highly likely top pair ace hand here.

In general this is true. He was a more aggressive thinking player. But yeah, I mean my hand range is weak here, so I think he of course thinks he can get me off a weak ace or 9x. I don't mind his play, but I'm not going to go nuts on the turn either unless I'm 100% sure in an MTT. If I 3-bet, he would probably even fold T9 for example and only call sets and A9, fold his air and maybe even his draw unless it's a combo draw.

 

[Figaroo2]

line check.

Pacific, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

SB: $6.93 (69.3 bb)
BB: $11.66 (116.6 bb)
UTG+1: $10.29 (102.9 bb)VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.4, Hands: 730
UTG+2: $9.42 (94.2 bb)
MP1: $10.36 (103.6 bb)
MP2: $10.94 (109.4 bb)
Hero (MP3): $12.25 (122.5 bb)
CO: $3.14 (31.4 bb) VPIP: 34, PFR: 3, 3B: 4, AF: 2.6, Hands: 153
BTN: $3.85 (38.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7

7

UTG+1 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.05) T

5

7

(3 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, CO calls $0.70

Turn: ($3.15) 2

(3 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.15, Hero calls $2.15, CO calls $2.14 and is all-in

River: ($9.59) 8

(3 players, 1 is all-in)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+1 calls $3

Results: $15.59 pot ($0.77 rake)

I'm wondering if raising the flop is better? But that might push out the fish. Then should we bet bigger on the end repping a busted flush draw? Perhaps hoping for a call from an overpair, I don't know why I bet so small..
I'll post the hands later.

 

[John A]

I'm really confused on this hand, what happened? Calling he flop w/ CO behind you is fine. Once he only calls, it's a little tricky because a turn raise looks strong once he bets 2/3rds. But generally speaking, as long as CO is at all aggressive I prefer a flop flat (which looks like he is).

So a turn flat since CO is all-in at that point is fine as well. But why aren't you shoving river? You should be shoving river all day. 6 isn't in either of your ranges and the flush draw whiffed.

 

[John A]

Anyone who has some party poker S&G HH's if you can PM and send me some I'd greatly appreciate it. Having a hard time locating some but need some for testing.

 

[Figaroo2]

I'm really confused on this hand, what happened? why aren't you shoving river? You should be shoving river all day. 6 isn't in either of your ranges and the flush draw whiffed.

I felt like the early position player didn't have much when he checked the river, certainly not QQ or better. If he had an over pair I'd still expect him to bet/fold the river hoping I'm going to have 10x maybe JJ here. So if he doesn't have the over pair he has over cards with or without hearts or maybe 10x or some sort or pair/draw combo around the 10 7. So I bet small to try and get the a call off this weaker range. I couldn't see a hand that would call a shove that checks the river from a decent reg like this.
UTG had 9h 8h
CO had A 10.

 

[John A]

I felt like the early position player didn't have much when he checked the river, certainly not QQ or better. If he had an over pair I'd still expect him to bet/fold the river hoping I'm going to have 10x maybe JJ here. So if he doesn't have the over pair he has over cards with or without hearts or maybe 10x or some sort or pair/draw combo around the 10 7. So I bet small to try and get the a call off this weaker range. I couldn't see a hand that would call a shove that checks the river from a decent reg like this.
UTG had 9h 8h
CO had A 10.

He should be checking most of his range on the river because so many draws missed, maybe minus TT. But 2 pairs, over pairs etc... should be check calling in a MW pot when all of those draws whiff. There's way more combos of those hands that will bluff that run out than will call a value bet on the end.

 

[Figaroo2]

how can be play this better?

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Hero (SB): $34.98 (139.9 bb)
BB: $20.15 (80.6 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb)
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
MP3: $12.14 (48.6 bb)
CO: $24.37 (97.5 bb)VPIP: 15, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 3.3, Hands: 821
BTN: $24.28 (97.1 bb)VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 8, AF: 2.2, Hands: 261

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q

Q

2 folds, MP3 calls $0.25, CO raises to $1.25, BTN calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 9

8

T

(3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4.25) J

(3 players)
Hero bets $2.71, CO calls $2.71, BTN calls $2.71

River: ($12.38) 2

(3 players)
Hero bets $3.55, CO calls $3.55, BTN raises to $20.32 and is all-in. Hero?

I know we could raise pre but I just didn't fancy getting reraised.
The CO doesn't normally raise light, I've never seem him iso limpers, he will normally limp along, so he has a hand. BTN is a decent reg but I don't think he flats any flush draws other than AcKc or maybe AcTc at a push so its either a flush or a bluff based on my river bet sizing which in hindsight looks too small.
Comments?

 

[Aces2w1n]

Looks like kq to me

 

[John A]

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Hero (SB): $34.98 (139.9 bb)
BB: $20.15 (80.6 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb)
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
MP3: $12.14 (48.6 bb)
CO: $24.37 (97.5 bb)VPIP: 15, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 3.3, Hands: 821
BTN: $24.28 (97.1 bb)VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 8, AF: 2.2, Hands: 261

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q

Q

2 folds, MP3 calls $0.25, CO raises to $1.25, BTN calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 9

8

T

(3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4.25) J

(3 players)
Hero bets $2.71, CO calls $2.71, BTN calls $2.71

River: ($12.38) 2

(3 players)
Hero bets $3.55, CO calls $3.55, BTN raises to $20.32 and is all-in. Hero?

I know we could raise pre but I just didn't fancy getting reraised.
The CO doesn't normally raise light, I've never seem him iso limpers, he will normally limp along, so he has a hand. BTN is a decent reg but I don't think he flats any flush draws other than AcKc or maybe AcTc at a push so its either a flush or a bluff based on my river bet sizing which in hindsight looks too small.
Comments?

I hate flatting almost any hands in the SB, except small pairs when I don't have a squeeze happy BB. I know you said you could raise pre, but you should just raise pre here.

As played bet / fold slightly more on the river. Seems odd that btn wouldn't bet a flush draw on the flop, and doubt he's thinking about how he can get both of you to fold. But I'd just let it go. I think if you even bet just ~5-5.5ish you get the same range of two pair to call, Qx won't try and push you off a split.

 

[Figaroo2]

River bet fold or get it in?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

SB: $51.62 (206.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $26.59 (106.4 bb)
UTG+1: $32.98 (131.9 bb)
UTG+2: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
MP1: $25.89 (103.6 bb)
MP2: $15.16 (60.6 bb)
MP3: $25.14 (100.6 bb)VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 2.4, Hands: 4818
CO: $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $31.60 (126.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2

2

3 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.85) 8

5

2

(3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.81, MP3 calls $0.81, Hero calls $0.81

Turn: ($3.28) 9

(3 players)
Hero bets $2.09, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $2.09

River: ($7.46) Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $5.34, MP3 raises to $21.99 Hero??
This player is a reg with very similar stats to me and ergo I don't think this is a bluff, 67s or JTs makes the most sense in a limped pot, the latter fav as open ended on the turn, but does JT call on the flop? could be sets of 5 or 8 I suppose.
Does he just think I'm trying to steal this pot? My hand is difficult for him to put me on,

Spoiler

I did fold.

 

[John A]

Hero bets $5.34, MP3 raises to $21.99 Hero??
This player is a reg with very similar stats to me and ergo I don't think this is a bluff, 67s or JTs makes the most sense in a limped pot, the latter fav as open ended on the turn, but does JT call on the flop? could be sets of 5 or 8 I suppose.
Does he just think I'm trying to steal this pot? My hand is difficult for him to put me on,

Spoiler

I did fold.

These spots always come down to 2 things:
1) Are there worse value hands that are raising?
2) How capable is my opponent of turning a bad made hand into a bluff?

When both 1 and 2 are no's, which seems to be the case here, then I think it's an "easy" fold. I say easy because no one likes folding sets. Bottom set might be the exception here since there can be worse sets on top of the straights that have come in.

I think with how you bet the river, it's safe to say he knows you have a decently big hand. Your hand is somewhat disguised, but your range also looks like a made draw, so there's no real incentive for him to bluff.

Good fold. nh.

 

[John A]

Alright... pose a question since this thread is losing some steam. From a hand I played the other day.

Villain is 44/20 w/ 30% AGG after 45 hands. I read him as a foldable fish, and fish hate flushes coming in. Bet more? Bet less, or don't even try against someone like this?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $1(BB)
HJ ($195.45)
CO ($98.5)
HERO ($117.15)
SB ($102.15)
BB ($174.03)
UTG ($82)
MP ($27)
MP ($129.35)

Dealt to Hero J:spade: 9:heart:

UTG Folds, MP Folds, MP Raises To $3 (Rem. Stack: 126.35), HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Calls $3 (Rem. Stack: 114.15), SB Folds, BB Folds

Flop ($7.5) A:club: 4:diamond: 9:diamond:
MP Bets $4 (Rem. Stack: 122.35), HERO Calls $4 (Rem. Stack: 110.15)

Turn ($15.5) A:club: 4:diamond: 9:diamond: 5:diamond:
MP Checks, HERO Bets $8 (Rem. Stack: 102.15), MP Calls $8 (Rem. Stack: 114.35)

River ($31.5) A:club: 4:diamond: 9:diamond: 5:diamond: 7:heart:
MP Checks, HERO Bets $30.5 (Rem. Stack: 71.65)

 

[Aces2w1n]

Cbetting all their range... i guess size is ur tell

 

[Aces2w1n]

Cbetting all their range being ace high flop.

So we bet for value when diamond hits hoping he calls with draws or folds.

I guess ur river bet could be polarized but no concern there against fish. Do you think once he calls turn we should just go to showdown?

 

[Figaroo2]

44/20 w/ 30% AGG is pretty loose passive so when he's bet twice postflop I'd put a fair amount of aces in his range, I'd say probably more than half his combos on the turn are Ax.
The question I'd be asking is, what else is he betting the turn with if he doesn't have an ace? If he doesn't have an ace then off of his aggression stat he might still be betting his own draw but draws are few (67 and diamonds) and the diamond draw gets there.
I dont see this sort of player double barrelling any pair under the ace once he gets called on the flop, but I wouldn't totally exclude it.
His bet sizing is a little nervous on the turn but I feel he still thinks he's fav.
The river check doesn't mean much for a 30% agg stat, Id expect him to check everything except a very strong hand here.
Problem with the low runout is that there will now be a some two pair combos and I doubt he folds 2 pair or a strong top pair on that board to anything but a shove and I wouldn't count on that especially if he has the ace of diamonds.
I don't think I would bluff here against a guy who could easily have two pair who likely won't fold no matter the sizing.
I think he might fold A2 A3 A6, maybe A8 to your 30bb river bet but not AT AJ AQ AK and all the two pairs.
Id have a peek at his WTSD% and if it was more than 24% I'm not bluffing.
As we don't have that much invested prior to the river I'd just check it down here with our showdown value and hope he was betting with 67..or maybe going a bit mad with 88 66.
I think maybe preflop J9os isn't the greatest, it would have been nicer suited.

 

[John A]

44/20 w/ 30% AGG is pretty loose passive so when he's bet twice postflop I'd put a fair amount of aces in his range, I'd say probably more than half his combos on the turn are Ax.
The question I'd be asking is, what else is he betting the turn with if he doesn't have an ace? If he doesn't have an ace then off of his aggression stat he might still be betting his own draw but draws are few (67 and diamonds) and the diamond draw gets there.
I dont see this sort of player double barrelling any pair under the ace once he gets called on the flop, but I wouldn't totally exclude it.
His bet sizing is a little nervous on the turn but I feel he still thinks he's fav.
The river check doesn't mean much for a 30% agg stat, Id expect him to check everything except a very strong hand here.
Problem with the low runout is that there will now be a some two pair combos and I doubt he folds 2 pair or a strong top pair on that board to anything but a shove and I wouldn't count on that especially if he has the ace of diamonds.
I don't think I would bluff here against a guy who could easily have two pair who likely won't fold no matter the sizing.
I think he might fold A2 A3 A6, maybe A8 to your 30bb river bet but not AT AJ AQ AK and all the two pairs.
Id have a peek at his WTSD% and if it was more than 24% I'm not bluffing.
As we don't have that much invested prior to the river I'd just check it down here with our showdown value and hope he was betting with 67..or maybe going a bit mad with 88 66.
I think maybe preflop J9os isn't the greatest, it would have been nicer suited.

He didn't bet the turn.. he check / called. Then checked again on the river. Does this change your analysis at all?

As far as pre, I would think you know I know why I'm getting in a pot. The guy is a fish and the blinds are nits. Not worried about being squeezed, and pretty sure I can outplay most fish at 100nl IP.