
John A
Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
SB: $26.83 (107.3 bb)
BB: $26.45 (105.8 bb)
UTG+2: $26.70 (106.8 bb)
MP1: $26.52 (106.1 bb) VPIP: 10, PFR: 7, 3B: 4, AF: 2.8, Hands: 326
MP2: $27.11 (108.4 bb)
MP3: $10.21 (40.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $32.21 (128.8 bb)
BTN: $33.83 (135.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with JQ![]()
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UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds
Flop: ($2.60) 83
K
(3 players)![]()
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $1.24, MP1 raises to $3.75, MP3 folds, Hero calls $2.51 . ok this is an easy call with our equity.
Turn: ($10.10) J(2 players)![]()
MP1 bets $5.50
Hero ?
Simple maths here getting 3-1 and our equity seems about right against AA AK KK I made it around 25% at the table as the J gives us extra outs and the equity calc shows 28% but the flush draw is very obvious and I doubt we are getting the rest of his stack unless he has a set of kings and then we have to hope the board doesn't pair as well.
Maybe I should have taken the free turn card as well?
So what do you do here?
Flop bet and call are fine. It's a little strange he'd check that board w/ anything (even air), so he def has a big hand. Yeah, your non-nut flush draw implied odds are not great, but it helps that he's tight and likely has a big hand here. And you're right, a 3rd J or a Q won't help a lot of the time, but I think he can and will do this with AA/AK often enough. On the surface you're getting direct odds, but the implied odds estimation is always the trick. Against a tight, non-spewy opponent, it's pretty close. I think a call is ok, but depending on your estimation of this opponent, it may be slightly -EV. If you're really unsure, a fold is ok.
Even if we do the math on the combos and the odds you're getting, it's still going to come down to the implied odds estimation. I don't think you have big issues w/ reverse implied odds here, but you do have a non-clean diamond out. On the whole I'd lean towards fold, but again, I don't think a call is horrible either.