Live Grind: How to Fall Asleep at the Table (Without Getting Caught)

duggs

duggs

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33 i dunno, if we are flatting a widish range and floating occasionally i think we can find much better bluff candidates with blockers/redraws than this.

XX.
us pre flop 22-JJ AT+ 67s+ KJs+
him pre flop 99+ AJo+ ATs KQs

flop:
us 56s 22-JJ 78s 79s ATs+ AJo+ 89s 9Tss+
him AJ+ KQss

turn
56s 22-JJ 78s ATss+ AJ-AQ 89s 9Ts+
him AJ+ KQss

river
same as above, probably remove most of your made flushes just based on sizing but yea looks pretty clear bet with most of our range.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Pretty much agree with your guys' analysis of villain's range, although b/c he's weak-tight I actually thought he could have some like 88-TT as well. I had air, and I didn't bet bigger OTR because I didn't feel it was necessary. As for betting into the field OTF, I think it's fine since the PFR was the first to act, so when everyone checks afterward, it will tend to be more representative of their actual hand strengths (not just "checking to the raiser").

I was planning to post more live hands, but I have a splitting head ache, and need to start trying to get back to bed at more reasonable hours. Today was exhausting in a number of ways as well, so I don't feel up to sitting down to try to write down as much as I'd like. Expect a better update tomorrow, though!!
 
Matt Vaughan

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Here are a few hands from the other night:

- EP limper, MP makes it $14, next guy flats, and I flat with J9hh in the CO. Two more callers behind me. The flop is K52, with two hearts. Checks to the PFR, who bets $37. I call getting about 3:1. The limper in EP calls. Turn is an offsuit 2, and it checks to me. I think about betting, but something in the PFR's demeanor makes me think he has a K and isn't planning to fold at all. Plus his flop bet represents some strength (the flop was 5-handed). I check it back. River is the 4h, and it checks to me. I bet $80 (into about $180), since I think both their ranges are fairly weak now - weak Kx at best most likely.

- AK in the BB, in a straddled pot. UTG loose-aggro, somewhat spewy player makes it $15. BTN and SB (very loose bad preflop, unpredictable postflop) both call. I make it $60, and UTG and BTN both call. Flop Q82 rainbow, I bet $80. Both players fold.


This next hand was kind of a big deal:

Preflop: :5h4: :5c4:
On the button, one limper, and someone makes it $12. Two callers to me, I call, and and both blinds call. 6-way to the flop.

Flop: ($70) :5d4: :3d4: :2d4: (6 players)
The BB leads for $15 into about $70, and there are 3 calls to me. I make it $110 to go, and it folds to the first caller of the $15, who SNAP-goes all in. He has about $570 before he calls the flop bet, and I cover the table. The next player to act (a terribad, loose fish) calls all in for $70. It folds to me. I'm last to act, and everyone is all in but me, so I flip my hand over and watch the player who flatted/3bet-jammed the flop. He doesn't seem at all concerned by my hand, but he doesn't react strongly positively either.

I tank for perhaps a minute, going back over the action in my head. I'm instantaneously worried that my hand is no good, and I can't think he would play a set this way. This player is tight with what he puts money in with postflop, and he almost certainly would have raised a hand as vulnerable as a set on a monotone board here, when someone leads for 1/5 pot. He must have a flush... But what price am I getting? I can pair the board... But he has a FLUSH. WHAT PRICE AM I GETTING?

By this point, some regs have come over and are observing the hand play out. No one calls the clock on me, despite my having taken over 2 full minutes and making a spectacle. I can't do the mental math right now. The spot is too gross - I just can't think the numbers through. But I know it's close. But if it's extremely close, do I really want to call it off for over 200 more bb? The table is loose and bad, and most are deep-stacked. I can make money in other spots.

I pick up my cards and do a couple swings toward the muck, but I don't let go yet. I watch the villain who jammed, hoping to get something, anything out of him. He says "you know what the right decision is." He doesn't seem particularly concerned with what I do. Yep, that's a flush 100%, I concede to myself.

After my pump-fakes I had set my cards back down, still face up. One reg watching wondered aloud, "is he really going to fold that?" Another replied, "you couldn't pry those cards out of his hand if you tried."

About 30 more seconds passed.

"I fold."

I couldn't bring myself to toss my cards in, but I forced myself to form the words before I could do anything stupid like throw a stack of chips into the middle.

Half the table gasped in surprise, and seemingly a hundred more people behind me did the same. I turned around, somewhat surprised. It was very clearly the right fold - the only question was whether I could make it or not.

The villain who jammed says, "well, you're going to get to see it anyway," and turns over the AQdd. I sigh audibly with relief.

"Don't pair the board, Richie," I beg the dealer. "Don't do it."

An offsuit T hits the turn.

"Don't do it." I am staring daggers into the spot where the river is about to go.

"Just don't."

Deuce on the river.

I explode back from my place at the table and do a 2-second lap around a pillar. I can't believe it. Neither can anyone else.

"I snap-call there," says seat 9. I'm beside myself, but I hold back any condescending remarks and just sit back down in my seat.

The regs eventually disperse, and the game continues, but the conversation is locked onto the hand I had just played. Everyone had an opinion, but the one man in seat 9 kept saying how he would have snap-called, and he wishes I had called, because he wanted to see me win.

...........

I refused to try to explain to him why a call was wrong. But even as I was outwardly exasperated with the board's runout, there was a feeling growing inside of me. I couldn't identify it at first, but I realized it was pure satisfaction. Relief. Incredulity, but also pride. I could hardly believe that I'd just correctly folded top set on the flop. But I had done it. And board pair or no, it was right. I wouldn't have made that fold a year ago. Hell, I probably wouldn't have made it 3 months ago. But I made it yesterday. And that's something worth feeling good about.
 
duggs

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epic, how many combos of lower sets does he need for this to go from epic to terrible tho (don't think he has any) i dunno if we are getting the right price or not, and i dunno which way the all in players blockers go.
 
JOEBOB69

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Yeah I call. AI player should hold Q-A of d a lot IMO. An that cuts villains flush range a lot.
BTW I just played the most reg infested 1/3 table of all time
 
stately7

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Wow this hand is insane scourrge. I have been in this spot and it's SO HARD to calculate correctly in the moment.

Great lay down though. What is the final math here? You're roughly, what, 28% to beat him by the river and the pot is asking you to call $460 to win $810 right. It's worse than 2:1 (more like 1.7:1 i think) and you'd need 33% equity approx to call if it was 2:1. Have I done this right?

EDIT: Also - i didn't know we're allowed to flip our cards without saying call or fold, to gauge a reaction when others are already all in, and we're last to act. That's quite interesting.
 
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Matt Vaughan

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If we know he has a flush, we need 34.5% equity and we have 33.5% equity. Disgustingly close to even money. I don't think he has any combos of sets so blockers are irrelevant imo
 
stately7

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I agree he doesn't have sets as well, just from the way the action played.

How did you calculate that we have 33.5% equity, when I make it 28% approx for us to make quads or a full house when we know he has a flush? (Sorry if this is a bit 101).

And if it is so crazy close to even money, is it in fact a call? (not in the moment, but on reflection here)

Or is it that you feel that even money - say a 50/50 style flip - can still dictate a fold in the same way that we may decline an ALL IN preflop holding AK when we're deep with an opponent who has let's say jammed all in pre and we're pretty sure they're holding QQ /JJ.
 
duggs

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the shorty all in could hold blockers to our outs,
 
xdeucesx

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didn't double check your math, (I trust you :)) but if it's right, I think 1% of the time he can show up w/AA with A of diamonds. I mean 1% takes this to +ev under your calcs.
 
Matt Vaughan

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I like how you guys are really breaking this spot apart. There are a couple things I want to clarify here, just in case they weren't obvious:


- The guy who jammed was not the PFR - he overcalled the preflop raise (I think this alone lets us discount AA entirely for this player, but even if it doesn't, it's discounted a lot imo).

- We have 9 outs to boat or quad up on the turn, but if we don't on the turn, then we have 10 outs to boat or quad up on the river.

- I think his line is much more indicative of the nut flush, since he doesn't raise outright when someone leads for a tiny size. A weaker flush would likely raise. And a straight flush wouldn't jam over my raise. It might re-raise small, or just call.

- If he has A6dd-AQdd (but NOT A4dd), then we have 33.5% equity (plugged into software similar to Pokerstove).

- I think it's tough for shorty to not raise flop with sets (in particular because she overcalled the $15), but it's possible she has a few combos of sets.
 
duggs

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even if shorty has single pair hands it kills our odds,
 
xdeucesx

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I mean it's obv discounted, but can we say with completely certainty he doesn't just overcall with AA 1% of the time? or better yet, even .5% of the time to make it an even money call
 
xdeucesx

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still think it's a fold since shorty can be blocking a lot of our outs enough to make it not a profitable spot....however, in game, I probably call off like a donk.
 
Matt Vaughan

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If he has 0.6% of combos of AA with the Ad, this is still not a call :)
 
Matt Vaughan

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still think it's a fold since shorty can be blocking a lot of our outs enough to make it not a profitable spot....however, in game, I probably call off like a donk.

And yah lol - it's not like I snap-folded obv. Though sand was saying how sick it would have been if I had snap-folded faceup haha.
 
xdeucesx

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right i was looking at it quickly, but point stands, I don't think it's a stretch to say 1% of the time he has AA/KK with A or K of Diamonds.
 
stately7

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I guess AA with the Ad, it just depends how aggressive he is on nut flush draws, but read seems to be he doesn't GII unless he's well in front.

Thanks on clarifying the 33.5% equity, i wasn't including the extra outs for runner, runner pairing of the board.

Like the fold even more with duggs' point on the shorty killing our outs when she has one pair hands on the flop. (although i think sometimes she has Kd, drawing dead).

It's so close. Cool hand, sweet fold!
 
Matt Vaughan

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right i was looking at it quickly, but point stands, I don't think it's a stretch to say 1% of the time he has AA/KK with A or K of Diamonds.

btw, the reason why 1% of his range being AdAx doesn't turn this into a call is that AdAx has a fair bit of equity vs. us -> 41.5% in fact. so we don't win 100% of the time that he has AdAx, and therefore don't gain 1% of equity from 1% of his range being that hand. :)
 
Matt Vaughan

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Alright fellows. I know there's been a lot going on lately, and I've been trying to get a good balance between hands and overall chatting about my bankroll and plans for what games I'm playing. There's just so much happening for me as of late. Last y'all had heard, my bankroll was at a cool 5.9k. Well, since then (yes, it's only been about 3 days), I've had my biggest winning day and my biggest losing day.

I'm not going to post hands from my biggest winning day (probably), because to be honest they were pretty much all standard. When you're running hot, most of your hands play themselves, and this Thursday night I was indeed running hot. I must have flopped at least 4 sets, made 3 or 4 flushes, and gotten paid decent-sized pots on most of them. I made just over $1,000 playing 1/2 online, on two tables. One of which I was playing at for 3 hours, the other just 1 hour. For just a few hundred hands, it felt like insanity.

In addition to this, though, I took a shot in another game that runs every few days - 5/10 NL. I'd done so once before, in a game whose lineup was extremely soft. The standard buy in is $500 for some reason, so I figured taking a shot in a really soft game playing with smallish stacks couldn't be too bad so long as I wasn't going to keep rebuying if I lost. In my first shot, I made a somewhat questionable semi-bluff shove vs. someone I have a lot of history with, and he tank-called with a set. He rivered quads and that was that. This time I played significantly tighter, as people weren't adjusting in the slightest. I made a few strong hands here as well, and walked away a $1,200 winner.

Live sessions were swingy in their own right though. After my huge winning day, my bankroll was sitting a decent chunk over 8k, and I was feeling a little confused. The past two months have represented a veritable explosion in bankroll for me. It's been very similar to the run I went on at Bovada where I began just crushing the game for a couple months, sending my $150 roll to almost 3 grand. Though not on the same scale (since I started with a smaller roll relative to the stakes I'm playing and haven't moved up limits for the most part), these past few months have been pretty absurd, with my roll growing from a battered $2,000 or so to nearly $8,500.

But poker isn't all about success and fast-growing rolls; and live poker is not without swings of its own. Friday night, the day after my huge win, I decided to go to the Horseshoe to try my luck there. The plan was to shot-take 2/5 for the second time. But this time with something that much more closely resembled a shot-taking-sized bankroll. With nearly 17 BI's, I felt pretty comfortable with the amount I'd be risking, and with my recent run good and solid play, I felt confident in my abilities.

When I got to the shoe, there was open seating for 1/2, and a waitlist for 2/5, so I put my name on the list for 2/5, and sat down at 1/2. I was introduced to the table by a friendly semi-reg who I've spoken with a fair bit in the past. He's a relatively stereotypical older, nittier fellow, but he values my opinion on poker hands a lot, and his image of me is essentially a crushing professional. So naturally, he makes it his duty to mention what a strong player I am every time I sit at his table.

I quickly lived up to my introduction, value-betting second pair and calling a river bluff by one player, and bullying the table into submission in a few medium-sized pots. Then I got into a somewhat interesting hand where two players limped in, and I tried to isolate with A6ss. It folded around to the limpers, but they both called, and we went 3-way to the flop. A pretty reasonable Kx43ss flop greeted us, and when it checked to me I bet about 2/3 the pot. The first limper called, while the other folded. The turn was an offsuit 5, giving me an open-ended straight draw to go along with my nut flush draw. The villain tanked a little, shifting in his chair, and finally checked. With what I perceived as a reasonable amount of fold equity, some times when I was ahead of worse flush draws, and now 6 extra outs if called, I jammed all in for what was approximately a pot-sized bet (villain was a little short to start the hand). He tanked for maybe 30 seconds, then sort of sigh-called.

The river bricked out, and I announced my hand as A high. Villain looked a little confused for a moment, and turned over his hand: Q5ss. I felt it was pretty likely he would have called all in whether or not he spiked a pair, so it felt like a pretty gross 6 outer. It felt even grosser when I realized that not only did any 7, 2, or spade make me the best hand, but a 6 or A would have been good enough to win as well. But none of my 19 outs came, and I found myself no longer in profit.

This villain was bad beat for a sizable amount a few hands later when he got it in with 5's full of A's against trip A's, and the river tripped up, giving my older friend quads. About an orbit later, I got involved in a pot with the same player. He raised to $7 in MP, and got one caller. I made it $22 with AKdd in the SB, and villain jammed $77. The flatter folded, and I called it off. The villain had 99 and held on a pretty wet board.

Eventually I was called for 2/5. I sat down with some trepidation. The table was on the opposite side of the room from where the 2/5 games normally run. They typically run in an area of the room that is more closed off from other tables, and with more space as well. It's quieter, and more conducive to playing solid poker. But I settled in and tried to get my bearings on the table. It didn't take too long for me to get involved in a hand.


Preflop: :jh4: :9h4:
In MP, one limper and I overlimp. The button makes it $20, and the other limper and I both call.

Flop: ($60) :jc4: :9s4: :8c4: (3 players)
It checks to the button, who bets $20, which stinks of weakness or a mediocre draw to me. The EP limper calls, and I make it $100. They both fold fairly quickly, which surprised me, given how draw-heavy the board was.


My next hand of note was a little more interesting in terms of postflop play, and highlights one of the major differences between 1/2 and 2/5.


Preflop: :ac4: :jd4:
One limper, and I iso to $25 from MP. I get a caller from the blind, and the limper calls as well.

Flop: ($75) :9s4: :6c4: :4s4: (3 players)
It checks to me and I make a $45 cbet. They both call. At this point I am done with the hand unless something unusual happens.

Turn: ($210) :3s4: (3 players)
Action quickly checks to me, and after a little bit of thought/waiting, I check behind.

River: ($210) :ks4: (3 players)
Both villains fairly quickly check to me again, and it feels like everyone has draws rather than single-pair type hands. Even if someone is holding on with one pair though, the K is a pretty good card for my range, and I expect someone holding 77 may well fold here. I bet $115, and they both quickly fold.

I got into a few other spots at the must-move game. In one spot I called down 2 streets with the bottom end of a straight on a 543 2 board after check-calling with AK as the PFR. The villain bet the blank river and I called. He shook his head, as if he had nothing, and I waited a moment to see if he would show. He looked at me expectantly, and thinking my hand was good, I showed. He looked at my hand, then turned over A6o for a higher straight. I wasn't pleased, but the villain didn't seem to realize he had done anything that constituted poor etiquette, so I refocused. A few hands later, I flopped a set in a straddled pot against what I can only assume was an overpair. I held, and I was up a solid 100bb or so, but I quickly lost it back when I tried to hero with top pair top kicker on an exceedingly disgusting board. Frustrated with my play, I resolved myself to tighten up and think through ranges more concretely before trying to be a hero again.

Eventually I was called for the main game, which actually appeared softer than the must-move game. Pretty quickly I got wrapped up in an interesting spot.


Preflop: :ah4: :9h4:
In the CO, there's a raise and a call, and I decide to squeeze. It's not something I've ever been able to do very much at 1/2, but people actually fold to 3bets at 2/5 it seems, although it may appear this way more than it is, since there are more 3bets going on generally. In any case, I get a cold-caller, and the person who called the PFR also calls.

Flop: ($180) :9s4: :8s4: :3c4: (3 players)
It checks to me, and I bet $80. The cold-caller folds, but the other player calls, and we go HU to the turn.

Turn: ($340) :7d4: (2 players)
This time, villain leads for $100. I'm a little frazzled, since I wasn't expecting that at all. The turn isn't the worst card in the deck for me, but JT gets there, and a lot of hands that might stubbornly flat the flop just made two pair. But it could also be a bit of a scare card, and/or villain may be trying to set his price. I will only have about $200 behind if I call, but for some reason I don't really consider jamming. I eventually call, expecting this to slow down/prevent most river bluffs.

River: ($540) :jc4: (2 players)
Villain bets $200 (I have $208), and I'm in a quandary. The villain is an old man, and stereotypically this means he is nitty and bets his hands based on their absolute value. On the other hand, this board got scary for literally everything, and villain probably isn't capable of betting two pair for value here. If he plays a set this way, he might not bet the river either. He's repping a T, and I just don't have enough info to not give him credit. I make a tight fold, and top up $200.


In retrospect, I'm not really sure I like my river fold. If I'm going to make a stand, I think I should jam the turn, when I can still charge draws a bit more, and potentially get it in against worse 9x. A little while later I limp/4bet-jammed all-in preflop with 66 when an aggressive 3bettor squeezed 4 players from the button. I got folds, which increased my confidence in my table dynamic reads. A few orbits later I made a somewhat ill-advised 3bet jam on a flop with a flush draw and was called by two pair, but I binked and was back up to around $800. From there I managed to chip up, winning a number of small pots. Then this hand happened:


Preflop: :4d4: :4c4:
In the CO, 7-handed, a tight, EP player makes it $15 to go. I flat, as does a loose (preflop) but competent player in the BB.

Flop: ($45) :kd4: :kc4: :3s4: (3 players)
It checks to the PFR, who thinks for a little while and checks. I consider betting, but decide to check behind, since I'm not convinced I get the BB to fold much of anything.

Turn: ($45) :4h4: (3 players)
I turn gin, but I don't really expect to make anything on it. Surprisingly, when the BB checks to the EP PFR, the PFR bets $30. I tank for a little bit, unsure of what EP's range is, and unsure what the best play is. I decide to flat, since I think villain probably still has a reasonable amount of air that will snap-fold to me, and a lot of his thinner value hands can't handle a raise.

River: ($105) :2c4: (2 players)
Villain quickly bets $100, essentially the pot. I'm now putting him squarely on Kx, pretty much solely based on sizing alone. I quickly go through what hands I think he could play this way. AK is the most likely, and I'm not worried about K2, K3, or K4, since he is tight and raised preflop. Even though it seems like I turn my hand pretty faceup and he might have to fold all trips except for AK, a value raise still seems mandatory. I make it $275, which is about a 2/3 pot size raise. Villain thinks for approximately 30 seconds... and goes all in for about $650 on top effective (he covers me).

At this point, I'm concerned: his actions smell an awful lot like quad kings. I'm really struggling to see how a tight, thinking player would 3bet jam the river with trip kings against someone who's line looks like a flopped, turned, or rivered boat. The problem is, I don't know enough about him. I feel almost certain he doesn't jam AK or worse, but can he have 33? How many combos? Doesn't he cbet the flop some % of the time with 33? I discount 22 almost entirely, since I think the combination of factors dictates it (he may have limped preflop, he may have cbet the flop, he may have checked the turn if he checks the flop). Even though there is only one combo of KK, I'm really having a hard time seeing 33 take this line.

I tank for maybe 2 minutes, but eventually, worrying I am overthinking and in fact may be slow-rolling, I call.


Thoughts on the hand? Thoughts on anything? Let me know guys. Thanks a ton for following along with me on my hectic journey everyone!! :D
 
duggs

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seems pretty redic to fold, 33 is at least as likely as KK and makes it an easy call.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Thoughts on other hands? Btw there is a mistake in the AJo hand. I was doing this late last night and screwed up - no flush gets there. Turn is offsuit 3, river is offsuit K.
 
duggs

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A9 we are actually pretty far down in our range, so I'm not sure i love flop or turn tbh, flop i can live with but i probably fold turn to the lead.

AJo looks good, i take the same line tbh.

J9s is std
 
Mr Sandbag

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seems pretty redic to fold

That's what I said. If it was like a tournament situation or you were super deep, I guess a fold wouldn't be horrible. But even then, you'd have to be preeeetty sure the guy is never putting his stack in with AK/33. Just a cooler.
 
Matt Vaughan

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I think I agree with you guys off-table. I really still don't think he ever jams it in with AK there, but 33 has to be possible. And as you say, if he plays KK this way 100%, he only has to play 33 in the same way about 17% of the time for this to be totally fine. And I don't have enough of a read to say he wouldn't play 33 this way.

I have this tendency to try to look for my mistakes rather than believe I was coolered. Bad beats are another story, but I usually tend toward feeling like I should be able to get away from coolers. In a way though, it's kind of a bad beat, because obv if I don't spike a 4 I never even put any more money in. So basically a 2 outer :D

So yeah. I lost to quads, and lost an even $900 on the day, $770ish of that at 2/5, and most of that on the very last hand. I did make some mistakes prior to that though, so I think I didn't run that far below EV overall really, given the mistakes I made. Pretty damn sick to have my biggest winning day, immediately followed by my biggest losing day, but thankfully my biggest losing day is much, MUCH smaller than my biggest winner :)

I played some more 2/5 last night, for a $350 profit. I'll probably try to post some hands from that session, although I frankly felt very comfortable throughout. It's the softest I've seen the game, and I was pretty much in my element and reading the table well the entire time. One perk to 2/5 is that it holds my attention better than 1/2. The hands I'm not involved in interest me more than the 1/2 hands, because people's lines tend to make more sense overall, and the action is more interesting in general.
 
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