Live Grind: How to Fall Asleep at the Table (Without Getting Caught)

[Matt Vaughan]

Original raiser folds like 80+% to 3b. Over a reasonable sample. But also postflop is vs. SB cold-caller, who is a 35/8.

 

[duggs]

river is a psb right? i jam that all day.

this opponent isn't going to be one to slow play often, so barring QQ all of the range that can beat us on river raises flop. as played i guess its a fold but we shouldn't let that cloud our river decision.

jam>>>b/f>>>check

 

[Matt Vaughan]

fwiw she tank-checked and tank-called the turn, and then tank-checked the river.

But what are we really getting called by when we jam? Don't you think it's pretty likely that 77-JJ fold the turn? And if not the turn, then fold on the river when we bet 120bb into like 135bb?

Also, can you explain why you don't think villain wouldn't slow play like 55 here? I'm not saying I disagree, I'm just not sure about it.

(Thanks for input though, this hand really ****ed with my head.)

 

[duggs]

i assume that fundamentally bad players (see pre flop stats) play fundamentally face up post flop, seems like a decent assumption to make.
Qx mainly, maybe 2nd pair hands. i don't think villain will be that inelastic and if we are worried about running into better hands too often then why are we giving them an uber wide range only early streets, but assuming they make good folds on later streets?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

But how does Qx even get to the turn? Maybe cold-calling the 3bet with KQ, and def AQ preflop, but then on the flop? As you said, should play fundamentally face up, which would not involve flatting the flop with AQ or KQ imo.

And fwiw I didn't think her range was uber-wide on early streets and then she makes good folds OTR. I just don't know what her turn calling frequency is with like JJ- when a Q hits the board and I've barreled twice in a 3bet pot. And it's not like I'm worried about better hands until the river - I have the effective nuts. Like literally, when she tank-called the turn I was thinking that if the board paired and I faced aggression I was ****ed. I thought a lot of her range could be sets, since she might literally not fold any PP preflop to the 3bet.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

I thought a lot of her range could be sets, since she might literally not fold any PP preflop to the 3bet.

This exactly. A cold call from the SB is like PP's (22-JJ) and AQ+. But I don't think non-pairs ever get to the turn. Overpairs don't get to the river, and if they did they wouldn't be jamming.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

i assume that fundamentally bad players (see pre flop stats) play fundamentally face up post flop, seems like a decent assumption to make

Right. So Qx folds flop. And boats jam river. Seems pretty face up to me.

 

[duggs]

This exactly. A cold call from the SB is like PP's (22-JJ) and AQ+. But I don't think non-pairs ever get to the turn. Overpairs don't get to the river, and if they did they wouldn't be jamming.

i didn't say they would be jamming, thats kind of irrelevant.

a cold call from a 37/7 from the blinds can have 22-JJ Axs+ KTs+ AJ+ 87s+

22-JJ/AQ+ is a pretty specific cold calling range.

 

[duggs]

Right. So Qx folds flop. And boats jam river. Seems pretty face up to me.

sets raise flop. fish don't fold over cards anywhere near 100%.

 

[duggs]

fish also don't fold 2nd pair as often as they should.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

sets raise flop. fish don't fold over cards anywhere near 100%.

They do on the turn.

It's close between checking and b/f, but I think jamming is awful.

 

[duggs]

Qx doesn't fold the turn ever.

is an 80% psb. you can't honestly say b/f is great and that jamming is awful when we have a fish with .8 SPR and we have a strong hand v a weak range.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

You can't say villain plays face up post then assume she calls a flop bet with Qx. That makes no sense.

 

[duggs]

You can't say villain plays face up post then assume she calls a flop bet with Qx. That makes no sense.

why not, fish not folding over cards is totally normal. saying they flop a set call down till river and have the discipline to check/raise river makes less sense

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Floating AQ, or worse KQ, isn't face up. If villain is capable of floating two overcards on the flop in a 3bet pot OOP, I'd say she's capable of c/r river with a boat or better.

 

[duggs]

Floating AQ, or worse KQ, isn't face up. If villain is capable of floating two overcards on the flop in a 3bet pot OOP, I'd say she's capable of c/r river with a boat or better.

its not floating, its just not folding.

 

[Ubercroz]

its not floating, its just not folding.

lol

 

[Mr Sandbag]

I guess I'll just never understand how a fish could call OOP with two overs but not be capable of slow playing a set.

 

[duggs]

because fish call with weak hands but raise strong ones?

 

[duggs]

villain clearly calls too many weak hands pre and only raises strong ones.
why wouldn't we correlate this to post flop

 

[Matt Vaughan]

i didn't say they would be jamming, thats kind of irrelevant.

a cold call from a 37/7 from the blinds can have 22-JJ Axs+ KTs+ AJ+ 87s+

22-JJ/AQ+ is a pretty specific cold calling range.

I really don't understand why you think so much of her VPIP is going to be cold-calling a 3b??

Edit: Fwiw I wasn't looking at this stat at the time, but her cold-call any 3b stat is 10% (5/50). And I definitely was thinking more along those lines at the time.

 

[duggs]

thats like 14.2% of hands

 

[duggs]

so a little over a 3rd of her total range.

 

[duggs]

i also didn't mean all Ax but i got lazy.

 

[Ubercroz]

because fish call with weak hands but raise strong ones?

They do both with both. Its why they are fish. They over value weak hanfs and under rep strong hands. At least a lot do. If they only ever called with weak and raised with strong they would actually be much better.