Because the price you pay for those additional points isn't worth it.
So the odds you laid on that teaser are 100:90.91. So in order for that bet to pay off, you'd have to win that bet 52.38% of the time. You take the cube root of 0.5238 to find the odds that you need to win each individual game, which is 0.806 for the math impaired.
So the question is this: if you get 10 points, does the spread go from a 50/50 proposition to an 80.6/19.4 proposition. (Spoiler alert: it doesn't) Below, I've included a screenshot from Wizard of odds showing the new odds of winning a game when you add points in your favor to the spread. As you can see, on average, when you get 10 points, your chance of winning against the spread then becomes 78.23%!
So I would have to win my bets 52.38% of the time. As I have informed you, last year I won them 68% of the time. Obviously this is a new year, and so far things have gone a bit different. But it is not like I've been a constant loser and continued with my horrible actions from last year. You've set the bar on what I should make, I've done it before, and it's very possible for me to do it again. It's not like I reported losing hundreds last year and hope things will be different this time.
By teasing 10, I bump it up to 78%. That's pretty sweet. Probability
tells us that any 3 events to occur in our favor is 47.5%. I remember seeing some table in one of your references that spells out the % of wins of 4 categories on the spread, Home Underdog, Home Fav, Visiting Underdog, Visiting Fav. They ranged from as high as 52% and as low as 48%. so any given 10 point teaser has a probability of hitting at most 4% less than a single point spread bet. All of this for 2 things: 4% difference and the value of the dollar isn't as much when betting 10 point teasers (by very little).
What is this, a late night commercial selling sham-wows?
This assumes that crossing all numbers are created equal. In football, they're not. Crossing the 3 and 7 is super important, since many games end in those margins of victory. Crossing the zero doesn't ever matter since games rarely end in ties, and one of the Cardinal sins of teasing is that you are burning money if you cross the zero. YOU DID THAT TWICE!
Lets evaluate the bets I placed, strictly from a football perspective.
Week 1: changing the Pats from -5 to +8. You have to go back to 2003 when the last time the Pats lost an opening season game, home or away. The Brady/Bellicheck era has always shown then can prepare when given time, also is why they typically win after their bye. I had them winning easy, so any +points seemed like a gimme. Who would have known they would only rack up 60 yards in the 2nd half total and completely melt down. But yea, that's football, and I would do that bet again.
Week1: changing the Saints from -3 to +7. Saints are like the Pats in the prep sense, and they are very deep in offense. Adding points in their favor is fine by me. I had them as a win straight up.
Week2: Saints (again), a strong team, facing 0-2, going against a poor offensive unit of the Browns. I put the Saints in the + because I figured they would win.
Week2: Seattle, yes, people in this thread had the upset picked, kudos to you guys honestly. I clearly thought different. They showed such a great opening act against a very good contender in GB, I didn't think a flakey SD team would keep the ball from SEA's offense for 42 of the 60 game minutes. NOBODY did. To top it off, their D is sleep napping from that game.
I would do all these bets again if possible. And if played again, I'm almost certain the outcomes would be in my favor.
So yeah, here's the deal. You are terrible at sports betting. You are the guy the casinos hope walk in the door, because you make them money. And furthermore, you are lucky, because I am spelling out for you why you're bad. Most people will not give you the 20 minutes to explain out why you're losing money, but for some reason tonight I'm feeling charitable. Please, for your child's sake, everytime you go to bet on sports in the future, stop. Do nothing. Put that money in a 529 plan. Because you are lighting dollar bills on fire by proceeding to bet sports in the manner you're betting them.
Even with this years losses, I'm still on profit. That doesn't make me TERRIBLE at sports betting. I said it from the first time you asked me on my theories, I bet on how I see things playing out, and tease points in my favor to do so. You try and preach your sports betting religion on to me, while I've tried to preach your greater that God condescending and insulting posts are not encouraged or welcome here. You made mention of changing the thread of this post or possibly getting an NFL betting thread started. Please, do me a favor and go start a thread. Telling me what is best for my child and the insults just show your true color.
Next time you're feeling 'charitable', spend some more quality time in a soup kitchen and less time throwing insults behind a message board.
I will gladly talk strategy with anyone who visits this thread. The posts with any condescending tone or insults will just be ignored. Week 3 thoughts will be out in the next couple of days. Not really feellin the Thursday night game lines, so no action there for me.