TheKid's Parlay Megathread v2.0

[TheKid84]

Oh man oh man, the time has come. I will be pacing the house until Sunday morning and I even took some OT hours at work tomorrow morning just to keep my mind occupied. I. AM. READY.

Carbon: -$20
Bovada: +$2.73
Overall: -17.27

Enough of me though, lets get down to the dirty! Here's the bets I've got lines up for week one.

Bovada:
5 Team Parlay
San Francisco 49ers -200 Sep 07/14@04:25p
Denver Broncos -400 Sep 07/14@08:30p
Chicago Bears -300 Sep 07/14@01:00p
Pittsburgh Steelers -320 Sep 07/14@01:00p
New Orleans Saints -160 Sep 07/14@01:00p
Bet $ 2.00
Win $ 8.66

4 Team Parlay
New Orleans Saints -3 (-115) Sep 07/14@01:00p
St. Louis Rams -3½ (EVEN) Sep 07/14@01:00p
Cincinnati Bengals +1 Sep 07/14@01:00p
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-120) Sep 07/14@01:00p
Bet $ 2.00
Win $ 24.17

4 Team 13 point teaser:
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
OVER 25
Denver Broncos +5 Sep 07/14@08:30p
New England Patriots +8 Sep 07/14@01:00p
Philadelphia Eagles +2½ Sep 07/14@01:00p
Bet $ 50.00
Win US$ 41.67

Carbon:
Bet $ 2.00 to win $ 13.02 Result: Pending
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
Chicago Bears -320
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers -280
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
Philadelphia Eagles -525
Minnesota Vikings vs St. Louis Rams 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
St. Louis Rams -165
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys 09/07/14 16:25 EDT
San Francisco 49ers -225
Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
Kansas City Chiefs -190


Bet $ 2.00 to win $ 12.23 Result: Pending
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers 16 vs Seattle Seahawks 36 09/04/14 20:45 EDT
Seattle Seahawks -6 (-105)
Oakland Raiders vs New York Jets 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
Over 40

Bet $ 5.00 to win $ 14.46 Result: Pending
Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos 09/07/14 20:30 EDT
Denver Broncos -330
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
Philadelphia Eagles -550
Minnesota Vikings vs St. Louis Rams 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
St. Louis Rams -180
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
New Orleans Saints -160

Bet $ 50.00 to win $ 41.67 Result: Pending
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
Philadelphia Eagles -1 (-110)
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
New England Patriots +5 (-115)
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons 09/07/14 13:00 EDT
New Orleans Saints +7 (-115)


LETS GO LETS GO!!! WIN SOME MONYESSSSSSS!!!

 

[S3mper]

I've decided to go to an underground loan shark took out 1 million dollars and put it all on the Steelers this Sunday =O

So I will either be a millionaire or change my name to Jason and move to mexico

 

[TheKid84]

I've decided to go to an underground loan shark took out 1 million dollars and put it all on the Steelers this Sunday =O

So I will either be a millionaire or change my name to Jason and move to Mexico

Good luck Jason

 

[S3mper]

Good luck Jason

Hey Steelers are a GTD win

After the game everyone's going to be like "Damn! Why didn't I double down on that game!!!"

 

[TheKid84]

Hey Steelers are a GTD win

After the game everyone's going to be like "Damn! Why didn't I double down on that game!!!"

I do like them winning. Putting 1,000,000 on them winning would win you 312,5000 on Bovada. Only if....

 

[S3mper]

Okay another dumb question but here it is

If a team is -7 that team needs to win by 8 correct?

So example (Not real spreads)

Ney York Jets -7

New York Giants +7

The Jets would have to win by 8 to beat the spread?

And what happens if they win by 7?

The reason this is confusing me is because I am use to seeing 7.5 (or half point spreads)

 

[TheKid84]

Okay another dumb question but here it is

If a team is -7 that team needs to win by 8 correct?

So example (Not real spreads)

Ney York Jets -7

New York Giants +7

The Jets would have to win by 8 to beat the spread?

And what happens if they win by 7?

The reason this is confusing me is because I am use to seeing 7.5 (or half point spreads)

Your assumptions are correct.

When it is -7 and they win by 7, it's considered a push and no action. However, I believe in the past, I have had some pushes in my parlay bets and they still have paid out including them. I have never looked into it too much, for it is a rarity to happen, however those are my assumptions.

Long story short, if you're betting on a team -7, you're betting that they will win by 8 or more.

 

[S3mper]

The no half point just confused me lol I'm so use to seeing the half point to avoid pushes

 

[TheKid84]

So I thought I'd do something a little different and not only post my wagers, but post who I thought would win and vs the spread. We'll see how long this lasts for the season. Here's my thoughts for week 1.

1:00 PM ET
Saints at Falcons; Saints SU, Saints -3.5

1:00 PM ET
Vikings at Rams; Ram SU, Rams -3.5

1:00 PM ET
Browns at Steelers; Steelers SU, Steelers -7

1:00 PM ET
Jaguars at Eagles; Eagles SU, Eagles -10.5

1:00 PM ET
Raiders at Jets; Raiders SU, Raiders +5.5

1:00 PM ET
Bengals at Ravens; Bengals SU; Bengals +1

1:00 PM ET
Bills at Bears; Bears SU, Bills +7

1:00 PM ET
Redskins at Texans; Redskins SU, Redsins +3

1:00 PM ET
Titans at Chiefs; Chiefs SU, Chiefs -3.5

1:00 PM ET
Patriots at Dolphins; Pats SU, Pats -4.5

4:25 PM ET
Panthers at Buccaneers; Car SU, Car +3

4:25 PM ET
49ers at Cowboys; 49ers SU, 49ers -4

8:30 PM ET
Colts at Broncos; Broncos SU, Colts +8 (don't feel good about the +8)

7:10 PM ET
Giants at Lions; Lions SU, Lions -6

10:20 PM ET
Chargers at Cardinals; Cards SU, Cardinals -3

 

[OzExorcist]

So far I've only taken New Orleans - 3 for week one.

 

[S3mper]

Another questioonnn

When betting Quarters does each quarter count as it's own game

example first quarter 6 1/2+ points

2nd Quarter 6 1/2+

 

[TheKid84]

So far I've only taken New Orleans - 3 for week one.

People are speculating this is going to be a close game, and possibly even Atlanta winning. I honestly don't see it at all, and thing NO will will by 7 easy...

Another questioonnn

When betting Quarters does each quarter count as it's own game

example first quarter 6 1/2+ points

2nd Quarter 6 1/2+

I'm not 100% certain. If you check the Second Quarter and it says 6.5+, they must mean only within that quarter...
I stay away from the quarter bets. They just seem weird to me, so unfortunately I have absolutely no experience.

 

[c9h13no3]

So far I've only taken New Orleans - 3 for week one.

Weird bet there. Road favorite, especially in week 1 against a rival. You gotta think that home field advantage could be at a season high for the Falcons.

Plus, there's the whole "all the public money is on NO, and when Vegas takes a side, you shouldn't bet against them" thing. Covers has 68% of the money on NO, and the Boyd books are saying there's a ~9:1 ticket disparity for NO vs. Atl. Vegas needs Atl to cover, and I'm willing to side with them if push comes to shove.

The only evidence I can find in NO's favor is that Massey-Peabody has the line at NO -4.5, but it's still only a small play for them (since 3 vs. 4.5 isn't much different). The Falcons were decimated by injuries & bad luck (close game record, ect.) last year, and I think the public is discounting what they did in 2012 too much. I think it's at least a stay-away, personally.

 

[zjohnzzz]

minn +3.5

 

[S3mper]

DO you do 2nd half bets? Was looking through and some of the spreads were pretty bad (college football)

I'm assuming that they can't see and adjust to all the games so you have the advantage of seeing the flow of the game and if there are any key injuries

 

[S3mper]

For example: Iowa was favorite to beat Ball state by +18 yesterday and at half time they had Ball State at +10 (which each half starts as it's own game like quarters do)

and Ball State was winning that game and Iowa didn't score a touchdown yet and missed 3 FG's

Ball State at +10 please thank you for the extra $50

Same thing with Iowa State vs Kansas State..

 

[TheKid84]

minn +3.5

As you see from my post above I have to disagree here, but that's why they play the game. Any given Sunday, right? GL to you man.

Plus, there's the whole "all the public money is on NO, and when Vegas takes a side, you shouldn't bet against them" thing. Covers has 68% of the money on NO, and the Boyd books are saying there's a ~9:1 ticket disparity for NO vs. Atl. Vegas needs Atl to cover, and I'm willing to side with them if push comes to shove.

There are tons of philosophies on sports betting out there, and quite frankly mine is "toss all of them out the window." I've never understood phrases like 'Vegas is on their side so don't bet against them'. I take into considerations the playing atmosphere (dome, rain, etc), offesive power, deffensive power, coaching, and how their schemes match up against each other. Wait... would that be my philosophy???

Anyway, I love that we've got some opposing sides and multiple thoughts out there and it's only week 1. Keep them coming guys, this season is sure to be a good one!

For example: Iowa was favorite to beat Ball state by +18 yesterday and at half time they had Ball State at +10 (which each half starts as it's own game like quarters do)

and Ball State was winning that game and Iowa didn't score a touchdown yet and missed 3 FG's

Ball State at +10 please thank you for the extra $50

Same thing with Iowa State vs Kansas State..

I'm really sorry man, I don't have the slightest clue when it comes to betting on the halfs, in addition to the college game. I pay attention to NFL and Michigan college football (we got spanked last night).

And one thing is for certain - definitely don't "thank" me for winning a bet prior to the bet's outcome. This threads main purpose is to get some thoughts on bets out there and track my winnings/losses. By all means if you'd like to place some bets similar to mine have at it, but remember, I do lose bets as well I will always voice my opinions on any bet I'm educated on, but don't hold me responsible for any bets

 

[S3mper]

I think you misunderstood my post lol

I was saying thank you for the $50 to the Sportsbook lol because some of their spreads during half time bets are kinda bad to the flow of the game(s)

Since they have to adjust to so many games quickly they probably aren't able to see how every game is going they make some of the spreads based off of the beginning of the game spreads.

Meaning as a better you have a bigger edge if you can find the correct games

 

[TheKid84]

I think you misunderstood my post lol

I was saying thank you for the $50 to the Sportsbook lol because some of their spreads during half time bets are kinda bad to the flow of the game(s)

Since they have to adjust to so many games quickly they probably aren't able to see how every game is going they make some of the spreads based off of the beginning of the game spreads.

Meaning as a better you have a bigger edge if you can find the correct games

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh you are right. I totally misunderstood that.

I've been up since 7 am with the child who was sick last night waking up every hour on the hour. I've been doing things like yard work and building furniture to keep me occupied until kickoff, and I STILL have 2 hours.... ugh I'm READY!

 

[S3mper]

I forgive you =p

 

[OzExorcist]

The only evidence I can find in NO's favor is that Massey-Peabody has the line at NO -4.5, but it's still only a small play for them (since 3 vs. 4.5 isn't much different). The Falcons were decimated by injuries & bad luck (close game record, ect.) last year, and I think the public is discounting what they did in 2012 too much. I think it's at least a stay-away, personally.

Only a single unit on that one - TBH, part of the reason for taking it is because it's one of the few MP picks this week I could see the logic behind. Didn't feel at all comfortable with their pick for Carolina, for example, given their approach to QBs and injuries (ie: they're assuming Newton is both playing and healthy).

With a few late line moves (at least at my sports book) I've since added:

Jac + 10.5
StL - 3

Only half a unit on each though.

 

[TheKid84]

Well this certainly isn't how I wanted to start my season...

My big bets loss, thanks to the Pats sleeping after half time and not scoring a single point. I hated Brady and the pats to begin with, hate them a little more now.

It's like someone just caught their river 2 outer on me.... ugh.

 

[S3mper]

I'll be going down to Mexico and changing my name...

Steelers pissed me off today with a bitter sweet victory after being up big at half itme

 

[TheKid84]

I feel dirty. Cant remember last time I was cleaned out in a week like this...

 

[c9h13no3]

Jac + 10.5

I needed the Jags +10 as well. That was pretty gross.

I'm 2-3 ATS so far (Dal +5, Car +1, Jac +10, Mia +4.5, Bal -2.5). Meht. I still like the thought process I had.