TheKid's Parlay Megathread v2.0

[okeedokalee]

Crazy and fun indeed, I like it!

Hope you score on that one man!

Colin Cowherd has a football show that focuses on some sports betting. They discuss and will point out who the Sharps are on for some specific games. I wrote some of the picks they made, lets see how they would do this week. These are the lines they like:
Den +5.5
Pit +3
Buf -2
Dal -1
NYG -1.5
Cle +2.5
Oak +14
Min +10

He appears to be going rather well here:
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/shows/...zingfive14/colin-cowherd-blazing-five-picks:D

 

[c9h13no3]

Colin's blazing 5 picks are quite good. He's a pretty sharp guy, and thinks about games correctly. He's beaten the spread for a decent clip in the NFL over the long term. You can learn a thing or two about betting by listening to him.

 

[TheKid84]

Colin's blazing 5 picks are quite good. He's a pretty sharp guy, and thinks about games correctly. He's beaten the spread for a decent clip in the NFL over the long term. You can learn a thing or two about betting by listening to him.

Yea, I've always like Colin, and am pretty stoked he's got his show every Sunday prior to the games start. It's something I'll be looking to try and tune into, if the kid allows me to.

Week 4 match ups are as difficult as week 3. Not many stand out as typically would, not a ton of mismatches. Where I got a leg up in Carbon land, Bovada still sucks. Here is where I stand after week 3.

Bovada: -237.60
Carbon: +39.00
Overall - 198.60

Not the start I was looking for, but hopefully can gain some ground with some wins the next couple of weeks. Will post some thoughts on Sundays action probably friday/saturday.

 

[c9h13no3]

Yea, I've always like Colin, and am pretty stoked he's got his show every Sunday prior to the games start. It's something I'll be looking to try and tune into, if the kid allows me to.

Week 4 match ups are as difficult as week 3. Not many stand out as typically would, not a ton of mismatches. Where I got a leg up in Carbon land, Bovada still sucks. Here is where I stand after week 3.

Bovada: -237.60
Carbon: +39.00
Overall - 198.60

Not the start I was looking for, but hopefully can gain some ground with some wins the next couple of weeks. Will post some thoughts on Sundays action probably friday/saturday.

More advice you probably won't listen to: Report your winnings as units or return on investment. Raw dollar amounts don't mean much when you're varying your bet-size like you do.

 

[TheKid84]

Alright people. Here is what I have so far for my bigger bets. I may add a couple smaller value parlays here and there later on, we shall see.

Carbon:
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 83.33 Result: Pending
Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Diego Chargers 09/28/14 16:05 EDT
San Diego Chargers -3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers 09/28/14 13:00 EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts 09/28/14 13:00 EDT
Indianapolis Colts +2

Bovada:
Indianapolis Colts +4 Sep 28/14@01:00p
Competitor: Tennessee Titans
San Diego Chargers -1 Sep 28/14@04:05p
Competitor: Jacksonville Jaguars
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
Over 38 Sep 28/14@04:25p
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Under 60 Sep 28/14@04:25p
Bet $30.00
Win $25.00


New York Jets +15 Sep 28/14@01:00p
Competitor: Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets
Under 58 Sep 28/14@01:00p
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Over 38 Sep 28/14@01:00p
San Diego Chargers -1 Sep 28/14@04:05p
Competitor: Jacksonville Jaguars
Bet US$ 30.00
Win US$ 25.00


Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders
Over 28 Sep 28/14@01:00p
Chicago Bears +15 Sep 28/14@01:00p
Competitor: Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Over 28 Sep 28/14@01:00p
San Diego Chargers -1 Sep 28/14@04:05p
Competitor: Jacksonville Jaguar
Bet US$ 40.00
Win US$ 33.33

GL on your bets out there. Lets win some money money money!!
:ridinghor:ridinghor:ridinghor:ridinghor:ridinghor:ridinghor

 

[pokernut92poker]

i like it, good luck to you and take every penny they got ... lol !! BTW love the teaser!!!

 

[TheKid84]

i like it, good luck to you and take every penny they got ... lol !! BTW love the teaser!!!

Thanks man, will be looking to keep this thread going all NFL season.

If you ever dabble in some betting, feel free to post your bets/thoughts here! GL to you!

 

[TheKid84]

Added one more none teaser from Colin's Blazing 5 picks. Why not, right?

Bovada:
3 Team Parlay
Miami Dolphins -4 Sep 28/14@12:00p
Competitor: Oakland Raiders

Green Bay Packers -2 Sep 28/14@12:00p
Competitor: Chicago Bears

New York Jets +2 Sep 28/14@12:00p
Competitor: Detroit Lions
Bet US$ 5.00
Win US$ 29.84

 

[TheKid84]

Half Time report, lets see where I stand so far:

Alright people. Here is what I have so far for my bigger bets. I may add a couple smaller value parlays here and there later on, we shall see.

Carbon:
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 83.33 Result: Pending
Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Diego Chargers 09/28/14 16:05 EDT
San Diego Chargers -3.5 Late Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers 09/28/14 13:00 EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 Started out slow for Pit thanks to a turnover, but they have responded with defense and 17 unanswered, and hopefully some more before the half.
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts 09/28/14 13:00 EDT
Indianapolis Colts +2 Locker was ruled officially out, and I was officially wishing I had put the colts in more of my bets. I try and stay away from the team I love, but things looking good to pay off this week for me.

Bovada:
Indianapolis Colts +4 Sep 28/14@01:00p
Competitor: Tennessee Titans So far so good, should have at least a 10 point lead at half.
San Diego Chargers -1 Sep 28/14@04:05p
Competitor: Jacksonville Jaguars Late Game
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
Over 38 Sep 28/14@04:25p Late Game
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Under 60 Sep 28/14@04:25p Late Game
Bet $30.00
Win $25.00


New York Jets +15 Sep 28/14@01:00p
Competitor: Detroit Lions This game is getting interesting, yet still boring as it started. Detroit has seemed to find some openings in the Jets secondary. I just need a Det turnover or for their lack of discipline to kick in. I also would like the Jets to score 7, maybe a Vick sighting soon.
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets
Under 58 Sep 28/14@01:00p I would be shocked if I lose this leg... This game is just boring and should stay under this mark.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Over 38 Sep 28/14@01:00p I love it when shootouts become shootouts and legs are already won at the half. Score!
San Diego Chargers -1 Sep 28/14@04:05p
Competitor: Jacksonville Jaguars Late Game.
Bet US$ 30.00
Win US$ 25.00


Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders
Over 28 Sep 28/14@01:00p Webly is getting some points from teams everyone has counted out. 31 already in the first half. Win.
Chicago Bears +15 Sep 28/14@01:00p
Competitor: Green Bay Packers A half ending drive that ended on the 1 would have given the Bears a lead going into the half. This shootout is fun to watch, and if they keep going score for score, the 15 point favor given to the Bears look good. Either team is a turnover away from victory, which usually means 15 points added should look good in my favor.
Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Over 28 Sep 28/14@01:00p Knew Steve Smith would get in the end zone and have a decent day, but he is lighting it up out there. Impressive half for him with two scores and this leg is already a winner for me.
San Diego Chargers -1 Sep 28/14@04:05p
Competitor: Jacksonville Jaguar Late game.
Bet US$ 40.00
Win US$ 33.33

GL on your bets out there. Lets win some money money money!!
:ridinghor:ridinghor:ridinghor:ridinghor:ridinghor:ridinghor

LETS GO LETS GO LETS GO.

 

[TheKid84]

Screw you Pitt, you get away with murder with no calls against you in those last two drives and you still give up the winning TD... you blow...

 

[pfb8888]

use a bet sequence with your teaser bets!

I think it would be more profitable for you as long as you keep your win % over 50%...which u seem to be doing easily on your teaser bets.

if you want to gamble you could use a double up ..

or grind out money with a plus 1 unit on a loss /minus 1 unit with a win?

example----- bet 50 lose ---bet 100 lose----bet 150 win---bet 100 win . you lose twice and win twice but are up $100

 

[woohoo sue]

OMG .....how am i going to bet my 10 dollar free bet? everything i read is GREEK. and it expires on 10/10. I also just won a 5 dollar one on sportsbet, this ^^^^^^^^^looks so complicated.

 

[TheKid84]

This entire season has been absolutely piss poor on my betting. It seems that I have cornered myself into a wall, where if I don't win my two big bets this week, I will be toning down my bet amounts big time and just taking the losses at the end of the year.

Here is where the financials stand to date:
Bovada: -287.60
Carbon: -61.00
Overall - 348.60

Here are the match ups I'll be looking to tease 10 points on this week.
Denver vs ARZ - They both are off their byes, but it's Denver. The lines aren't even out yet on Carbon, and Peyton has always done well after his bye. I'm buying.
DET vs Buf - Det is hosting Buffalo, who is starting their backup QB for the first time this year. Detroit's defense is for real, finally. To top things off, they get a win last week with Calvin being nothing but a decoy. He is already probable, and will be a factor.
Saints vs TB - TB screwed me last week, or Pit did, whatever. Anyways, Saints are typically great at home. I feel like Brees will get back on track and remember he's got a stud TE to throw a ton to. They will come out with the W.
Seattle @ Wash - I know it's a west coast team going to the east, but I have next to no respect for Washington. They are a mess. To top things off, Seattle is coming off an early bye. More prep time + bad team = win.
Cincy @ NE - prob wont pull the trigger on this game, but the Pats are just looking bad. Cincy has looked good so far this year, but I do like other match ups more than this one.

I will prob pull the trigger on a couple bets Friday/Saturday. Weather is starting to happen a bit more as well, so that is something I will be keeping an eye on (hello dome games). Lets finally get a clean sweep weekend... my BR needs it.

 

[c9h13no3]

Line on TheKid84 ever being a profitable sports bettor: +2 million

 

[S3mper]

Line on TheKid84 ever being a profitable sports bettor: +2 million

I'll take $1 on that bet

Since he is currently down 300 let's make it realistic by the end of the season

375 to 1

$1 bet?

 

[OzExorcist]

Saints vs TB - TB screwed me last week, or Pit did, whatever. Anyways, Saints are typically great at home. I feel like Brees will get back on track and remember he's got a stud TE to throw a ton to. They will come out with the W.

So I'm a Saints fan, and obviously they play much better under the dome... but this game has me seriously nervous. Despite all the offseason upgrades the defence has somehow gotten worse, and while they got the home win against Minnesota it wasn't that convincing.

They're at -10 right now, and only getting $1.19 SU... I'm sincerly hoping they prove me wrong, but that all looks pretty ugly to me.

 

[TheKid84]

Line on TheKid84 ever being a profitable sports bettor: +2 million

So if I quit now, that's got me in a profit of my entire 1.5 year 'career' in sports betting. Promise to pay up?

But if I would quit now, then I wouldn't lose in the future. Do you have someone else handy to take enjoyment from their misery? I wouldn't want to leave you hanging...

I'll take $1 on that bet

Since he is currently down 300 let's make it realistic by the end of the season

375 to 1

$1 bet?

Oh you know he wouldn't think about a bet like that...

So I'm a Saints fan, and obviously they play much better under the dome... but this game has me seriously nervous. Despite all the offseason upgrades the defence has somehow gotten worse, and while they got the home win against Minnesota it wasn't that convincing.

They're at -10 right now, and only getting $1.19 SU... I'm sincerly hoping they prove me wrong, but that all looks pretty ugly to me.

The line is getting even bigger. I am not a believer in that Tampa Bay team, especially with the Saints at home. Tampa scores rarely, and typically in garbage time. I just feel like Brees is coming home and is going to start a streak of break out games to possibly save their season.

 

[TheKid84]

Go big or go home, right?

I'm feeling pretty confident this week, so it's now a make it or break it week. If I go down this week then I will probably chalk it up as loses and continue on my marry way elsewhere. But lets not think of it like that. Lets think of the wonderful grounds I will catch up on when these bets win out. And lets think of the wins next week as well to finally pull me out of the negatives. Good news is regardless, I just deposited a withdraw from Bovada this morning. Love only have put up 150 bucks in online gaming over the last 10 years and withdrawing much more than that. Anyways, here are the two big bets this week in my respective bankrolls.

Bovada:
3 Team Teaser
New Orleans Saints -1 Oct 05/14@01:00p
Competitor: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denver Broncos +2½ Oct 05/14@04:05p
Competitor: Arizona Cardinals
San Diego Chargers +3 Oct 05/14@04:25p
Competitor: New York Jets
Bet US$ 150.00
Win US$ 136.36


Carbon:
10 Point Teaser
Bet $ 150.00 to win $ 125.00 Result: Pending
Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos 10/05/14 16:05 EDT
Denver Broncos +2
Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions 10/05/14 13:00 EDT
Detroit Lions +3
New York Jets vs San Diego Chargers 10/05/14 16:25 EDT
San Diego Chargers +3

300 on the line for 266, lets go lets go lets go!!!

 

[TheKid84]

Almost forgot about these crazy ones

Rodgers throws 50 or more TDs - risk $20 to win $2,000 My brother and I went half and half in on this one. It was a long shot obviously, and only about 4 TD's a game from here on out can save it.
Jordy Nelson catches 100 or more catches - risk $1 to win $16 The most realistic to win out of the bunch. This past Thursday night's 1 catch didn't help, but he's is still on pace for 109. Good thing is he gets the short calls as well as the long ones.
Dez Bryant catches 110 or more - risk $1 to win $12 Who would have thought Dal learned how to run? Highly doubt this will happen.
Brandon Marshall to score 15 or more TDs - Risk $1 to win $5 (this was stupid, don't know why I did this one) My preseason 'stupid' one seems to be the second best bet on the list. Small payout, but if this and Jordy happen that would be pretty cool.
LaSean McCoy to catch 5 or more TDs - risk $2 for $20 (I like this one) I need him to have a 2 TD catching game, like this week, for this to have a chance.
Adrian Peterson to catch 5 or more TDs - risk $5 to win $500 (I like this one) With Norv over in Min now, I was really stoked on these odds. But now, one game and he's done for the year, which is unfortunate for I was a big AP fan. His backups have already seen 37 targets and a score. I would think if AP had those 37 targets he would have found the endzone twice. Oh well...
Andrew Luck to rush for more than 400 yards for the season - risk $2 to win $32 (this is the one that will actually hit, putting me at even) I'm torn on this one. Being a Colts fan, Luck has improved immensely. He has grown with his decision making while in the pocket big time from the previous years and it is paying the team big time. Bad news is it's not paying my bet off here. He is still very capable of breaking off a 35 yarder in any game, but he is looking to throw a lot more than run in years past. He will probably end up with 300 by end of year.

 

[TheKid84]

Three OT games in the 1:00 batch and I had to bet on 2 of them... ugh...

Edit: check that, Detroit just has given up the entire second half to lose the game by 3... Way to go Detroit, way to go...

Edit x2: sweated out the Saints victory, but they score 6 and don't even give the Bucs the option to come back. Phew...

 

[TheKid84]

Half time report:

SD is up with a commanding lead, 21-0. I wouldn't be surprised to see Vick in a little bit in the 2nd. I mean if not now, then when right?

Broncos start out with the ball to begin the second half with a 21-13 lead. Peyton has 2 picks, but he also has 3 TD's. Things look pretty good for Den to win, especially if Peyton puts up 7 on the first drive in the 2nd.

LETS GO LETS GO LETS GO!!

Edit: I never wish harm on any of the players, but when money is on the line, I love seeing backup QB's in, and they're both in for the opposing teams. Giddyup!!

 

[TheKid84]

Go big or go home, right?

I'm feeling pretty confident this week, so it's now a make it or break it week. If I go down this week then I will probably chalk it up as loses and continue on my marry way elsewhere. But lets not think of it like that. Lets think of the wonderful grounds I will catch up on when these bets win out. And lets think of the wins next week as well to finally pull me out of the negatives. Good news is regardless, I just deposited a withdraw from Bovada this morning. Love only have put up 150 bucks in online gaming over the last 10 years and withdrawing much more than that. Anyways, here are the two big bets this week in my respective bankrolls.

Bovada:
3 Team Teaser
New Orleans Saints -1 Oct 05/14@01:00p
Competitor: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denver Broncos +2½ Oct 05/14@04:05p
Competitor: Arizona Cardinals
San Diego Chargers +3 Oct 05/14@04:25p
Competitor: New York Jets
Bet US$ 150.00
Win US$ 136.36


Carbon:
10 Point Teaser
Bet $ 150.00 to win $ 125.00 Result: Pending
Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos 10/05/14 16:05 EDT
Denver Broncos +2
Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions 10/05/14 13:00 EDT
Detroit Lions +3
New York Jets vs San Diego Chargers 10/05/14 16:25 EDT
San Diego Chargers +3

300 on the line for 266, lets go lets go lets go!!!

Thanks in large part to Detroits kicker missing all 3 FG attempts in a freaking dome, my push gets logged as a loss. Their complete collapse in the second half was pathetic, at best. At least I got one of them to pay me off. Unfortunately it looks like I will be sticking to just Bovada betting instead of bringing in Carbon. I wont be able to include the Thursday games, for the rest of the lines wont be out by then, but I will be able to include some over/unders. Here are where the financials stand:

Bovada: -151.24
Carbon: -211.00
Overall - 362.24

Will prob just stick with the overall losses/wins for I will only be on Bovada from here on out. Going to have to bink some poker games to get the BR back up in Carbon again. Here's to next week :ridinghor

 

[TheKid84]

Haven't had a lot of opportunity to research the games this week, for my family and I are on the opposite side of the states for a mini vacation. Have been doing a lot of playing with the baby and not a lot of sports watching. With sticking on one bankroll, I will be only doing one big bet this week. Here's my 3 leg 10 point teaser for this week:

3 Team Teaser
Denver Broncos Pick Oct 12/14@01:00p
Competitor: New York Jets

San Diego Chargers +2½ Oct 12/14@04:05p
Competitor: Oakland Raiders

Seattle Seahawks +1 Oct 12/14@04:25p
Competitor: Dallas Cowboys

Bet US$ 150.00
Win US$ 136.36

 

[S3mper]

Dallas wins the game out right tomorrow

Yup you heard it here first.

 

[TheKid84]

Dallas wins the game out right tomorrow

Yup you heard it here first.

I know they are a "new" team with this running game they have, but Romo will be taken out completely due to the 90% chance rain/wind.

The way I see it, Seattle Offense > Dallas Defense, and Seattle Defense > Dallas Offense minus their pass game. Even with their pass game, I like Seattle at home outright, but the rain is the icing on the cake for me.

LETS GO LETS GO LETS GO!!