NFL Betting Thread 2019/2020

[ribbybruno]

Welcome to the NFL 2019/2020 Betting Thread!

Post your wagers in this thread. Who has the winning edge picking Pro Football?
Share hot tips or data so we all can win! Anyone who can out pick me throughout the season and participate in this thread will receive a prize from me! ( $$) Good luck all!
__________________


CRStals was the best picker last season with a stellar 48-36 record! I personally invite you back for another go at it. Time to defend!


Ribby Stats -


2017/2018 NFL Season (32-27-4)


2018/2019 NFL Season (37-32-1)


Let's have some fun!

 

[Risto234]

New season starts somewhere in september right (honestly i have no idea) ...

 

[Synopsis]

I think the first game is on the 5th, preseason started yesterday. I'm not a big fan of a 5 week preseason, I wasn't a fan of a 4 week preseason for that matter.

New season starts somewhere in september right (honestly i have no idea) ...

 

[ribbybruno]

[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]Final Standings 2018/2019
[/FONT]

[FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif][FONT=NotoSans, Lato, arial, sans-serif]Davey Dave (14-15-1)
CRStals (48-36)
ribbybruno (37-32-1)
Garshym (3-2)
Risto (16-12)
Ivansito (1-1-1)
we will rock you (3-6)[/FONT][/FONT]
theothermj (19-10-1)
TH13Gambler (2-3)
TDTODDY (28-24-1)
keontayB (3-2)
p86 (1-1)
saulgood4me (0-3)
ChickenArise (2-2)
rdog1797 (3-5)
Atrevino247 (1-1)
JJP (1-1)
skaterick (1-1)
Aslachiewicz (1-1)
WhiskeyFix (1-0)
RutgersOneTime (1-0)

Kept the stats to show how you fared last year. Good luck all!

 

[imhighhommie]

I hit on my pre-season bet last night Looking forward to the regular season! Best of luck this year Ribby!

 

[ribbybruno]

I hit on my pre-season bet last night Looking forward to the regular season! Best of luck this year Ribby!

Great job! Best of luck to you as well!

 

[OzExorcist]

Huh - a few of you ran good last year, nice work

I'm waiting for my books to post season-long props, Australian books don't seem to be in any hurry to get them up. Only bet I've got on so far is half a unit on Philly to win the Superbowl at $17

 

[TDTODDY]

I can't wait for the season to start. Go Eagles.

 

[Risto234]

I guess i'll continue using same method in NFL as i use in handball - pick games where over line is (way too) low

So first 2 picks from me:
Miami Dolphins - Baltimore Ravens; over 37.5 @1.91
NY Jets - Buffalo Bills; over 40.0 @1.91

Both odds are from william hill and i believe these games are on the same day when Cardchat celebrates 15th anniversary

 

[ChickenArise]

Week 1:

My strongest play is Baltimore Ravens -5 (locked in at 5, now up to 6' some places. Take up to 6')

Best dog: Buffalo Bills outright @ +140

If we are keeping score include both of these sides as lined side bets (Ravens -5, Bills +3)

Parlay Odds @ +2266 :

Chicago Bears -3,
Buffalo Bills @ +140 (money line),
Baltimore Ravens-5,
KC Chiefs @-188 (money line),
Los Angeles Chargers @ -275 [FONT=Roboto Condensed, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif](money line), [/FONT]
Dallas Cowboys @ -275 [FONT=Roboto Condensed, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif](money line)[/FONT]

 

[imhighhommie]

Bears -3

Lets gooo! So pumped for Thursday action!

 

[Synopsis]

Bears are one of the lines that looks fishy to me. I bet it yesterday, but I think it should be higher, -5.5 at minimal but it's been sitting at -3 the whole time. The books are keeping it at 3 even though it's been heavy juice all day, just makes it seem more fishy.

The rams line seems fishy too. It's down to -2.5.

 

[Synopsis]

I'm thinking of going bears first half even though the line is almost the same as the full game line. My thoughts are if the pack win, it will be a late game comeback, which Rodgers isn't a stranger to. Last year, and the bears defence is pretty much the exact set up, only gave up double digits once at home in the first half, and that was to brady. They were also the highest point differential in the first half in the league at 127. Makes the first half line look really good. I'll bite on it at -2.5 since I can't really argue with those statistics.

 

[ChickenArise]

Bears are one of the lines that looks fishy to me. I bet it yesterday, but I think it should be higher, -5.5 at minimal but it's been sitting at -3 the whole time. The books are keeping it at 3 even though it's been heavy juice all day, just makes it seem more fishy.

The rams line seems fishy too. It's down to -2.5.

Its a divisional game and the Packers have had some success in the past vs. the Bears. The Packers are often a betting public favorite. I dont see anything fishy about this line. Its where it should be.

 

[Synopsis]

It's fishy that it hasn't moved even though it's been heavy juice for 2 solid days. Books make money by having even money on both sides, and absorbing the juice. Bear have been -120 juice on the spread for 2 days, that doesn't seem fishy to you?

Its a divisional game and the Packers have had some success in the past vs. the Bears. The Packers are often a betting public favorite. I dont see anything fishy about this line. Its where it should be.

 

[ChickenArise]

0

It's fishy that it hasn't moved even though it's been heavy juice for 2 solid days. Books make money by having even money on both sides, and absorbing the juice. Bear have been -120 juice on the spread for 2 days, that doesn't seem fishy to you?

You have a misconception that books attempt to balance out the line to reduce exposure to a side. Exposure often cannot be avoided and they will have it more often than not. If they thought they could put a line out that would take advantage of the betting public they would do so and would happily take plenty of exposure on the sharp side.

They are more afraid of being middled than anything else. 3 and 4 are key numbers in football which can open them up to having to pay one side while pushing on the other or worse yet having to pay both sides, so it takes a lot before they will move from this line and rarely will it cross over late as this increases their risk of being middled. They would rather move the juice to encourage or discourage action than have this line cross many key numbers.

Also syndicates have been know to bet large amounts early to influence a line move in one direction and then come back and pound the other side with an even larger amount of money after a line move is triggered. The books are aware of this arbitrage and risk less by taking a firm position on the game and moving the juice instead.

If they do feel the need to cross a key number this will happen early but rarely will it ever happen late with key numbers unless they can assure damage control.

Dont expect it to move at this point, no matter how much money comes in on either side.

 

[ChickenArise]

David Montgomery is a beast that is fun to watch find a hole and maneuver through it! I hope the kicking woes are over for the Bears, at least for tonight.

I am finally starting to see some line movement supporting my upset pick of the week, the Bufallo Bills vs. Jets. Hope you guys got it at +140 or +3

 

[Synopsis]

That's not a misconception, they want the total on both sides as close to one another as they can get them on average, that's why lines move. Does a little bookie have to do it differently, absolutely, but a established book is trying to keep it even. As a example look back when mayweather put 2 million on Michigan. The line went up 3 points instantly even though just about every sharp in the world agreed on alabama. I get what you're saying, and you're kind of agreeing with me by saying if they thought they could have agreeing advantage, they would let it lay. That.... looks like a fishy line then, like I said above. At least it was fishy to me, they wanted money on the packers, and look how the Packers are performing. We just don't agree it was fishy is all.

0

You have a misconception that books attempt to balance out the line to reduce exposure to a side. Exposure often cannot be avoided and they will have it more often than not. If they thought they could put a line out that would take advantage of the betting public they would do so and would happily take plenty of exposure on the sharp side.

They are more afraid of being middled than anything else. 3 and 4 are key numbers in football which can open them up to having to pay one side while pushing on the other or worse yet having to pay both sides, so it takes a lot before they will move from this line and rarely will it cross over late as this increases their risk of being middled. They would rather move the juice to encourage or discourage action than have this line cross many key numbers.

Also syndicates have been know to bet large amounts early to influence a line move in one direction and then come back and pound the other side with an even larger amount of money after a line move is triggered. The books are aware of this arbitrage and risk less by taking a firm position on the game and moving the juice instead.

If they do feel the need to cross a key number this will happen early but rarely will it ever happen late with key numbers unless they can assure damage control.

Dont expect it to move at this point, no matter how much money comes in on either side.

 

[Synopsis]

That kid hit the fg but was so pumped up he hit it out on the kickoff, haha. Was cool to see in a weird way.

I've not been looking at the Jets game, to me, darnold is unpredictable, he can be god for a game, or be the worst in the game the next game. My luck, if I got on it, he would have 900 yards so it's probably best for you that I pass on it, haha.

David Montgomery is a beast that is fun to watch find a hole and maneuver through it! I hope the kicking woes are over for the Bears, at least for tonight.

I am finally starting to see some line movement supporting my upset pick of the week, the Bufallo Bills vs. Jets. Hope you guys got it at +140 or +3

 

[Synopsis]

The dbs on that drive... some of the worst play I've seen in a while. Gave them a free 7.

 

[Synopsis]

Hopped on the second half line. That half reminded me a lot of the Oregon auburn game

 

[ChickenArise]

Hopped on the second half line. That half reminded me a lot of the Oregon auburn game

Bears offense looks like a bunch of rusty clowns in a second rate circus. They have a great running back yet they are throwing the ball every down. First and 40. Hope you took the 2nd half under.

 

[Synopsis]

Yeah, was a pretty poorly coached game on the bears part after the first half of the first quarter. I'm going to end 1-2 for the night, better than 0-3 I guess. Still kinda mad on that td they gave up, and the play prior to it, just really bad db play. I took the Packers +3.5 second half, I almost played the under, but talked myself out of it. Rodgers was looking on fire, and I figured that the bears would play more open and uptempo to keep pace, so I passed on the second half total.

I just hate when you have the perfect reasons to make a bet, and it comes through, yet it still loses (bears first half).

 

[ChickenArise]

Time to rebuild all my parlays that had Chicago in them. I include them in this forum for fun not as official selections.

I think I got graded for a loss on a parlay in this forum last year but there is nothing at stake here so whatever.

I guess I need to be more specific going forward. I hope I was clear that I had 2 selections ATS this week.

 

[Synopsis]

I was almost right there with you. Look at the college betting thread. I almost made a bunch of smaller parlays with Chicago as the base since I'd be able to buy out easy live and still profit if Chicago came through. I scratched the idea about a hour before the game started.

What do you think of the rams line? I can't figure out why everyone isn't on it. It looks like one of the best bets of the week in NFL and ncaa (I kinda group those together).

Time to rebuild all my parlays that had Chicago in them. I include them in this forum for fun not as official selections.

I think I got graded for a loss on a parlay in this forum last year but there is nothing at stake here so whatever.

I guess I need to be more specific going forward. I hope I was clear that I had 2 selections ATS this week.