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Yeah, well there was nowhere to go for Denver but up, and nowhere for the kings to go but down, in terms of shooting. Kings had a perfect first half besides the rebounding. It's evening out now. Hopefully Denver sustain their defence and I don't have to buy out, but so close to the end now, with a close score, I'd have to buy out sooner rather than later to have a safe buy out. We will see.
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I could buy out right now for almost even. Live line on the kings is +7 @-101. I'm going to let it ride for now though and hope Denver keeps the defence up like last quarter. I really wish they would slow it down though and let the big guys post up more.
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Man... miracle wins.
Let's be honest here... I tried to buy out after Denver went up 12, after that time out the kings scored 5 points in like 10 seconds. The live line was -7. And before I could even put in the digits, it came down. It never came back up again. I thought I was in for a huge loss after that. Those free throws at the end saved me. 2-0, and one large bet.
Heart attack game there. I'm not sure why they stopped taking bets on it with over 4 minutes left. Usually in a close game they leave it up until about a minute. In hind sight, it made me a lot of money, but in the moment, I thought I was about to take a big loss.
Let's be honest here... I tried to buy out after Denver went up 12, after that time out the kings scored 5 points in like 10 seconds. The live line was -7. And before I could even put in the digits, it came down. It never came back up again. I thought I was in for a huge loss after that. Those free throws at the end saved me. 2-0, and one large bet.
Heart attack game there. I'm not sure why they stopped taking bets on it with over 4 minutes left. Usually in a close game they leave it up until about a minute. In hind sight, it made me a lot of money, but in the moment, I thought I was about to take a big loss.
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I didn't feel good about it either after the live bets went down, but we cashed it man. Congrats on a stressful win. :wink:
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I didn't think about it, but since there is no break in the nba, I suppose I'll do my results on mondays (early Tuesday really) since I do it after Monday night football and use that as my week to week in nba.
8-2 this week. Only losses were day 1, both on the lakers. Pretty awesome week, made my first large play in like 2 years and won easy, then made another just a few days later, which if you read above... was not as easy of a time, but it came through. As I've said before, I'm not a big fan of going large on games, I think you should stick to 1-2.5 units per game, but I also think if something pops up, and you have money to buy out, then take a shot at it. I also believe in progressive increments. In nba, I do 100 as a unit. In football (both ncaaf and nfl) I started at 150 this season, and have moved up to 400. I use a formula as my starting point, and a formula for increasing. I never increase in less than a 2 week span regardless of profit margin. Even with the 2 large plays, ill stay at 100 in the nba for another week. That's just my advice to anyone reading this. Not trying to toot my own horn, but I do this for a living for almost 15 years, and 6+ years before that I did it hoping to make a living from it but made every mistake in the book. I was underage at that time, so maybe it was immaturity, but regardless I learned the hard way. Im just trying to stress the point now, because I don't want anyone seeing my record in ncaaf, or nfl, and see me make a large play and they tail me, and lose. Play in your budget, and don't listen to touts. Research in depth and go by what you feel from the information and your own gut. Don't "fade the public" and such.
Again, sorry that was a long babble, I just don't want anyone having a bad run to see a large play being made and think it's going to get them out of the hole because whoever made the play has a good record.
8-2 this week. Only losses were day 1, both on the lakers. Pretty awesome week, made my first large play in like 2 years and won easy, then made another just a few days later, which if you read above... was not as easy of a time, but it came through. As I've said before, I'm not a big fan of going large on games, I think you should stick to 1-2.5 units per game, but I also think if something pops up, and you have money to buy out, then take a shot at it. I also believe in progressive increments. In nba, I do 100 as a unit. In football (both ncaaf and nfl) I started at 150 this season, and have moved up to 400. I use a formula as my starting point, and a formula for increasing. I never increase in less than a 2 week span regardless of profit margin. Even with the 2 large plays, ill stay at 100 in the nba for another week. That's just my advice to anyone reading this. Not trying to toot my own horn, but I do this for a living for almost 15 years, and 6+ years before that I did it hoping to make a living from it but made every mistake in the book. I was underage at that time, so maybe it was immaturity, but regardless I learned the hard way. Im just trying to stress the point now, because I don't want anyone seeing my record in ncaaf, or nfl, and see me make a large play and they tail me, and lose. Play in your budget, and don't listen to touts. Research in depth and go by what you feel from the information and your own gut. Don't "fade the public" and such.
Again, sorry that was a long babble, I just don't want anyone having a bad run to see a large play being made and think it's going to get them out of the hole because whoever made the play has a good record.
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Also while I'm thinking about it, we should be sharing our information on games, even if you're not on the game. We have a resource in each other and sadly I've not seen much actual discussion in the other threads on actual games. For the most part people just say their picks. How silly is it to have a community that enjoys and bets on specific sports, yet no discussion happens on it. We are missing out by not taking advantage of that. In ncaaf, it's really just me and ribby. In nfl it's just people saying their picks, I don't even put my picks in there anymore because of that. Let's share our knowledge on the games, give our thoughts on our own picks, and give your opinion on other people's leans. Strength in numbers.
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Leans for tonight
Kind of feeling Atlanta +8. I think these teams are within range of each other, meaning if they played 100 times, I think it would be close to 50/50. I think the line is inflated because butler is going to be playing for the first time this year. Well... that could be a bad thing for miami also. It could throw their chemistry off. Keep in mind it's his first year there, so it's not like he is coming back to where he was prior. Atlanta has good defence, and having 8 points seems like a tad too much. I think the public is moving this line up, so I'll keep an eye on it.
Kind of feeling Denver after last night's poor play. I like a team that plays terrible, yet still covers. Shows they have grit. They play well at home, they play well on back to backs. Their last games were polar opposites. Dallas had a 15 point lead after the first quarter, and still lost at home. Denver was down double digits in the first half, and won by 7. Like I said, I like that grit. It's in denver, so thinner air also. Bottom line is I like how they match up to the mavericks 2 man team. Kristaps has to deal with jokic, plumtree, or millsap pretty much the whole game and needless to say, I think they keep him from being a big factor. Dallas will have to have a few people step up outside of their big 2, and I don't see that happening. The over looks good also, I can't picture denver shooting that poorly again, especially at home.
Lakers... you get the feeling that the Lakers are starting to gel, or at least I have that feeling. Far from being gelled on the whole, but it's starting to form. They have been home for are week, so no travel worries or lag. The grizzlies had a big game against the nets, and won in overtime but..... I think the Nets are overrated big time. Nets gave up 127 or more in 2 of their 3 games. The other game they gave up 109 to the knicks, while at home. That's also the Nets only win. That said, what Memphis did last game means nothing to me here. Half of their roster have 1 year of experience or are rookies, I just don't see them matching up well here. It's a lot of points to lay, but I'd be on the Lakers if I do. Again this over looks good.
Kind of feeling Atlanta +8. I think these teams are within range of each other, meaning if they played 100 times, I think it would be close to 50/50. I think the line is inflated because butler is going to be playing for the first time this year. Well... that could be a bad thing for miami also. It could throw their chemistry off. Keep in mind it's his first year there, so it's not like he is coming back to where he was prior. Atlanta has good defence, and having 8 points seems like a tad too much. I think the public is moving this line up, so I'll keep an eye on it.
Kind of feeling Denver after last night's poor play. I like a team that plays terrible, yet still covers. Shows they have grit. They play well at home, they play well on back to backs. Their last games were polar opposites. Dallas had a 15 point lead after the first quarter, and still lost at home. Denver was down double digits in the first half, and won by 7. Like I said, I like that grit. It's in denver, so thinner air also. Bottom line is I like how they match up to the mavericks 2 man team. Kristaps has to deal with jokic, plumtree, or millsap pretty much the whole game and needless to say, I think they keep him from being a big factor. Dallas will have to have a few people step up outside of their big 2, and I don't see that happening. The over looks good also, I can't picture denver shooting that poorly again, especially at home.
Lakers... you get the feeling that the Lakers are starting to gel, or at least I have that feeling. Far from being gelled on the whole, but it's starting to form. They have been home for are week, so no travel worries or lag. The grizzlies had a big game against the nets, and won in overtime but..... I think the Nets are overrated big time. Nets gave up 127 or more in 2 of their 3 games. The other game they gave up 109 to the knicks, while at home. That's also the Nets only win. That said, what Memphis did last game means nothing to me here. Half of their roster have 1 year of experience or are rookies, I just don't see them matching up well here. It's a lot of points to lay, but I'd be on the Lakers if I do. Again this over looks good.
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Skipped on the Atlanta/Miami game but I just played denver since the lines dropped a tad. Lakers line shows no signs of moving so far. I'm not playing it unless it drops a solid point.
Also I've already played clippers +2 tomorrow, and bucks -1.5 tomorrow I'd take the Clippers as dogs against anyone except maybe the bucks, and maybe the Lakers further into the season. I'd take the bucks -2 against anyone except the Clippers at home, lakers, and maybe denver at home.
Also I've already played clippers +2 tomorrow, and bucks -1.5 tomorrow I'd take the Clippers as dogs against anyone except maybe the bucks, and maybe the Lakers further into the season. I'd take the bucks -2 against anyone except the Clippers at home, lakers, and maybe denver at home.
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ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
Monday (1-2) -$120/ -1.20 Units Overall (8-8) -.80/ -.80 Units
Recap - Warriors woke up with Green showing the way (0-1) Suns played tough and almost got the win (1-0) Clippers lose spread with last second shot
(0-1)
Tuesday -
Miami (-8) @ Home vs Atlanta - Hawks playing last night should run out of gas by 4th
Dallas (+5.5) @ Denver - Mavericks much improved on a day rest with Nuggets playing back to back
Lakers (-12) @ Home vs Grizzlies - Showtime with Lebron and Morant headlining
1 Unit Each - $100
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Recap - Warriors woke up with Green showing the way (0-1) Suns played tough and almost got the win (1-0) Clippers lose spread with last second shot
(0-1)Tuesday -
Miami (-8) @ Home vs Atlanta - Hawks playing last night should run out of gas by 4th
Dallas (+5.5) @ Denver - Mavericks much improved on a day rest with Nuggets playing back to back
Lakers (-12) @ Home vs Grizzlies - Showtime with Lebron and Morant headlining
1 Unit Each - $100
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ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
I do wish the NFL thread had more information. I barely have time to post on Sundays with so much going on sometimes it is just my picks. I really do value your say in the thread and all the threads you participate in for that matter. Great information! Following you is an adventure in itself with all the action you have flying around!
I will try and post more myself in these threads if I run across any valuable tidbits. Appreciate you!
ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
I really want to see how the Mavericks play in a tough game with Porzingis on the road
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Seems like a bad spot for him, on the road with plumtree, Millsap, and jokic on him all game. That's the main reason I bet the other side. If he plays well, they could win, but for me it seems like a lot to ask of him since he will have those 3's attention.
ribbybruno
Skadoosh!!
Loyaler
Exactly! Time to earn that money!
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That was the most entertaining half I've seen so far. Really good game. Something I noticed yesterday that I'm noticing more tonight is that Denver does a bunch of silly shooting fouls. They had 2 of them in the first 40 seconds of the game alone. They also had one with 0.4 seconds left in the half. I understand why, they are aggressive defensively, but that's are lot of free points they are really giving.
Half line is 3. I'm going to bet it because the full line is less than that and if I should have to buy out, it would cover that too. As long as it stays close, should be plenty of spots to buy out.
Lakers line is finally starting to move, and the over in that game is starting to crash. I hope those trends continue over the next 20 minutes before tip off.
Edit... that second half over seems a little low too. It went up half a point, but it's juiced on the other side. If it goes back down that half point then I'll get on it.
Half line is 3. I'm going to bet it because the full line is less than that and if I should have to buy out, it would cover that too. As long as it stays close, should be plenty of spots to buy out.
Lakers line is finally starting to move, and the over in that game is starting to crash. I hope those trends continue over the next 20 minutes before tip off.
Edit... that second half over seems a little low too. It went up half a point, but it's juiced on the other side. If it goes back down that half point then I'll get on it.
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Really good game so far from a entertainment standpoint. Denver keeps letting Dallas hang around with these shoot fouls. They could easily be up 15 or so without the skills fouls. Only need a 41 point 4th quarter to hit the over.
Edit... Denver have gave up 4 and 1 plays in a row.. I wasn't joking around about their shooting fouls. Geez. Their lead vanished real quick.
Edit... Denver have gave up 4 and 1 plays in a row.. I wasn't joking around about their shooting fouls. Geez. Their lead vanished real quick.
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Damn, 1-2 in the Denver game. Was hoping they hit that 3 to go to overtime. Didn't buy out either, as there was no spot to except... when Denver called that last timeout the live bet was a error. It had the odds on the wrong teams. Dallas was +556, but when I noticed it, it got taken off the board. Oh well.
I played Lakers and the over in a tease, but it's not looking good so far either. Lakers are straight up losing, and not many points are being scored.
Edit... after looking over the stats I'm going to live bet the lakers. There is no way they keep shooting that cold. They are only losing by 3, while shooting 30 percent, and 8 percent (yes, really) from 3 point range.
Edit again... so they scored 4 real quick before half and are up 2 at home... to a average at best team, whole shooting 7.7 percent from 3, and low 30 percent overall, and the line is only 6???? I'm about to get way too invested in this game but I can't pass that line up.
I played Lakers and the over in a tease, but it's not looking good so far either. Lakers are straight up losing, and not many points are being scored.
Edit... after looking over the stats I'm going to live bet the lakers. There is no way they keep shooting that cold. They are only losing by 3, while shooting 30 percent, and 8 percent (yes, really) from 3 point range.
Edit again... so they scored 4 real quick before half and are up 2 at home... to a average at best team, whole shooting 7.7 percent from 3, and low 30 percent overall, and the line is only 6???? I'm about to get way too invested in this game but I can't pass that line up.
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They can't guard Anthony davis. They went from being down 3, to up 19 in like 6 minutes, and it's mostly davis free throws. They keep fouling him. He is 24 of 25 on free throws now. Insane.
Edit.. 26 of 27 now... Davis is saving my whole night man, hell yeah.
Edit.. 26 of 27 now... Davis is saving my whole night man, hell yeah.
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Hell yeah. You're having a good night too. Unless something drastic happens you will be 3-0. Nice job!!