Yeah, probably that.
I really can't see him continuing racing unless it's with a top, respectable team and there aren't many of those kind of seats left for next season. Off the top of my head, this makes all the seats at Mercedes and McLaren locked up for next year... same at Red Bull too? That only leaves the potential for Massa's seat at Ferrari when it comes to Schumi-caliber teams (other than Lotus/Renault, maybe?)
The other big question in my mind now is dammit, who else could we replace Massa with?!? As great as I think he's been for the team, I think it's clearly time we replace him and up until now I'd figured Perez was going to be the one to do that job...