So after watching a bunch of tape and doing even more reading... I still have NFI who's gonna win out of Mendes or McGregor.
A lot of people seem to think that Mendes will just take McGregor down and have his way with him. I'm not entirely sure it'll play out that way, for a few reasons. One is we've never really seen McGregor's takedown defense - I can't imagine it's something he's ignored though, so it's
possible we'll see some Jedrzejczyk v Esparza style stuffing going on. Another is that I'm not entirely sure Mendes isn't the kind of wrestler who's fallen in love with his striking to the point where he may not go to his wrestling early and often like people expect him to...
That said, McGregor has proven at least a little hittable in his previous UFC fights and if Mendes
does get him down it could be a long, boring night. He showed signs of a very good top game in the Holloway fight, solid guard passes etc. But like his takedown defense, we've never seen his bottom game so who knows how he'd do with Mendes on top of him.
This breakdown of the fight from Jack Slack is excellent, FWIW, if anyone's up for a longer read:
http://fightland.vice.com/blog/judg...-honest-look-at-conor-mcgregor-vs-chad-mendes