Collin Moshman
Poker Expert
Silver Level
Just a follow up. Given that the 5 % of effective stack rule seems to have quite a bit of padding, are there times when you might want to bend the rule and take less than 20 to 1 on a spec hand? Also, how much of the padding is due to the fact that you lose sometimes when you make your set and how much due to the fact that sometimes you hit and don't get paid? This might play a part in when you might want to bend the rule. Take the first part - you make your set but you lose. One of the ways you could lose is someone having a higher set, so the higher your pair maybe the more you might want to bend the rule. With the second part, against bluffy splashier players who are likely to fall into your trap if you hit your set or against players who can't fold if they hit their A you also might want to bend the rule a little. Also on tough tables where one of your best chances to get ahead might be to hit a set, should you bend the rule? Then what about multiple players in a hand? Are you more likely to accept worse odds because there is a better chance that you will win at least one persons stack and possibly more than one stack if you hit? Would love to know your thoughts, even if it's "no you shouldn't bend the rule cause you will get yourself in trouble" ha ha.
Nice follow-up questions and you make some great points here
With higher pairs, you're not really set-mining most of the time, so I wouldn't apply this rule. But generally speaking, yes you should absolutely bend it.
For example, if one maniac raised and another called, I would call with 22 in the big blind getting 10:1 implied since it's so likely that we get paid off when we hit our set. (And the chance that a maniac has us beat is so low given how wide their ranges are.)
So while 20:1 is a solid guideline, if you have a good reason to bend it, then go for it!