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mycophile
Rock Star
Silver Level
It's a bit of both on any given night. But if you repeatedly win (like people with multiple bracelets), there's obviously skill involved. Often times when someone will compare poker to "gambling," I just give the ol' lottery ticket metaphor- You can't force a scratch off to win. However, you can get the best hand to fold. There's a difference.
kolecgoclaw
Legend
Silver Level
of course, that without skills will not get far, but ...
Today I played a tournament of surprises and wonders
))))
I think all day I have some bad, but when your pair of aces beats a stupid 23 - smashing ...
pair of kings loses to a pair of 5 and similar stuff.
if you play gradually Floop, turn, river -u still can do something (not always) but if someone in front of you gives allin and you have aces - how not check???
skills are necessary, but lucky too
Today I played a tournament of surprises and wonders
)))) I think all day I have some bad, but when your pair of aces beats a stupid 23 - smashing ...
pair of kings loses to a pair of 5 and similar stuff.
if you play gradually Floop, turn, river -u still can do something (not always) but if someone in front of you gives allin and you have aces - how not check???
skills are necessary, but lucky too
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ianarthurz
Rising Star
Bronze Level
Poker is all about luck. Skill is a myth, convince me not
If you don't agree, explain how one raises preflop with AJ, flops JJx, get raised by a sucker with J10(and go all in knowing the sucker got kicker problems) and loses to a sucker with J10 rivering 10, and you wanna tell me it's skill, i see no skill in lucking out here. I believe people are paid to be at the final table in WSOP, Doyle Brunson is an ACTOR just like Negreanu and everyone else!!!!!
If you don't agree, explain how one raises preflop with AJ, flops JJx, get raised by a sucker with J10(and go all in knowing the sucker got kicker problems) and loses to a sucker with J10 rivering 10, and you wanna tell me it's skill, i see no skill in lucking out here. I believe people are paid to be at the final table in WSOP, Doyle Brunson is an ACTOR just like Negreanu and everyone else!!!!!
Carl Trooper
Degenerate Idiot
Silver Level
I am going to assume you are just angry about the hand and can't be serious about that last comment.
Listen dude, I have taken probably 10x more bad beats than you, and generally run WELL below EV unfortunately, but its about making the right decisions over and over and over.
The last 48 hours in 14 SNG's / MTTs I was a 70-90% favorite in 14 all ins and lost EVERYONE. It happens! It sucks!
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nykaktak
Rock Star
Silver Level
yes also everything simply wasn't lucky, it is poker there can be everything, you want to tell never won with a weak hand? or your KK didn't win against AA of other player? ? stop to cry)
BluffMeAllIn
4evrInmyheart RIP xoxo :(
Silver Level
If you don't agree,
certainly disagree
explain how one raises preflop with AJ, flops JJx, get raised by a sucker with J10(and go all in knowing the sucker got kicker problems) and loses to a sucker with J10 rivering 10, and you wanna tell me it's skill, i see no skill in lucking out here.
yes that would be ul, but take that flop with those hands and run it 1000 times and the AJ will prevail ~88% of the time
I believe people are paid to be at the final table in WSOP, Doyle Brunson is an ACTOR just like Negreanu and everyone else!!!!!
they usually get paid quite well for making it to a ft in wsop events, thats where the biggest cashes in mtt's are so its a fact everyone is paid to be there BUT no they are not actors they are skilled (and some lucky) enough to make it to the ft and therefore get paid for being there (you know the prize monies)
bad beats suck but they happen, it gets to everone sometimes and we just have to build a thicker skin and try and eliminate the reasons why such a thing tilts us when we know we should expect them to some % based on the math involved and probabilities etc.
Anyhow enough of my rant, we all know its skill long term and its the players who think its all luck that will pad our br's.
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ianarthurz
Rising Star
Bronze Level
I believe it's 50/50 no matter how good you are. Especially heads-up, for instance the bad beat i took today in a cash game in bovada(0.2/0.5 nl):
I was dealt AJ off on the button, since i had no raises and 3 callers i raised it 4x the BB, 1 folded, 2 called.
Flop comes J-J-x(lower than jack) rainbow, villain raises 0.35c, now, so he either flopped a rag set, a rag pair or he had a jack or just straight up bluffing, no he way he could have JJ, so i put him on J-something and re-raised all in, he calls, his hand: J-10 offsuited
The river? You bet!! 10 !!!!
So based on this experience i can say it's 50/50.
I was dealt AJ off on the button, since i had no raises and 3 callers i raised it 4x the BB, 1 folded, 2 called.
Flop comes J-J-x(lower than jack) rainbow, villain raises 0.35c, now, so he either flopped a rag set, a rag pair or he had a jack or just straight up bluffing, no he way he could have JJ, so i put him on J-something and re-raised all in, he calls, his hand: J-10 offsuited
The river? You bet!! 10 !!!!
So based on this experience i can say it's 50/50.
BluffMeAllIn
4evrInmyheart RIP xoxo :(
Silver Level
lmao, ok obv you don't believe in math/statistics/probabilities etc. AJ vs JT on a JJx board the JT has 3 outs to win (TTT) based on basic 2/4 rule thats a 12% chance that he will win the hand by the river. Thats 88/12 not 50/50.
Also if your going to raise the limpers you should do 3xbb + 1bb for each limper so 6x as opposed to 4x would have been a more correct raise or even 5x to drop it in the middle. Making it 4x into a 4.5xbb (assuming your not sb or bb) pot is giving them decent odds to call the 3bb (3bb to a 8.5bb pot, so almost 3 to 1) and especially the 2nd limper that called given he now has to call 3bb into a 10.5bb pot so like 3.7 to 1.
Anyhow, its just the game we all love called poker good sir. enjoy
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ianarthurz
Rising Star
Bronze Level
So based on what you said you are ignoring the fact there is also another 3 Aces that could have rivered as well? Elaborate how this is not a bad beat please. Explain to me why a 10 and not an ace, or anything else other than a 10 or Ace. As far as i know, J-J-x rainbow is pretty much a perfect flop for AJ(unless you want to ignore probability as well). I wouldn't have called a pre-flop raise with 10-J off in the first place most of the time. Also, you don't want to raise too much preflop in a bovada cash game, they will fold most of the time, i say this based on experience. Cash games are completely different from tournaments keep that in mind.
BluffMeAllIn
4evrInmyheart RIP xoxo :(
Silver Level
Not going to waste my time you obviously havn't read and/or understood the posts I have made already.
cash or tourny outs and odds are the same, and my raise suggestions were based more on cash side of things....anyhow said i wasn't going to waste anymore of my time. good luck.
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ianarthurz
Rising Star
Bronze Level
@BluffMeAllIn
The odds and outs may be the same but the betting pattern is different. Huge preflop bets are not good in cash games unless it's the infamous AA vs KK situation. And i wouldn't count on that if had the bullets, unless someone raised big before me while i had the bullets/KK ...
The odds and outs may be the same but the betting pattern is different. Huge preflop bets are not good in cash games unless it's the infamous AA vs KK situation. And i wouldn't count on that if had the bullets, unless someone raised big before me while i had the bullets/KK ...
dj11
Legend
Silver Level
Kinda fuzzy around the edges, but I get what you are aiming at. Which brings me back to my normal response to questions about luck vs skill; Can we define luck? Generally not. Can we really define skill (poker wise) to a point where we can actually rate ones skills against another's? Not as simple as that seems, me thinks. Luck = Variance. So even 'skilled' players acknowledge luck, but won't speak its name. (Lord Voldemort?)
BluffMeAllIn
4evrInmyheart RIP xoxo :(
Silver Level
6x in the situation of 3 limpers is not huge, its standard. You speak as if I know nothing about cash games, in general you can bet/raise larger in a cash game (without committing yourself) because stacks are generally always deeper than in an mtt/stt/sng.
You should have a reason to raise in either variant, either it be for value or a bluff and AJ vs 3 limpers may be for value but it defeats the purpose if your raise is practically pricing them in. Regardless of the reason you should be standard in your bets/raises regardless of hand strength but more so based on position if you are going to vary them at all.
Simply put you got unlucky in a single situation where when the money went in you were an 88% favorite to the win the hand and took a beat, I don't see why you say anything about it is 50/50 (50/50 chance you would hit the A just as well he would hit the T but you don't need to hit the A to win which is why you are a huge favorite in this spot because you are ahead which is when we want to get the most money in that we can for value).
you got the best situation on the flop you could have hoped for essentially so really nothing to debate on the situation.
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mj23b
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Skill
Poker is skill and luck but like they said earlier you can lose to someone who gets lucky. Now the pros like Phil hellmuth Phil Ivey so on and so forth win all the time which clearly shows you that if every hand is played smart you can reach the final table at any table. So I say 90% skill 10% luck
Poker is skill and luck but like they said earlier you can lose to someone who gets lucky. Now the pros like Phil hellmuth Phil Ivey so on and so forth win all the time which clearly shows you that if every hand is played smart you can reach the final table at any table. So I say 90% skill 10% luck
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pokieman04
Enthusiast
Silver Level
It is both..you have to know how to play your cards to maximize your winning...fold good hands and read players .... Also gotta have luck I know I have got all my chips in and was a heavy favorite and lost many many times and I have also been behind and hit and am able to make deep runs into tournaments
kolecgoclaw
Legend
Silver Level
I play tournament is a 100 with 400 .. and gets a pair of aces. 1 guy before me put allin 16 k - I have 8k ... without thinking I put too.
It has a few ladies - falling t, 6, q, q, 9
and yes - is about the skills ... situation like this killing me.
no similar luck in poker does not win
It has a few ladies - falling t, 6, q, q, 9
and yes - is about the skills ... situation like this killing me.
no similar luck in poker does not win
el_magiciann
Legend
Silver Level
Luck 100% when it depends on TURBOS and HYPER TURBOS also 80% luck at low limit games, and 90% skill to all left, unfortunately i play mostly turbos and hyper so i am really unlucky :))))) Still pokerstars is a joke!
))))) Still pokerstars is a joke!
curtinsea
Rock Star
Silver Level
Let me throw this out at you. I was using this example as a way to explain to a layperson how you profit in poker, and I think it also illustrates the skill/chance issue quite well . . . .
Let's play a game. I have a six sided die, and we will gamble on the outcome. Now can we not all agree that it is completely chance what the result of the roll will be? Definitely we are playing a game of chance.
Now, I tell you "you pay me a dollar per roll, and if your number comes up, I'll pay you $5". You agree.
I have out played you, as long term I will win a dollar every six rolls. I have used the odds to my advantage and made the correct mathematical decision, and my long term results will show a profit. But we are still playing a game of chance.
Now, instead of agreeing to my terms, you counter with "No, if my number comes up, you pay me $7" and I agree.
Now you have outplayed me. Long term you will make a dollar every six rolls. You have made the correct mathematical play, and your long term results will be profitable. But we are still playing a game of chance.
This is what we do in poker, we make decisions based on the long term expectations of a particular play, but the result still holds that element of chance. So while we are using a skill to be profitable in the long term, the element of chance is not and cannot be negated.
Let's play a game. I have a six sided die, and we will gamble on the outcome. Now can we not all agree that it is completely chance what the result of the roll will be? Definitely we are playing a game of chance.
Now, I tell you "you pay me a dollar per roll, and if your number comes up, I'll pay you $5". You agree.
I have out played you, as long term I will win a dollar every six rolls. I have used the odds to my advantage and made the correct mathematical decision, and my long term results will show a profit. But we are still playing a game of chance.
Now, instead of agreeing to my terms, you counter with "No, if my number comes up, you pay me $7" and I agree.
Now you have outplayed me. Long term you will make a dollar every six rolls. You have made the correct mathematical play, and your long term results will be profitable. But we are still playing a game of chance.
This is what we do in poker, we make decisions based on the long term expectations of a particular play, but the result still holds that element of chance. So while we are using a skill to be profitable in the long term, the element of chance is not and cannot be negated.