Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

[Figaroo2]

Difficult river bet sizing decision...any suggestions?

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

Hero (SB): $26.05 (104.2 bb)
BB: $9.44 (37.8 bb)
UTG+1: $26.62 (106.5 bb)
UTG+2: $46.74 (187 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb) 11/10/30 in 81 ROCK.. WTSD when saw flop 0%
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
MP3: $25 (100 bb)
CO: $31.11 (124.4 bb)
BTN: $22.11 (88.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5:diamond: 5:spade:
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.25) J:heart: K:club: 6:club: (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks

Turn: ($2.25) 5:club: (3 players)
Hero bets $1.61, BB folds, MP1 raises to $5, Hero calls $3.39

River: ($12.25) K:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets ??
The king appears to be a good card for my hand as I'm now obviously beating any flush.
He could easily have a king and a hard hand to put down, do we go half pot and try to induce a shove, value bet 75-100% or simply overbet shove? Should we just ignore the wtsd =0 on a relatively small sample or do we factor this in.
I also now note his river agg is 50%, it looks like he hasn't got to showdown as he has bet the river and got folds.

 

[Fisi]

Difficult river bet sizing decision...any suggestions?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

Hero (SB): $26.05 (104.2 bb)
BB: $9.44 (37.8 bb)
UTG+1: $26.62 (106.5 bb)
UTG+2: $46.74 (187 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb) 11/10/30 in 81 ROCK.. WTSD when saw flop 0%
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
MP3: $25 (100 bb)
CO: $31.11 (124.4 bb)
BTN: $22.11 (88.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5♦ 5♠
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.25) J♥ K♣ 6♣ (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks

Turn: ($2.25) 5♣ (3 players)
Hero bets $1.61, BB folds, MP1 raises to $5, Hero calls $3.39

River: ($12.25) K♦ (2 players)
Hero bets ??
The king appears to be a good card for my hand as I'm now obviously beating any flush.
He could easily have a king and a hard hand to put down, do we go half pot and try to induce a shove, value bet 75-100% or simply overbet shove? Should we just ignore the wtsd =0 on a relatively small sample or do we factor this in.
I also now note his river agg is 50%, it looks like he hasn't got to showdown as he has bet the river and got folds.

I'd probably go for 75-100%, since he's probably just calling river. I don't think he shoves often vs. half pot unless he has nut flush + given he is a rock. Also he might not call an overbet with a Kx, while he just might call a 80% psb with it.

 

[John A]

Difficult river bet sizing decision...any suggestions?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

Hero (SB): $26.05 (104.2 bb)
BB: $9.44 (37.8 bb)
UTG+1: $26.62 (106.5 bb)
UTG+2: $46.74 (187 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb) 11/10/30 in 81 ROCK.. WTSD when saw flop 0%
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
MP3: $25 (100 bb)
CO: $31.11 (124.4 bb)
BTN: $22.11 (88.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5♦ 5♠
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.25) J♥ K♣ 6♣ (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks

Turn: ($2.25) 5♣ (3 players)
Hero bets $1.61, BB folds, MP1 raises to $5, Hero calls $3.39

River: ($12.25) K♦ (2 players)
Hero bets ??
The king appears to be a good card for my hand as I'm now obviously beating any flush.
He could easily have a king and a hard hand to put down, do we go half pot and try to induce a shove, value bet 75-100% or simply overbet shove? Should we just ignore the wtsd =0 on a relatively small sample or do we factor this in.
I also now note his river agg is 50%, it looks like he hasn't got to showdown as he has bet the river and got folds.

I'd pot the river. If he wasn't such a rock, I'd probably shove. He doesn't have Kx, he either has a flush or he poorly played boat, which some of these rocks will do. Check that kind of flop MW with JJ for example. It wouldn't totally surprise me.

 

[Figaroo2]

I'd pot the river. If he wasn't such a rock, I'd probably shove. He doesn't have Kx, he either has a flush or he poorly played boat, which some of these rocks will do. Check that kind of flop MW with JJ for example. It wouldn't totally surprise me.

Yes Kx is definitely betting that flop, I didn't really consider that properly.... I actually shoved all in hoping for a call from AK or a flush but he folded....
I probably lost value on that hand but the play appeared to scare the rest of the table as everyone kept out of my way for some while afterwards.

 

[Aleksei]

I'd pot the river. If he wasn't such a rock, I'd probably shove. He doesn't have Kx, he either has a flush or he poorly played boat, which some of these rocks will do. Check that kind of flop MW with JJ for example. It wouldn't totally surprise me.

Do you fold if he jams after you pot it?

 

[John A]

Do you fold if he jams after you pot it?

I don't think I'm potting it against this guy though. But if you're asking if I'd bet/fold, then yes. I don't expect someone like that to jam anything but a higher boat. He's calling Kx and flushes.

 

[Aleksei]

I don't think I'm potting it against this guy though.

hmm, you just said you would.

How much are you betting, then?

 

[John A]

Sorry, I meant I'm not shoving. Got confused... but yes, against someone like this I'd probably make a seriously sick fold if he shoves. In retro though, probably $9.5/fold to a shove is ideal.

 

[John A]

Alright... so no reads on opponent. Less than a rotation at the table. 100nl online. He opens UTG 3x, MP calls, I call in CO with TT. Folds to BB who also calls. So a family pot.

Flop, Tx 6 Jx - rainbow. BB check, UTG bets 2/3rds, MP folds, I call, BB cals.

Turn: Kx - completes rainbow. BB checks, UTG bets 3/4ths, I call, BB folds.

River 7x. UTG shoves $83 into ~ $70 and I fold.

My perceived range is pretty strong here in a MW pot for him to go this aggro. With no reads, it seems unlikely he's trying to push me off my hand, and not much else makes sense besides AQ/KK/JJ.

 

[Figaroo2]

This looks like a good fold at first glance but something doesn't feel right.
If the villain has AQ would he lead out on the flop into four players?
If he did he was brave perhap even foolish.
If he has KK or JJ he still has to consider that AQ is a very possible calling hand here so I would expect the K on the turn to slow him down. For the turn to get called and for him to still shove Kkk or Jjj is a interesting

 

[Aleksei]

Alright... so no reads on opponent. Less than a rotation at the table. 100nl online. He opens UTG 3x, MP calls, I call in CO with TT. Folds to BB who also calls. So a family pot.

Flop, Tx 6 Jx - rainbow. BB check, UTG bets 2/3rds, MP folds, I call, BB cals.

Turn: Kx - completes rainbow. BB checks, UTG bets 3/4ths, I call, BB folds.

River 7x. UTG shoves $83 into ~ $70 and I fold.

My perceived range is pretty strong here in a MW pot for him to go this aggro. With no reads, it seems unlikely he's trying to push me off my hand, and not much else makes sense besides AQ/KK/JJ.

hmm... with no reads, I tend to automatically raise that flop with a set, for max value against JT, AJ, 66, draws.

Is there a reason I should not be doing that?

 

[Figaroo2]

hmm... with no reads, I tend to automatically raise that flop with a set, for max value against JT, AJ, 66, draws.

Is there a reason I should not be doing that?

This was my first thought as well actually.. but with it being rainbow I think you can call and hope that everyone else comes along It is of course dangerous to give a lesser price on the turn card but it aids deception and any low card allows you to crash in a big raise on the turn. If we raise the flop we are folding out a lot of weaker hands which might otherwise call with it being 4 handed. I don't think you can go far wrong with raising the flop. you are more likely to win the hand but probably won't win as much.
The last thing that bothers me here is that QQ and AA are every bit as likely up to the point of the shove. he might even think AA is good here if he puts you on QQ or AK

 

[John A]

This looks like a good fold at first glance but something doesn't feel right.
If the villain has AQ would he lead out on the flop into four players?
If he did he was brave perhap even foolish.
If he has KK or JJ he still has to consider that AQ is a very possible calling hand here so I would expect the K on the turn to slow him down. For the turn to get called and for him to still shove Kkk or Jjj is a interesting

Well, I wouldn't bet AQ, but I'm not taking it out of someone's range. I've seen players bet these hands MW before at these kinds of stakes. There's also hands like Q9s as well. I'm not stoked about the fold. He could also have done it for perceived value with 66. But JJ/KK would definitely shove because there's plenty of worse value hands that would call. 66/TT/ maybe some bad 2 pairs. He doesn't know me and I don't know him.

I think after watching him play a bit, it was a good fold, but still not 100% on it. And so, that's poker!

Happy new year everyone!

 

[John A]

hmm... with no reads, I tend to automatically raise that flop with a set, for max value against JT, AJ, 66, draws.

Is there a reason I should not be doing that?

Rainbow and MW. I want to allow someone to possibly try and CR a draw, etc... if I raise, I'm pushing all of those possibilities out.

 

[Fisi]

The river shove does seem really strong. How about JTs and KJs, are we ruling them out? I do expect him to bet somewhere around half pot with two pair here, but still an unknown could overvestimate the value of his hand here no?

Yeah and a happy new year to everyone!

 

[John A]

The river shove does seem really strong. How about JTs and KJs, are we ruling them out? I do expect him to bet somewhere around half pot with two pair here, but still an unknown could overvestimate the value of his hand here no?

Yeah and a happy new year to everyone!

That's part of the problem. You don't know at the time if someone is going to over value their hand that much. To over shove there, what is calling that's worse? The hand's not super easy to solve simply because you have a strong hand, there's at least one worse value hand that might shove - 66, and someone might over value their two pair, or have complete air.

Omg... time for a super late breakfast.

 

[Gorak]

Villain is playing VP 33 / PR 33 / 3B 33 but I only have an 18 hands sample.

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $0.39 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
MP: $2.07
CO: $1.22 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BTN: $2.78 (VPIP: 20.31, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 66)
SB: $2.79 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 18)
Hero (BB): $2.07

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A:spade: T:spade:

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.12, 2 players) A:club: 2:diamond: T:heart:
SB bets $0.04, Hero raises to $0.12, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.18

What could be Villain's range for re-raising me here?

Turn: ($0.72, 2 players) 6:diamond:
SB bets $0.43, Hero calls $0.43

At this stage Villain has control of the pot. I think he is coming for my whole stack.

River: ($1.58, 2 players) 6:heart:
SB bets $2.00 and is all-in

Hero???

 

[HooDooKoo]

Rainbow and MW. I want to allow someone to possibly try and CR a draw, etc... if I raise, I'm pushing all of those possibilities out.

I understand John's point here, but I think raising the flop is fine if you think the table is fishy enough that they'll call your raise with their draws or with TPGK+. I raise this flop and get callers frequently, and it's very profitable.

-HooDooKoo

 

[Figaroo2]

Villain is playing VP 33 / PR 33 / 3B 33 but I only have an 18 hands sample.

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $0.39 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
MP: $2.07
CO: $1.22 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BTN: $2.78 (VPIP: 20.31, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 66)
SB: $2.79 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 18)
Hero (BB): $2.07

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A♠ T♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.12, 2 players) A♣ 2♦ T♥
SB bets $0.04, Hero raises to $0.12, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.18

What could be Villain's range for re-raising me here?

Turn: ($0.72, 2 players) 6♦
SB bets $0.43, Hero calls $0.43

At this stage Villain has control of the pot. I think he is coming for my whole stack.

River: ($1.58, 2 players) 6♥
SB bets $2.00 and is all-in

Hero???

This situation is nearly always bottom set...occasionally you migh be lucky and they have top and bottom or AK....its difficult to hit a rainbow board otherwise,,, in this RECENT IDENTICAL hand I'm firmly putting them on bottom set and called it before still calling.....
Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $7.18 (71.8 bb)
BB: $30.14 (301.4 bb)
MP1: $3.34 (33.4 bb)
MP2: $8.12 (81.2 bb)
MP3: $10 (100 bb)
CO: $4.45 (44.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10.38 (103.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T:heart: A:spade:
MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, MP3 calls $0.10, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.30, MP3 calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.35) 2:diamond: A:heart: T:club: (3 players)
MP2 bets $0.70, MP3 folds, Hero calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.75) 3:club: (2 players)
MP2 bets $1.90, Hero calls $1.90

River: ($6.55) 6:club: (2 players)
MP2 bets $3.50,
hero calls IN CHAT ......YOU MUST HAVE BOTTOM SET......
MP2 showed 2:heart: 2:club: and won

 

[Figaroo2]

Dumbest play of the month?!

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

Hero (SB): $45.26 (181 bb)
BB: $18.62 (74.5 bb)
UTG+1: $32.38 (129.5 bb)
UTG+2: $26.85 (107.4 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb)
MP2: $30.33 (121.3 bb)
MP3: $27.66 (110.6 bb)
CO: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
BTN: $6.35 (25.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A♥ A♣
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BB folds, MP2 calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) Q♣ 2♥ T♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $3.75, MP2 calls $3.75

Turn: ($12.75) J♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $6.09, Hero raises to $30.45, MP2 calls $17.99 and is all-in

River: ($60.91) 6♦ (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $60.91 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: Q♣ 2♥ T♣ J♣ 6♦
Hero showed A♥ A♣ and lost (-$30.33 net)
MP2 showed Q♦ Q♥ and won $58.91 ($28.58 net)

Doh what was I thinking??

 

[Gorak]

This situation is nearly always bottom set...

hero calls IN CHAT ......YOU MUST HAVE BOTTOM SET......

Yeah bottom set is most likely in his range. But we still have some outs with top 2. I was hitting my time bank every street trying to know what villain was doing. The red flags were there and he was sizing his bets to get the stacks in on the river.

 

[Gorak]

Dumbest play of the month?!

Doh what was I thinking??

Indeed you didn't beat many hands in his range. I think I may have called on the turn since we have a draw to the nut flush but a fold is probably the best EV line here. Limit the damage and move on to the next hand.

 

[John A]

Villain is playing VP 33 / PR 33 / 3B 33 but I only have an 18 hands sample.

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $0.39 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
MP: $2.07
CO: $1.22 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BTN: $2.78 (VPIP: 20.31, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 66)
SB: $2.79 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 18)
Hero (BB): $2.07

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A<font color='black'>♠</font> T<font color='black'>♠</font>

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.12, 2 players) A<font color='black'>♣</font> 2<font color='red'>♦</font> T<font color='red'>♥</font>
SB bets $0.04, Hero raises to $0.12, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.18

What could be Villain's range for re-raising me here?

Turn: ($0.72, 2 players) 6<font color='red'>♦</font>
SB bets $0.43, Hero calls $0.43

At this stage Villain has control of the pot. I think he is coming for my whole stack.

River: ($1.58, 2 players) 6<font color='red'>♥</font>
SB bets $2.00 and is all-in

Hero???

I'd lean towards shoving the turn. You don't want him to get away now, but as played, easy river call. Only 18 hands and he can be over valuing a ton of Ax hands, or have air (KQ).

 

[John A]

I understand John's point here, but I think raising the flop is fine if you think the table is fishy enough that they'll call your raise with their draws or with TPGK+. I raise this flop and get callers frequently, and it's very profitable.

-HooDooKoo

Yeah, that's a good point. If think your table is fishy enough, then definitely raise. The reason I'm not raising is because people will fold out middle and sometimes top pair if I raise, but I'll get a lot more CR's with draws if I call. That won't apply quite as much at lower stakes.

 

[Gorak]

I'd lean towards shoving the turn. You don't want him to get away now, but as played, easy river call. Only 18 hands and he can be over valuing a ton of Ax hands, or have air (KQ).

For me it was not an easy call. I probably lost the last 10 river shoves I faced in similar situations.

One thing that made me call was that I was using a Ring Game Ticket at the time. Plus it was late at night so players are taking more risks.

Anyway here is the result of that one:

Spoiler

Hero calls $1.28 and is all-in

SB shows 3:spade: 5:spade: (One Pair, Sixes)
(Pre 35%, Flop 16%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows A:spade: T:spade: (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 66%, Flop 84%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins $3.94