Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

[JackleOfCrackle]

Hand at local game. UTG Villain unknown but seems kind of fishy/splashy. I am sitting with 105bb and Villain has around 85bb.

UTG villain opens to $15

We are MP with QcQd and 3bet $55
folds around UTG calls.

Flop
8h 9h 8d

UTG checks. I raise to 3/4 pot and villain calls.

Turn 3c

UTG checks and I raise to a bit over 1/2 pot and villain raises 3x my raise. (villain only has around 25/30bb behind at this point?)

Hero??

 

[John A]

Hand at local game. UTG Villain unknown but seems kind of fishy/splashy. I am sitting with 105bb and Villain has around 85bb.

UTG villain opens to $15

We are MP with QcQd and 3bet $55
folds around UTG calls.

Flop
8h 9h 8d

UTG checks. I raise to 3/4 pot and villain calls.

Turn 3c

UTG checks and I raise to a bit over 1/2 pot and villain raises 3x my raise. (villain only has around 25/30bb behind at this point?)

Hero??

Bet 1/2 on the flop, so you can bet around that on the turn w/o being committed. If you don't have history w/ your opponent here, and you really think he's just a fish, then I don't hate the large bet, but anything 1/2 pot or larger you bet on the turn you're committing yourself. I think w/ only 85bbs to start, shoving turn is ok versus his range. Punch it up... what will he have there?

 

[JackleOfCrackle]

Bet 1/2 on the flop, so you can bet around that on the turn w/o being committed. If you don't have history w/ your opponent here, and you really think he's just a fish, then I don't hate the large bet, but anything 1/2 pot or larger you bet on the turn you're committing yourself. I think w/ only 85bbs to start, shoving turn is ok versus his range. Punch it up... what will he have there?

Yeah larger bet sizing basically looking to just get full stack and get paid by some random hand. I was thrown off this plan though when he re raised on the turn.
So are we just jamming over the top on this turn here??


How many trip 8s or full houses are we up against here?
Does he ever play AK or and any nut flush draw like this? I assumed usually he would play them aggro on the flop? Is he just trying to steal with some random flush draw he is now turning into a bluff? I was really confused what he has here.

 

[John A]

Yeah larger bet sizing basically looking to just get full stack and get paid by some random hand. I was thrown off this plan though when he re raised on the turn.
So are we just jamming over the top on this turn here??


How many trip 8s or full houses are we up against here?
Does he ever play AK or and any nut flush draw like this? I assumed usually he would play them aggro on the flop? Is he just trying to steal with some random flush draw he is now turning into a bluff? I was really confused what he has here.

With what he has behind, you're either folding or shoving the turn to get max value from his draws. He will have some for sure, especially based on your description. Not even including a ton of draws, just a few, a fairly moderate range would be:



This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database
Board: 8h 9h 8d 3c Xx


equity Win Tie Hand Range

55.765% 55.765% 0% [ QcQd ]

44.235% 44.235% 0% [ AHJH(100), A8s-A9s(100), KK(100), QHJH(100), 88-JJ(100), JTs(100), 98s(100), 87s(100), 76s(100) ]


I think the better question is, what would be a range you could actually fold to now after his turn raise. It would need to be nearly nutted only. If you add even JJ to this range, you have to at least call.


This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database
Board: 8h 9h 8d 3c Xx


Equity Win Tie Hand Range

4.2614% 4.2614% 0% [ QcQd ]

95.7386% 95.7386% 0% [ A8s(100), KK(100), 88-99(100), 98s(100), 87s(100) ]

Same range as above just add JJ:


This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database
Board: 8h 9h 8d 3c Xx


Equity Win Tie Hand Range

29.1322% 29.1322% 0% [ QcQd ]

70.8678% 70.8678% 0% [ A8s(100), KK(100), JJ(100), 88-99(100), 98s(100), 87s(100) ]

 

[John A]

GTO poker – How profitable is it at micro and small stakes?


http://pokerzion.com/gto-poker-profitable-micro-small-stakes/

 

[JackleOfCrackle]

GTO poker – How profitable is it at micro and small stakes?


http://pokerzion.com/gto-poker-profitable-micro-small-stakes/

100% agree with this article. I think GTO is not profitable at all at lower stakes and only works against thinking regs that you have history with.

 

[Figaroo2]

Pacific, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $8.70 (87 bb)
BB: $9.10 (91 bb)
UTG+2: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
MP1: $13.51 (135.1 bb)
Hero (MP2): $11.93 (119.3 bb)
MP3: $17.59 (175.9 bb)
CO: $9.70 (97 bb)
BTN: $14.92 (149.2 bb)VPIP: 15, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 2.1, Hands: 2242 ABC reg

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q♠ A♠
UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.26, Hero calls $0.26, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.26, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.93) J♦ 9♠ 3♠ (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.46, BTN raises to $1.28, MP1 folds, Hero calls $0.82 (Thought about reraising here, any thoughts on that?)

Turn: ($3.49) 2♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.54, Hero calls $1.54

River: ($6.57) 4♠ (2 players)
Hero? I have sometimes struggled to identify times when its best to check the nuts. Obviously its easy to bet if they are at all passive or you think they are weak. I nearly always bet fairly large oop with the nuts unless villain is very aggro and im sure hes going to bet.
Here it was just one of those spots where I was unsure what was best. If you do bet at what sizing?
I did bet large here, his flop raise is i think going to contain some sets and weaker flush draws.

 

[JackleOfCrackle]

Pacific, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $8.70 (87 bb)
BB: $9.10 (91 bb)
UTG+2: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
MP1: $13.51 (135.1 bb)
Hero (MP2): $11.93 (119.3 bb)
MP3: $17.59 (175.9 bb)
CO: $9.70 (97 bb)
BTN: $14.92 (149.2 bb)VPIP: 15, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 2.1, Hands: 2242 ABC reg

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q♠ A♠
UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.26, Hero calls $0.26, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.26, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.93) J♦ 9♠ 3♠ (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.46, BTN raises to $1.28, MP1 folds, Hero calls $0.82 (Thought about reraising here, any thoughts on that?)

Turn: ($3.49) 2♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.54, Hero calls $1.54

River: ($6.57) 4♠ (2 players)
Hero? I have sometimes struggled to identify times when its best to check the nuts. Obviously its easy to bet if they are at all passive or you think they are weak. I nearly always bet fairly large oop with the nuts unless villain is very aggro and im sure hes going to bet.
Here it was just one of those spots where I was unsure what was best. If you do bet at what sizing?
I did bet large here, his flop raise is i think going to contain some sets and weaker flush draws.

3 bet pre!!!

On the flop I'm probably looking to check raise this and build the pot but if we have to donk I don't really hate a donk/jam line to polarise our hand but I don't really like donk/call. I think these lines make our play on the turn somewhat hard when we miss our hand.

River with this villain I'm probably going for a small value bet to give overpairs a crying call because they will be somewhat scared of this spade and I don't want them to be able to check back.

 

[Alucard]

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 96 BB (VPIP: 34.50, PFR: 16.79, 3Bet Preflop: 2.23, hands: 1,294)
BTN: 253.38 BB (VPIP: 28.84, PFR: 19.46, 3Bet Preflop: 7.81, Hands: 2,781)
SB: 44.32 BB (VPIP: 54.76, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 44)
BB: 96.08 BB (VPIP: 46.49, PFR: 10.12, 3Bet Preflop: 3.96, Hands: 492)
Hero (UTG): 259.16 BB
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.10, PFR: 17.79, 3Bet Preflop: 5.84, Hands: 757)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qd Qs
Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop : (18 BB, 6 players) 9h 8d 8h
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks, BTN bets 14 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 14 BB, MP calls 14 BB, fold

Turn : (60 BB, 3 players) 3d
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets 44 BB, fold, fold

BTN wins 57 BB


a tough spot for me. Even tho we call flop it'd be hard to maneuver turn & river. do we xr or cb?
BTN is a loose reg

 

[JackleOfCrackle]

10/25 game live. Stacks are all around 100bb.

Villain (BB) is somewhat unknown. He seems pretty active but he has not shown down anything. Just a little aggro or on a good run of cards but nothing solid to go off.

I am in the CO.

MP opens to 75.

I have AsKc and raise to around 230

SB calls and BB calls. MP folds.

Flop is Kd 7s 7h
Check, check and I raise just over 3/4 pot. SB folds, BB calls

Turn
5d

BB checks and I raise to around 1/2 pot. BB thinks for 15 seconds and raises 2x.

Hero?

Pretty much a jam or fold spot.

 

[Figaroo2]

JofC
AK I call... I prefer a fold to a shove. I think turn raise is a dual purpose probe. He's trying to find out if his QQ JJ TT KQs is good and or trying to freeze your river betting to get to a cheaper showdown.
He shouldn't have much 8x here unless its quads. Whats he repping otherwise?

 

[John A]

100% agree with this article. I think GTO is not profitable at all at lower stakes and only works against thinking regs that you have history with.

And the main point is, learn it, but if you're thinking... hey I need to check here 65% of the time , etc.. etc... you're not really understanding how to apply GTO strategy to a micro or small stakes game.

 

[John A]

Pacific, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $8.70 (87 bb)
BB: $9.10 (91 bb)
UTG+2: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
MP1: $13.51 (135.1 bb)
Hero (MP2): $11.93 (119.3 bb)
MP3: $17.59 (175.9 bb)
CO: $9.70 (97 bb)
BTN: $14.92 (149.2 bb)VPIP: 15, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 2.1, Hands: 2242 ABC reg

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q♠ A♠
UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.26, Hero calls $0.26, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.26, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.93) J♦ 9♠ 3♠ (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.46, BTN raises to $1.28, MP1 folds, Hero calls $0.82 (Thought about reraising here, any thoughts on that?)

Turn: ($3.49) 2♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.54, Hero calls $1.54

River: ($6.57) 4♠ (2 players)
Hero? I have sometimes struggled to identify times when its best to check the nuts. Obviously its easy to bet if they are at all passive or you think they are weak. I nearly always bet fairly large oop with the nuts unless villain is very aggro and im sure hes going to bet.
Here it was just one of those spots where I was unsure what was best. If you do bet at what sizing?
I did bet large here, his flop raise is i think going to contain some sets and weaker flush draws.

Pre.. I guess you're not worried about many squeezes? A 3-bet on most tables it probably preferable unless your table is playing pretty passive.


In the sandwhich spot on the flop I prefer check/call since you'll be last to act. But I don't hate a bet either. Your goal here should be to get it MW though and you reduce that by betting.

On the turn, you're pretty much stuck with check/call. If he's raising the flop MW, you won't have FE if you CR obviously. River you need to bet. He should still bet his sets, etc... but there's not enough missed draws to warrant a CR vs someone so nitty. You should just go for value. You check w/ the nuts versus opponents who will bluff/rep the nuts themselves too much, or clearly can't have with a callable hand or have a very strong hand you know they are betting. The only thing you have going out of all of those is your opponents range might be decently strong, but he may make a mistake and not bet.

 

[John A]

iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 96 BB (VPIP: 34.50, PFR: 16.79, 3Bet Preflop: 2.23, Hands: 1,294)
BTN: 253.38 BB (VPIP: 28.84, PFR: 19.46, 3Bet Preflop: 7.81, Hands: 2,781)
SB: 44.32 BB (VPIP: 54.76, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 44)
BB: 96.08 BB (VPIP: 46.49, PFR: 10.12, 3Bet Preflop: 3.96, Hands: 492)
Hero (UTG): 259.16 BB
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.10, PFR: 17.79, 3Bet Preflop: 5.84, Hands: 757)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qd Qs
Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop : (18 BB, 6 players) 9h 8d 8h
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks, BTN bets 14 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 14 BB, MP calls 14 BB, fold

Turn : (60 BB, 3 players) 3d
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets 44 BB, fold, fold

BTN wins 57 BB


a tough spot for me. Even tho we call flop it'd be hard to maneuver turn & river. do we xr or cb?
BTN is a loose reg

With that many in the hand, I think you played it fine. Good flop check/call and turn check/fold. He should be checking his draws on the turn after having two calls on that flop.

 

[John A]

10/25 game live. Stacks are all around 100bb.

Villain (BB) is somewhat unknown. He seems pretty active but he has not shown down anything. Just a little aggro or on a good run of cards but nothing solid to go off.

I am in the CO.

MP opens to 75.

I have AsKc and raise to around 230

SB calls and BB calls. MP folds.

Flop is Kd 7s 7h
Check, check and I raise just over 3/4 pot. SB folds, BB calls

Turn
5d

BB checks and I raise to around 1/2 pot. BB thinks for 15 seconds and raises 2x.

Hero?

Pretty much a jam or fold spot.

Check flop. And if you are betting, you need to bet way less. 1/2 pot or even less.

As played, it's your game, but you should jam. I mean if he's cold calling w/ 7x in his range there, then he's going to spew elsewhere and you'll get your money back pretty fast. He either has 55/77, you're splitting, AdQd, or air.

 

[John A]

Are most of your guys playing fast fold poker right now, or regular tables online?

 

[Figaroo2]

Mostly regular tables, no brainer for me.
Only real decision of the session.

Pacific, $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

SB: $75.32 (251.1 bb)
BB: $34.32 (114.4 bb)
UTG+1: $30 (100 bb)VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.6, Hands: 5926
UTG+2: $38.81 (129.4 bb)
MP1: $32.52 (108.4 bb)
MP2: $29.10 (97 bb)
Hero (MP3): $35.16 (117.2 bb)
CO: $6.27 (20.9 bb)
BTN: $32.01 (106.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J♥ J♦
UTG+1 raises to $0.90, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.90, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.25) T♦ 3♠ 9♠ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.25) 2♦ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3.49, Hero calls $3.49

River: ($12.23) 5♥ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.13, Hero?

Villain is a good winning reg opens 11% from EP
barrels flop 77 , turn 64, Riv 63.

3bet pre? Pretty unexploitable river stat. but it seems as good a board as we could hope for to call down so I guess I should?

 

[JackleOfCrackle]

Mostly regular tables, no brainer for me.
Only real decision of the session.

Pacific, $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

SB: $75.32 (251.1 bb)
BB: $34.32 (114.4 bb)
UTG+1: $30 (100 bb)VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.6, Hands: 5926
UTG+2: $38.81 (129.4 bb)
MP1: $32.52 (108.4 bb)
MP2: $29.10 (97 bb)
Hero (MP3): $35.16 (117.2 bb)
CO: $6.27 (20.9 bb)
BTN: $32.01 (106.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J♥ J♦
UTG+1 raises to $0.90, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.90, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.25) T♦ 3♠ 9♠ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.25) 2♦ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3.49, Hero calls $3.49

River: ($12.23) 5♥ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.13, Hero?

Villain is a good winning reg opens 11% from EP
barrels flop 77 , turn 64, Riv 63.

3bet pre? Pretty unexploitable river stat. but it seems as good a board as we could hope for to call down so I guess I should?

3 bet pre as it just leads to a lot of easier post flop positions/decisions instead of tough calls like this.

As played though sigh and call I guess? Feels like we are getting shown QQ+ and never ahead of this line but I am a station and I think villain can have just enough bluffs. IMO your hand is also a little under repped from the PF action so I think he can have you on heaps of top pair/draw type hands that he feels he can fold you off.

 

[John A]

Mostly regular tables, no brainer for me.
Only real decision of the session.

Pacific, $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

SB: $75.32 (251.1 bb)
BB: $34.32 (114.4 bb)
UTG+1: $30 (100 bb)VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.6, Hands: 5926
UTG+2: $38.81 (129.4 bb)
MP1: $32.52 (108.4 bb)
MP2: $29.10 (97 bb)
Hero (MP3): $35.16 (117.2 bb)
CO: $6.27 (20.9 bb)
BTN: $32.01 (106.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J♥ J♦
UTG+1 raises to $0.90, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.90, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.25) T♦ 3♠ 9♠ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.25) 2♦ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3.49, Hero calls $3.49

River: ($12.23) 5♥ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.13, Hero?

Villain is a good winning reg opens 11% from EP
barrels flop 77 , turn 64, Riv 63.

3bet pre? Pretty unexploitable river stat. but it seems as good a board as we could hope for to call down so I guess I should?

Just flatting pre is fine of course. I don't hate a small 3-bet either. The river is a fold. I think we'd like to say it's close based on the sizing, etc.. but I don't think it is super close given the board and your hand. I think we have to say villain value bets 99+, maybe he check calls some JJ (but you already have one of those combos). So you're looking at about 35 value bet combos.... now how many bluff combos does he really have (also considering QJ is down some hands)? I don't see a lot. Maybe 4-5. I don't think on something this draw heavy this kind of opponent is barreling low equity hands like AQo often enough. And I don't think he'll have 78 in his range very often either.

So river looks like a pretty easy fold when you really look at it. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Figaroo2]

I did fold. I was swayed by the fact that 99 and TT are there as well as the QQ+. This guy is capable of 3 barrels here with he whole range though. The way im reading his stats is they are saying he has two value bets for each bluff on the river so he will have air here 33% of the time.
It was more a case that I felt I need to station here sometimes and this board was favourable without any overs.
Yeah tough spot so I think a small 3bet (so can flat a 4bet in position) might be more defining and cheaper versus good regs with these frequencies.

 

[JackleOfCrackle]

Just flatting pre is fine of course. I don't hate a small 3-bet either. The river is a fold. I think we'd like to say it's close based on the sizing, etc.. but I don't think it is super close given the board and your hand. I think we have to say villain value bets 99+, maybe he check calls some JJ (but you already have one of those combos). So you're looking at about 35 value bet combos.... now how many bluff combos does he really have (also considering QJ is down some hands)? I don't see a lot. Maybe 4-5. I don't think on something this draw heavy this kind of opponent is barreling low equity hands like AQo often enough. And I don't think he'll have 78 in his range very often either.

So river looks like a pretty easy fold when you really look at it. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I mostly agree with this but I don't really like flatting pre at all. Sets us up for a difficult hand with jacks never really knowing if we are way ahead or way behind especially on run outs like this.
Just to play devils advocate and spark conversation. If we are folding jacks on this river why did we call the turn? Just praying he gives up? Against this villain I think we really need to make a decision on the turn if we are calling him down all the way unless maybe an overcard comes and he keeps barreling. Or we even consider turning them into a bluff with a small raise forcing his Ak/AQ and draw type hands to fold and take the pot down (on the turn-not saying this is great but it's a plan). Obv folding if he jams and shows he wants to play for stacks.
But calling turn to fold to a brick river seems like a we are calling in hope we aren't facing a river bet which IMO we are a lot of the time. The river changed nothing at all and is probably the best river our little ol jacks can hope for.
I don't mind the fold but I find it hard to know why we are calling turn if we aren't willing to take our hand down on a run out like this. Agreed though his bet sizing looks like pure value IMO and a call kind of sucks. I just think he can have a ton of draws that he missed and is forced into triple barreling as his only way of taking the pot.

 

[John A]

I did fold. I was swayed by the fact that 99 and TT are there as well as the QQ+. This guy is capable of 3 barrels here with he whole range though. The way im reading his stats is they are saying he has two value bets for each bluff on the river so he will have air here 33% of the time.
It was more a case that I felt I need to station here sometimes and this board was favourable without any overs.
Yeah tough spot so I think a small 3bet (so can flat a 4bet in position) might be more defining and cheaper versus good regs with these frequencies.

Well, if he's going to have air 33% of the time, then you should obv be calling. I don't take a ton of stock in river stats until a player has maybe 50k+ hands. This is not a good board to continue on if he has the reasonable air hands he might triple with normally, like AK/AQ. But like I said, unless you want to include a ton of air in his range here, really he should have mostly value bets on this kind of runout and pre-flop opening position.


As far as 3-betting, you know how I feel about doing something for info...do-do poker. You'd 3-bet small mostly to just ISO and not get squeezed and you're doing it for value, not info.

 

[John A]

I mostly agree with this but I don't really like flatting pre at all. Sets us up for a difficult hand with jacks never really knowing if we are way ahead or way behind especially on run outs like this.
Just to play devils advocate and spark conversation. If we are folding jacks on this river why did we call the turn? Just praying he gives up? Against this villain I think we really need to make a decision on the turn if we are calling him down all the way unless maybe an overcard comes and he keeps barreling. Or we even consider turning them into a bluff with a small raise forcing his Ak/AQ and draw type hands to fold and take the pot down (on the turn-not saying this is great but it's a plan). Obv folding if he jams and shows he wants to play for stacks.
But calling turn to fold to a brick river seems like a we are calling in hope we aren't facing a river bet which IMO we are a lot of the time. The river changed nothing at all and is probably the best river our little ol jacks can hope for.
I don't mind the fold but I find it hard to know why we are calling turn if we aren't willing to take our hand down on a run out like this. Agreed though his bet sizing looks like pure value IMO and a call kind of sucks. I just think he can have a ton of draws that he missed and is forced into triple barreling as his only way of taking the pot.

Good questions... but be warned.
If you're following this thread, you should know two things about my poker advice.
1) I absolutely hate the concept of "doing something for info". That's just bad poker. You should choose an action because it has value.
2) I hate the, why did you call turn if you folded river thing I often here from poker players. An opponents range changes on every street based on their actions. So betting a big draw, etc... will still be in someone's range on the turn. However, not everyone bluffs that busted draw after being called down 2 streets.

That's just a simple example, but in this exact hand, we're ahead of his turn betting range. You're calling because we don't know what he's doing on the river. Our opponents action and sizing if they bet dictate a call/fold/raise. If he bet $4 for example, we're calling. If he bets $6.5+, we're folding. I think the average river aggression in no-limit holdem is something like 21%. If that's the case, why would you think our opponent is betting for sure, and that betting range has enough bluffs? What bluffs do you think he's going to have here?

I'll get you started KsQs, AsQs, AsKs, AsJs, QJs (2 combos)... that's 6 combos of bluffs. We have at least 35 value bet combos. What else do you want to add?

 

[John A]

This is what I have looking at the hand.

8 bluff combos, 37 value combos. So it comes down to, do we want to add hands like AKo, AQo etc? I don't think this kind of tighter opponent is barreling out those hands often enough imho.

 

[JackleOfCrackle]

Good questions... but be warned.
If you're following this thread, you should know two things about my poker advice.
1) I absolutely hate the concept of "doing something for info". That's just bad poker. You should choose an action because it has value.
2) I hate the, why did you call turn if you folded river thing I often here from poker players. An opponents range changes on every street based on their actions. So betting a big draw, etc... will still be in someone's range on the turn. However, not everyone bluffs that busted draw after being called down 2 streets.

That's just a simple example, but in this exact hand, we're ahead of his turn betting range. You're calling because we don't know what he's doing on the river. Our opponents action and sizing if they bet dictate a call/fold/raise. If he bet $4 for example, we're calling. If he bets $6.5+, we're folding. I think the average river aggression in no-limit holdem is something like 21%. If that's the case, why would you think our opponent is betting for sure, and that betting range has enough bluffs? What bluffs do you think he's going to have here?

I'll get you started KsQs, AsQs, AsKs, AsJs, QJs (2 combos)... that's 6 combos of bluffs. We have at least 35 value bet combos. What else do you want to add?

I'll try to reply in depth to this when I'm not at work but to be clear! I never said 3bet for information. It's for Value. We only 3 bet for value or as a bluff. And jacks are for value. I also hate the expression or the concept for information so I obviously didn't make that clear sorry.

Also, I'm not saying if we call turn we can't fold river but that river card is really the best we can hope for.
To be fair I would think villain could have AKo in his range